Duck curve

In some energy markets, daily peak demand occurs after sunset, when solar power is no longer available. In locations where a substantial amount of solar electric capacity has been installed, the amount of power that must be generated from sources other than solar or wind displays a rapid increase around sunset and peaks in the mid-evening hours, producing a graph that resembles the silhouette of a duck.{{cite web |first=Paul |last=Denholm |first2=Matthew |last2=O'Connell |first3=Gregory |last3=Brinkman |first4=Jennie |last4=Jorgenson |id=NREL/TP-6A20-65023 |title=Overgeneration from Solar Energy in California: A Field Guide to the Duck Chart |date=November 2015 |work= |publisher=National Renewable Energy Laboratory |url=https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65023.pdf}}{{cite web|url= http://insideenergy.org/2014/10/02/ie-questions-why-is-california-trying-to-behead-the-duck/ |title=IE Questions: Why Is California Trying To Behead The Duck? |first=Jordan |last=Wirfs-Brock |date=2 October 2014|work=Inside Energy |accessdate= 29 October 2016}} In Hawaii, significant adoption of solar generation has led to the more pronounced curve known as the Nessie curve.{{cite web |url=http://theenergycollective.com/jeffstjohn/2188461/charting-hawaiis-spectacular-solar-growth |title=Charting Hawaii's Spectacular Solar Growth |accessdate=2015-02-04 |work=The Energy Collective |archive-date=3 July 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180703162327/http://theenergycollective.com/jeffstjohn/2188461/charting-hawaiis-spectacular-solar-growth |url-status=dead }}{{cite web|url= https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/hawaiis-solar-grid-landscape-and-the-nessie-curve |title=Hawaii's Solar-Grid Landscape and the 'Nessie Curve'|date=10 February 2014 |accessdate=10 January 2017}}

Without any form of energy storage, after times of high solar generation, power companies must rapidly increase other forms of power generation around the time of sunset to compensate for the loss of solar generation, a major concern for grid operators where there is rapid growth of photovoltaics.{{cite web|title=What the Duck Curve Tells Us About Managing A Green Grid|url= https://www.caiso.com/Documents/FlexibleResourcesHelpRenewables_FastFacts.pdf |website=caiso.com |publisher=California ISO|accessdate=29 April 2015}} Storage such as dammed hydropower can fix these issues if it can be implemented.{{Cite web |last=Wallach |first=Omri |date=2022-04-04 |title=The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained |url=https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/the-solar-power-duck-curve-explained/ |access-date=2022-12-28 |website=Elements by Visual Capitalist |language=en-US}} Short term use batteries, at a large enough scale of use, can help to flatten the duck curve and prevent generator use fluctuation and can help to maintain voltage profile.{{cite web|last1=Lazar|first1=Jim |title=Teaching the "Duck" to Fly|url=http://www.ripuc.ri.gov/eventsactions/docket/4443-EERMC-Presentation2_5-8-14.pdf |publisher=RAP|accessdate=29 April 2015}}

Methods for coping with the rapid increase in demand at sunset reflected in the duck curve, which becomes more serious as the penetration of solar generation grows, include:

• Installing more dispatchable generation
• Orienting some solar collectors toward the west to maximize generation near sunset.{{cite web |last1=Vorrath |first1=Sophie |title=Solar tariffs reshaped to favour batteries, EVs, and west-facing panels |url=https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-tariffs-reshaped-to-favour-batteries-evs-and-west-facing-panels-85015/ |website=RenewEconomy |language=en-AU |date=30 August 2020 |quote=even out the "solar duck curve". . install batteries and west-facing panels, which helps stretch solar generation into the afternoon-evening peak. }}
• Energy storage including:
• Pumped-storage hydroelectricity
• Battery storage power stations These can be colocated with solar power plants that are designed with DC capacity above their AC rating,{{cite web |url=https://qz.com/1950381/the-case-for-producing-way-more-solar-energy-than-we-need/ |title=It's time to start wasting solar energy |date=29 December 2020 |access-date=31 December 2020}} or at other suitable sites, including old fossil fuel plants so as to utilize their existing transmission infrastructure (e.g. the Moss Landing Power Plant).
• Solar thermal energy with thermal energy storage
• Ice storage air conditioning
• Use of batteries in electric vehicles for temporary storage (vehicle-to-grid){{cite web |last1=Pyper |first1=Julia |title=Electric Ridesharing Benefits the Grid, and EVgo Has the Data to Prove It |url=https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/electric-ridesharing-benefit-the-grid-evgo |website=www.greentechmedia.com |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20201018043438/https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/electric-ridesharing-benefit-the-grid-evgo |archivedate=18 October 2020 |date=9 May 2019 |quote=By charging up in the middle of the day, LDV fleets on EVgo's network also help to address the duck curve — where midday net load drops, driven by lots of solar flooding onto the grid |url-status=live}}
• Power-to-X, storing surplus electricity production in chemical form, e.g. hydrogen
• Green hydrogen production from water during the peak hours of Solar production
• Energy demand management, including:
• Time-of-use pricing (TOU) and real-time pricing
• Smart grid technology
• Electric power transmission from the west where the sun is shining to the east where the sun is low or set

A major challenge is deploying mitigating capacity at a rate that keeps up with the growth of solar energy production. The effects of the duck curve have happened faster than anticipated.{{cite web|url= https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-california-duck-curve-is-real-and-bigger-than-expected |title=The California Duck Curve Is Real, and Bigger Than Expected|date=3 November 2016 |accessdate=10 January 2017}}

File:California average hourly electricity generation from natural gas, solar energy, and all other sources in selected months of 2020 (50705225643).png

The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has been monitoring and analyzing the Duck Curve and its future expectations for about a half a century now and their biggest finding is the growing gap between morning and evening hours prices relative to midday hours prices. According to their 2016 study, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, found that the wholesale energy market prices over the past six months during the 5 pm to 8 pm period (the "neck" of the duck) have increased to $60 per megawatt-hour, compared to about $35 per megawatt-hour in the same time frame in 2016. However, on the other side they have measured a drastic decrease in the midday prices, nearing $15 per megawatt-hour.{{update inline|date=January 2022|reason=prices have changed since 2016}} These high peaks and deep valleys are only showing continued trends of going further apart making this Duck Curve even more prevalent as renewable energy production continues to grow.{{cite web |title=2021 Summer Loads and Resources Assessment |url=http://www.caiso.com/Documents/2021-Summer-Loads-and-Resources-Assessment.pdf#search=Duck%20curve |publisher=California ISO |page=36 |date=23 May 2021 |quote=The growing amount of photovoltaic solar generation that is interconnected to the ISO grid continues to change the ISO’s net load profile and creates more challenges and uncertainty for ISO operations. The result is a constantly increasing ramping requirement, significantly more than what has been required from the generat ion fleet in the past, both upward and downward. Furthermore, solar generation does not provide significant power at the hours ending 19:00 to 21:00, which leads to reliance on gas and other non-solar generation after sunset. The continuing decline in dispatchable generation in the ISO as dispatchable units retire is beginning to challenge the ISO system’s ability to meet net peak demand after sunset and flexible capacity requirements. |url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210512184733/http://www.caiso.com/Documents/2021-Summer-Loads-and-Resources-Assessment.pdf |archive-date=12 May 2021 }}

A crucial part of this curve comes from the net load ("the difference between expected load and anticipated electricity production from the range of renewable energy sources"). In certain times of the year (namely spring and summer), the curves create a "belly" appearance in the midday that then drastically increases portraying an "arch" similar to the neck of a duck, consequently the name "The Duck Chart.{{Cite news|url=https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/eia-charts-californias-real-and-growing-duck-curve |title=EIA Data Reveals California's Real and Growing Duck Curve|access-date=2017-12-01}}" This "neck" represents a ramp speed of between 10 and 17 GW in 3 hours (afternoon) in 2020 which has to be supplied by flexible generation.{{cite web |title=Final Flexible Capacity Needs Assessment for 2022 |url=http://www.caiso.com/InitiativeDocuments/Final2022FlexibleCapacityNeedsAssessment.pdf#search=Duck |publisher=California ISO |pages=9–10 |date=14 May 2021 |url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220107005315/http://www.caiso.com/InitiativeDocuments/Final2022FlexibleCapacityNeedsAssessment.pdf |archive-date=7 January 2022 }} During the midday, large amounts of solar energy are created, which partially contributes to lower demand for additional electricity.{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21717365-wind-and-solar-energy-are-disrupting-century-old-model-providing-electricity-what-will |title=A world turned upside down|newspaper=The Economist|access-date=2017-12-01|language=en}} Curtailment impacts the curve. Increasing battery storage can mitigate the issues of solar abundance during the day. When excess solar energy is stored during the day and used in the evening, the price disparity between inexpensive midday and expensive evening energy can be reduced. Enough total solar technology exists to power the world, but there is a current lack of infrastructure to store solar energy for later use. An oversupply of energy during low demand coupled with a lack of supply during high demand explains the large disparity between midday and evening energy prices. {{as of|2022}}, up to 6 GWh is shifted per day from low price to high price periods.{{cite web |last1=Murray |first1=Cameron |title=Battery storage load shifting up to 6GWh a day on CAISO grid; operator eyes SoC-linked prices |url=https://www.energy-storage.news/battery-storage-load-shifting-up-to-6gwh-a-day-on-caiso-grid-operator-eyes-soc-linked-prices/ |website=Energy Storage News |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20220429203519/https://www.energy-storage.news/battery-storage-load-shifting-up-to-6gwh-a-day-on-caiso-grid-operator-eyes-soc-linked-prices/ |archive-date=29 April 2022 |date=13 April 2022 |url-status=live}}

• Dunkelflaute

{{reflist}}

• [http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2015/ph240/burnett2/ Energy Storage and the California "Duck Curve"]

Category:Economics curves

Category:Electric power generation

Category:Solar energy