Post-election pendulum for the 2018 Victorian state election
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{{Use dmy dates|date=April 2022}}
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{{one source|date=December 2018}}
{{primary sources|date=December 2018}}
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The Labor party won the 2018 state election by winning 55 of the 88 lower house seats. The coalition won 27 seats (Liberal 21 and Nationals 6) while the Greens and independents won 3 each.
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."{{Cite web|url=https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/summary.html#district|title=State Election 2018 - Summary - Victorian Electoral Commission|website=www.vec.vic.gov.au|access-date=2018-12-11}}
Pendulum
The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
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| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"| Labor seats - 2018 |
| Seat
| Member | Party | Margin |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Marginal |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Bayswater
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Jackson Taylor | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|0.39% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Hawthorn
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|John Kennedy | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|0.42% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Nepean
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Chris Brayne | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|0.91% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Northcote
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Kat Theophanous | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|1.71% v GRN |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Mount Waverley
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Matt Fregon | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|1.85% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Box Hill
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Paul Hamer | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|2.11% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Bass
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Jordan Crugnale | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|2.39% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Ringwood
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Dustin Halse | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|2.82% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Burwood
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Will Fowles | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|3.31% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Melton
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Steve McGhie | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|4.29% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|South Barwon
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Darren Cheeseman | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|4.60% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Richmond
| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Richard Wynne | style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fdd;"|5.46% v GRN |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Fairly safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Geelong
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Christine Couzens | style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fcc;"|6.23% v IND |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Narre Warren South
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Gary Maas | style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fcc;"|6.90% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Pascoe Vale
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Lizzie Blandthorn | style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fcc;"|8.58% v IND |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Monbulk
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|James Merlino | style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fcc;"|8.60% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;" |Werribee
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;" |Tim Pallas | style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;" |ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fcc;" |8.78% v IND |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Eltham
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Vicki Ward | style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fcc;"|9.09% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Frankston
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Paul Edbrooke | style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fcc;"|9.74% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Narre Warren North
| style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|Luke Donnellan | style="text-align:left; background:#fcc;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fcc;"|9.76% |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Wendouree
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Juliana Addison | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|10.26% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Cranbourne
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Pauline Richards | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|10.98% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Bellarine
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Lisa Neville | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|11.45% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Bentleigh
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Nick Staikos | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|11.92% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Carrum
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Sonya Kilkenny | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|11.95% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Bendigo East
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Jacinta Allan | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|12.11% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Buninyong
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Michaela Settle | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|12.24% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Ivanhoe
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Anthony Carbines | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|12.36% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Niddrie
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Ben Carroll | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|12.59% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Mulgrave
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Daniel Andrews | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|12.71% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Mordialloc
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Tim Richardson | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|12.90% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Albert Park
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Martin Foley | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|13.13% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Macedon
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Mary-Anne Thomas | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|13.18% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Sunbury
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Josh Bull | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|14.33% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Altona
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Jill Hennessy | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|14.57% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Keysborough
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Martin Pakula | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|14.85% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Oakleigh
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Steve Dimopoulos | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|15.78% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Essendon
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Danny Pearson | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|15.86% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Yan Yean
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Danielle Green | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|17.03% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Bundoora
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Colin Brooks | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|17.42% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Clarinda
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Meng Heang Tak | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|17.43% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Sydenham
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Natalie Hutchins | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|17.86% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Tarneit
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Sarah Connolly | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|18.02% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Bendigo West
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Maree Edwards | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|18.55% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|Lara
| style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|John Eren | style="text-align:left; background:#fbb;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#fbb;"|19.14% |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Very safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Yuroke
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Ros Spence | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|20.26% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Preston
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Robin Scott | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|20.70% v GRN |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|St Albans
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Natalie Suleyman | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|21.54% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Williamstown
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Melissa Horne | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|22.07% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Dandenong
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Gabrielle Williams | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|23.93% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Mill Park
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Lily D'Ambrosio | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|24.9% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Kororoit
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Marlene Kairouz | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|25.65% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Thomastown
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Bronwyn Halfpenny | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|27.19% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Footscray
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Katie Hall | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|28.11% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Broadmeadows
| style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|Frank McGuire | style="text-align:left; background:#faa;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#faa;"|30.28% |
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| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Coalition seats - 2018 |
| Seat
| Member | Party | Margin |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"| Marginal |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Ripon
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Louise Staley | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|0.02% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Caulfield
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|David Southwick | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|0.27% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Sandringham
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Brad Rowswell | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|0.64% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Gembrook
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Brad Battin | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|0.79% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Hastings
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Neale Burgess | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|1.07% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Brighton
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|James Newbury | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|1.12% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Forest Hill
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Neil Angus | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|1.16% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Ferntree Gully
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Nick Wakeling | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|1.64% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Croydon
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|David Hodgett | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|2.12% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|South-West Coast
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Roma Britnell | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|2.31% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Eildon
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Cindy McLeish | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|2.44% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Benambra
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Bill Tilley | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|2.45% v IND |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Evelyn
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Bridget Vallence | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|2.65% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Warrandyte
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Ryan Smith | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|3.88% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Kew
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Tim Smith | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|4.78% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Mornington
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|David Morris | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|5.00% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Polwarth
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Richard Riordan | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|5.40% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Rowville
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Kim Wells | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|5.69% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Bulleen
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Matthew Guy | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|5.77% |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Fairly safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Malvern
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Michael O'Brien | style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#80d8f9;"|6.1% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Narracan
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Gary Blackwood | style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#80d8f9;"|7.26% |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|Ovens Valley
| style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|Tim McCurdy | style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#98ff44;"|12.63% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|Gippsland South
| style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|Danny O'Brien | style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#98ff44;"|15.33% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|Euroa
| style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|Steph Ryan | style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#98ff44;"|15.44% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|Gippsland East
| style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|Tim Bull | style="text-align:left; background:#98ff44;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#98ff44;"|17.59% |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Very safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#40c351;"|Lowan
| style="text-align:left; background:#40c351;"|Emma Kealy | style="text-align:left; background:#40c351;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#40c351;"|23.48% |
| style="text-align:left; background:#40c351;"|Murray Plains
| style="text-align:left; background:#40c351;"|Peter Walsh | style="text-align:left; background:#40c351;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#40c351;"|23.95% |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:gray;"|Crossbench seats - 2018 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|Mildura
| style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|Ali Cupper | style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|IND | style="text-align:center; background:#eee;"|0.34% v NAT |
| style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|Brunswick
| style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|Tim Read | style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|GRN | style="text-align:center; background:#33ff88;"|0.57% v ALP |
| style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|Melbourne
| style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|Ellen Sandell | style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|GRN | style="text-align:center; background:#33ff88;"|1.32% v ALP |
| style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|Morwell
| style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|Russell Northe | style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|IND | style="text-align:center; background:#eee;"|1.84% v ALP |
| style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|Shepparton
| style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|Suzanna Sheed | style="text-align:left; background:#eee;"|IND | style="text-align:center; background:#eee;"|5.3% v LIB |
| style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|Prahran
| style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|Sam Hibbins | style="text-align:left; background:#33ff88;"|GRN | style="text-align:center; background:#33ff88;"|7.54% v LIB |
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