Hwasong-10

{{short description|North Korean mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile}}

{{Use dmy dates|date=February 2025}}

{{hatnote|'Musudan' redirects here. For its namesake headland, see Musu Dan.}}

{{Infobox weapon

|is_missile=yes

|name=Hwasong-10

|origin= North Korea

|image=Hwasong-10.png

|image_size=50

|alt=

|caption=Artist rendition of the missile

|type=Intermediate-range ballistic missile

|used_by=Korean People's Army Strategic Force
Iran (possible)

|manufacturer= North Korea

|unit_cost=

|propellant=Hypergolic combination of unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) as fuel, and nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) as oxidizer{{cite report |url=https://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR1268.html |title=Characterizing the North Korean Nuclear Missile Threat |author=Markus Schiller |publisher=RAND Corporation |id=TR-1268-TSF |isbn=978-0-8330-7621-2 |year=2012 |access-date=19 January 2013}}

|production_date=

|service=Successful test on 22 June 2016{{Cite web |date=2016-06-23|title=Kim Jong Un Guides Test-fire of SSM Hwasong-10|url=http://kcna.co.jp/item/2016/201606/news23/20160623-01ee.html|access-date=2025-01-18 |website=Korean Central News Agency}}

|engine=Liquid-propellant rocket (same or derived from R-27 R-29)

|engine_power=

|weight=

|length={{cvt|12|m|ft|abbr=on}}

|height=

|diameter={{cvt|1.5|m|ft|abbr=on}}

|wingspan=

|speed=

|vehicle_range={{cvt|2500-4000|km|abbr=on}} (estimated){{cite web|url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130408/facts-about-north-koreas-musudan-missile |title=Facts about North Korea's Musudan missile |website=GlobalPost |date=8 April 2013 |access-date=10 April 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130524160133/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130408/facts-about-north-koreas-musudan-missile|archive-date=24 May 2013|quote=IHS Jane's puts the estimated range at anywhere between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometres ... potential payload size has been put at 1.0-1.25 tonnes. |url-status=dead}}{{Cite web|author=Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee |date=June 2017|title=Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat|url=https://www.nasic.af.mil/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=F2VLcKSmCTE%3d&portalid=19|access-date=2025-02-08 |website= National Air and Space Intelligence Center}}

|ceiling=

|altitude=

|filling=

|filling_weight={{cvt|500-1250|kg|abbr=on}} (estimated){{cite web|date=2016-08-08|url=https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/musudan/|title=BM-25 Musudan (Hwasong-10)|website=Missile Threat|access-date=18 August 2017}}

|guidance=Inertial guidance

|accuracy={{cvt|1600|m|ft|abbr=on}} circular error probable

|detonation=

|launch_platform= MAZ-based transporter erector launcher (TEL)

}}

{{

Infobox Korean name

|context=north

|title=Korean name

|headercolor=green

|hangul=《화성-10》형

|hanja={{linktext|火|星|十|型}}

|rr=Hwaseong-10 hyeong

|mr=Hwasŏng-10 hyŏng

}}

The Hwasong-10{{efn|Also known as BM-25 and Musudan ({{korean|hangul=무수단|hanja=舞水端|context=north}}).}} ({{Korean|hangul=《화성-10》형|hanja=火星 10型|lit=Mars Type 10|context=north}}) is a mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile developed by North Korea.

Description

Hwasong-10 resembles the shape of the Soviet Union's R-27 Zyb submarine-launched missile, but is slightly longer. It is based on the R-27, which uses a liquid-fueled 4D10 engine propelled by unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) and nitrogen tetroxide (NTO). These propellants are much more advanced than the kerosene compounds used in North Korea's Scuds and Hwasong-7 (Nodong) missiles. Once the fuel/oxidizer combination are fed into the missile, it could maintain a 'ready to launch' condition for several days, or even weeks, like the R-27 SLBM, in moderate ambient temperatures. A fueled Hwasong-10 would not have the structural strength to be safely land transported, so would have to be fueled at the launch site.

It was originally believed that the rocket motors of Hwasong-10 were the same as those within the second stage of the Taepodong-2, which North Korea unsuccessfully test fired in 2006.{{cite web|author=C. P. Vick|date=2000–2004|url=http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/images/taepo-dong-2.jpg|title=2nd 3rd Right Side|website=Global Security|access-date=18 August 2017}} However analysis of the Unha-3 launch, believed to be based on the Taepodong-2, showed that the second stage did not use the same fuel as the R-27, and is probably based on Hwasong-7 (Nodong) rocket technology.

Before its test flight, it was believed that there was a possibility that the Hwasong-10 would use the Nodong's kerosene and corrosion inhibited red fuming nitric acid (IRFNA) propellants, reducing the missile's range by about half.{{cite report |url=http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2012/05/Explaining_the_Musudan_Schiller_Schmucker_v1.2.pdf |title=Explaining the Musudan |author=Markus Schiller, Robert H. Schmucker |publisher=Arms Control Wonk |date=31 May 2012 |access-date=16 April 2013}} However, it is unlikely that North Korea uses IRFNA propellants which would reduce its range by about half, after the experts acknowledged that the 22 June 2016 test could have had a range of {{cvt|3150|km|abbr=on}} if the missile was not launched in the lofted trajectory.{{Cite web|date=10 March 2023|author=Emmanuelle Maitre|title=Le Musudan : quels progrès techniques et stratégiques pour Pyongyang ?|trans-title=The Musudan: what technical and strategic progress for Pyongyang?|url=https://www.frstrategie.org/programmes/observatoire-de-la-dissuasion/musudan-quels-progres-techniques-strategiques-pour-pyongyang-2017|access-date=2025-02-08|website=Foundation for Strategic Research|language=fr}}

It was also decided that, as the Korean People's Army's MAZ-547A/MAZ-7916 transporter erector launcher could carry 20 tonnes, and the R-27 Zyb was only 14.2 tonnes, the R-27 Zyb's fuel/oxidizer tank could be extended by approximately {{cvt|2|m|ft|abbr=on}}.

Assuming a range of {{cvt|3200|km|abbr=on}}, the Hwasong-10 could hit any target in East Asia (including US military bases in Guam and Okinawa).{{Cite web|author1= Anthony H. Cordesman|author2=Aaron Lin |date=June 2015|title=The Changing Military Balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia|url=https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/150615_Cordesman_NortheastAsiaMilBalance_Web.pdf|access-date=2025-02-08 |website= Center for Strategic and International Studies}} The North Korean inventory of the missile is less than 50 launchers.

History

In the mid-1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea invited the Makeyev Design Bureau's ballistic missile designers and engineers to develop this missile, based on the R-27 Zyb. In 1992, a large contract between Korea Yon’gwang Trading Company and Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau of Miass, Russia was signed. The agreement stated that Russian engineers would go to the DPRK and assist in the development of the Zyb Space Launch Vehicle (SLV).

Hwasong-10 was first revealed to the international community in a military parade on 10 October 2010 celebrating the Workers' Party of Korea's 65th anniversary, although experts believe these were mock-ups of the missile.

In April 2013, North Korea was reported to deploy two Hwasong-10 to Wonsan in preparation for a test-fire. Two moblie launchers were reported to continuously moved in and out of a facility. Four to five wheeled vehicles, appears to be TELs, were also spotted to travel around South Hamgyong Province. These actions aimed at making difficult to US and South Korea.{{Cite web|date=2013-04-11|author=An Bình|title=Triều Tiên liên tục di chuyển tên lửa, radar Mỹ sẵn sàng “trực chiến”|trans-title=North Korea continues to move missiles, US radar is ready for "combat"|url=https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/trieu-tien-lien-tuc-di-chuyen-ten-lua-radar-my-san-sang-truc-chien-1366105636.htm|access-date=2025-02-09|website=Dân trí|language=vi}} A month later, North Korea removed two missiles from launchers.{{Cite web|date=2013-05-07|author=Lệ Chi|title=CHDCND Triều Tiên tháo dỡ tên lửa khỏi bệ phóng|trans-title=DPRK removed missile from launcher|url=https://vov.vn/the-gioi/chdcnd-trieu-tien-thao-do-ten-lua-khoi-be-phong-260720.vov|access-date=2025-02-09|website=Voice of Vietnam|language=vi}}

Since April 2016, the Hwasong-10 has been tested a number of times, with two apparent partial successes and a number of failures. In May 2017, North Korea successfully tested a new missile, the Hwasong-12, with a similar range to the Hwasong-10. It had been displayed in the April 2017 military parade on the Hwasong-10 mobile launcher, and the Hwasong-12 may be intended to replace the Hwasong-10 which has been shown unreliable during its test programme.{{cite web|author=John Schilling|url=http://38north.org/2017/05/jschilling051417/ |title=North Korea's Latest Missile Test: Advancing towards an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) While Avoiding US Military Action |website=38 North |date=14 May 2017 |access-date=15 May 2017}}{{cite news |url=https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/north-koreas-new-intermediate-range-ballistic-missile-the-hwasong-12-first-takeaways/ |title=North Korea's New Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile, the Hwasong-12: First Takeaways |last=Panda |first=Ankit |publisher=The Diplomat |date=15 May 2017 |access-date=15 May 2017}} The Hwasong-10 was not shown in the February 2018 military parade, suggesting that the design had not been deployed.{{cite news |url=https://www.38north.org/2018/02/melleman020818/ |title=North Korea's Army Day Military Parade: One New Missile System Unveiled |last=Elleman |first=Michael |publisher=U.S.-Korea Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies |work=38 North |date=8 February 2018 |access-date=9 February 2018}}

List of Hwasong-10 tests

class="wikitable"
scope="col" | Attemptscope="col" | Datescope="col" | Locationscope="col" | Pre-launch announcement / detectionscope="col" | Outcomescope="col" | Additional notes
scope="row" | 1

| 15 April 2016 5:30 am Pyongyang Standard Time (PST)

| Wonsan

| South Korea detected one or two Hwasong-10 missile(s) near Wonsan a day before the test.{{Cite web|author=JH Ahn|title=North Korea deploys missile for possible launch: Yonhap|url=https://www.nknews.org/2016/04/north-korea-deploys-missile-for-possible-launch-yonhap/|access-date=2025-02-08|website=NK News|date=14 April 2016}}

| {{Failure}}

| Both United States and South Korea "detected and tracked" the missile followed by the confirmation of launch failure. South Korea further claims the missile in this test deviated from a "normal" trajectory.{{Cite news|author=Anna Fifield|title=North Korea's missile launch has failed, South's military says

|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-koreas-missile-has-failed-officials-from-south-say/2016/04/14/8eb2ce53-bc38-40d0-9013-5655bed26764_story.html|access-date=2025-02-08|newspaper=The Washington Post|date=14 April 2016}}

North Korea kept silent on the test despite the day is the 104th anniversary of the birthday of Kim Il Sung.

scope="row" | 2

| 28 April 2016 6:10{{nbsp}}am PST

|Northeastern coast

| None

| {{Failure}}

| The missile crashed a few seconds after liftoff. North Korea kept silent on the test.{{Cite web|author=Hyung-Jin Kim|title=North Korea's missile launch has failed, South's military says

|url=https://apnews.com/general-news-c571f61732e744bcafaea3696b31996a|access-date=2025-02-08|website=Associated Press|date=29 April 2016}}{{Cite web|author1=Euan McKirdy|author2= Paula Hancocks|title=North Korea launches two midrange missiles; both tests fail|url=https://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/28/asia/north-korea-failed-missile-launch|access-date=2025-02-08|website=CNN|date=29 April 2016}}

scope="row" | 3

| 28 April 2016 6:56{{nbsp}}pm PST

| Wonsan

| None

| {{Failure}}

| According to United States sources, the missiles went an estimated {{cvt|200|m|ft|abbr=on}} off the launchpad. North Korea kept silent on the test.

scope="row" | 4

| 31 May 2016 5:20{{nbsp}}am PST

|Wonsan

| None

| {{Failure}}

| Missile exploded on site. North Korea kept silent on the test.{{cite news |url=https://defense-update.com/20160531_musudan-2.html |title=North Korean Musudan IRBM Failed - Again |author=Tamir Eshel |publisher=Defense Update |date=31 May 2016 |access-date=23 June 2016}}

scope="row" | 5

| 22 June 2016 5:58{{nbsp}}am PST

| Wonsan

| rowspan="2"|A day before the test, South Korea spotted a Hwasong-10 near east coast.{{Cite web|author=John G. Grisafi |title=North Korea deploys Musudan missile near east coast|url=https://www.nknews.org/2016/06/north-korea-deploys-musudan-missile-near-east-coast/|access-date=2025-02-08|website=NK News|date=21 June 2016}}

| {{Partial|Success (North Korea)
Failure (South Korea and United States}}

| The missile crashed at {{cvt|150|km|abbr=on}} away from the site. It is the first successful Hwasong-10 test that safely launched from the launch site, however, the missile still exploded in midair.{{cite web|date=2016-06-22|url=https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20160622000554315|title=(3rd LD) N. Korea botches fifth Musudan missile test-launch|website=Yonhap News Agency|access-date=2025-02-08}}{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/northkorea-missiles-usa-idUSL1N19E00S|title=North Korean missiles fall in Sea of Japan- Pentagon|date=22 June 2016|access-date=18 August 2017|newspaper=Reuters}} It is possible that North Korea could have launched the missile at a normal angle, and intentionally terminated its flight early to keep it from overflying Japan at {{cvt|150|km|abbr=on}}.{{cite web|date=2016-06-29|url=https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/06/485_208138.html|title=N. Korea's fifth Musudan test might not have been failure: US expert|website=The Korea Times|access-date=2025-02-08}}

scope="row" | 6

| 22 June 2016 5:58{{nbsp}}am PST

| Wonsan

| {{Partial|Success (North Korea)
Partial success (South Korea and United States)}}

|According to South Korea, US and Japan, the missile achieved {{cvt|1000|km|abbr=on}} apogee, flew {{cvt|400|km|abbr=on}} and landed in Sea of Japan.{{cite web|date=2016-06-22|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36595113|title=North Korea missiles 'a serious threat' after new tests|website=BBC News|access-date=2025-02-09}}

North Korea hailed the twin test in 22 June 2016 as a 'complete success' in the state media. North Korea also stated that the missile accurately landed in the targeted waters {{cvt|400|km|abbr=on}} away after flying to the maximum altitude of {{cvt|1413.6|km|abbr=on}} along the planned flight orbit. The missile was officially named as Hwasong-10. The missile appears to be intended to fly at a steeper angle than normal to avoid overflying Japanese airspace, rather than a normal trajectory, in which the missile could reach its maximum range of {{cvt|3500|km|abbr=on}} or more.{{cite web|author=Ankit Panda|date=2016-06-23|url=https://thediplomat.com/2016/06/north-koreas-musudan-missile-test-actually-succeeded-what-now/|title=North Korea's Musudan Missile Test Actually Succeeded. What Now?|website=The Diplomat|access-date=2025-02-08}}

scope="row" | 7 (Alleged)

| 15 October 2016 12:03{{nbsp}}pm PST

| Kusong

| None

| {{Failure}}

| rowspan="2"| Initially, the US military identified these tests as failed tests of Hwasong-10, without specifying details.{{Cite web|title=North Korea conducted failed ballistic missile test, US military says|date=2016-10-15|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/15/north-korea-failed-ballistic-missile-test-us-military

|access-date=2025-02-08|website=The Guardian}}{{Cite web|title=US military detects 'failed ballistic missile launch' in North Korea after state media vows revenge for 'hostile acts'|date=2016-10-15|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-ballistic-missiles-failed-launch-us-military-target-revenge-kim-jongun-capability-nuclear-a7363711.html|access-date=2025-02-08|website=The Independent}}{{Cite web|title=(LEAD) N. Korea's launch of Musudan missile ends in failure again: military|date=2016-10-20|url=https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20161020003200315|access-date=2025-02-08|website=Yonhap News Agency}} North Korea kept silent on these reports. Five days after the first test, a second launch took place just hours before the start of the final 2016 US presidential election debate.

It is possible that the missile using for the tests could be Hwasong-13 (KN-08), Pukguksong-2 or Hwasong-12.{{Cite news|author=Anna Fifield|title=Did North Korea just test missiles capable of hitting the U.S.? Maybe.|date=2016-10-26|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/did-north-korea-just-test-missiles-capable-of-hitting-the-us-maybe/2016/10/26/984e8a21-e6a7-4689-81e0-21d7d25c302f_story.html|access-date=2025-02-08|newspaper=The Washington Post}}{{Cite web|title=(LEAD) N. Korea's failed missile tests could have involved KN-08: U.S. expert|date=2016-10-27|url=https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20161027000451315.html|access-date=2025-02-08|website=Yonhap News Agency}}{{cite web|url=https://planet4589.org/space/gcat/data/lfam/Hwasong-12|title=Tests of Hwasong-12 missile family|author=Jonathan McDowell|publisher=Planet4589.org|access-date=2025-01-04|language=english}}{{Cite web|title=The CNS North Korea Missile Test Database|url=https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/north_korea_missile_test_database.xlsx|access-date=2025-02-09|website=Nuclear Threat Initiative}}

scope="row" | 8 (Alleged)

| 20 October 2016 7:00{{nbsp}}am PST

| Kusong

| None

| {{Failure}}

Operators

=Current operators=

  • {{flag|North Korea}}: According to one source, more than 200;{{cite web|author=Richard Finney|date=2010-10-13|url=https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/missiles-10132010181348.html|title=North's Missiles Raise Concerns|website=Radio Free Asia|access-date=2025-02-08}} other source claims 12 deployed.{{cite web|date=2010-10-13|url=http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20101013_1452.php|title=North Korea Rolls Out Ballistic Missiles|website=Global Security Newswire|access-date=2025-02-08|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101017063701/http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20101013_1452.php|archive-date=2010-10-17}} 16 were seen at once during the 10 October 2010 military parade, although experts contacted by the Washington Post believed these were mock-ups of the missile.{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/30/AR2010113006781.html |title=Experts question North Korea-Iran missile link from WikiLeaks document release |author=John Pomfret and Walter Pincus |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=1 December 2010 |access-date=13 June 2012}}

=Suspected operators=

  • {{flag|Iran}}: 19, according to a leaked, classified U.S. State Department cable.{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missiles.html?_r=1|title=Iran Fortifies Its Arsenal With the Aid of North Korea|author=William J. Broad|author2=James Glanz|author3=David E. Sanger|newspaper=The New York Times|date=28 November 2010|access-date=28 November 2010| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20110527003655/http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missiles.html?_r=1| archive-date=May 27, 2011| url-status= live}} The Khorramshahr, which was first publicly displayed on 22 September 2017, is likely derived from Hwasong-10.{{cite web|date=2017-09-29|url=https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/khorramshahr/|title=Khorramshahr|website=Missile Threat|access-date=18 August 2017}}

See also

Notes

{{Notelist|group=efn}}

References

{{reflist|30em}}