2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

| country = Pennsylvania

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

| previous_year = 2006

| next_election = 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

| next_year = 2018

| election_date = November 6, 2012

| image_size = x150px

| turnout = 59.4% (voting eligible){{cite web |url=http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html |title=2012 General Election Turnout Rates |publisher=George Mason University |author=Dr. Michael McDonald |date=February 9, 2013 |access-date=April 6, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html |archive-date=April 24, 2013 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all }}

| image1 = Bob Casey, official Senate photo portrait, c2008.jpg

| nominee1 = Bob Casey Jr.

| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)

| popular_vote1 = 3,021,364

| percentage1 = 53.69%

| image2 = Tom Smith PA cropped.jpg

| nominee2 = Tom Smith

| party2 = Republican Party (United States)

| popular_vote2 = 2,509,132

| percentage2 = 44.59%

| map_image = {{switcher |260px |County results |260px |Congressional district results | default=1}}

| map_size = 240px

| map_caption = Casey: {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|80–90%}}
Smith: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}}

| title = U.S. Senator

| before_election = Bob Casey Jr.

| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)

| after_election = Bob Casey Jr.

| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)

}}

The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.

The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.

Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. The election was the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election. As of {{CURRENTYEAR}}, this is the last time that Fayette County and Luzerne County voted Democratic in a Senate election. This is also the only time since 1956 that Democrats have won a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race in a presidential year.

Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962.

Democratic primary

= Candidates =

Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator{{cite web|url=http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-dc-casey-2012-20101120,0,5867038.story|archive-url=https://archive.today/20120905201910/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-dc-casey-2012-20101120,0,5867038.story|url-status=dead|archive-date=September 5, 2012|title=Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election|date=November 21, 2010|access-date=November 25, 2010|work=The Morning Call|first=Colby|last=Itkowitz}}{{cite web|url=http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10330/1106213-454.stm|title=Murrysville native planning for 2010 run against Casey|date=November 26, 2010|access-date=November 26, 2010|work=Pittsburgh Post-Gazette|first=Daniel|last=Malloy}}
Joseph Vodvarka, spring maker{{cite news|last=Itkowitz|first=Colby|title=Petitions filed for Pa. primary|url=http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-pennsylvania-primary-ballot-20120215,0,1998861.story|archive-url=https://archive.today/20120909114442/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-pennsylvania-primary-ballot-20120215,0,1998861.story|url-status=dead|archive-date=September 9, 2012|access-date=February 22, 2012|newspaper=The Allentown Morning Call|date=February 15, 2012}}

= Results =

[[File:Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2012.svg|260px|thumb|Results by county:

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#7996E2|Casey}}

|{{legend|#584CDE|70–80%}}

|{{legend|#3933E5|80–90%}}

|{{legend|#0D0596|>90%}}

}}

]]

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Democratic primary results

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent)

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 565,488

| percentage = 80.9

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Joseph Vodvarka

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 133,683

| percentage = 19.1

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 699,171

| percentage = 100.0

}}

Republican primary

= Candidates =

== On ballot ==

David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate{{cite news|title=2012: David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race|url=http://pike.mygopsite.net/2011/09/15/2012-david-christian-enters-u-s-senate-race/|access-date=September 24, 2011|newspaper=Pike County Republican Committee|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111115153930/http://pike.mygopsite.net/2011/09/15/2012-david-christian-enters-u-s-senate-race/|archive-date=November 15, 2011|url-status=dead|df=mdy-all}}
John Kensinger, pharmacist{{cite web|url=http://tribune-democrat.com/local/x1953746857/Hopeful-runs-for-Senate|title=New Paris pharmacist seeks GOP nomination|date=September 28, 2011|access-date=September 30, 2011|work=The Tribune-Democrat|first=Sandra K.|last=Reabuck}}
Sam Rohrer, former state representative from Robeson Township and candidate for governor in 2010{{cite news|last=Levy|first=Marc|title=Sam Rohrer to run for Casey's Senate seat|url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45166461/ns/local_news-delaware_valley_pa_nj/t/sam-rohrer-run-caseys-senate-seat/#.TrcOx_Ssc9c|access-date=November 6, 2011|newspaper=MSNBC|date=November 4, 2011}}{{dead link|date=August 2024|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}
Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum
Tom Smith, farmer and businessman and candidate for governor in 2010{{cite web|url=http://www.goerie.com/article/20110929/NEWS02/309289863/Armstrong-County-Republican-announces-candidacy-for-US-Senate-in-Erie|title=Armstrong County Republican announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Erie|date=September 29, 2011|access-date=September 30, 2011|work=Erie Times-News|first=John|last=Guerriero}}
Steve Welch, businessman{{cite web|url=http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-welch-to-enter-senate-race/27742/|title=Welch to Enter Senate Race|date=September 13, 2011|access-date=September 14, 2011|work=PoliticsPA|first=Keegan|last=Gibson}}

== Withdrew ==

Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general elections{{cite web|url=http://www.politicspa.com/burns-exits-senate-race/31520/|title=Burns Exits Senate Race

|date=February 2, 2012|access-date=February 2, 2011|work=PoliticsPA}}

Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activist{{cite web|url=http://www.politicspa.com/cummings-drops-out-of-senate-race-endorses-burns/30781/|title=Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns|date=January 14, 2012|access-date=January 16, 2012|work=Politics PA|first=Keegan|last=Gibson}}
John Vernon, retired Army colonel{{cite web|url=http://www.politicspa.com/vernon-endorses-burns-for-senate/30835/|title=Vernon Endorses Burns for Senate|date=January 16, 2012|access-date=January 17, 2012|work=Politics PA|first=Tara|last=Jerry}}

== Declined ==

Jake Corman, state senator{{cite web |url=http://www.statecollege.com/news/local-news/corman-not-running-for-us-senate-in-2012-he-says-797097/ |title=State College, PA - Corman Not Running for U.S. Senate in 2012, He Says |website=www.statecollege.com |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110704103333/http://www.statecollege.com/news/local-news/corman-not-running-for-us-senate-in-2012-he-says-797097 |archive-date=2011-07-04}}
Charlie Dent, U.S. representative{{cite web|url=http://www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-dent-casey-121010,0,3717021.story|archive-url=https://archive.today/20130722152802/http://www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-dent-casey-121010,0,3717021.story|url-status=dead|archive-date=July 22, 2013|title=Dent versus Casey?|date=December 10, 2010|access-date=December 10, 2010|work=The Morning Call|first=Colby|last=Itkowitz}}
Jim Gerlach, U.S. representative{{cite web|url=http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/11/gop-sees-opport.php|title=GOP Looking For A Casey Challenger|date=November 16, 2010|access-date=November 25, 2010|work=National Journal|first=Jeremy P.|last=Jacobs|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120212063234/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/11/gop-sees-opport.php|archive-date=February 12, 2012|url-status=dead|df=mdy-all}}
Keith Loiselle, businessman{{cite web|url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0811/Is_Casey_closer_to_a_serious_challenger.html?showall|title=Is Casey closer to a serious challenger?|website=Politico|date=August 4, 2011|access-date=August 8, 2011}}
Glen Meakem, radio host
Pat Meehan, U.S. representative{{cite web |url=http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e72bc962d92c253852817.txt?viewmode=fullstory |title=GOP wooing U.S. Rep. Pat Meehan to seek nod to run against Sen. Casey - delcotimes.com |website=www.delcotimes.com |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120913041012/http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e72bc962d92c253852817.txt?viewmode=fullstory |archive-date=2012-09-13}}
Tim Murphy, U.S. representative{{cite web|url=http://www.observer-reporter.com/or/washingtoncounty11/08-31-2011-tim-murphy-visit|title=U.S. Rep. Murphy says he won't run for Senate next year|date=August 31, 2011|access-date=September 2, 2011|work=Observer-Reporter|first=Brad|last=Hundt}}{{Dead link|date=August 2024 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}
Dominic Pileggi, State Senate Majority Leader{{cite web|url=http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/pileggi-wont-ch.php|title=Pileggi Won't Challenge Casey in Pa.|date=December 5, 2011|access-date=December 5, 2011|work=National Journal|first=Sean|last=Sullivan|archive-date=December 23, 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111223183357/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/pileggi-wont-ch.php|url-status=dead}}
Mark Schweiker, former Pennsylvania governor{{cite web|url=http://www.politicspa.com/schweiker-senate-run-"not-in-the-cards"/20152|title=Schweiker: Senate Run "Not in the Cards"|date=January 14, 2011|access-date=January 15, 2011|work=PoliticsPA}}
Bill Shuster, U.S. representative
Mike Turzai, State House Majority Leader
Kim Ward, state senator{{cite web|url=http://www.politicspa.com/breaking-state-senator-kim-ward-exploring-challenge-to-bob-casey-in-2012/19227|title=EXCLUSIVE: State Senator Kim Ward Emerges as Potential Challenger to Bob Casey|date=December 8, 2010|access-date=December 9, 2010|work=PoliticsPA}}
Joe Watkins, MSNBC contributor

= Campaign =

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate.{{cite news|last=Levy|first=Mark|title=Pa. GOP endorses Welch to challenge Sen. Casey|url=http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/577102_Pa--GOP-endorses-Welch-to-challenge-Sen--Casey.html|access-date=April 28, 2012|newspaper=Associated Press|date=January 29, 2012|archive-date=February 7, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120207001920/http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/577102_Pa--GOP-endorses-Welch-to-challenge-Sen--Casey.html|url-status=dead}} The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.

Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2–1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising.{{cite news|title=Smith outspends, outraises Welch in US Senate race|url=http://www.yorkdispatch.com/penn/ci_20390442/smith-outspends-outraises-welch-us-senate-race|access-date=April 28, 2012|newspaper=Associated Press|date=April 13, 2012}} Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years.{{cite news|last=Gibson|first=Keegan|title=Where's Tom Smith?|url=http://www.politicspa.com/wheres-tom-smith/34170/|access-date=April 28, 2012|newspaper=PoliticsPA|date=April 16, 2012}} Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes).{{cite news|last=Gibson|first=Keegan|title=Smith Tax Votes Play in Senate Campaign|url=http://www.politicspa.com/smith-tax-votes-play-in-senate-campaign/33188/|access-date=April 28, 2012|newspaper=PoliticsPA|date=March 26, 2012}} Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.{{cite news|last=Gibson|first=Keegan|title=Sen. Candidate Smith a Heavyweight GOP Donor|url=http://www.politicspa.com/sen-candidate-smith-is-heavyweight-gop-donor/26926/|access-date=April 28, 2012|newspaper=PoliticsPA|date=August 17, 2011}}

Sam Rohrer, a former state representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.{{cite news|last=Gibson|first=Keegan|title=Bachmann Endorses Rohrer|url=http://www.politicspa.com/bachmann-endorses-rohrer/33353/|access-date=April 28, 2012|newspaper=PoliticsPA|date=March 28, 2012}}

David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.{{cite web|title=Primary 2012: Nominate Christian|url=http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/s_791016.html|archive-url=https://archive.today/20120908114331/http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/s_791016.html|url-status=dead|archive-date=September 8, 2012|publisher=Pittsburgh Tribune-Review|access-date=April 28, 2012}}

= Polling =

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

valign=bottom

! Poll source

! {{Small|Date(s)
administered}}

! {{Small|Sample
size}}

! {{Small|Margin of
error}}

! style="width:65px;"| Tim
Burns

! style="width:65px;"| David
Christian

! style="width:65px;"| Laureen
Cummings

! style="width:65px;"| John
Kensinger

! style="width:65px;"| Sam
Rohrer

! style="width:65px;"| Marc
Scaringi

! style="width:65px;"| Tom
Smith

! style="width:65px;"| John
Vernon

! style="width:65px;"| Steve
Welch

! Other

! Undecided

align=left |Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZPA_1121925.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| {{nowrap|November 17–20, 2011}}

| 400

| ±4.9%

| 15%

| —

| 2%

| —

| {{party shading/Republican}} | 25%

| 0%

| 3%

| 1%

| 8%

| {{party shading/Undecided}} | 43%

align=left | {{nowrap|Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV[https://web.archive.org/web/20120213072514/http://pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_780935.html Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV]}}

| February 2–6, 2012

| 500

| ±4.4%

| —

| 1%

| —

| 3%

| {{party shading/Republican}} | 10%

| 1%

| 8%

| —

| 1%

| —

| {{party shading/Undecided}} | 72%

align=left |Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_3141.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| March 8–11, 2012

| 564

| ±4.1%

| —

| 10%

| —

| {{party shading/Republican}} | 16%

| 8%

| 12%

| —

| 5%

| —

| {{party shading/Undecided}} | 48%

align=left | {{nowrap|Franklin & Marshall College[http://thetimes-tribune.com/news/poll-santorum-romney-neck-and-neck-in-pennsylvania-1.1291523#axzz1qPEcdU6X Franklin & Marshall College]}}

| March 20–25, 2012

| 505

| ±4.2%

| —

| 1%

| —

| 7%

| 1%

| {{party shading/Republican}} | 9%

| —

| 1%

| —

| {{party shading/Undecided}} | 81%

= Results =

[[File:Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg|260px|thumb|Results by county:

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#E27F7F|Smith}}

|{{legend|#FFE0EA|20–30%}}

|{{legend|#FFC8CD|30–40%}}

|{{legend|#FFB2B2|40–50%}}

|{{legend|#E27F7F|50–60%}}

|{{legend|#D75D5D|60–70%}}

|{{legend|#D72F30|70–80%}}

|{{legend|#C21B18|80–90%}}

}}

{{collapsible list

|title={{legend|#ff9955|Rohrer}}

|{{legend|#ffccaa|<40%}}

|{{legend|#ff6600|70–80%}}

}}

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#8db8e2|Welch}}

|{{legend|#b4d0ec|40–50%}}

|{{legend|#8db8e2|50–60%}}

}}

{{collapsible list

|title={{legend|#e68ce6|Christian}}

|{{legend|#efb6ef|50–60%}}

}}

{{collapsible list

|title={{legend|#81d0d0|Scaringi}}

|{{legend|#daf5f5|30–40%}}

}}

]]

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Republican primary results{{cite web|title=2012 General Primary: United States Senator|url=http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=45&OfficeID=2|publisher=PA Department of State|access-date=April 25, 2012}}{{cite news|last=Brennan|first=Kevin|title=Smith Wins Pennsylvania Senate Primary|url=http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/04/smith-wins-penn.php|access-date=April 25, 2012|newspaper=National Journal|date=April 24, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120427235749/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/04/smith-wins-penn.php|archive-date=April 27, 2012|url-status=dead|df=mdy-all}}

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Tom Smith

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 299,726

| percentage = 39.5

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Sam Rohrer

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 169,118

| percentage = 22.3

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Steve Welch

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 158,181

| percentage = 20.9

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = David Christian

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 79,581

| percentage = 10.5

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Marc Scaringi

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 51,908

| percentage = 6.8

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 758,514

| percentage = 100.0

}}

General election

= Candidates =

Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
Tom Smith (Republican), businessman
Rayburn Smith (Libertarian){{cite web|title=11/6/2012 2012 GENERAL ELECTION GENERAL CANDIDATE LIST|url=http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_160329_1216969_0_0_18/CandidateList.pdf|publisher=Pennsylvania Department of State|access-date=August 27, 2012|archive-date=March 4, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304055515/http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_160329_1216969_0_0_18/CandidateList.pdf|url-status=dead}}

= Debates =

[https://www.c-span.org/video/?309065-1/pennsylvania-senate-debate Complete video of debate], October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

= Fundraising =

class="wikitable sortable"
Candidate (party) ! Receipts ! Disbursements ! Cash on hand ! Debt
{{party shading/Democratic}} \| Bob Casey, Jr. (D) \| $7,664,686 \| $2,754,060 \| $6,226,560 \| $5,261
{{party shading/Republican}} \| Tom Smith (R) \| $7,954,211 \| $5,673,558 \| $2,280,655 \| $6,475,000
colspan=5 \| Source: Federal Election Commission{{Cite web\|url=https://www.fec.gov/data/browse-data/\|title=Browse data\|website=FEC.gov}}

class="wikitable sortable"

Candidate (party)

! Receipts

! Disbursements

! Cash on hand

! Debt

{{party shading/Democratic}} | Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

| $7,664,686

| $2,754,060

| $6,226,560

| $5,261

{{party shading/Republican}} | Tom Smith (R)

| $7,954,211

| $5,673,558

| $2,280,655

| $6,475,000

colspan=5 | Source: Federal Election Commission{{Cite web|url=https://www.fec.gov/data/browse-data/|title=Browse data|website=FEC.gov}}

== Top contributors ==

{{Cite web|url=https://www.opensecrets.org/races|title=Congressional Races|website=OpenSecrets}}

class="wikitable sortable"
Bob Casey, Jr. ! Contribution ! Tom Smith ! Contribution
Comcast Corp \| $95,175 \| Rosebud Mining \| $26,000
Blank Rome LLP \| $65,500 \| Tj Smith Trucking \| $15,000
Reed Smith LLP \| $61,800 \| Penneco Oil Co \| $12,500
Cozen O'Connor \| $44,975 \| Transportation Equipment Supply Co \| $11,500
University of Pennsylvania \| $44,450 \| R&S Machine Co \| $10,250
Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney \| $43,098 \| Citizens United \| $10,000
K&L Gates \| $42,650 \| Mepco LLC \| $10,000
Pride Mobility Products \| $40,250 \| Snyder Armclar Gas \| $10,000
Blue Cross & Blue Shield \| $39,950 \| Stitt Management \| $10,000
National Amusements Inc. \| $39,250 \| Penn Waste \| $10,000

class="wikitable sortable"

Bob Casey, Jr.

! Contribution

! Tom Smith

! Contribution

Comcast Corp

| $95,175

| Rosebud Mining

| $26,000

Blank Rome LLP

| $65,500

| Tj Smith Trucking

| $15,000

Reed Smith LLP

| $61,800

| Penneco Oil Co

| $12,500

Cozen O'Connor

| $44,975

| Transportation Equipment Supply Co

| $11,500

University of Pennsylvania

| $44,450

| R&S Machine Co

| $10,250

Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney

| $43,098

| Citizens United

| $10,000

K&L Gates

| $42,650

| Mepco LLC

| $10,000

Pride Mobility Products

| $40,250

| Snyder Armclar Gas

| $10,000

Blue Cross & Blue Shield

| $39,950

| Stitt Management

| $10,000

National Amusements Inc.

| $39,250

| Penn Waste

| $10,000

== Top industries ==

{{Cite web|url=https://www.opensecrets.org/races/industries?cycle=2012&id=PAS2%7CDonors|title=Kansas District 04 2012 Race|website=OpenSecrets}}

class="wikitable sortable"
Bob Casey, Jr. ! Contribution ! Tom Smith ! Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms \| $2,095,026 \| Retired \| $104,725
Lobbyists \| $407,472 \| Mining \| $87,800
Real Estate \| $389,559 \| Republican/Conservative \| $43,500
Health Professionals \| $336,023 \| Oil & Gas \| $40,750
Financial Institutions \| $335,998 \| Misc Business \| $35,300
Retired \| $329,132 \| Financial Institutions \| $25,500
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products \| $313,597 \| Misc Manufacturing & Distributing \| $19,650
Hospitals/Nursing Homes \| $296,737 \| Leadership PACs \| $19,000
Entertainment Industry \| $237,825 \| Misc Energy \| $18,000
Insurance \| $221,750 \| Trucking \| $15,250

class="wikitable sortable"

Bob Casey, Jr.

! Contribution

! Tom Smith

! Contribution

Lawyers/Law Firms

| $2,095,026

| Retired

| $104,725

Lobbyists

| $407,472

| Mining

| $87,800

Real Estate

| $389,559

| Republican/Conservative

| $43,500

Health Professionals

| $336,023

| Oil & Gas

| $40,750

Financial Institutions

| $335,998

| Misc Business

| $35,300

Retired

| $329,132

| Financial Institutions

| $25,500

Pharmaceuticals/Health Products

| $313,597

| Misc Manufacturing & Distributing

| $19,650

Hospitals/Nursing Homes

| $296,737

| Leadership PACs

| $19,000

Entertainment Industry

| $237,825

| Misc Energy

| $18,000

Insurance

| $221,750

| Trucking

| $15,250

= Predictions =

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
Source ! Ranking ! As of
align=left \| The Cook Political Report{{cite web \| title=2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 \| url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 \| website=The Cook Political Report \| access-date=September 20, 2018 \| archive-date=August 29, 2018 \| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 \| url-status=dead }} \| {{USRaceRating\|Lean\|D}} \| November 1, 2012
align=left \| Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web \| title=2012 Senate \| url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2012-senate/ \| website=Sabato's Crystal Ball \| access-date=September 20, 2018}} \| {{USRaceRating\|Lean\|D}} \| November 5, 2012
align=left \| Rothenberg Political Report{{cite web \| title=2012 Senate Ratings \| url=http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-november-2-2012 \| work=Senate Ratings \| publisher=The Rothenberg Political Report \| access-date=September 20, 2018}} \| {{USRaceRating\|Likely\|D}} \| November 2, 2012
align=left \| Real Clear Politics{{cite web \| title=2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 \| url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html\| publisher=Real Clear Politics \| access-date=September 20, 2018}} \| {{USRaceRating\|Lean\|D}} \| November 5, 2012

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

Source

! Ranking

! As of

align=left | The Cook Political Report{{cite web | title=2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 | url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 | website=The Cook Political Report | access-date=September 20, 2018 | archive-date=August 29, 2018 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 | url-status=dead }}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| November 1, 2012

align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web | title=2012 Senate | url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2012-senate/ | website=Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=September 20, 2018}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| November 5, 2012

align=left | Rothenberg Political Report{{cite web | title=2012 Senate Ratings | url=http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-november-2-2012 | work=Senate Ratings | publisher=The Rothenberg Political Report | access-date=September 20, 2018}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

| November 2, 2012

align=left | Real Clear Politics{{cite web | title=2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 | url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html| publisher=Real Clear Politics | access-date=September 20, 2018}}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

| November 5, 2012

=Polling=

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:200px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Tom
Smith (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Angus Reid Public Opinion{{usurped|1=[https://web.archive.org/web/20130311071716/http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2012.11.05_Pennsylvania.pdf Angus Reid Public Opinion]}}

| align=center| November 2–4, 2012

| align=center| 507

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 53%

| align=center| 46%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| —

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PAWI_1103.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| November 2–3, 2012

| align=center| 790

| align=center| ± 3.5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 52%

| align=center| 44%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 3%

Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc--morning-call-2012-pennsylvania-presidential-election-survey-20121104,0,3980627.htmlpage Muhlenberg College/Morning Call] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121106072748/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc--morning-call-2012-pennsylvania-presidential-election-survey-20121104,0,3980627.htmlpage |date=November 6, 2012 }}

| align=center| November 1–3, 2012

| align=center| 430

| align=center| ± 5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 42%

| align=center| 2%

| align=center| 9%

Tribune-Review/Susquehanna[http://triblive.com/home/2878011-74/casey-smith-poll-percent-senate-bob-lee-republican-class-county#axzz2BB7sCTBD Tribune-Review/Susquehanna]

| align=center| October 29–31, 2012

| align=center| 800

| align=center| ± 3.4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 46%

| align=center| 45%

| align=center| 2%

| align=center| 8%

Franklin & Marshall College[http://thetimes-tribune.com/news/new-poll-shows-obama-casey-still-up-in-pa-1.1396339 Franklin & Marshall College]

| align=center| October 23–28, 2012

| align=center| 547

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 46%

| align=center| 36%

| align=center| 4%

| align=center| 13%

Philadelphia Inquirer[http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/poll/20121026_Poll__Obama_still_ahead__but_Romney_up.html Philadelphia Inquirer]

| align=center| October 23–25, 2012

| align=center| 600

| align=center| ± 4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 42%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 9%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_senate Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| October 24, 2012

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 46%

| align=center| 45%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 9%

Pharos Research[https://www.scribd.com/doc/111056294/Pennsylvania-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 Pharos Research] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121031155409/http://www.scribd.com/doc/111056294/Pennsylvania-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 |date=October 31, 2012 }}

| align=center| October 19–21, 2012

| align=center| 760

| align=center| ± 3.6%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 52%

| align=center| 42%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 6%

Muhlenberg College Poll[http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2012.10.22_Pennsylvania.pdf Muhlenberg College Poll] {{Dead link|date=April 2023 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

| align=center| October 17–21, 2012

| align=center| 444

| align=center| ± 5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 45%

| align=center| 37%

| align=center| 2%

| align=center| 16%

Angus Reid Public Opinion[http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2012.10.22_Pennsylvania.pdf Angus Reid Public Opinion] {{Dead link|date=April 2023 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

| align=center| October 18–20, 2012

| align=center| 559

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 45%

| align=center| 4%

| align=center| —

Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20121023050356/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1807 Quinnipiac]

| align=center| October 12–14, 2012

| align=center| 1,519

| align=center| ± 2.5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 45%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 7%

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_1014.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| October 12–14, 2012

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 50%

| align=center| 39%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 11%

Muhlenberg[http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-read-muhlenbergtmc-pa-presidential-election-survey-10152012,0,1372801.htmlstory Muhlenberg] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121018071836/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-read-muhlenbergtmc-pa-presidential-election-survey-10152012,0,1372801.htmlstory |date=October 18, 2012 }}

| align=center| October 10–14, 2012

| align=center| 438

| align=center| ± 5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 41%

| align=center| 39%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| 18%

Susquehanna Polling[http://www.susquehannapolling.com/Newsflash_10-18-12.pdf Susquehanna Polling] {{Dead link|date=August 2024 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

| align=center| October 11–13, 2012

| align=center| 1,376

| align=center| ± 2.6%

| align=center| 46%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| 5%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_senate_casey_d_49_smith_r_45 Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| October 9, 2012

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 45%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| 5%

Philadelphia Inquirer[https://web.archive.org/web/20121018113039/http://articles.philly.com/2012-10-12/news/34388596_1_senator-zero-bob-casey-inquirer-pennsylvania-poll Philadelphia Inquirer]

| align=center| October 4–8, 2012

| align=center| 600

| align=center| ± 4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 38%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 14%

Susquehanna Polling[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Susquehanna_PASen_1010.pdf Susquehanna Polling]

| align=center| October 4–6, 2012

| align=center| 725

| align=center| ± 3.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 46%

| align=center| 44%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 9%

Siena Poll[https://web.archive.org/web/20121010013915/http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/Siena_PA_political_FINAL.pdf Siena Poll]

| align=center| October 1–5, 2012

| align=center| 545

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 44%

| align=center| 35%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 16%

Muhlenberg College[http://www.muhlenberg.edu/pdf/main/academics/polisci/PA_LateSeptember_2012_Pres_Frequency.pdf Muhlenberg College] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121021003532/http://www.muhlenberg.edu/pdf/main/academics/polisci/PA_LateSeptember_2012_Pres_Frequency.pdf |date=October 21, 2012 }}

| align=center| September 22–26, 2012

| align=center| 427

| align=center| ± 5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 44%

| align=center| 36%

| align=center| 7%

| align=center| 13%

Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll[https://archive.today/20130102054638/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57520341/poll-obama-opens-substantial-leads-in-key-swing-states/?pageNum=3&tag=contentMain;contentBody Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll]

| align=center| September 18–24, 2012

| align=center| 1,180

| align=center| ± 3%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 43%

| align=center| —

Franklin & Marshall[https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keysep12_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121006001039/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keysep12_1.pdf |date=October 6, 2012 }}

| align=center| September 18–23, 2012

| align=center| 392

| align=center| ± 4.9%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 38%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 8%

Rasmussen Reports

| align=center| September 19, 2012

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 42%

| align=center| 2%

| align=center| 7%

Muhlenberg College[http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-document-pa-presidential-poll-20120918,0,4409695.htmlstory Muhlenberg College] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120922124420/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-document-pa-presidential-poll-20120918,0,4409695.htmlstory |date=September 22, 2012 }}

| align=center| September 10–16, 2012

| align=center| 640

| align=center| ± 4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 45%

| align=center| 33%

| align=center| 5%

| align=center| 18%

Philadelphia Inquirer[http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/poll/20120827_In_poll__voters_give_Casey_strong_lead__not_so_for_Corbett.html?viewAll=y Philadelphia Inquirer]

| align=center| August 21–23, 2012

| align=center| 601

| align=center| ± 4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 53%

| align=center| 34%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 13%

MCall/Muhlenberg Poll[https://archive.today/20130128141807/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-muhlenberg-poll-casey-leads-smith-20120824,0,5744330.story MCall/Muhlenberg Poll]

| align=center| August 20–22, 2012

| align=center| 422

| align=center| ± 5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 30%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20121023100930/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug12_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]

| align=center| August 7–12, 2012

| align=center| 681

| align=center| ± 3.8%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 35%

| align=center| 23%

| align=center| 2%

| {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 39%

Quinnipiac[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781 Quinnipiac] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120801182220/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781 |date=August 1, 2012 }}

| align=center| July 24–30, 2012

| align=center| 1,168

| align=center| ± 2.9%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 55%

| align=center| 37%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 8%

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_072512.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| July 21–23, 2012

| align=center| 758

| align=center| ± 3.6%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 46%

| align=center| 36%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

Rasmussen Reports

| align=center| July 18, 2012

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 38%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 9%

We Ask America[https://web.archive.org/web/20120712160702/http://weaskamerica.com/2012/07/11/pa-nm/ We Ask America]

| align=center| July 9–10, 2012

| align=center| 1,227

| align=center| ± 2.8%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 53%

| align=center| 39%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 8%

Quinnipiac[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1767 Quinnipiac] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121008120044/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1767 |date=October 8, 2012 }}

| align=center| June 19–25, 2012

| align=center| 1,252

| align=center| ± 2.8%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 32%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| 17%

Quinnipiac[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1761 Quinnipiac] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121008120048/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1761 |date=October 8, 2012 }}

| align=center| June 5–10, 2012

| align=center| 997

| align=center| ± 3.1%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 32%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| 14%

Franklin & Marshall College[https://web.archive.org/web/20121004083850/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjun12_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]

| align=center| May 29–June 4, 2012

| align=center| 412

| align=center| ± 4.8%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 42%

| align=center| 21%

| align=center| 2%

| align=center| 35%

Rasmussen Reports

| align=center| May 21, 2012

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.5%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 41%

| align=center| 3%

| align=center| 7%

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_052312.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| May 17–20, 2012

| align=center| 671

| align=center| ± 3.8%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 33%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 19%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| March 8–11, 2012

| align=center| 689

| align=center| ± 3.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 31%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 20%

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_11281205.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| November 17–20, 2011

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 32%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 20%

{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}

Republican primary

class="wikitable"

valign=bottom

! Poll source

! width=150px| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! width=40px| Jake
Corman

! width=40px| Laureen
Cummings

! width=40px| Charlie
Dent

! width=40px| Jim
Gerlach

! width=40px| Tim
Murphy

! width=40px| Rick
Santorum

! width=40px| Marc
Scaringi

! width=40px| Mark
Schweiker

! width=40px| Kim
Ward

! width=40px| Other/
Undecided

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_719.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| June 30 – July 5, 2011

| align=center| 376

| align=center| ± 5.1%

| align=center| 9%

| align=center| 5%

| align=center| 4%

| align=center| 7%

| align=center| 9%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 47%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 0%

| align=center| 18%

rowspan=2 align=center |Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_0110424.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| rowspan=2 align=center | January 3–5, 2011

| rowspan=2 align=center | 400

| rowspan=2 align=center | ± 4.9%

| align=center| 3%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 8%

| align=center| 9%

| align=center| 7%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 45%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| 8%

| align=center| 1%

| align=center| 19%

align=center| 9%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 10%

| align=center| 14%

| align=center| 13%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 1%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 18%

| align=center| 2%

| {{party shading/Undecided}} align=center| 33%

General election

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Generic
Republican

! style="width:100px;"| Depends on
the candidate

! Undecided

Quinnipiac[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1718 Quinnipiac] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120913042837/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1718 |date=September 13, 2012 }}

| align=center| March 7–12, 2012

| align=center| 1256

| align=center| ± 2.8%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 46%

| align=center| 34%

| align=center| 8%

| align=center| 12%

Morning Call[https://web.archive.org/web/20120720191951/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-rick-santorum-pa-voters-poll-results,0,4158894.htmlpage Morning Call]

| align=center| February 15–21, 2012

| align=center| 625

| align=center| ± 4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 40%

| align=center| 25%

| align=center| 20%

| align=center| 14%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Tim
Burns (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| November 17–20, 2011

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 34%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 17%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| David
Christian (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| March 8–11, 2012

| align=center| 689

| align=center| ± 3.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 50%

| align=center| 32%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Jake
Corman (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_713513.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| June 30 – July 5, 2011

| align=center| 545

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 35%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 14%

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_0414.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| April 7–10, 2011

| align=center| 593

| align=center| ± 4.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 35%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 14%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Laureen
Cummings (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| June 30 – July 5, 2011

| align=center| 545

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 31%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| April 7–10, 2011

| align=center| 593

| align=center| ± 4.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 32%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 17%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Charlie
Dent (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| April 7–10, 2011

| align=center| 593

| align=center| ± 4.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 31%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

Municipoll [http://municipoll.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/docs/PA_Poll_2-24-11.54104948.pdf Municipoll ]

| align=center| February 21–23, 2011

| align=center| 670

| align=center| ± 3.79.%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 32%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 17%

Public Policy Polling [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_01070704.pdf Public Policy Polling ]

| align=center| January 3–5, 2011

| align=center| 547

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 31%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Jim
Gerlach (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| June 30 – July 5, 2011

| align=center| 545

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 33%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 17%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| April 7–10, 2011

| align=center| 593

| align=center| ± 4.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 50%

| align=center| 32%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 19%

Municipoll

| align=center| February 21–23, 2011

| align=center| 670

| align=center| ± 3.79.%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 34%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 17%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| January 3–5, 2011

| align=center| 547

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 33%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Tim
Murphy (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| June 30 – July 5, 2011

| align=center| 545

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 47%

| align=center| 35%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Sam
Rohrer (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| March 8–11, 2012

| align=center| 689

| align=center| ± 3.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 34%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 17%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| November 17–20, 2011

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 47%

| align=center| 36%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 16%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Rick
Santorum (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Morning Call

| align=center| February 15–21, 2012

| align=center| 625

| align=center| ± 4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 44%

| align=center| 36%

| align=center| 7%

| align=center| 12%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| November 17–20, 2011

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 39%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 11%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| June 30 – July 5, 2011

| align=center| 545

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 39%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 13%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| April 7–10, 2011

| align=center| 593

| align=center| ± 4.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 37%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 13%

Municipoll

| align=center| February 21–23, 2011

| align=center| 670

| align=center| ± 3.79.%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 50%

| align=center| 38%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 12%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| January 3–5, 2011

| align=center| 547

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 48%

| align=center| 41%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 10%

Public Policy Polling [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_624.pdf Public Policy Polling ]

| align=center| June 19–21, 2010

| align=center| 609

| align=center| ± 4.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 39%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 10%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Marc
Scaringi (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| March 8–11, 2012

| align=center| 689

| align=center| ± 3.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 29%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 22%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| June 30 – July 5, 2011

| align=center| 545

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 47%

| align=center| 29%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 24%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| April 7–10, 2011

| align=center| 593

| align=center| ± 4.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 51%

| align=center| 28%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 21%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| January 3–5, 2011

| align=center| 547

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 50%

| align=center| 27%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 22%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Mark
Schweiker (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| January 3–5, 2011

| align=center| 547

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 47%

| align=center| 34%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 18%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Kim
Ward (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| April 7–10, 2011

| align=center| 593

| align=center| ± 4.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 50%

| align=center| 29%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 21%

class="wikitable"

valign= bottom

! Poll source

! style="width:150px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Steve
Welch (R)

! Other

! Undecided

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| March 8–11, 2012

| align=center| 689

| align=center| ± 3.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 49%

| align=center| 31%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 22%

Public Policy Polling

| align=center| November 17–20, 2011

| align=center| 500

| align=center| ± 4.4%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| 47%

| align=center| 33%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 20%

= Results =

Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he could win. Casey did win by more than expected, which can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County, home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in statewide elections in Pennsylvania. Casey also performed well in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh. Casey also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it wasn't enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013.

{{Election box begin | title=United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012{{Cite web|url=https://electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=27&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0|title=Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results|website=electionreturns.pa.gov}}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| candidate = Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent)

| votes = 3,021,364

| percentage = 53.69%

| change = -4.95%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| candidate = Tom Smith

| votes = 2,509,132

| percentage = 44.59%

| change = +3.31%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Libertarian Party (United States)

| candidate = Rayburn Smith

| votes = 96,926

| percentage = 1.72%

| change = N/A

}}

{{Election box total

| votes = 5,627,422

| percentage = 100.00%

| change = N/A

}}

{{Election box hold with party link no swing

| winner = Democratic Party (United States)

}}

==Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican==

Armstrong (Largest city: Kittanning)
Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
Clearfield (Largest township: DuBois)
Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage)
Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)
Columbia (Largest city: Bloomsburg)
Elk (Largest city: St. Marys)
Forest (Largest city: Marienville)
Indiana (Largest city: Indiana)
Somerset (largest city: Somerset)
Schuylkill (Largest city: Pottsville)
Warren (Largest city: Warren)
Westmoreland (Largest township: Hempfield Township)
Washington (Largest township: Peters Township)

==By congressional district==

Casey won 9 of the 18 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans.{{cite web|url=https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/07/09/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts|title=Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts|website=Daily Kos|access-date=11 August 2020}}

class=wikitable

! District

! Smith

! Casey

! Representative

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|1|1st}}

| 15.85%

| 83.36%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Bob Brady

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|2|2nd}}

| 8.61%

| 90.74%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Chaka Fattah

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|3|3rd}}

| 53.94%

| 43.87%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Mike Kelly

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|4|4th}}

| rowspan=2|54.81%

| rowspan=2|42.78%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Jason Altmire

align=center

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Scott Perry

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|5|5th}}

| 55.83%

| 41.46%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Glenn Thompson

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|6|6th}}

| 48.56%

| 49.72%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Jim Gerlach

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|7|7th}}

| 48.23%

| 50.58%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Pat Meehan

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|8|8th}}

| 47.74%

| 50.94%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Mike Fitzpatrick

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|9|9th}}

| 58.99%

| 38.94%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Bill Shuster

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|10|10th}}

| 58.12%

| 39.84%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Tom Marino

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|11|11th}}

| 51.35%

| 46.54%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Lou Barletta

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|12|12th}}

| rowspan=2|52.79%

| rowspan=2|45.31%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Mark Critz

align=center

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Keith Rothfus

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|13|13th}}

| 30.84%

| 68.37%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Allyson Schwartz

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|14|14th}}

| 27.74%

| 70.02%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Mike Doyle

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|15|15th}}

| 48.2%

| 50.02%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Charlie Dent

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|16|16th}}

| 51.6%

| 46.52%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Joe Pitts

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|17|17th}}

| rowspan=2|40.96%

| rowspan=2|57.28%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Tim Holden

align=center

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Matt Cartwright

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Pennsylvania|18|18th}}

| 53.4%

| 44.81%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Tim Murphy

References

External links

[http://www.dos.state.pa.us/ Pennsylvania Department of State] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120212190700/http://www.dos.state.pa.us/ |date=February 12, 2012 }}
[http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=PAS2&cycle=2012 Campaign contributions] at OpenSecrets.org
[http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/outside-spending/race_detail/S/PA/00/ Outside spending] at Sunlight Foundation
[http://senate.ontheissues.org/2012_PA_Senate.htm Issue positions] at On the Issues

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[https://web.archive.org/web/20121031155411/http://www.bobcasey.com/ Bob Casey, Jr. for U.S. Senate]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20121025194018/http://tomsmithforsenate.com/ Tom Smith for U.S. Senate]

United States Senate

Pennsylvania

2012

2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

Background

Democratic primary

= Candidates =

= Results =

Republican primary

= Candidates =

== On ballot ==

== Withdrew ==

== Declined ==

= Campaign =

= Polling =

= Results =

General election

= Candidates =

= Debates =

= Fundraising =

== Top contributors ==

== Top industries ==

= Predictions =

=Polling=

= Results =

==Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican==

==By congressional district==

See also

References

External links