I heard that the last time we had the same level of greenhouse gases was some 500 million years ago, and the sea level was then several hundred feet above what it is now. I checked the sea level article, which led me to sequence stratigraphy, but I must admit, I don’t understand that article well enough to get that information. The whole earth crust is continuously in motion, and some of the highest mountains contain sediments from the bottom of the sea. What does it tell us about the sea level 500 million years ago if we find sediments from what was 10,000 feet below sea level then 10,000 feet above sea level now? Mary Moor (talk) 02:03, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
:That article makes precious little sense to me as well, but it appears to be mostly about methods for oil prospecting. I'm also not an expert (sad but true, I'm related to a sad number of them and they would all laugh at my pathetic attempt at a response), but rocks that are under water for extended periods are different than those that are above water. Fossils are the obvious difference (very few cnidarians on land, for example), but there are chemical and physical features as well. If you have a network of points, you can create a map from dot to dot and from known rates of continental drift, and you can give an estimate of where the land was and where the sea was. Just a guess. SDY (talk) 03:25, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
::True - but the OP's question is an entirely valid one - we know that over geological timescales, mountain ranges may be formed by upward buckling of the crust as two plates are forced together (kinda like you can create an upwards ruck in a rug by sliding one end of it towards the other). So just because you find fossils 10,000 feet up a mountain - even if they were fossils of horseshoe crabs or something that could only have formed at close to sea level - that doesn't prove that the ocean was once 10,000 feet deeper than it is now. The problem here is that you should be asking: "Sea level was then several hundred feet above what it is now...relative to what??" You can't just put a mark on the side of a mountain where the sea level was then - and take a tape measure and measure down to where sea level is now - because the mountain itself has moved up or down in the meantime. The only MEANINGFUL measure would be if you could say that "The radius of the earth measured to the surface of the ocean was several hundred feet greater than it is now"...but I very much doubt that's what's being measured here. So I don't know that this measurement is terribly meaningful when you are comparing ocean levels over geological timescales. BUT when we say that global warming might raise ocean levels by 7 meters (or whatever the current estimate is) - we're talking about this happening on timescales of perhaps just 50 years - and the continents, mountains and everything else won't have moved noticiably over that amount of time. So this measure of sea level rise is entirely meaningful...it tells us how many major cities - and even entire nations will vanish beneath the waves. SteveBaker (talk) 04:52, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
::::I wasn't clear. Something can be 10,000 feet up or down because the plates and rocks that make up the plates are moving. If you're talking 500mya, the [http://paleobiology.si.edu/burgess/cambrianWorld.html world] looks rather different (the map is a little ways down the page). If we assume that the mountains aren't drastically steeper (et cetera), if there is FOO% less dry land then there must be BAR% more ocean therefore there must be BAZ% more water and BAZ% more water equals QUX% feet deeper. SDY (talk) 05:54, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
:::::No - you were perfectly clear - but I don't see how you can make that equation without also knowing things like how the continents are depressed by the weight of the oceans on top of them (a not inconsiderable matter) - and also the extent of water locked up in the ice caps. I think these claims from so far in the past would be tough to substantiate. SteveBaker (talk) 13:52, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
:::I would say that the answer is that while some of the Earth's surface is uplifted or subsides, this is not true of all of the surface, at least over a time scale of 500 million years. So, the goal would then be to find a geologically stable area and measure historic sea levels there. StuRat (talk) 05:13, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
::::There is so much assumptions one is making when looking at sea level 500,000,000 years ago relative to today. Lets look at how these interfere with making a meaningful comparison.
::::#There was the same amount of water (including ice and atmospheric water) on earth 500m years ago... Possibly not true. Water comes and goes as it evaporates into space (slowly) and also as more water lands on earth on meteorites, and is released from volcanic activity. On human timescales (measured in the thousands or tens of thousands of years) such effects may not be noticable, but on the multi-million-year timescale, there is likely to be marked differences in the total amount of availible water on Earth.
::::#There was the same amount of availible space for that water to take up... Also possibly not true. The level of the oceans is due not only to the amount of water in them, but also their shape. Plate tectonics is a complex process, and depending on what the surface of the earth looked like; even assuming we had the same amount of total water to deal with (see above, we may not) then differences in sea level could be due almost entirely to differences in the shape of the surface of the earth; i.e. where the continents were, how low the ocean floors were in comparison to this, yada yada yada.
::::#That the level of greenhouse gases is the ONLY controling factor in the Earth's temperature... Also not true. The earth's temperature can also be affected by solar output, by surface albedo, by surface area of the oceans vs. land, by overall volcanic activity, etc. etc. These factors remain relatively constant on the short term, which is why measureing greenhouse gases and their effect on climate, say over the past 10,000 years, may be useful, it isn't going to be terribly useful over 500,000,000 years, since so many other parts of the system are changing that we can't necessarily say "The temperature the earth was 500,000,000 years ago should be the same as it is today solely because the greenhouse gases are at comparible levels"...
::::Throw all of this stuff in, and even if we COULD actually tell what the greenhouse gas levels and the climate of earth was really like to any detail (and I am not sure we can); it still doesn't mean we can make meaningful statements about sea level based on those statements. --Jayron32.talk.contribs 06:14, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
:::::The existence of one REALLY deep/wide ocean trench at one period in time - and it closing up or filling in some other period in time would erase any hope of appealing to any idea of the total volume of water remaining constant - and therefore the ratio of dry land to ocean surface giving you this answer. If you don't know how deep the ocean went below (or above) present day levels - you can't use the constant volume argument to say very much about overall levels. But unless you're talking about knowing the average radius of the earth measured at "sea level" half a billion years ago - to a rather impressive precision of a couple of hundred feet...you can't make this kind of statement in any meaningful way - no matter what fossil or geological evidence you have. SteveBaker (talk) 13:52, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
::::::Global sea levels changing by hundreds of feet is not very precise at all, we're talking a couple percent change or so in average ocean depth (current average is about 10k ft/3km). Not a huge change, but not impossible precision either. SDY (talk) 16:14, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
::It's much easier to find out if the sea-level was LOWER than present levels, because the evidence will exist in sedimentary rocks. But, it's complicated - the current height of the shoreline in the rock layer is not necessarily the original height of the water, because on geological timescales, rocks don't stay in the same place. The crust sort of flows and moves, and float up or down, convecting like a very very slow fluid, and occasionally collide catastrophically. Geologists can estimate how fast a vertical upwelling occurs by a number of techniques, ranging from physics-based modeling of material densities, to observations of broken layers and index fossils.
::Old shore-lines and rivers still exist in geological strata and are often CLEARLY visible. In some cases, they can be exposed by erosion, like the amazing canyons carved through the American west. We can also find old geological strata by digging (impractical but possible), or by subsurface imaging. [http://sepwww.stanford.edu/data/media/public/sep/prof/gee/iin/paper_html/node7.html#SECTION00130000000000000000 This excerpt], from Geophysical Estimation by Example, shows a marine sounding sonar used to survey the Sea of Galilee, and a bit of signal processing theory to help view what's happening: "The output of the roughening operator is an image, a filtered version of the depth, a filtered version of something real. Such filtering can enhance the appearance of interesting features. For example, scanning the shoreline of the roughened image (after missing data was filled), we see several ancient shorelines, now submerged." Nimur (talk) 15:46, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
At any rate, I'm not an expert, I'm just speculating on how it might have been done and I'm probably wrong. Note that the CO2 level was not claimed to be the cause of high sea levels, simply that it was associated with high sea levels. Chicken and egg possibilities abound, as does pure coincidence. I am, however, almost certain that it has nothing to do with sea level compared with radius of the earth, since that's such a tiny percentage (The stupendously deep Mariana trench is ~10k, radius of the earth is ~6,370 km) that I don't see how it could have been meaningfully measured, and the variability in shape of the earth's crust is such that not only is Kansas flatter than a pancake, but so is Mount Everest. [http://www.geotimes.org/oct03/NN_pancake.html Improbable research] is your friend. SDY (talk) 15:55, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
:In a recent paper (October 2008) Haq & Schutter [http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/322/5898/64] describe evidence for a major but gradual sea level rise throughout the Cambrian, culminating in the late Ordovician about 450 million years ago, also shown in this diagram [http://www.nhm.uio.no/norges/timescale/9b_Lower_Paleozoic_Sept08.pdf]. This rise is recorded by marine transgressions across previously non-marine strata in stable cratonic areas (much as suggested by StuRat above). How accurate such estimates are compared to present day values, that's another issue. Note that 500 million years ago is not associated with an unusually high sea level on these estimates, it happens to be about half way through a 100 Ma period of gradual rise. Mikenorton (talk) 16:04, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
To go back to the original question: As far as I know nobody seriously claims that "the last time we had the same level of greenhouse gases was some 500 million years ago". This seems to be a case of Chinese whispers. We have good evidence that CO2 is higher than during the last 800000 years, and we believe it to be higher than during the last 20 million years. Not a short while, but very different from 500 million years. James Hansen's somewhat famous quote is "The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today - which is what we expect later this century - sea levels were 25m higher." Hansen was talking about a period about 3 million years ago. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 16:34, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
: Thank you; it was indeed Chinese whispers. I think it originally comes from Field Notes from a Catastrophe, and I would have to get the book to see the actual numbers. But that was only the background for my question. I wanted to know how we even know how high the sea level was many years ago. The beautiful diagram Mikenorton showed us has three very different curves for the sea level, which could indicate that there is so little consensus among scientists as to render it practically useless. But then again, the diagram was funded by the oil industry, which has used precisely this argument of "there's no consensus among scientists" to persuade the last administration to do nothing about climate change. Mary Moor (talk) 17:55, 5 March 2009(UTC)
::Mary, the curves in that diagram are actually very similar. The two to the left that cover the whole time interval both come from the Haq & Schutter paper and appear to be slightly different ways of presenting the same base data (with different smoothing etc.). The third curve, from a source that I haven't managed to find yet, shows a similar overall shape (at least to my eye) but rather greater short term variation. There are plenty of critics of these curves but I'd be surprised if anyone suggested that they were anything other than a genuine attempt to estimate past sea level changes. They were created to better understand observed sedimentary sequences in the geological record. Mikenorton (talk) 22:21, 6 March 2009 (UTC)
::: Thank you, this is very helpful! I also better understand your earlier comment now: There are areas that are so stable that we can consider them as static, correct? I now see the similarity between the two first curves. (The sudden drops of sea levels of 50m or more in the left curve were a bit scary, anyway.) As for the third curve, however, it still seems very different to me: During Sheinwoodian, the left curves experience one of their highest periods, above 200m, but the third curve varies between 50m and 0m. Mary Moor (talk) 22:11, 7 March 2009 (UTC)
: The trouble is that modern estimates for sea level increase for (say) 3 degrees of global warming are not calculated by looking back in time to when we last had those temperatures. They are estimated based on several things:
:* When the temperatures rise 3 degrees - any ice that's currently within 3 degrees of melting - will melt. We can pretty much know the volume of that ice. Of course floating sea ice (such as at the North Pole) doesn't count because it's already displacing its own weight of seawater. The main concern is glaciers, snow-pack and antarctica.
:* Water that's more than a few degrees above freezing expands as it gets hotter. So knowing the present volume of all of the oceans - it's easy to calculate how much all of that water will expand by.
:So those two things give us an idea of just how much more water (by volume) there will be in a 3 degree warmer world...and it's a heck of a lot. Divide that by the surface area of the oceans and what you have left is a rough idea of how much the ocean will rise. There are a couple of secondary effects - one is that as land is inundated by water, it's under more pressure - and that extra weight sitting on top of our continents could push them downwards - allowing yet more flooding. Secondly - (and annoyingly) the exact opposite of that effect happens in the antarctic - where the loss of ice above the land of that continent will allow antarctica to rise up somewhat because of the loss of weight pushing down on it...this displaces more water - which then floods the other continents still more.
: 25 meters is definitely on the upper end of scientific consensus - but even the lower estimate of 7 meters is pretty frightening if you live in a low-lying city such as New York, London, Paris...you name it. Claiming that "scientists don't agree" is a reasonable claim providing that you are quite clear on what it is that they don't agree on. It's not a matter of "Is this going to be a total disaster or not?" - it's a matter of "25 meters or only 7 meters." - or to put it more pointedly: "Do we lose 100 major cities world-wide or only 30? Are three billion people going to be made homeless or only two? Will loss of low lying fertile farmland result in 50% of humanity starving to death or only 30%." To claim that scientists can't agree on whether this is or is not the single most important thing for the world to focus on fixing - is quite incorrect. The agreement on that point is as close to unanimous as matters. SteveBaker (talk) 20:04, 5 March 2009 (UTC)
:: The point was that, based on what we know about the ancient situation, we can make assumptions about our time, not the other way round. I assumed that this was a finding of geology. Mary Moor (talk) 03:26, 6 March 2009 (UTC)
:::As an approximate estimate, melting all the ice on Earth into the ocean would raise sea levels by about 75 metres (250 ft). However, there are factors that can raise this level further, such as isostatic rebound in coastal or undersea areas (land displaces the water, forcing the global sea level to rise), thermal expansion, or a decreased atmospheric water vapor content (more of it being in the ocean). ~AH1(TCU) 00:52, 8 March 2009 (UTC)
::::Also, finding the volume of all the ice at a certain melting threshold really isn't a good indicator of how much sea levels will rise. For one thing, a global temperature rise of 3C means that the poles will usually warm faster than at the equator, and land warms faster than ocean. Also, some ice shelves, especially West Antarctica, are vulnerable to being flooded from underneath, lubricating the ice and sending it into the ocean faster, and one example of where this could occur is at Pine Island Bay. ~AH1(TCU) 01:49, 8 March 2009 (UTC)