2012 Montana gubernatorial election
{{Short description|none}}
{{for|related races|2012 United States gubernatorial elections}}
{{Use American English|date=January 2025}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2012 Montana gubernatorial election
| country = Montana
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2008 Montana gubernatorial election
| previous_year = 2008
| next_election = 2016 Montana gubernatorial election
| next_year = 2016
| election_date = {{Start date|2012|11|6}}
| image1 = File:Steve Bullock.jpg
| image_size = 150x150px
| nominee1 = Steve Bullock
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| running_mate1 = John Walsh
| popular_vote1 = 236,450
| percentage1 = 48.90%
| image2 = Image:RickHill2 (cropped).jpg
| nominee2 = Rick Hill
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| running_mate2 = Jon Sonju
| popular_vote2 = 228,879
| percentage2 = 47.34%
| map_image = 2012 Montana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
| map_size = 299px
| map_caption = County results
Bullock: {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}}
Hill: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#c21b18|80–90%}}
| title = Governor
| before_election = Brian Schweitzer
| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| after_election = Steve Bullock
| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| turnout = 72.18%{{decrease}}2.32{{cite web |url=https://sosmt.gov/elections/voter-turnout/|title=Montana Voter Turnout|newspaper=Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen|date=22 February 2018 |access-date=2022-05-26}}
}}
{{ElectionsMT}}
The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245). With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.{{Cite web|url=https://mtstandard.com/news/state-and-regional/networks-declare-bullock-winner-in-tight-race-for-governor/article_612a52fb-6e9e-59a0-9707-a99cba364cfd.html|title=Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor|author=Charles S. Johnson |website=Montana Standard|date=6 November 2012 }} This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.
Democratic primary
=Candidates=
==Declared==
- Steve Bullock, Montana Attorney General{{cite web|url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0911/Bullock_joins_Montana_governors_race.html|title=Bullock joins Montana governor's race|date=September 7, 2011|access-date=September 7, 2011|work=Politico|first=David|last=Catanese}}
:*Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard{{cite web|url=http://helenair.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/bullock-makes-pick-of-walsh-as-running-mate-official/article_d15396fa-69b6-11e1-8d0c-001871e3ce6c.html|title=Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official|date=March 9, 2012|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=Independent Record|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
- Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext
:*Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps{{cite web|url=http://www.kxlf.com/news/democrats-margolis-and-nelsen-enter-race-for-mt-governor/|archive-url=https://archive.today/20130127152509/http://www.kxlf.com/news/democrats-margolis-and-nelsen-enter-race-for-mt-governor/|url-status=dead|archive-date=January 27, 2013|title=Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor|date=March 12, 2012|access-date=March 14, 2012|publisher=KXLF-TV|first=Marnee|last=Banks}}
==Withdrew==
- Larry Jent, state senator{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/jent-drops-out-of-governor-s-race-leaving-bullock-as/article_a1f2c941-328e-5d91-b9dc-cda317b7d4ff.html|title=Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat|date=March 8, 2012|access-date=March 9, 2012|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
==Declined==
- John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_81d72166-4d61-5211-81b7-1920a717e174.html|title=Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race|date=June 12, 2011|access-date=June 15, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
- Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman
- Dave Wanzenried, state senator{{cite news|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_50550ded-d513-5b2d-b7f8-af02a603e060.html#ixzz1RRxM0oBg|title=Wanzenried ends run for governor|author=Charles S. Johnson |work=Billings Gazette|date=7 July 2011 }}
- Pat Williams, former U.S. representative{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_1be5c30c-bf61-11df-8d34-001cc4c03286.html|title=Pat Williams not running for governor|date=September 13, 2010|access-date=January 17, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
=Polling=
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Steve ! width=100px| Larry ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1205925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 573 | align=center| ± 4.1% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 70% | align=center| 6% | align=center| — | align=center| 24% |
=Results=
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Democratic primary results{{cite web|url=http://sos.mt.gov/Elections/2012/Primary/2012_PRIMARY_STATEWIDE_CANVASS.PDF|title=2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS|access-date=September 24, 2012|work=Secretary of State of Montana|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130121105908/http://sos.mt.gov/Elections/2012/Primary/2012_PRIMARY_STATEWIDE_CANVASS.PDF|archive-date=January 21, 2013}}
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Steve Bullock
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 76,738
| percentage = 86.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Heather Margolis
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 11,823
| percentage = 13.4
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 88,561
| percentage = 100.0
}}
{{Election box end}}
Republican primary
=Candidates=
==Declared==
- Bob Fanning, retired businessman{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_e66e393c-83c6-515c-a08d-dc2def3e0038.html|title=3 more GOP candidates running for governor|date=October 4, 2011|access-date=October 5, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
:*Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative{{cite web|url=http://www.krtv.com/news/long-list-of-candidates-running-for-u-s-house-and-mt-governor/|archive-url=https://archive.today/20130127101528/http://www.krtv.com/news/long-list-of-candidates-running-for-u-s-house-and-mt-governor/|url-status=dead|archive-date=January 27, 2013|title=Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor|date=March 12, 2012|access-date=March 14, 2012|publisher=KRTV|first=Marnee|last=Banks}}
:*Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012){{cite web|url=http://www.ktvq.com/news/mt-gubernatorial-candidate-fanning-loses-running-mate/|title=MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate|date=February 13, 2012|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=KTVQ|first=Marnee|last=Banks|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150119003517/http://www.ktvq.com/news/mt-gubernatorial-candidate-fanning-loses-running-mate/|archive-date=January 19, 2015|url-status=dead|df=mdy-all}}
- Rick Hill, former U.S. representative{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_a6977f7b-8c67-57cf-8905-4d2f433a8328.html|title=Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor|date=November 6, 2010|access-date=January 17, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
:*Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator{{cite web|url=http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/articles/article/rick_hill_announces_jon_sonju_as_gubernatorial_running_mate/26232|title=Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate|date=January 18, 2012|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=Flathead Beacon|first=Myers|last=Reece}}
- Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_35b0d126-360a-11e0-af3d-001cc4c03286.html|title=Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race|date=February 12, 2011|access-date=February 12, 2011|agency=Associated Press}}
:*Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_02507b80-0c12-5767-a262-b21a8f35ee6e.html|title=Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate|date=July 10, 2011|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
- Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director{{cite web|url=http://www.ktvq.com/news/jim-lynch-announces-candidacy-for-governor/|title=Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor|date=October 13, 2011|access-date=October 14, 2011|work=KTVQ|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111023163337/http://www.ktvq.com/news/jim-lynch-announces-candidacy-for-governor/|archive-date=October 23, 2011|url-status=dead|df=mdy-all}}
:*Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee{{cite web|url=http://www.krtv.com/news/lynch-names-olszewski-as-running-mate-in-mt-governor-race/|archive-url=https://archive.today/20130127105141/http://www.krtv.com/news/lynch-names-olszewski-as-running-mate-in-mt-governor-race/|url-status=dead|archive-date=January 27, 2013|title=Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race|date=March 12, 2012|access-date=March 14, 2012|publisher=KRTV|first=David|last=Sherman}}
- Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_e31f3212-a3cf-11df-a5aa-001cc4c002e0.html|title=Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race|date=August 9, 2010|access-date=January 17, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Mike|last=Dennison}}
:*Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner{{cite web|url=http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/articles/article/ken_miller_announces_bill_gallagher_as_gubernatorial_running_mate/26517|title=Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate|date=February 6, 2012|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=Flathead Beacon|first=Myers|last=Reece}}
- Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner{{cite web|url=http://www.kfbb.com/news/local/Jim-OHara-Announces-Candidacy-for-Governor-113650059.html|title=Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor|date=January 14, 2011|access-date=January 17, 2011|work=KFBB-TV|first=Charlie|last=Keegan|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110713145346/http://www.kfbb.com/news/local/Jim-OHara-Announces-Candidacy-for-Governor-113650059.html|archive-date=July 13, 2011}}
:*Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/o-hara-picks-retired-mhp-officer-as-running-mate/article_8291361c-e8c1-5c19-bf21-5424f8750c28.html|title=O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate|date=February 7, 2012|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_fe83f456-93c2-11df-8b0a-001cc4c03286.html|title=Stapleton bidding for governor|date=July 19, 2010|access-date=January 17, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
:*Running mate: Bob Keenan, former president of the Montana Senate{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/stapleton-picks-keenan-for-running-mate/article_c10702e7-f084-5225-979d-69807eddfd24.html|title=Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate|date=February 7, 2012|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
==Withdrew==
- Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/essmann-drops-out-of-gop-race-for-governor/article_a4c32a88-7efc-5a4d-8326-b4b510a21eed.html|title=Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor|website=Billingsgazette.com|date=27 January 2012 |access-date=5 January 2018}}
- Drew Turiano, real estate investor[http://www.greatfallstribune.com/article/20120117/NEWS01/120117001/Turiano-drops-gubernatorial-bid] {{dead link|date=January 2018}}{{cite news |title=Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid |url=https://flatheadbeacon.com/2012/01/17/turiano-drops-gubernatorial-bid/ |access-date=11 March 2021 |work=Flathead Beacon |date=17 January 2012 |language=en}}
==Declined==
- Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative (ran for the U.S. Senate){{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_0df2c73d-030d-5989-84cb-c09c1b92efe9.html|title=Rehberg focusing on current job|date=November 11, 2010|access-date=January 17, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
=Polling=
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! style="width:70px;"| Jeff ! style="width:70px;"| Bob ! style="width:70px;"| Rick ! style="width:70px;"| Neil ! style="width:70px;"| Jim ! style="width:70px;"| Ken ! style="width:70px;"| Jim ! style="width:70px;"| Corey ! style="width:70px;"| Other/ |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050312.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| April 26–29, 2012 | align=center| 403 | align=center| ± 4.88% | align=center| — | align=center| 1% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 33% | align=center| 5% | align=center| 4% | align=center| 12% | align=center| 4% | align=center| 7% | {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 35% |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FLMT_1130925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 700 | align=center| ± 3.7% | align=center| 5% | align=center| 1% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 37% | align=center| 3% | align=center| 4% | align=center| 10% | align=center| 3% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 35% |
=Results=
[[File:2012 Montana gubernatorial Republican primary county map.svg|thumb|250px|Primary results by county:
{{collapsible list
| title = Hill
|{{legend|#d60f0f|Hill—51-60%}}
|{{legend|#ff0000|Hill—41-50%}}
|{{legend|#f29b8a|Hill—31-40%}}
|{{legend|#f8dbd5|Hill—21-30%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
| title = Stapleton
|{{legend|#f2f2a0|Stapleton—31-40%}}
|{{legend|#f8f8cc|Stapleton—21-30%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
| title = Miller
|{{legend|#006400|Miller—51-60%}}
|{{legend|#59d622|Miller—41-50%}}
|{{legend|#90ee90|Miller—31-40%}}
|{{legend|#bfff92|Miller—21-30%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
| title = O'Hara
|{{legend|#154bef|O'Hara—51-60%}}
|{{legend|#00ffff|O'Hara—31-40%}}
}}
]]
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Republican primary results
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Rick Hill
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 46,802
| percentage = 34.4
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Corey Stapleton
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 24,661
| percentage = 18.1
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Ken Miller
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 24,496
| percentage = 18.0
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jim O'Hara
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 16,653
| percentage = 12.2
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Neil Livingstone
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 12,038
| percentage = 8.8
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jim Lynch
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 8,323
| percentage = 6.1
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Bob Fanning
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 3,087
| percentage = 2.3
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 136,060
| percentage = 100.0
}}
{{Election box end}}
General election
=Candidates=
- Steve Bullock (D), Montana attorney general
:*Running mate: John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
- Rick Hill (R), former U.S. representative
:*Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator
- Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman{{cite web|url=http://helenair.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/governor-candidates-talk-about-state-economy/article_d4a2f096-636f-11e1-bbbd-001871e3ce6c.html|title=Governor candidates talk about state economy|date=March 1, 2012|access-date=March 14, 2012|work=Independent Record|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
=Debate=
- [https://www.c-span.org/video/?308710-1/montana-gubernatorial-debate Complete video of debate], C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
= Predictions =
=Polling=
Aggregate polls
| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:17px"
!Source of poll !Dates !Dates ! style="width:100px;"| Steve ! style="width:100px;"| Rick ! style="width:100px;"| Other/Undecided !Margin |
| Real Clear Politics[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/mt/montana_governor_hill_vs_bullock-1839.html Real Clear Politics]
|September 27 – November 3, 2012 |November 3, 2012 |44.0% |{{party shading/Republican}}|45.7% |10.3% |{{party shading/Republican}}|Hill +1.7% |
{{Graph:Chart
| width=700
| height=400
| xAxisTitle=
| yAxisTitle=%support
| xAxisAngle = -40
| legend=Candidate
| interpolate = bundle
| size = 77
| xType = date
| y1Title=Steve Bullock
| y2Title=Rick Hill
| y3Title=Other/Undecided
| type=line
|xGrid=
| x= 2010/11/13, 2011/06/19, 2011/11/30, 2012/04/29, 2012/09/11, 2012/09/19, 2012/09/30, 2012/10/10, 2012/10/31, 2012/11/03
| y1= 31, 37, 38, 39, 44, 44, 38, 42, 46, 48
| y2= 41, 39, 39, 39, 39, 43, 40, 43, 49, 48
| y3= 28, 23, 23, 21, 17, 13, 22, 15, 5, 4
| colors = #3333ff, #e81b23, #dcdcdc
| showSymbols = 1
| yGrid = true
| linewidth = 2.0
}}
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Steve ! width=100px| Rick ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| November 2–3, 2012 | align=center| 836 | align=center| ± 3.4% | align=center| 48% | align=center| 48% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 2% |
| Mason-Dixon[http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-shows-hill-edging-bullock-in-tight-race/article_fc15146b-d133-5b0e-b51b-e16435d9fd02.html Mason-Dixon]
| align=center| October 29–31, 2012 | align=center| 625 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 46% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 49% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| October 8–10, 2012 | align=center| 737 | align=center| ± 3.6% | align=center| 42% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 43% | align=center| 8% | align=center| 7% |
| Montana State University[http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2012/MSUB_poll_Day%201_%2010-10-12.pdf Montana State University]
| align=center| September 27–30, 2012 | align=center| 477 | align=center| ± 4.6% | align=center| 38% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 40% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 20% |
| Mason-Dixon[http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-governor-s-race-about-even-bullock-hill/article_062cf741-101c-52b4-968c-36b9d89e17e7.html Mason-Dixon]
| align=center| September 17–19, 2012 | align=center| 625 | align=center| ± 4.0% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 44% | align=center| 43% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_091312.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| September 10–11, 2012 | align=center| 656 | align=center| ± 3.2% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 44% | align=center| 39% | align=center| 8% | align=center| 9% |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| April 26–29, 2012 | align=center| 934 | align=center| ± 3.2% | align=center| 39% | align=center| 39% | align=center| — | align=center| 21% |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 1,625 | align=center| ± 2.4% | align=center| 38% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 39% | align=center| — | align=center| 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[https://web.archive.org/web/20110706113425/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_623.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | align=center| 37% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 39% | align=center| — | align=center| 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[https://web.archive.org/web/20110504105047/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1119.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| November 10–13, 2010 | align=center| 1,176 | align=center| ± 2.9% | align=center| 31% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 41% | align=center| — | align=center| 28% |
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
With Bohlinger
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| John ! width=100px| Jeff ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 40% | align=center| 33% | align=center| — | align=center| 28% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| John ! width=100px| Rick ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | align=center| 39% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 40% | align=center| — | align=center| 21% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| John ! width=100px| Ken ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 39% | align=center| 33% | align=center| — | align=center| 28% |
With Bullock
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Steve ! width=100px| Jeff ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 1,625 | align=center| ± 2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 42% | align=center| 30% | align=center| — | align=center| 28% |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 38% | align=center| 33% | align=center| — | align=center| 28% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Steve ! width=100px| Neil ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 1,625 | align=center| ± 2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 41% | align=center| 29% | align=center| — | align=center| 30% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Steve ! width=100px| Ken ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| April 26–29, 2012 | align=center| 934 | align=center| ± 3.2% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 41% | align=center| 35% | align=center| — | align=center| 24% |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 1,625 | align=center| ± 2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 40% | align=center| 31% | align=center| — | align=center| 29% |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 38% | align=center| 34% | align=center| — | align=center| 28% |
With Jent
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Larry ! width=100px| Rick ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 1,625 | align=center| ± 2.4% | align=center| 26% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 39% | align=center| — | align=center| 35% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Larry ! width=100px| Neil ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 1,625 | align=center| ± 2.4% | align=center| 26% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 30% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Independent}} align=center| 44% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Larry ! width=100px| Ken ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| November 28–30, 2011 | align=center| 1,625 | align=center| ± 2.4% | align=center| 25% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 33% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Independent}} align=center| 42% |
With Wanzenried
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Dave ! width=100px| Jeff ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | align=center| 31% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 33% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Independent}} align=center| 36% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Dave ! width=100px| Rick ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | align=center| 30% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 40% | align=center| — | align=center| 30% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:160px;"| Date(s) ! class=small | Sample ! Margin of ! width=100px| Dave ! width=100px| Ken ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | align=center| 30% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 35% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Independent}} align=center| 35% |
{{hidden end}}
=Results=
{{Election box begin | title=2012 Montana gubernatorial election{{cite web|url=https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/attachments/2012_General_Canvass.pdf?dt=1480457264103&dt=1480523087997&dt=1483636395345&dt=1484090685147&dt=1484090818653&dt=1484091059850&dt=1484092785123&dt=1484668556665&dt=1484676687552&dt=1485286813335&dt=1485286979901&dt=1491412807839&dt=1494348815885&dt=1494348873534&dt=1497553987845&dt=1497555053569&dt=1497555121034&dt=1497555299184&dt=1497892315130&dt=1519325848767|title=2012 Statewide General Election Canvass|publisher=Montana Secretary of State|access-date=January 13, 2019}}
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link|
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| candidate = Steve Bullock
| votes = 236,450
| percentage = 48.90%
| change = -16.57%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| candidate = Rick Hill
| votes = 228,879
| percentage = 47.34%
| change = +14.82%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
| party = Libertarian Party (United States)
| candidate = Ron Vandevender
| votes = 18,160
| percentage = 3.76%
| change = +1.75%
}}
{{Election box total
|votes = 483,489
|percentage = 100.00%
|change = N/A
}}
{{Election box hold with party link no swing
|winner = Democratic Party (United States)
}}
{{Election box end}}
==Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican==
{{columns-list|colwidth=20em|
- Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
- Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
- Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Custer (largest city: Miles City)
- Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
- Dawson (Largest city: Glendive)
- Fallon (largest city: Baker)
- Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
- Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
- Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
- Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
- Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
- Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
- Liberty (largest city: Chester)
- Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
- Madison (largest city: Ennis)
- McCone (largest city: Circle)
- Mineral (largest city: Superior)
- Park (largest city: Livingston)
- Phillips (largest city: Malta)
- Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
- Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
- Prairie (largest city: Terry)
- Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
- Richland (largest city: Sidney)
- Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
- Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
- Sheridan (Largest city: Plentywood)
- Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
- Teton (largest city: Choteau)
- Toole (largest city: Shelby)
- Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
- Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
- Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
- Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)
- Yellowstone (largest city: Billings)
}}
Notes
{{Notelist}}
References
{{Reflist}}
External links
- [http://sos.mt.gov/elections/index.asp Elections and Government – Montana Secretary of State]
Official campaign websites (Archived)
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20121008102853/http://stevebullock.com/ Steve Bullock for Governor]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20121029145546/http://www.rickhillforgovernor.com/ Rick Hill for Governor]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20120321200531/http://www.ronformontana.com/ Ron Vandevender for Governor]
{{2012 United States elections}}