2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use American English|date=January 2025}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=December 2017}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
| country = Wisconsin
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2006 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
| previous_year = 2006
| next_election = 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
| next_year = 2018
| election_date = November 6, 2012
| image_size = x150px
| turnout = 72.5% (voting eligible){{cite web |url=http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html |title=2012 General Election Turnout Rates |publisher=George Mason University |author=Michael McDonald |date=February 9, 2013 |access-date=April 3, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html |archive-date=April 24, 2013 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
| image1 = Tammy Baldwin, official photo portrait, color (cropped).jpg
| nominee1 = Tammy Baldwin
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| popular_vote1 = 1,547,104
| percentage1 = 51.41%
| image2 = File:Tommy Thompson 1 (3x4) a.jpg
| nominee2 = Tommy Thompson
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 = 1,380,126
| percentage2 = 45.86%
| map_image = {{switcher |260px |County results |260px|Congressional district results |260px |Precinct results |default=1}}
| map_size = 250px
| map_caption = Baldwin: {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|80–90%}} {{legend0|#0D0596|>90%}}
Thompson: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#D72F30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#C21B18|80–90%}} {{legend0|#A80000|>90%}}
{{legend0|#d2b1d9|Tie}} {{legend0|#808080|No data}}
| title = U.S. Senator
| before_election = Herb Kohl
| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| after_election = Tammy Baldwin
| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)
}}
{{ElectionsWI}}
The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.
Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.
Background
Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement.{{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/106628683.html |title=Kohl says he'll work with Johnson |date=November 3, 2010 |access-date=November 29, 2010 |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel |first=Bill |last=Glauber}} There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement.{{cite news |url=http://chippewa.com/news/local/article_9e9dbc76-e826-11df-85e2-001cc4c002e0.html |title=Feingold won't seek office in 2012, official says |date=November 4, 2010 |access-date=November 29, 2010 |work=Chippewa Herald |first=Dee |last=Hall}} Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.
Democratic primary
Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.
= Candidates =
== Declared ==
== Declined ==
- Tom Barrett, mayor of Milwaukee{{cite news |url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0511/Barrett_closes_door_on_Senate_speculation.html |title=Barrett closes door on Senate speculation |date=May 17, 2011 |access-date=May 17, 2011 |work=Politico |first=Alexander|last=Burns}}
- Kathleen Falk, former Dane County executive (1997–2011){{cite news |url=http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/falk-announces.php |title=Falk Announces Candidacy in Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race |date=January 18, 2012 |access-date=January 28, 2012 |work=National Journal |first=Sean |last=Sullivan |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120122011157/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/falk-announces.php |archive-date=January 22, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Russ Feingold, former U.S. senator{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/russ-feingold-not-running-in-2012/2011/08/19/gIQALSkjPJ_blog.html |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=August 19, 2011 |first=Krissah |last=Thompson |title=Russ Feingold not running in 2012}}
- Steve Kagen, former U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2006–2011){{cite web |url=http://dc.wispolitics.com/2012/01/baldwin-kicks-off-jobs-tour-receives.html |title=Baldwin kicks off jobs tour; receives Kagen endorsement |date=January 5, 2012 |access-date=January 28, 2012 |work=Wispolitics.com |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120508182109/http://dc.wispolitics.com/2012/01/baldwin-kicks-off-jobs-tour-receives.html |archive-date=May 8, 2012 |url-status=dead}}
- Ron Kind, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district{{cite news |url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0911/Exclusive_Rep_Kind_says_no_to_Senate_run.html |title=Rep. Kind says no to Senate run |date=September 15, 2011 |access-date=September 15, 2011 |work=Politico |first=David |last=Catanese}}
- Herb Kohl, incumbent U.S. senator{{cite news |url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/Herb-Kohl-Retiring-Senate-Wisconsin-2012-205591-1.html |title=Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl to Retire |date=May 13, 2011}}{{cite news |url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0511/Herb_Kohl_wont_seek_reelection.html?showall |title=Herb Kohl won't seek reelection |website=Politico}}
- Gwen Moore, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district{{Cite web |url=http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=250796 |title=Baldwin Campaign: Rep. Gwen Moore endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate |website=WisPolitics.com |access-date=October 21, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120402172250/http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=250796 |archive-date=April 2, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Tim Sullivan, businessman{{cite web |url=http://dc.wispolitics.com/2011/11/former-bucyrus-head-unlikely-to-jump.html |title=Former Bucyrus head unlikely to jump into races next year |date=November 18, 2011 |access-date=November 21, 2011 |work=WisPolitics.com |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111211211815/http://dc.wispolitics.com/2011/11/former-bucyrus-head-unlikely-to-jump.html |archive-date=December 11, 2011 |url-status=dead}}
= Polling =
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{Small|Margin of ! style="width:75px;"| Tammy ! style="width:75px;"| Jon ! style="width:75px;"| Russ ! style="width:75px;"| Kathleen ! style="width:75px;"| Steve ! style="width:75px;"| Ron ! style="width:75px;"| Barbara ! style="width:75px;"| Gwen ! Other/ |
| style="text-align:left" rowspan=2 |Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0527.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| rowspan=2 | May 19–22, 2011 | rowspan=2 | 783 | rowspan=2 | ±3.5% | 12% | 5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 70% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 30%
| 13% | — | 4% | 17% | 16% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
| style="text-align:left" rowspan=2 |Magellan Strategies[http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Wisconsin-2012-US-Senate-Democrat-Primary-Election-Survey-Topline-Results-071411.pdf Magellan Strategies]
| rowspan=2 | July 12–13, 2011 | rowspan=2 | 627 | rowspan=2 | ±3.9% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46% | — | — | — | 21% | — | — | — | 33% |
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 41%
| — | — | — | — | 19% | — | — | 40% |
| style="text-align:left" rowspan=2 |Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0817513.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| rowspan=2 | August 12–14, 2011 | rowspan=2 | 387 | rowspan=2 | ±5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48% | — | — | — | 19% | — | — | — | 33% |
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 37%
| — | — | — | 15% | 21% | — | — | 27% |
{{hidden end}}
= Results =
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Democratic primary results{{cite web |url=http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Percentage%20Results_8.14.12%20primary.pdf |title=Canvass Results for 2012 Partisan Primary - 8/14/2012 |access-date=September 22, 2012 |publisher=Wisconsin Government Accountability Board |archive-date=October 29, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131029204626/http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Percentage%20Results_8.14.12%20primary.pdf |url-status=dead}}
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Tammy Baldwin
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 185,265
| percentage = 99.77
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Write ins
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 424
| percentage = 0.23
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 185,689
| percentage = 100
}}
{{Election box end}}
Republican primary
Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.{{cite news|last=Gilbert |first=Craig |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/43705712.html |title=Ryan shines as GOP seeks vision |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel |date=April 25, 2009|access-date=June 29, 2010}} Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.{{cite news |last=Catanese |first=David |url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0511/Ryan_telling_GOPers_hes_unlikely_to_run_.html |title=Ryan telling GOPers he's unlikely to run |newspaper=Politico |date=May 16, 2011 |access-date=May 17, 2011}} He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.{{Cite web |url=https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=409667 |title=Our Campaigns - WI US Senate - R Primary Race - Aug 14, 2012 |website=Our Campaigns}}
= Candidates =
== Declared ==
- Jeff Fitzgerald, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly{{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/jeff-fitzgerald-announces-senate-bid-131519063.html |title=Jeff Fitzgerald announces Senate bid |date=October 11, 2011 |access-date=October 11, 2011 |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel |first=Patrick |last=Marley}}
- Eric Hovde, businessman{{cite news |url=http://www.leadertelegram.com/news/front_page/article_8f25fbd4-602d-11e1-8d24-0019bb2963f4.html |title=Hovde emerges as new Senate candidate |newspaper=Leader-Telegram |access-date=February 27, 2012 |archive-date=March 4, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304031455/http://www.leadertelegram.com/news/front_page/article_8f25fbd4-602d-11e1-8d24-0019bb2963f4.html |url-status=dead}}
- Mark Neumann, former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998, and candidate for governor in 2010[http://www.wbay.com/story/15351054/republican-neumann-announces-senate-run Republican Neumann announces Senate run] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110928030928/http://www.wbay.com/story/15351054/republican-neumann-announces-senate-run |date=September 28, 2011}} WBAY-TV. August 29, 2011. Retrieved August 29, 2011Kyle Trygstad. (August 29, 2011)[http://www.rollcall.com/news/-208393-1.html?pos=hln Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann Enters Wisconsin Senate Race] Roll Call. Retrieved August 29, 2011
- Tommy Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin and former secretary of Health and Human Services{{cite news |url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/Tommy_Thompson_Wisconsin_Senate_Bid_Official-208823-1.html?pos=hln |title=Tommy Thompson Makes Wisconsin Senate Bid Official |date=September 19, 2011 |access-date=September 19, 2011}}
== Withdrew ==
- Frank Lasee, state senator{{cite news |url=http://www.channel3000.com/news/30327852/detail.html |title=State Senator Lasee Drops Out Of U.S. Senate Race |website=Channel3000.com |access-date=February 15, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120202080622/http://www.channel3000.com/news/30327852/detail.html |archive-date=February 2, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}} (endorsed Eric Hovde)
- Kip Smith, physical therapist{{Cite news |url=http://wisconsin.onpolitix.com/news/106086/republican-kip-smith-enters-2012-u-s-senate-race |title=Kip Smith enters U.S. Senate race |website=onpolitics |publisher=WLUK-TV |access-date=January 1, 2023 |archive-date=July 18, 2012 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20120718232143/http://wisconsin.onpolitix.com/news/106086/republican-kip-smith-enters-2012-u-s-senate-race |url-status=dead}}
== Declined ==
- Mark Andrew Green, former U.S. representative and former United States ambassador to Tanzania{{cite news |url=http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/news/local/green_bay/former-u-s-rep-mark-green-backs-tommy-thompson-for-senate|archive-url=https://archive.today/20130123113310/http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/news/local/green_bay/former-u-s-rep-mark-green-backs-tommy-thompson-for-senate|url-status=dead|archive-date=January 23, 2013|title=Green backs Thompson for Senate|date=September 16, 2011|access-date=December 18, 2011|publisher=WLUK-TV|agency=Associated Press}}
- Theodore Kanavas, former state senator{{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/130773358.html |title=Kanavas says he won't run for U.S. Senate |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel}}
- Paul Ryan, U.S. representative{{cite news |url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/Ryan-Out-Thompson-In-Wisconsin-Senate-205679-1.html?pos=hln|title=Ryan Out, Thompson to Get in Wisconsin Senate Race|date=May 17, 2011 |work=Roll Call}}
- Tim Sullivan, businessman
- J. B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general{{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/127969353.html?wpisrc=nl_fix |title=Thompson takes step toward Senate run |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel}}
=Polling=
| class="wikitable" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! Date(s) administered ! class=small | Sample ! {{small|Margin of}} ! style="width:80px;"| Jeff ! style="width:80px;"| Eric ! style="width:80px;"| Mark ! style="width:80px;"| Tommy ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_809.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| style="text-align:center"| August 8–9, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 557 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.2% | style="text-align:center"| 15% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 27% | style="text-align:center"| 24% | style="text-align:center"| 25% | style="text-align:center"| 9% |
| Marquette University[https://law.marquette.edu/poll/ Marquette University]
| style="text-align:center"| August 2–5, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 519 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.4% | style="text-align:center"| 13% | style="text-align:center"| 20% | style="text-align:center"| 18% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 28% | style="text-align:center"| 7% |
| We Ask America[https://web.archive.org/web/20120802201938/http://weaskamerica.com/2012/07/31/mojo/ We Ask America]
| style="text-align:center"| July 31, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 1,237 | style="text-align:center"| ± 2.8% | style="text-align:center"| 12% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 23% | style="text-align:center"| 17% | style="text-align:center"| 23% | {{party shading/Undecided}} align="center"| 25% |
| rowspan=2|Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_731.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| July 30–31, 2012 | style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| 400 | style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| ± 4.9% | style="text-align:center"| 13% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 28% | style="text-align:center"| 25% | style="text-align:center"| 25% | style="text-align:center"| 9% |
| style="text-align:center"| —
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 33% | style="text-align:center"| 27% | style="text-align:center"| 30% | style="text-align:center"| 10% |
| Marquette University[https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2012/07/11/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-tighter-u-s-senate-race-and-gop-primary/ Marquette University]
| style="text-align:center"| July 5–8, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 432 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.8% | style="text-align:center"| 6% | style="text-align:center"| 23% | style="text-align:center"| 10% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 35% | style="text-align:center"| 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_070912.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| style="text-align:center"| July 5–8, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 564 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.1% | style="text-align:center"| 9% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 31% | style="text-align:center"| 15% | style="text-align:center"| 29% | style="text-align:center"| 16% |
| OnMessage Inc.[https://web.archive.org/web/20120708231300/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/07/hovde-trails-th.php OnMessage Inc.]{{+}}
| style="text-align:center"| June 26–27, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 600 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.0% | style="text-align:center"| 7% | style="text-align:center"| 29% | style="text-align:center"| 16% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 34% | style="text-align:center"| 14% |
| Marquette University[https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2012/06/20/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-thompson-leading-u-s-senate-race/ Marquette University]
| style="text-align:center"| June 13–16, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 344 | style="text-align:center"| ± 5.4% | style="text-align:center"| 10% | style="text-align:center"| 14% | style="text-align:center"| 16% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 34% | style="text-align:center"| 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WIMD_401.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| style="text-align:center"| March 31–April 1, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 609 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.0% | style="text-align:center"| 18% | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 25% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 38% | style="text-align:center"| 19% |
| rowspan=4|Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_022912.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| February 23–26, 2012 | style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| 556 | style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| ± 4.2% | style="text-align:center"| 22% | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 22% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 39% | style="text-align:center"| 17% |
| style="text-align:center"| 32%
| style="text-align:center"| — | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 42% | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 26% |
| style="text-align:center"| 37%
| style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| — | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 46% | style="text-align:center"| 17% |
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 36% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 46% | style="text-align:center"| 18% |
| rowspan=4|Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NVWI_1025.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| October 20–23, 2011 | style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| 650 | style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| ± 3.8% | style="text-align:center"| 21% | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 29% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 35% | style="text-align:center"| 11% |
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 39% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 43% | style="text-align:center"| 17% |
| style="text-align:center"| 28%
| style="text-align:center"| — | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 44% | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 28% |
| style="text-align:center"| 35%
| style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| — | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 47% | style="text-align:center"| 17% |
| Public Policy Polling
| style="text-align:center"| August 12–14, 2011 | style="text-align:center"| 362 | style="text-align:center"| ± 5.2% | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 39% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 47% | style="text-align:center"| 13% |
| rowspan=2|Magellan Strategies[http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Wisconsin-2012-US-Senate-Republican-Primary-Survey-Topline-Results-071411.pdf Magellan Strategies]
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| July 12–13, 2011 | style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| 638 | style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| ± 3.9% | style="text-align:center"| 15% | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 26% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 41% | style="text-align:center"| 18% |
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 36% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 44% | style="text-align:center"| 20% |
- {{+}} Commissioned by Eric Hovde
| class="wikitable" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) administered ! class=small | Sample ! {{small|Margin of}} ! style="width:100px;"| Tommy ! style="width:100px;"| {{nowrap|Someone more}} ! Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling
| style="text-align:center"| July 30–31, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 400 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.9% | style="text-align:center"| 29% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 58% | style="text-align:center"| 13% |
| Public Policy Polling
| style="text-align:center"| July 5–8, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 564 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.1% | style="text-align:center"| 34% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 50% | style="text-align:center"| 17% |
| Public Policy Polling
| style="text-align:center"| February 23–26, 2012 | style="text-align:center"| 556 | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.2% | style="text-align:center"| 37% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 47% | style="text-align:center"| 17% |
| Public Policy Polling
| style="text-align:center"| October 20–23, 2011 | style="text-align:center"| 650 | style="text-align:center"| ± 3.8% | style="text-align:center"| 35% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| 51% | style="text-align:center"| 14% |
= Endorsements =
{{Endorsements box | columns = 2
| title = Jeff Fitzgerald
| list =
- Scott Suder, Wisconsin Assembly Majority Leader (Abbotsford){{cite news |url=https://www.hngnews.com/sun_prairie_star/ |title=Sun Prairie Star}}{{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
- Robin Vos, Wisconsin Assembly Finance Chair (Rochester){{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
- Joan Ballweg, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Chair (Markesan){{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
- Mary Williams, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Secretary (Medford){{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
- Samantha Kerkman, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Sergeant at Arms (Randall){{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
- Bill Kramer, Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Pro-Temp (Waukesha)[http://sunprairiestar.com/main.asp?SectionID=55&SubSectionID=161&ArticleID=8761 "Fitzgerald announces Waukesha endorsements"]. Sun Prairie Star
- Dan Knodl, Wisconsin Assembly Assistant Assembly Majority Leader (Germantown){{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
- Joel Kleefisch, Wisconsin State Representative (Oconomowoc)
- Don Pridemore, Wisconsin State Representative (Hartford)
- Paul Farrow, Wisconsin State Representative (Pewaukee)
- Dale Kooyenga, Wisconsin State Representative (Brookfield)
- Mike Kuglitsch, Wisconsin State Representative (New Berlin)
- Jim Ott, Wisconsin State Representative (Brown Deer)
}}
{{Endorsements box | columns = 2
| title = Eric Hovde
| list =
- Frank Lasee, Wisconsin State Senator (De Pere)
- Leah Vukmir, Wisconsin State Senator (Wauwatosa)
- FreedomWorks{{cite news |url=https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/119549-freedomworks-splits-with-other-conservatives-endorses-hovde-in-wisconsin/ |work=The Hill |title=FreedomWorks splits with other conservatives, endorses Hovde in Wisconsin}}
}}
{{Endorsements box | columns = 2
| title = Mark Neumann
| list =
- Club for Growth{{Cite web |url=http://www.clubforgrowth.org/endorsedcandidates/ |title=CFG PAC endorses Kevin Cramer in North Dakota |access-date=October 12, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111006124727/http://www.clubforgrowth.org/endorsedcandidates/ |archive-date=October 6, 2011 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Family Research Council{{Cite web |url=https://www.frcaction.org/advanced-search |title=FRC Action |publisher=Family Research Council}}
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator (KY){{cite news |url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/11/huffpost-fundrace----perr_n_1089105.html |work=The Huffington Post |first=Paul |last=Blumenthal |title=HUFFPOST FUNDRACE -- Perry Spends Big |date=November 11, 2011}}
- Tom Coburn, U.S. Senator (OK){{cite news |url=https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/178441-sen-coburn-endorses-neumann-in-wis-senate-race/ |title=Sen. Coburn endorses Neumann in Wis. Senate race |first=Cameron |last=Joseph |date=November 12, 2011}}
- Jim DeMint, U.S. Senator (SC){{cite news |url=https://www.rollcall.com/2011/11/28/jim-demint-backs-wisconsin-senate-hopeful-over-tommy-thompson/ |title=Jim DeMint Backs Wisconsin Senate Hopeful Over Tommy Thompson |date=November 28, 2011 |website=Roll Call}}
- Mike Lee, U.S. Senator (UT){{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/148022855.html |title=Utah senator endorses Neumann |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel}}
- Jack Voight, former Wisconsin State Treasurer[http://wispolitics.com/1006/120126_Neumann_100B.pdf WIS Politics] {{Dead link|date=April 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes}}
- Kurt W. Schuller, Wisconsin State Treasurer
- GING PAC, a PAC of Social Conservatives{{Cite web |url=http://www.gingpac.org/mark-neumann-wins-two-key-endorsements-for-senate-race |title=Mark Neumann Wins Two Key Endorsements For Senate Race |access-date=February 27, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160317014619/http://gingpac.org/mark-neumann-wins-two-key-endorsements-for-senate-race/ |archive-date=March 17, 2016 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Pat Toomey, U.S. Senator (PA){{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/161087815.html |title=Neumann endorsed by Sen. Toomey |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel}}
- Wisconsin Right to Life{{Cite web |url=http://wrtl.org/mec/ |title=My Election Central |publisher=Wisconsin Right to Life |access-date=July 23, 2012 |archive-date=July 23, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120723062333/http://www.wrtl.org/mec/ |url-status=dead}}
- Mark Levin, Nationally Syndicated Talk Show Host{{Cite web |url=http://impeachobamatoday.blogspot.com/2012/08/mark-levin-endorses-mark-neumann-for-us.html |title=Impeach McConnell, Boehner, and Cantor Today: Mark Levin endorses Mark Neumann for US Senate in Wisconsin GOP primary, 8/14/12 |date=August 6, 2012}}
}}
{{Endorsements box | columns = 2
| title = Tommy Thompson
| list =
Politicians
- Herman Cain, business executive, radio host, syndicated columnist, former candidate for the 2012 U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.{{Cite news |url=http://waukesha.patch.com/articles/herman-cain-stumps-for-tommy-thompson-at-waukesha-rally|title=Herman Cain Stumps for Tommy Thompson at Waukesha Rally|date=August 13, 2012}}
- Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House of Representatives, and 2012 presidential candidate{{Cite web |url=http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/ |title=Endorsements |access-date=May 9, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120609045717/http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/ |archive-date=June 9, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana{{Cite web |url=http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/ |title=Endorsements |access-date=May 9, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120609045717/http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/ |archive-date=June 9, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City and 2008 Presidential Candidate{{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/145021415.html |title=Rudy Giuliani, Milwaukee Police Association backing Tommy Thompson |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel |author=Don Walker |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150509155522/http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/145021415.html |archive-date=May 9, 2015 |url-status=live}}
- Lamar Alexander, U.S. senator from Tennessee{{Cite news |url=http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_60/tommy_thompson_picks_up_senate_endorsements-210366-1.html |title=Tommy Thompson Picks Up Senate Endorsements |author=Abby Livingston |work=Roll Call |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111117002212/http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_60/tommy_thompson_picks_up_senate_endorsements-210366-1.html |archive-date=November 17, 2011 |url-status=dead}}
- John Hoeven, U.S. senator from North Dakota
- Mike Johanns, U.S. senator from Nebraska
- Jim Risch, U.S. senator from Idaho
- Mark Green, former U.S. representative and former United States Ambassador to Tanzania
- J.B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general
- Cathy Zeuske, former Wisconsin state treasurer
- Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, 2008 presidential candidate and Fox News talk show host{{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/huckabee-endorses-thompson-slams-club-for-growth-tr3f7ar-135710398.html |title=Huckabee endorses Thompson, slams Club for Growth|date=December 15, 2011 |access-date=December 18, 2011 |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel |first=Don |last=Walker |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120111234455/http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/huckabee-endorses-thompson-slams-club-for-growth-tr3f7ar-135710398.html |archive-date=January 11, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Scott Klug, former U.S. representative (WI)
- Margaret Farrow, former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin
- Mike Leavitt, former governor of Utah, former Administrator of the EPA, and former Secretary of Health and Human Services{{Cite news |url=https://archive.jsonline.com/blogs/news/146970885.html/ |title=Seven former governors endorse Thompson |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel}}
- John Engler, former governor of Michigan
- Dirk Kempthorne, former governor of Idaho and former Secretary of the Interior
- Frank Keating, former governor of Oklahoma
- Tom Ridge, former governor of Pennsylvania and former Secretary of Homeland Security
- Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts
- Bill Graves, former governor of Kansas
- Jeb Bush, former Florida governor
Celebrities and political commentators{{Cite web |url=http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/2012/06/21/see-the-full-list/ |title=See the full list |access-date=July 25, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120725202346/http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/2012/06/21/see-the-full-list/ |archive-date=July 25, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Ted Nugent, musician and conservative activist {{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/144434255.html |title='The Nuge' endorses Tommy Thompson |author=Don Walker |work=Milwaukee Journal Sentinel |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120330015632/http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/144434255.html |archive-date=March 30, 2012 |url-status=live}}
- Michael Reagan, author, radio host, and son of President Ronald Reagan
- Dick Morris, political strategist, author, Fox News analyst, former adviser to President Bill Clinton{{Cite news |url=https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeedpolitics/the-coveted-dick-morris-endorsement |title=The Coveted Dick Morris Endorsement |website=BuzzFeed News |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180811112749/https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeedpolitics/the-coveted-dick-morris-endorsement |archive-date=August 11, 2018 |url-status=live}}
- Joe Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. Joe the Plumber{{Cite web |url=http://shorewood.patch.com/articles/joe-the-plumber-supports-thompson-because-he-gets-stuff-done |title=Joe the Plumber Supports Thompson Because He 'Gets Stuff Done' - Shor… |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130131032804/http://shorewood.patch.com/articles/joe-the-plumber-supports-thompson-because-he-gets-stuff-done |archive-date=31 January 2013 |url-status=dead}}
- Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
- Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
- Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary
- John Gard, former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker
- State Senator Rob Cowles
- State Senator Mike Ellis
- Rep. Evan Wynn (Whitewater)
- Rep. Joseph Knilans (Janesville)
- State Senator Sheila Harsdorf
- State Senator Luther Olsen
- State Senator Dale Schultz
- State Senator Jerry Petrowski
- Van Wanggaard, former state senator
Political organization officials
- David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association of America and former chairman of the American Conservative Union{{Cite web |last=Byers |first=Dylan |date=25 March 2014 |title=David Keene, the endorsement editor |url=https://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/03/david-keene-the-endorsement-editor-185686 |access-date=4 June 2024 |website=Politico}}
- Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
- Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
- Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
- Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
- Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin
- Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
- Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel
- Wisconsin Right to Life
- Dairy Business Association
- Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
- Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
- Milwaukee Police Association
- Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
- Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
- Wisconsin Grocers Association
- Wisconsin Restaurant Association
- Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
- Wisconsin Health Care Association
- Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
- GOProud{{Cite web |url=http://www.goproud.org/pages/news--press/2012/goproud-announces-u.s.-house-endorsements |title=GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements - GOProud, Inc. |date=October 25, 2012 |access-date=September 17, 2017 |archive-date=October 25, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121025012745/http://www.goproud.org/pages/news--press/2012/goproud-announces-u.s.-house-endorsements |url-status=dead}}
}}
= Results =
[[File:2012 WI US Senate GOP primary.svg|thumb|Results by county
{{collapsible list
| title = {{legend|#d35f5f|Thompson}}
|{{legend|#e9afaf|20–30%}}
|{{legend|#de8787|30–40%}}
|{{legend|#d35f5f|40–50%}}
|{{legend|#c83737|50–60%}}
|{{legend|#a02c2c|60–70%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
| title = {{legend|#5f8dd3|Hovde}}
|{{legend|#87aade|30–40%}}
|{{legend|#5f8dd3|40–50%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
| title = {{legend|#8dd35f|Neumann}}
|{{legend|#aade87|30–40%}}
|{{legend|#8dd35f|40–50%}}
}}
]]{{Election box begin no change
| title = Republican primary results
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Tommy Thompson
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 197,928
| percentage = 34.0
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Eric Hovde
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 179,557
| percentage = 30.8
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Mark Neumann
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 132,786
| percentage = 22.8
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Jeff Fitzgerald
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 71,871
| percentage = 12.3
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Write ins
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 244
| percentage = 0.04
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 582,630
| percentage = 100
}}
{{Election box end}}
General election
File:Baldwin-Thompson debate.jpg's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.]]
= Candidates =
- Tammy Baldwin (Democratic), U.S. Representative
- Tommy Thompson (Republican), former governor and former Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Joseph Kexel (Libertarian), IT consultant{{cite web |url=http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/120420_Kexel.pdf |title=Kexel Announces Run for US Senate |date=April 20, 2012 |access-date=September 22, 2012 |website=Wispolitics.com |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303231853/http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/120420_Kexel.pdf |archive-date=March 3, 2016 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
- Nimrod Allen III (independent), consultant and former Marine{{cite web |url=http://wispolitics.com/1006/120720_Nimrod_Allen_bio___press_release_7_20.pdf |title=Nimrod Allen III Independent Candidate for U.S. Senate |date=July 20, 2012 |access-date=September 22, 2012 |website=Wispolitics.com |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303173630/http://wispolitics.com/1006/120720_Nimrod_Allen_bio___press_release_7_20.pdf |archive-date=March 3, 2016 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}
= Debates =
Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.
The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.
The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.
The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.
External links
- [https://www.c-span.org/video/?308335-1/wisconsin-senate-debate Complete video of debate], September 28, 2012 - C-SPAN
- [https://www.c-span.org/video/?308846-1/wisconsin-senate-debate Complete video of debate], October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN
- [https://www.c-span.org/video/?309085-1/wisconsin-senate-debate Complete video of debate], October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN
= Fundraising =
| class="wikitable sortable" |
| Candidate (party)
! Receipts ! Disbursements ! Cash on hand ! Debt |
|---|
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | Tammy Baldwin (D)
| $14,643,869 | $15,204,940 | $143,852 | $0 |
| {{party shading/Republican}} | Tommy Thompson (R)
| $9,585,823 | $9,582,888 | $2,934 | $0 |
| colspan=5 | Source: Federal Election Commission{{cite web |url=http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSState.do |title=2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Wisconsin |publisher=Federal Election Commission |date=November 26, 2012 |access-date=December 19, 2012 }} |
== Top contributors ==
| class="wikitable sortable" |
| Tammy Baldwin
! Contribution ! Tommy Thompson ! Contribution |
|---|
| EMILY's List
| $431,843 | Michael Best & Friedrich LLP | $36,825 |
| MoveOn.org
| $171,467 | $28,500 |
| University of Wisconsin
| $117,600 | Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld | $28,250 |
| J Street PAC
| $113,758 | $27,500 |
| League of Conservation Voters
| $95,308 | Wisconsin Energy Corporation | $25,750 |
| Democracy Engine
| $81,330 | American Foods Group | $25,000 |
| Council for a Livable World
| $54,130 | $23,000 |
| Voices for Progress
| $25,749 | $20,750 |
| Marshfield Clinic
| $21,800 | BGR Group | $20,500 |
| Microsoft Corporation
| $18,564 | $20,000 |
| colspan=5 | Source: OpenSecrets{{cite web |url=http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=WIS1&spec=N |title=Top Contributors 2012 Race: Wisconsin Senate |website=OpenSecrets |date=March 25, 2013}} |
== Top industries ==
| class="wikitable sortable" |
| Tammy Baldwin
! Contribution ! Tommy Thompson ! Contribution |
|---|
| Women's Issues
| $915,482 | Retired | $858,276 |
| Retired
| $791,756 | $244,804 |
| Lawyers/Law Firms
| $597,674 | $243,636 |
| Democratic/Liberal
| $555,792 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $228,379 |
| Leadership PACs
| $309,430 | $227,687 |
| Universities
| $298,298 | Pharmaceuticals/Health Products | $204,302 |
| Human Rights Organizations
| $215,539 | $202,654 |
| Health Professionals
| $202,654 | Manufacturing & Distributing | $169,104 |
| Pro-Israel
| $172,380 | Health Professionals | $150,149 |
| Business Services
| $163,238 | $138,700 |
| colspan=5 | Source: OpenSecrets{{cite web |url=http://www.opensecrets.org/races/indus.php?cycle=2012&id=WIS1&spec=N |title=Top Industries 2012 Race: Wisconsin Senate |website=OpenSecrets |date=March 25, 2013}} |
= Predictions =
= Polling =
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
with Tammy Baldwin
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{Small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Tammy ! style="width:100px;"| Jeff ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48% | 37% | — | 15% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| October 20–23, 2011 | 1,170 | ±2.9% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| October 26, 2011 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46% | 39% | 4% | 6% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| February 16–19, 2012 | 716 | ±3.7% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45% | 37% | 3% | 15% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| February 23–26, 2012 | 900 | ±3.3% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 47% | 39% | — | 14% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| February 27, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 40% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 41% | 4% | 15% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| March 27, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48% | 40% | 4% | 7% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| April 13–15, 2012 | 1,136 | ±2.9% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| May 9, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45% | 41% | 4% | 9% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| June 12, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 43% | 5% | 8% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| June 13–16, 2012 | 707 | ±3.8% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45% | 39% | — | 16% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| July 5–8, 2012 | 1,057 | ±3.0% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46% | 42% | — | 13% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| July 5–8, 2012 | 810 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 43% | 37% | — | 20% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| July 25, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 47% | 37% | 6% | 10% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| August 2–5, 2012 | 1,400 | ±2.6% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45% | 40% | — | 7% |
| style="text-align:left" |Quinnipiac
| July 31 – August 6, 2012 | 1,428 | ±2.6% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51% | 39% | — | 9% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{Small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Tammy ! style="width:100px;"| Eric ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 11–13, 2012 | 851 | ±3.4% | 41% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 45% | — | 14% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| June 12, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 42% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 44% | 4% | 10% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| June 13–16, 2012 | 707 | ±3.8% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45% | 36% | — | 19% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| July 5–8, 2012 | 1,057 | ±3.0% | 44% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 45% | — | 11% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| July 5–8, 2012 | 810 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 38% | — | 18% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| July 25, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45% | 42% | 5% | 8% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| August 2–5, 2012 | 1,400 | ±2.6% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 41% | — | 9% |
| style="text-align:left" |Quinnipiac
| July 31 – August 6, 2012 | 1,428 | ±2.6% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 47% | 43% | 1% | 8% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Tammy ! style="width:100px;"| Mark ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46% | 41% | — | 13% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| August 12–14, 2011 | 830 | ±3.4% | 40% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 44% | — | 15% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| October 20–23, 2011 | 1,170 | ±2.9% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 43% | — | 13% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| October 26, 2011 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 43% | 4% | 9% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| February 16–19, 2012 | 716 | ±3.7% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 40% | 2% | 14% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| February 23–26, 2012 | 900 | ±3.3% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 47% | 41% | — | 12% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| February 27, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 37% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 46% | 4% | 13% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| March 27, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48% | 40% | 4% | 8% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| April 13–15, 2012 | 1,136 | ±2.9% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| May 9, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 42% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 44% | 4% | 9% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 11–13, 2012 | 851 | ±3.4% | 42% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 46% | — | 12% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| June 12, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 43% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 45% | 5% | 7% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| June 13–16, 2012 | 707 | ±3.8% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| July 5–8, 2012 | 1,057 | ±3.0% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45% | 41% | — | 13% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| July 5–8, 2012 | 810 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 43% | 40% | — | 17% |
| style="text-align:left" |Rasmussen Reports
| July 25, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48% | 42% | 3% | 8% |
| style="text-align:left" |Marquette University
| August 2–5, 2012 | 1,400 | ±2.6% | 44% | 44% | — | 6% |
| style="text-align:left" |Quinnipiac
| July 31 – August 6, 2012 | 1,428 | ±2.6% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48% | 45% | 1% | 6% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Tammy ! style="width:100px;"| J. B. ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46% | 39% | — | 15% |
with Russ Feingold
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Russ ! style="width:100px;"| Jeff ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 55% | 39% | — | 7% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Russ ! style="width:100px;"| Mark ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| August 12–14, 2011 | 830 | ±3.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51% | 44% | — | 5% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 53% | 41% | — | 6% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_03020330.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| February 24–27, 2011 | 768 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50% | 40% | — | 10% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Russ ! style="width:100px;"| Paul ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_1214913.pdf Public Policy Polling]
| December 10–12, 2010 | 702 | ±3.7% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50% | 43% | — | 7% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| February 24–27, 2011 | 768 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Russ ! style="width:100px;"| Tommy ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| December 10–12, 2010 | 702 | ±3.7% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49% | 40% | — | 11% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| August 12–14, 2011 | 830 | ±3.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Russ ! style="width:100px;"| J. B. ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| December 10–12, 2010 | 702 | ±3.7% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52% | 41% | — | 7% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| February 24–27, 2011 | 768 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51% | 39% | — | 10% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 53% | 38% | — | 9% |
with Steve Kagen
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Steve ! style="width:100px;"| Jeff ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 43% | 38% | — | 19% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Steve ! style="width:100px;"| Mark ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 42% | 41% | — | 17% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| August 12–14, 2011 | 830 | ±3.4% | 38% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 45% | — | 17% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Steve ! style="width:100px;"| Tommy ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | 42% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 45% | — | 13% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| August 12–14, 2011 | 830 | ±3.4% | 41% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 49% | — | 10% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Steve ! style="width:100px;"| J. B. ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 43% | 38% | — | 19% |
with Ron Kind
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Ron ! style="width:100px;"| Jeff ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45% | 37% | — | 18% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Ron ! style="width:100px;"| Mark ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| August 12–14, 2011 | 830 | ±3.4% | 40% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 43% | — | 17% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Ron ! style="width:100px;"| Tommy ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| August 12–14, 2011 | 830 | ±3.4% | 41% | {{party shading/Republican}} | 48% | — | 11% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Ron ! style="width:100px;"| J. B. ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| May 19–22, 2011 | 1,636 | ±2.4% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44% | 38% | — | 17% |
with Herb Kohl
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Herb ! style="width:100px;"| Mark ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| February 24–27, 2011 | 768 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51% | 37% | — | 12% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Herb ! style="width:100px;"| Paul ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| December 10–12, 2010 | 702 | ±3.7% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48% | 42% | — | 11% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| February 24–27, 2011 | 768 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49% | 42% | — | 10% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Herb ! style="width:100px;"| Tommy ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| December 10–12, 2010 | 702 | ±3.7% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49% | 40% | — | 11% |
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center" |
| style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! {{Small|Date(s) ! {{Small|Sample ! {{small|Margin of ! style="width:100px;"| Herb ! style="width:100px;"| J. B. ! Other ! Undecided |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| December 10–12, 2010 | 702 | ±3.7% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51% | 38% | — | 11% |
| style="text-align:left" |Public Policy Polling
| February 24–27, 2011 | 768 | ±3.5% | {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52% | 37% | — | 11% |
{{hidden end}}
=Results=
{{Election box begin | title=United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012{{cite web |url=https://elections.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Amended%20Percentage%20Results-11.6.12%20President.pdf |title=Canvass Results for 2012 Presidential and General Election - 11/6/2012 |publisher=G.A.B. Canvass Reporting System |archive-date=October 14, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161014235045/https://elections.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Amended%20Percentage%20Results-11.6.12%20President.pdf |url-status=dead}}}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| candidate = Tammy Baldwin
| votes = 1,547,104
| percentage = 51.41%
| change = -15.90%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Tommy Thompson|votes=1,380,126|percentage=45.86%|change=+16.38%}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Libertarian Party (United States)|candidate=Joseph Kexel|votes=62,240|percentage=2.07%|change=N/A}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Independent (United States)|candidate=Nimrod Allen, III|votes=16,455|percentage=0.55%|change=N/A}}
{{Election box write-in with party link
| votes = 3,486
| percentage = 0.11%
| change = +0.05%
}}
{{Election box total
| votes = 3,009,411
| percentage = 100.00%
| change = N/A
}}
{{Election box hold with party link no swing
| winner = Democratic Party (United States)
}}
{{Election box end}}
==Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican==
- Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
- Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
- Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
- Calumet (largest city: Chilton)
- Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
- Iron (largest city: Hurley)
- Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
- Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
- Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
- Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
- Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
- Marinette (largest city: Marinette)
- Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
- Oconto (largest city: Oconto)
- Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
- Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
- Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
- Shawano (largest city: Shawano)
- Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
- Waupaca (largest city: New London)
- Waushara (largest city: Berlin)
- Adams (largest city: Adams)
- Marquette (largest city: Montello)
- Polk (Largest city: Amery)
- Sheboygan (Largest city: Sheboygan)
- St. Croix (Largest city: Hudson)
- Taylor (Largest city: Medford)
- Florence (Largest city: Florence)
- Vilas (Largest city: Eagle River)
- Fond du Lac (Largest city: Fond du Lac)
- Green Lake (Largest city: Green Lake)
- Dodge (Largest city: Juneau)
- Ozaukee (Largest city: Mequon)
- Walworth (Largest city: Whitewater)
- Washington (Largest city: West Bend)
- Waukesha (Largest city: Waukesha)
==By congressional district==
Despite losing the state, Thompson won 5 of 8 congressional districts.{{cite web |url=https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/07/09/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts |title=Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts |website=Daily Kos |access-date=11 August 2020}}
| class=wikitable |
| District
! Thompson ! Baldwin ! Representative |
|---|
| style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|1|1st}} | 50.61% | 46.56% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Paul Ryan |
| style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|2|2nd}} | 32.28% | 65.82% | {{party shading/Democratic}}|Mark Pocan |
| style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|3|3rd}} | 44.31% | 52.77% | {{party shading/Democratic}}|Ron Kind |
| style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|4|4th}} | 25.15% | 72.93% | {{party shading/Democratic}}|Gwen Moore |
| style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|5|5th}} | 61.06% | 36.68% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Jim Sensenbrenner |
| style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|6|6th}} | 52.93% | 44.05% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Tom Petri |
| style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|7|7th}} | 48.93% | 48.06% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Sean Duffy |
| style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|8|8th}} | 50.21% | 46.63% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Reid Ribble |
Aftermath
Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."{{cite web |url=http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/can-republicans-avoid-the-next-todd-akin-20130926 |title=Can Republicans Avoid the Next Todd Akin? |work=National Journal |author=Alex Roarty |date=September 26, 2013 |access-date=September 30, 2013}}
See also
References
{{reflist}}
External links
- [http://gab.wi.gov/elections-voting Elections & Voting] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121107175743/http://gab.wi.gov/elections-voting |date=November 7, 2012}} at the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board
- [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=WIS1&cycle=2012 Campaign contributions] at OpenSecrets.org
- [http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/outside-spending/race_detail/S/WI/00/ Outside spending] at Sunlight Foundation
- [http://senate.ontheissues.org/2012_WI_Senate.htm Candidate issue positions] at On the Issues
Official candidate sites (Archived)
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20121023060609/http://www.tammybaldwin.com/ Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20121023164536/http://tommyforwisconsin.com/ Tommy Thompson for U.S. Senate]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20120728023126/http://www.kexel2012.com/ Joe Kexel for U.S. Senate]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20120728041716/http://www.yuallen.com/ Nimrod Allen III for U.S. Senate]
{{2012 United States elections}}