2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
| country = Montana
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2010 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
| previous_year = 2010
| next_election = 2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
| next_year = 2014
| election_date = November 6, 2012
| image_size = x150px
| image1 = File:Steve Daines, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
| nominee1 = Steve Daines
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote1 = 255,468
| percentage1 = 53.3%
| image2 = File:Kim Gillan 2012 (3x4).jpg
| nominee2 = Kim Gillan
| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 = 204,939
| percentage2 = 42.7%
| map_image = Montana's at-large congressional district election, 2012 results by county.svg
| map_caption = County results
Daines: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#c21b18|80–90%}}
Gillan: {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}}
| title = U.S. Representative
| before_election = Denny Rehberg
| before_party = Republican Party (United States)
| after_election = Steve Daines
| after_party = Republican Party (United States)
}}
{{ElectionsMT}}
The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in the U.S. Senate.{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_e0073c4e-7c2b-11df-b753-001cc4c002e0.html|title=It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester|date=February 5, 2011|access-date=February 5, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}} A primary election was held on June 5, 2012.{{cite web|url=http://sos.mt.gov/elections/Archives/2010s/2012/2012_Election_Calendar.pdf|title=Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar|access-date=August 16, 2011|publisher=Secretary of State Linda McCulloch|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110810223301/http://sos.mt.gov/elections/Archives/2010s/2012/2012_Election_Calendar.pdf|archive-date=August 10, 2011|url-status=dead}} Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.
{{Toclimit|limit=2}}
Republican primary
=Candidates=
==Nominee==
- Steve Daines, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008{{cite web|url=http://www.kxlf.com/news/bozeman-s-steve-daines-comments-on-switching-from-senate-to-house-race/|title=Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race|date=February 3, 2011|access-date=June 1, 2011|publisher=KXLF.com|first=Judy|last=Slate|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110713174908/http://www.kxlf.com/news/bozeman-s-steve-daines-comments-on-switching-from-senate-to-house-race/|archive-date=July 13, 2011|url-status=dead|df=mdy-all}}
===Eliminated in primary===
- Eric Brosten, author and engineer{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/star-wars-is-top-issue-for-gop-house-candidate/article_31ed9571-4590-5df3-a86a-db387161c8be.html|title=Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate|date=February 2, 2012|access-date=February 7, 2012|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
- Vincent Melkus, student at Colorado Mesa University and former Marine{{cite web|url=http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/ex-marine-from-hardin-files-for-montana-s-u-s/article_3184ccb6-67fe-11e1-9a7e-001871e3ce6c.html|title=Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat|date=March 6, 2012|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=Missoulian|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
==Withdrawn==
- John Abarr, white supremacist and Ku Klux Klan organizer.{{cite web |last1=Cates |first1=Kristen |title=More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious |url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/11/03/inclusive-kkk-montana-chapter/18406129/ |website=USA TODAY |access-date=25 February 2024}}{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/republican-mont-candidate-for-congress-with-kkk-ties-drops-out-due-to-lack-of-support/2011/10/05/gIQAfdloNL_story.html|title=Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support|date=October 5, 2011|access-date=October 15, 2011|newspaper=The Washington Post}}{{dead link|date=June 2021|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}
=Hypothetical polling=
| class="wikitable"
! Poll source ! style="width:130px;"| Date(s) ! {{small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| John ! style="width:100px;"| Steve ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0705.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 382 | align=center| ± 5.0% | align=center| 14% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 22% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 64% |
=Results=
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Republican primary results[https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/attachments/2012_PRIMARY_STATEWIDE_CANVASS.PDF State of Montana. Official Canvas] Retrieved December 20, 2022
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Steve Daines
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 82,843
| percentage = 71.2
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Eric Brosten
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 21,012
| percentage = 18.1
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Vincent Melkus
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 12,420
| percentage = 10.7
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 116,275
| percentage = 100.0
}}
{{Election box end}}
Democratic primary
=Candidates=
==Nominee==
- Kim Gillan, state senator from Billings{{cite web|url=http://www.kaj18.com/news/kim-gillan-enters-democratic-race-for-us-house/|title=Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House|date=June 21, 2011|access-date=June 21, 2011|publisher=KAJ18.com|first=Marnee|last=Banks|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120321003032/http://www.kaj18.com/news/kim-gillan-enters-democratic-race-for-us-house/|archive-date=March 21, 2012|url-status=dead}}
==Eliminated in primary==
- Sam Rankin, real estate salesman and candidate for this seat in 2010{{cite web|url=http://helenair.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/billings-real-estate-agent-rankin-joins-u-s-house-race/article_edd750d8-69b5-11e1-afdc-001871e3ce6c.html|title=Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo|date=March 9, 2012|access-date=March 11, 2012|work=Independent Record}}
- Diane Smith, businesswoman{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_b0d89e30-f1cf-5a02-b661-68d6801dad48.html|title=Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race|date=November 3, 2011|access-date=November 11, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Mike|last=Dennison}}
- Dave Strohmaier, Missoula city council member{{cite web|url=http://www.kpax.com/news/strohmaier-announces-run-for-congress/|title=Strohmaier announces run for Congress|date=June 18, 2011|access-date=June 20, 2011|publisher=KPAX|first=Allyson|last=Weller|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110623010336/http://www.kpax.com/news/strohmaier-announces-run-for-congress/|archive-date=June 23, 2011|url-status=dead}}
- Rob Stutz, attorney{{cite web|url=http://www.krtv.com/news/helena-attorney-rob-stutz-announces-run-for-us-house/|title=Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House|date=August 10, 2011|access-date=August 16, 2011|publisher=KRTV|first=Marnee|last=Banks|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110929083822/http://www.krtv.com/news/helena-attorney-rob-stutz-announces-run-for-us-house/|archive-date=September 29, 2011|url-status=dead}}
- Jason Ward, farmer and construction manager for the Crow Nation{{cite web|url=http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/crow-tribal-member-files-as-democrat-for-u-s-house/article_84c3b2b6-43e1-11e1-a6ed-001871e3ce6c.html|title=Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat|date=January 20, 2012|access-date=January 25, 2012|work=Missoulian|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
- Franke Wilmer, state representative from Bozeman{{cite web|url=http://www.krtv.com/news/wilmer-of-bozeman-announces-u-s-house-bid/|title=Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid|date=February 1, 2011|access-date=June 1, 2011|publisher=KRTV.com|first=Marnee|last=Banks|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110713171859/http://www.krtv.com/news/wilmer-of-bozeman-announces-u-s-house-bid/|archive-date=July 13, 2011|url-status=dead|df=mdy-all}}
==Declined==
- Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for this seat in 2010{{cite web|url=http://helenair.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/gopher-not-running-for-congress-she-sets-eye-on-senate/article_c0ecadf4-6d9b-11e1-97e8-001871e3ce6c.html|title=Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014|date=March 14, 2012|access-date=March 15, 2012|work=Independent Record}}
- Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana{{cite web|url=http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_136/Schweitzer-might-challenge-baucus-in-2014-montana-primary-206288-1.html|title=Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?|date=June 9, 2011|access-date=June 10, 2011|work=Roll Call|first=David M.|last=Drucker}}{{cite web|url=http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_3f03c623-fc77-572a-b462-756a5b2baaed.html|title=Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress|date=July 28, 2011|access-date=August 2, 2011|work=Billings Gazette|first=Charles S.|last=Johnson}}
=Polling=
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:130px;"| Date(s) ! {{small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:70px;"| Kim ! style="width:70px;"| Sam ! style="width:70px;"| Diane ! style="width:80px;"| Dave ! style="width:70px;"| Rob ! style="width:70px;"| Jason ! style="width:70px;"| Franke ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050112.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| April 26–29, 2012 | align=center| 332 | align=center| ± 5.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 21% | align=center| 4% | align=center| 13% | align=center| 9% | align=center| 1% | align=center| 0% | align=center| 11% | {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 41% |
=Results=
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Democratic primary results
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Kim Gillan
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 25,077
| percentage = 31.0
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Franke Wilmer
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 14,836
| percentage = 18.4
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Diane Smith
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 12,618
| percentage = 15.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Dave Strohmaier
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 11,366
| percentage = 14.1
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Sam Rankin
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 9,382
| percentage = 11.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jason Ward
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 4,959
| percentage = 6.1
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Rob Stutz
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 2,586
| percentage = 3.2
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 80,824
| percentage = 100.0
}}
{{Election box end}}
=Libertarian primary=
==Candidates==
===Nominee===
- David Kaiser{{cite web|url=http://helenair.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/filing-deadline-busy-day-precedes-busy-election-season/article_580ce218-6cd3-11e1-9761-001871e3ce6c.html|title=Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season|date=March 13, 2012|access-date=March 15, 2012|work=Independent Record|first=Mike|last=Dennison}}
General election
= Endorsements =
{{Endorsements box
|title = Steve Daines (R)
|list =
Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Vanguard" Program{{cite web |title=CANDIDATES |url=http://gopyoungguns.com/candidates |website=gopyoungguns.com |access-date=16 January 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130101110717/http://gopyoungguns.com/candidates |archive-date=1 January 2013}}
}}
{{Endorsements box
|title = Kim Gillan (D)
|list =
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program{{cite web |title=RED TO BLUE 2012 |url=http://www.dccc.org/pages/redtoblue |publisher=DCCC |access-date=5 March 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121026213338/http://www.dccc.org/pages/redtoblue |archive-date=26 October 2012}}
}}
=Polling=
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample ! Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Steve ! style="width:100px;"| Kim ! style="width:100px;"| David ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[https://web.archive.org/web/20150905222628/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
| align=center| November 2–3, 2012 | align=center| 737 | align=center| ± 3.6% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 48% | align=center| 44% | align=center| 3% | align=center| 4% |
| Mason-Dixon[https://web.archive.org/web/20121105100321/http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/daines-stakes-out-solid-lead-over-gillan-in-u-s/article_a7560897-e7c9-5f1b-a85a-2386b2b932e7.html Mason-Dixon]
| align=center| October 29–31, 2012 | align=center| 625 | align=center| ± 4.0% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 51% | align=center| 40% | align=center| 1% | align=center| 8% |
| Pharos Research Group[https://web.archive.org/web/20121119152013/http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/Montana.pdf Pharos Research Group]
| align=center| October 26–28, 2012 | align=center| 799 | align=center| ± 4.9% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 52% | align=center| 45% | align=center| – | align=center| 4% |
| Pharos Research Group[https://web.archive.org/web/20150906003712/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/pharos-research-group-16247 Pharos Research Group]
| align=center| October 19–21, 2012 | align=center| 400 | align=center| ± 4.9% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 47% | align=center| 41% | align=center| – | align=center| 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
| align=center| October 8–10, 2012 | align=center| 737 | align=center| ± 3.6% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 43% | align=center| 34% | align=center| 10% | align=center| 12% |
| MSU-Billings[http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/billingsgazette.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/c7/2c7c9c65-1304-5b29-a62c-9717f8c30079/5076638daf20c.pdf.pdf MSU-Billings]
| align=center| September 27–30, 2012 | align=center| 477 | align=center| ± 4.6% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 36% | align=center| 23% | align=center| 3% | {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 38% |
| Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)[https://www.scribd.com/doc/109133151/MT-AL-Mellman-Group-for-JET-PAC-DGA-Sept-2012 Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)]
| align=center| September 23–26, 2012 | align=center| 600 | align=center| ± 4.0% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 36% | align=center| 34% | align=center| 5% | align=center| 25% |
| Mason-Dixon[http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-lead-in-house-race-goes-to-daines/article_d6cd4f8f-4f01-52c6-bdeb-91ef2329b0dd.html Mason-Dixon]
| align=center| September 17–19, 2012 | align=center| 625 | align=center| ± 4.0% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 46% | align=center| 38% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
| align=center| September 10–11, 2012 | align=center| 656 | align=center| ± 3.8% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 40% | align=center| 37% | align=center| 9% | align=center| 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050112.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
| align=center| April 26–29, 2012 | align=center| 934 | align=center| ± 3.2% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 33% | align=center| 27% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 40% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0630House.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 35% | align=center| 27% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 38% |
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:130px;"| Date(s) ! {{small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| John ! style="width:100px;"| Kim ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling ([http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0630House.pdf report])
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 30% | align=center| 26% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Independent}} align=center| 44% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:130px;"| Date(s) ! {{small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| John ! style="width:100px;"| Franke ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling ([http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0630House.pdf report])
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 33% | align=center| 25% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Independent}} align=center| 42% |
| class="wikitable" |
| valign= bottom
! Poll source ! style="width:130px;"| Date(s) ! {{small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Steve ! style="width:100px;"| Franke ! Other ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| align=center| April 26–29, 2012 | align=center| 934 | align=center| ± 3.2% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 36% | align=center| 25% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 39% |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0630House.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| align=center| June 16–19, 2011 | align=center| 819 | align=center| ± 3.4% | {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 35% | align=center| 25% | align=center| — | {{party shading/Independent}} align=center| 40% |
{{hidden end}}
==Predictions==
=Results=
{{Election box begin
| title = Montana's at-large congressional district, 2012{{Cite web |url=https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/attachments/2012_General_Canvass.pdf?dt=1480457264103&dt=1480523087997&dt=1483636395345&dt=1484090685147&dt=1484090818653&dt=1484091059850&dt=1484092785123&dt=1484668556665&dt=1484676687552&dt=1485286813335&dt=1485286979901&dt=1491412807839&dt=1494348815885&dt=1494348873534&dt=1497553987845&dt=1497555053569&dt=1497555121034&dt=1497555299184&dt=1497892315130&dt=1519325848767|title=2012 General Canvass |access-date=2019-02-23}}
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link
|party = Republican Party (United States)
|candidate = Steve Daines
|votes = 255,468
|percentage = 53.25%
|change = -7.16%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link
|party = Democratic Party (United States)
|candidate = Kim Gillan
|votes = 204,939
|percentage = 42.72%
|change = +8.88%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link
|party = Libertarian Party (United States)
|candidate = David Kaiser
|votes = 19,333
|percentage = 4.03%
|change = -1.71%
}}
{{Election box total
|votes = 479,740
|percentage = 100.0%
|change = N/A
}}
{{Election box hold with party link no swing
|winner = Republican Party (United States)
}}
{{Election box end}}
==Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic==
References
{{reflist|33em}}
External links
- [http://sos.mt.gov/Elections/index.asp Elections] at the Montana Secretary of State
- [http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Montana,_2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012] at Ballotpedia
- [http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=13 Montana U.S. House] at OurCampaigns.com
- [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/election.php?state=MT&cycle=2012 Campaign contributions for U.S. Congressional races in Montana] at OpenSecrets
- [http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/outside-spending/state/MT Outside spending] at the Sunlight Foundation
Campaign websites
- [http://www.stevedaines.com Steve Daines campaign website]
- [http://gillanforcongress.com/ Kim Gillan campaign website]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20120428075003/http://vote4you.us/ David Kaiser campaign website]
{{United States general elections, 2012}}