Three Horizons
File:The Three Horizons framework.png
Three Horizons (or 3H) is a framework and method for futures studies and practice, created by Anthony Hodgson, Andrew Curry, Graham Leicester, Bill Sharpe, Andrew Lyon and Ioan Fazey.{{Cite journal |last1=Sharpe |first1=Bill |last2=Hodgson |first2=Anthony |last3=Leicester |first3=Graham |last4=Lyon |first4=Andrew |last5=Fazey |first5=Ioan |date=2016-06-28 |title=Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation |url=https://ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss2/art47/ |journal=Ecology and Society |language=en |volume=21 |issue=2 |doi=10.5751/ES-08388-210247 |issn=1708-3087}} It presents a picture of change in a given system as an interplay of three horizons. Horizon 1 (H1) is the currently dominant but failing system that declines over time as it loses its fit with a changing environment. Horizon 3 (H3) is the envisioned desired future that is aligned to the changing environment. Horizon 2 (H2) is a turbulent intermediate space of innovations, some of which are 'captured' by H1, prop it up and extend its lifespan (so-called 'H2-' innovations), and some of which are genuinely disruptive and create space for a radically different kind of system to emerge ('H2+' innovations). The framework also illustrates the existence of 'pockets of the future in the present': niche examples of actors and systems working in a radically different way to the mainstream, which already embody H3 values. In addition, some aspects of H1 will remain valuable in the desired future.
{{Futures studies}}
3H is commonly used in workshop settings to help organisations and actors create strategies for transformational change (i.e. fundamental change that shifts underlying values and worldviews, rather than more superficial kinds of change), often in order to adapt to wider trends and crises.
History
3H was created in 2006 from an adaptation of McKinsey & Company's 'three horizons of growth' framework.{{Cite journal |last1=Curry|first1=Andrew|last2=Hodgson|first2=Anthony|date=2008|title=Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy|url=https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2008-2/vol-13-no-1-august/articles/seeing-in-multiple-horizons-connecting-futures-to-strategy/|journal=Journal of Futures Studies |volume=13|issue=1|language=en-US}} A paper describing the 3H framework in detail was published in 2016 in the journal Ecology & Society.
Use examples
3H has been used by various organisations around the world, including the United Nations Development Programme, UNICEF, the UK Government's [https://openpolicy.blog.gov.uk/ Policy Lab], Johnson & Johnson Foundation, [https://www.h3uni.org/ H3Uni], International Futures Forum, the [https://ieac.global/ International Evaluation Academy], the University of York, [https://fixourfood.org/ FixOurFood], Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, Natural Resources Wales, Chatham House, Stockholm Resilience Centre, [https://leadersquest.org/ Leaders' Quest], [https://volans.com/ Volans], [https://soif.org.uk/ School of International Futures], [https://futurestewards.com/ Future Stewards], [https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/system/race-to-zero/ Race to Zero], [https://www.globaloptimism.com/ Global Optimism], [https://www.metabolic.nl/ Metabolic], [https://www.systemiq.earth/ Systemiq], Forum for the Future, [https://www.thirtypercy.org/ Thirty Percy], Stellenbosch University’s [https://www0.sun.ac.za/cst/ Centre for Sustainability Transitions], [https://www.impactamplified.co.uk/ Impact Amplified], HES-SO Valais-Wallis, and [https://www.bouncebeyond.global/ Bounce Beyond].{{Cite web |title=Three Horizons Library |url=https://www.impactamplified.co.uk/threehorizons/ |access-date=2025-02-25 |website=Impact Amplified |language=en-US}} Impact Amplified lists 3H use examples in its 'Three Horizons Use Case Library'.
Contexts in which 3H has been used include:
- '[Engaging] young people from around the world in a foresight process to identify and support youth-led climate breakthroughs'
- Identifying priority domains of action for transforming towards a regenerative food system in Yorkshire{{Cite web |title=Three Horizons to support systems change |url=https://fixourfood.org/what-we-do/our-activities/3-horizons-to-support-systems-change/ |access-date=2024-10-04 |website=Fix Our Food |language=en-GB}}
- Exploring desired urban futures in a number of cities around the world{{Cite journal |last1=Bina |first1=O. |last2=Baptista |first2=M. D. |last3=Pereira |first3=M. M. |last4=Inch |first4=A. |last5=Falanga |first5=R. |last6=Alegría |first6=V. |last7=Caquimbo-Salazar |first7=S. |last8=Duarte |first8=D. H. S. |last9=Mercado |first9=G. |last10=Valenta |first10=A. T. |last11=Vásquez |first11=A. |last12=Verellen |first12=T. |date=2024-05-01 |title=Exploring desired urban futures: the transformative potential of a nature-based approach |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000454 |journal=Futures |volume=159 |pages=103362 |doi=10.1016/j.futures.2024.103362 |issn=0016-3287|hdl=10451/64349 |hdl-access=free }}
- Identifying actions to increase coastal community resilience against environmental shocks in Valiathura, India{{Cite journal |last1=Matovu |first1=Baker |last2=Alkoyak-Yildiz |first2=Meltem |last3=Lukambagire |first3=Isaac |last4=Etta |first4=Linda A. |last5=Bbira |first5=Yasin |last6=Nuwategeka |first6=Expedito |date=2024-02-09 |title=Using a Systems Thinking Approach to Increase Coastal Community Resilience against Environmental Shocks: A Case Study of Valiathura Coastal Area, India |url=https://acta.urk.edu.pl/Using-a-Systems-Thinking-Approach-to-Increase-Coastal-Community-Resilience-against,176121,0,2.html |journal=Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus |language=english |volume=23 |issue=1 |pages=3–18 |doi=10.15576/ASP.FC/2024.23.1.01 |issn=1644-0765|doi-access=free }}
- Drawing on local ecological knowledge to identify adaptation pathways to reduce wildfire risk in Montseny, Catalonia{{Cite journal |last1=Uyttewaal |first1=Kathleen |last2=Stoof |first2=Cathelijne R. |last3=Canaleta |first3=Guillem |last4=Cifre-Sabater |first4=Maria |last5=Langer |first5=E. R. (Lisa) |last6=Ludwig |first6=Fulco |last7=Kroeze |first7=Carolien |last8=Moran |first8=Pepa |last9=Ottolini |first9=Isabeau |last10=Prat-Guitart |first10=Núria |date=2024-10-01 |title=Uplifting local ecological knowledge as part of adaptation pathways to wildfire risk reduction: A case study in Montseny, Catalonia (Spain) |journal=Ambio |language=en |volume=53 |issue=10 |pages=1433–1453 |doi=10.1007/s13280-024-02030-7 |issn=1654-7209 |pmc=11383912 |pmid=38795281|bibcode=2024Ambio..53.1433U }}
- Exploring the future of sport and recreation in New Zealand{{Cite web |date=2024-08-05 |title=The Future of Sport and Recreation in New Zealand * Journal of Futures Studies |url=https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2023-2/vol-28-no-1-september-2023/the-future-of-sport-and-recreation-in-new-zealand/ |access-date=2024-10-04 |website=Journal of Futures Studies |language=en-US}}
- Exploring the future of geoscience{{Cite journal |last1=Stewart |first1=Iain |last2=Capello |first2=Maria Angela |last3=Mouri |first3=Hassina |last4=Mhopjeni |first4=Kombada |last5=Raji |first5=Munira |date=2023-09-06 |title=Three Horizons for Future Geoscience |journal=Earth Science, Systems and Society |language=English |volume=3 |pages=10079 |doi=10.3389/esss.2023.10079 |doi-access=free |issn=2634-730X}}