2018 Costa Rican general election

The President of Costa Rica is elected using a modified two-round system in which a candidate must receive at least 40% of the vote to win in the first round; if no candidate wins in the first round, a runoff will be held between the two candidates with the biggest quantity of votes.[http://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/2780/ Costa Rica] IFES

The 57 members of the Legislative Assembly are elected using closed list proportional representation through the largest remainder method from seven multi-member constituencies with between four and 19 seats, which are based on the seven provinces.[http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2073_B.htm Electoral system] IPU Party lists were required to alternate between male and female candidates, with parties also required to have three or four of their seven regional lists headed by a female candidate.[http://ticotimes.net/2016/05/27/gender-equality Gender equality ruling aims for nearly 50/50 male-female Costa Rican legislature] Tico Times, 27 May 2016

The internal elections for the Citizens' Action Party were held on 9 July 2017.{{cite news|title=PAC elegirá su candidato a Presidente el próximo 9 de julio|url=http://www.elmundo.cr/pac-elegira-candidato-presidente-proximo-9-julio/|date=23 January 2017|access-date=18 February 2017|work=elmundo.cr|language=es-ES|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170202061136/http://www.elmundo.cr/pac-elegira-candidato-presidente-proximo-9-julio/|archive-date=2 February 2017|url-status=dead}} The candidates were two former ministers of the Solís Rivera administration; writer Carlos Alvarado, former Minister of Labour and Social Issues, and economist Welmer Ramos, former Economy Minister. Alvarado won by 56% of the votes. Deputies Epsy Campbell, Ottón Solís and Vicepresident Ana Helena Chacón declined a potential run.{{cite news |title=Carlos Alvarado lidera la votación de convención del PAC tras 78% de mesas escrutadas |agency=Teletica |url=http://www.teletica.com/Noticias/166823-Carlos-Alvarado-lidera-la-votacion-de-convencion-del-PAC-tras-78-de-mesas-escrutadas.note.aspx |url-status=dead |access-date=10 July 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171001083153/http://www.teletica.com/Noticias/166823-Carlos-Alvarado-lidera-la-votacion-de-convencion-del-PAC-tras-78-de-mesas-escrutadas.note.aspx |archive-date=1 October 2017}}

Carlos Alvarado was the first one of the party to announce his intention to run under the slogan of "I choose the future" (Elijo el futuro) and ran under a progressive platform, which sought to exalt the achievements of Luis Guillermo Solis's government and promised to continue with it. Meanwhile, Welmer Ramos's campaign focused more on a moderate and conservative campaign, under the slogan "A citizen like you" (Un ciudadano como usted) and openly criticized the then government to appeal to those who were upset with the administration.

The Libertarian Movement had its first primaries on 30 June 2017.

Candidates were deputy Natalia Diaz,{{cite news|last1=Mora|first1=Carlos|title=Otto Guevara: "Soy consciente que tengo anticuerpos"|url=http://www.crhoy.com/nacionales/otto-guevara-soy-consciente-que-tengo-anticuerpos/|access-date=7 September 2016|agency=CR Hoy|date=4 September 2016}} and historic leader and deputy Otto Guevara Guth, who will attempt to run for presidency for the fifth time. Guevara won the primary over Diaz by a 10% margin. Otto Guevara's primary campaign was based under a right-wing populist inclination, stating that Donald Trump's presidential campaign had given him new inspiration to run, while Natalia Diaz's campaign promised to bring a new face to the party and offer a new alternative to the party's establishment.{{citation needed|date=June 2022}}

After the 2016 municipal elections, the party lost its only mayor and 258 aldermen, leaving it with little power. Plus, due to Guevara's turnabout from libertarianism to religious conservatism, many party adherents created a new party: the Progressive Liberal Party, under former transport minister Eliécer Feinzag's leadership; or joined Social Christian Unity Party because of its new liberal stance on politics.{{citation needed|date=June 2022}}

The internal elections for the National Liberation Party were held on 2 April 2017. The candidates were Sigifredo Aiza Campos, former deputy for the Guanacaste province, then deputy and radio host Rolando González Ulloa, Antonio Álvarez Desanti president of the Legislative Assembly, former minister and presidential candidate who was supported by former president Óscar Arias Sánchez, and former president José María Figueres Olsen.{{cite news|last=Muñoz|first=Mauricio|title=2017 año electoral, partidos definen candidatos a presidente y diputados|url=http://www.elmundo.cr/2017-ano-electoral-partidos-definen-candidatos-presidente-diputados/|date=2 January 2017|access-date=18 February 2017|work=elmundo.cr|language=es-ES}} Álvarez Desanti was chosen as the party's candidate.

The Social Christian primary was held on 4 June 2017 with former president of the Health System and previous candidate Rodolfo Piza winning over then deputy Rafael Ortiz.{{cite news|last1=Arrieta|first1=Esteban|title="Guerra civil" en el PUSC|url=https://www.larepublica.net/noticia/-guerra-civil-en-el-pusc|access-date=16 March 2017|agency=La República|date= 28 November 2016}}

Former Public Safety Minister Juan Diego Castro launched his unexpected presidential campaign presenting himself as a political outsider and with a strong anti-establishment and anti-corruption speech.{{cite news|title=Presidential campaigns get under way|url=http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1696096753&Country=Costa%20Rica&topic=Politics|newspaper=The Economist|access-date=1 December 2017}} Promising to "rule by decree" and with a very loud "hard hand" rhetoric (uncommon in Costa Rican politics as the country is famous for its political centrism), Castro has been compared to figures like Donald Trump and Rodrigo Duterte,{{cite news|last1=Umaña|first1=Carlos|title=Juan Diego Castro y la oleada post-Trump en Costa Rica|url=https://semanariouniversidad.com/opinion/juan-diego-castro-la-oleada-post-trump-costa-rica/|access-date=1 December 2017|agency=Semanario Universidad|date=29 March 2017}}{{cite news|last1=May Grosser|first1=Sebastian|title=A Trump in the Tropics? Why a Demagogue became the Leading Contender in Costa Rica's Upcoming Election|url=https://blog.politics.ox.ac.uk/a-trump-in-the-tropics-why-a-demagogue-became-the-leading-contender-in-costa-ricas-and-what-this-means-for-the-upcoming-election/|access-date=11 January 2018|agency=9 January 2018|publisher=Oxpol}} and accused of right-wing populism{{cite news|last1=Madrigal|first1=Luis|title=El populismo como arma: el caso de Juan Diego Castro|url=https://www.elmundo.cr/imagen-vende-juan-diego-castro-al-electorado/|access-date=1 December 2017|agency=MundoCR}}{{Dead link|date=July 2023 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} and far-right positions,{{cite news |last1=Fuchs |first1=Gustavo |title=Costa Rica: is the far right poised for victory? |url=https://lab.org.uk/costa-rica-is-the-far-right-poised-for-victory/ |access-date=30 October 2018 |agency=Lab |date=1 February 2018}} albeit he rejects the comparisons.{{cite news|last1=Castillo|first1=Brian|title=Juan Diego Castro responde a comparaciones con Donald Trump|url=https://www.laprensalibre.cr/Noticias/detalle/113193/juan-diego-castro-responde-a-comparaciones-con-donald-trump|access-date=1 December 2017|agency=La Prensa Libre|date=31 May 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171201182230/https://www.laprensalibre.cr/Noticias/detalle/113193/juan-diego-castro-responde-a-comparaciones-con-donald-trump|archive-date=1 December 2017|url-status=dead}} He ran as the National Integration Party's nominee.

Four of the minor candidates lean towards the conservative evangelical community. These are former journalist and San José deputy Fabricio Alvarado for National Restoration Party, journalist Stephanie Campos for Costa Rican Renewal Party, perennial candidate and San José deputy Óscar López for Accessibility without Exclusion, and lawyer and twice Cartago deputy Mario Redondo for Christian Democratic Alliance a former Cartaginese provincial party but which expanded to the national level. The left-wing Broad Front nominated Alajuela deputy Edgardo Araya (:es:Edgardo Araya Sibaja). The far-left Workers' Party chose the trade unionist and high school professor Jhon Vega as its candidate. The right-wing New Generation Party chose its founder Sergio Mena as the presidential nominee. Finally, former Social Christian Unity Party's presidential nominee Rodolfo Hernández (:es:Rodolfo Hernández Gómez) launched his presidential campaign with the newly formed Social Christian Republican Party, a party formed by former PUSC members dissatisfied with the liberal-controlled Social Christian Central Committee, who claimed the party had lost its Calderonist origins

Several topics like unemployment, corruption, economics, insecurity and poverty are among the main issues that concern the electorate according to polls.{{cite news|last1=Alfaro Redondo|first1=Ronald|title=Informe De Resultados De La Encuesta De Opinión Sociopolítica Realizada En Octubre De 2017|url=https://www.ciep.ucr.ac.cr/images/INFORMESUOP/Informe-encuesta-octubre-2017.pdf|access-date=3 November 2017|agency=CIEP|date=October 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171107031919/https://www.ciep.ucr.ac.cr/images/INFORMESUOP/Informe-encuesta-octubre-2017.pdf|archive-date=7 November 2017}}

But one particular event that cause uproar in the campaign was the "Cementazo" (lit. cement hit) scandal. A corruption scandal involving political figures of all the main parties, including candidate Otto Guevara, whose properties and parliamentary office were raided by the General Attorney investigating the case. Some analysts point to the Cementazo scandal as one of the reasons for the unexpected ascension in polls of hardline anti-establishment candidate Castro.

During the campaign Castro made a series of highly controversial statements that often caused polemic reactions. Among other things, he accused the Judiciary of having some of its female members ascending due to sexual favors,{{cite news|title=Declaración de Juan Diego Castro sobre supuestos viejos favores sexuales en la Corte generan rechazo|url=https://www.teletica.com/182565_declaracion-de-juan-diego-castro-sobre-supuestos-viejos-favores-sexuales-en-la-corte-generan-rechazo|access-date=12 January 2018|agency=Teletica|date=6 January 2018}}{{cite news|last1=Fallas|first1=Gustavo|title=Sobre corrupción en Corte, Castro denuncia sin pruebas que ascensos se hicieron a cambio de sexo oral|url=https://www.ameliarueda.com/politica/nota/castro-favores-sexuales-se-premiaban-con-ascensos-en-la-corte|access-date=12 January 2018|agency=Amelia Rueda|year=2018|archive-date=13 January 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180113035610/https://www.ameliarueda.com/politica/nota/castro-favores-sexuales-se-premiaban-con-ascensos-en-la-corte|url-status=dead}} something that sprang harsh responses from female judges and judicial workers.{{cite news|last1=Sequeira|first1=Aarón|last2=Chinchilla|first2=Sofía|title=Profesionales judiciales repudian declaración de Juan Diego Castro sobre ascenso de mujeres en Corte|url=http://www.nacion.com/el-pais/politica/profesionales-judiciales-repudian-declaracion-de/4CWF4B3JHVFZPBLNAAQ5VZL6PQ/story/|access-date=12 January 2018|work=La Nación|year=2018}} Political figures from other parties reacted with outrage including Desanti's wife Nuria Marin and PAC's vice-president nominee Epsy Campbell.{{cite news|last1=López|first1=Ronny|title=Nuria Marín exige disculpa pública a Juan Diego Castro por comentario sobre favores sexuales en la Corte|url=http://www.amprensa.com/2018/01/nuria-marin-exige-disculpa-publica-a-juan-diego-castro-por-comentario-sobre-favores-sexuales-en-la-corte/|access-date=12 January 2018|agency=AM Prensa|date=6 January 2018}}{{cite news|last1=Madrigal|first1=Luis Manuel|title=Epsy Campbell llama "patán y acomplejado" a Castro por insinuar sobre favores sexuales en Poder Judicial|url=https://www.elmundo.cr/epsy-campbell-llama-patan-acomplejado-castro-insinuar-favores-sexuales-poder-judicial/|access-date=12 January 2018|agency=Mundo|date=6 January 2018}} He later clarified that he was referring to one particular case of a known female friend of his. He also called for the removal of the prohibition on oil exploitation and gold mining calling those who opposed it "eco-terrorists and extremists".{{cite news|last1=Cascante|first1=Luis Fernando|title=Juan Diego Castro: "Si vivimos sobre un paraíso de petróleo, vamos a explotarlo como se debe"|url=https://semanariouniversidad.com/ultima-hora/juan-diego-castro-vivimos-paraiso-petroleo-explotarlo-se/|access-date=17 January 2018|agency=Semanario Universidad|date=16 January 2018}} Desanti also said that "extremists should not dictate environmental policies" but mentioned that he opposes oil exploitation. Both Alvarado Quesada and Araya are staunch opponents of all forms of oil exploration and exploitation.{{cite news|last1=Gutiérrez Wa-Chong|first1=Tatiana|title=PAC y FA quieren a Recope compitiendo con combustibles limpios|url=https://www.larepublica.net/noticia/pac-y-fa-quieren-a-recope-compitiendo-con-combustibles-limpios|access-date=17 January 2018|agency=La República|date=8 November 2017}}

A surprising ruling from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights extending all rights enjoyed by heterosexual couples to same-sex couples made after Costa Rica's government lodged a motion for clarification also had an impact on the campaign. The ruling may require up to 22 signatory countries of the Pact of San José that recognize the contentious authority of the IACHR to change their laws to legalize same-sex marriage (whether by legislative or judicial methods, or both). Most polls show that most Costa Ricans oppose gay marriage albeit with large numbers supporting it (in a general ratio of 60–40%).{{cite news|title=55% a favor de igualdad en derechos|language=es|newspaper=La Nación|date=12 February 2012|url=http://www.nacion.com/2012-02-12/RevistaDominical/%C2%A055--a-favor-de-igualdad-en%C2%A0-derechos.aspx|access-date=13 February 2012|first=Ángela|last=Ávalos|archive-date=15 February 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120215094444/http://www.nacion.com/2012-02-12/RevistaDominical/%C2%A055--a-favor-de-igualdad-en%C2%A0-derechos.aspx|url-status=dead}}[http://www.pewforum.org/2014/11/13/chapter-5-social-attitudes/ Religion in Latin America Chapter 5: Social Attitudes][http://www.pewforum.org/2014/11/13/appendix-a-methodology/ Religion in Latin America Appendix A: Methodology]{{in lang|es}} [https://www.elmundo.cr/se-mantienen-actitudes-conservadoras-en-costa-rica-sobre-matrimonio-igualitario-y-estado-laico/ Se mantienen actitudes conservadoras en Costa Rica sobre matrimonio igualitario y Estado laico] Opponents of gay marriage were outraged by the ruling, causing an increase in social media support for Christian singer and journalist Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz{{cite news|last1=Arrieta|first1=Esteban|title=Derechos gais elevan acciones del PAC y Restauración|url=https://www.larepublica.net/noticia/derechos-gais-elevan-acciones-del-pac-y-restauracion|access-date=17 January 2018|agency=La República|date=16 January 2018}} from the staunchly conservative National Restoration Party (a normally small party with testimonial results mostly supported by the Evangelical Christian minority). Alvarado Muñoz was, for the first time for an Evangelical candidate, attracting Catholic voters. Nevertheless, Alvarado Muñoz' gain also saw a counter-reaction. Social media support for progressive pro-gay marriage candidate Carlos Alvarado Quesada was also notable, particularly among millennials and centennials who mostly support socially liberal policies. Some analysts point to a possible polarization between conservative and progressive voters, or among religious and secular or older and younger generations depending on the measure, which pushed both Alvarados into the second round. At least two homophobic attacks were reported.{{cite news|title=#Video ¡Intolerancia total! Hombre recibió un machetazo en el cuello solo por ser homosexual, hechos ocurrieron en Turrialba.|url=http://ncrnoticias.com/video-intolerancia-total-hombre-recibio-un-machetazo-en-el-cuello-solo-por-ser-homosexual-hechos-ocurrieron-en-turrialba/|access-date=19 January 2018|agency=NCR|date=18 January 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180119120551/http://ncrnoticias.com/video-intolerancia-total-hombre-recibio-un-machetazo-en-el-cuello-solo-por-ser-homosexual-hechos-ocurrieron-en-turrialba/|archive-date=19 January 2018|url-status=dead}}{{cite news|last1=Alfaro|first1=Josué|title=Joven denuncia agresión por odio a la comunidad LGTBI|url=https://semanariouniversidad.com/pais/joven-denuncia-agresion-odio-la-comunidad-lgtbi/|access-date=19 January 2018|agency=Semanario Universidad|date=16 January 2018}}

During the run-off campaign, Alvarado Muñoz’ strategy focused on linking his rival with the somewhat unpopular government at the time by pointing out its flaws, errors and scandals.{{cite news|last1=Cambronero|first1=Natasha|title=Fabricio Alvarado finaliza su campaña con críticas al gobierno por seguridad, cemento y empleo|url=https://www.nacion.com/el-pais/politica/fabricio-alvarado-cierra-su-campana-con-ataques-al/PJZCXKAOTZE2LJNIIU6IK7M3GQ/story/|access-date=3 April 2018|work=La Nación|date=24 March 2018}} On the contrary, Alvarado Quesada tried to distance himself from Luis Guillermo Solís’ Administration, but at the same time highlighted its achievements.{{cite news|title=Carlos Alvarado, el exministro escritor y rockero que será el próximo presidente de Costa Rica|url=https://www.teletica.com/190276_carlos-alvarado-el-exministro-escritor-y-rockero-que-sera-el-proximo-presidente-de-costa-rica|access-date=3 April 2018|agency=Teletica|date=2 April 2018}} Muñoz also reinforced his idea of defending "pro-life and family" values, whilst Quesada insisted in wanting an inclusive country with no "second class citizens". Quesada's strategy focused in presenting Muñoz as inexperienced and unprepared, pointing out his delay in presenting his second government program as promised and contradictions between him and some of his close collaborators.{{cite news|last1=Redacción|title=Estas fueron las frases más álgidas del #DebateTN7 entre Carlos y Fabricio Alvarado|url=https://www.teletica.com/189947_estas-fueron-las-frases-mas-algidas-del-debatetn7-entre-carlos-y-fabricio-alvarado|access-date=3 April 2018|agency=Telenoticias|date=27 March 2018}}

A series of controversies affected Muñoz' presidential run, including accusations of plagiarism on his government program,{{cite news|last1=Martínez Roque|first1=Valeria|title=Programa 2.0 de Fabricio Alvarado contiene plagios al plan de gobierno de Carlos Alvarado|url=https://www.elmundo.cr/programa-2-0-fabricio-alvarado-contiene-plagios-al-plan-gobierno-carlos-alvarado/|access-date=3 April 2018|agency=Mundo|date=29 March 2018}} a delay in the presentation of his party's financial reports, high payments to him and some other high-ranking party members for services during the campaign,{{cite news|last1=Cascante|first1=Luis|title=Campaña plagada de tropiezos marcó derrota de Fabricio Alvarado|url=https://semanariouniversidad.com/ultima-hora/campana-plagada-de-tropiezos-marco-derrota-de-fabricio-alvarado/|access-date=3 April 2018|agency=Semanario Universidad|date=2 April 2018}} etc. But probably one of the most damaging was the content of a book written by pastor and tele-evangelist Ronny Chaves (close collaborator of Fabricio and described by him as "spiritual father") calling "La Negrita" or Virgen de los Ángeles (Costa Rica's patron saint) a demon. Something that some analysts highlight as hurtful to many Catholics' feelings causing many of them to switch towards Carlos Alvarado.{{cite news|last1=Castillo|first1=Bryan|title=Ataque a la patrona fue un pecado|url=https://www.pressreader.com/costa-rica/la-teja/20180403/281582356191790|access-date=3 April 2018|agency=La Teja|date=3 April 2018}} In fact, the Cartago Province which is Costa Rica's Catholic epicenter and see of the Basílica de Nuestra Señora de los Ángeles is where Quesada's support was higher (75%), on the contrary Fabricio won by wide margin in the mostly Protestant province of Limón.

In the second round Carlos kept San José, Heredia and Cartago Provinces and all of the cantons he won in the first one, and managed to turn Alajuela and Guanacaste on his favor.{{cite news|last1=Alfaro|first1=Josué|last2=Salazar|first2=Daniel|title=Carlos Alvarado gana con contundencia la segunda vuelta electoral|url=https://semanariouniversidad.com/pais/carlos-alvarado-gana-la-segunda-vuelta-electoral/|access-date=2 April 2018|agency=Semanario Universidad|date=1 April 2018}} He also won, again, the foreign vote winning all ballot booths overseas except Singapore were there was a tie. Fabricio kept Puntarenas and Limón as his strongholds and won in all cantons of Limon, most of the Punteranas cantons, four of the northern cantons of Alajuela (San Carlos, Upala, Guatuso and Los Chiles) and Sarapiqui in Heredia. Abstentionism was less during the second round for the first time in history.

During pre-campaign Juan Diego Castro emerged as one of the most popular political figures with around 51% of positive opinions, followed by Antonio Álvarez Desanti with 36%, with Libertarian deputy Otto Guevara and former president José María Figueres as the ones with more negative opinions.{{cite news|last1=CID-Gallup|title=LUIS GUILLERMO SOLÍS SIGUE COMO EL MÁS POPULAR; En segundo lugar está Juan Diego Castro y en tercero Antonio Álvarez|url=https://www.cidgallup.com/es/virtual-library/download/484-|access-date=5 October 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171005202246/https://www.cidgallup.com/es/virtual-library/download/484-|archive-date=5 October 2017|url-status=dead}} After the PLN primary in which Desanti won over Figueres by slight margin, Desanti started the campaign as frontrunner for a while with up to 36% support in some early polls.{{cite news|last1=Quirós Navarro|first1=Bharley|title=Juan Diego Castro se dispara en encuestas|url=http://www.diarioextra.com/Noticia/detalle/331603/segun-cid-gallup-en-encuestas|access-date=5 May 2017|agency=Diario Extra|date=4 May 2017}} Castro was also among the favorites even before he had a party supporting his candidacy (something required by law in Costa Rica as independent candidates are not allowed). As the campaign continued Desanti suffered a constant decrease in voters' intent.{{cite news|last1=Madrigal|first1=Luis|title=ENCUESTA: Antonio Álvarez lidera intención de voto, pero no ganaría en una primera ronda|url=http://www.elmundo.cr/encuesta-antonio-alvarez-lidera-intencion-voto-no-ganaria-una-primera-ronda/|access-date=31 May 2017|agency=Mundo|date=29 May 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170601021555/http://www.elmundo.cr/encuesta-antonio-alvarez-lidera-intencion-voto-no-ganaria-una-primera-ronda/|archive-date=1 June 2017|url-status=dead}} Castro remained as frontrunner for most of 2017, but an erratic and heavily controversial campaign begins to affect him losing support in January. PUSC's Rodolfo Piza remained as second in some polls, later replaced by Castro but still in third place.{{cite news|last1=Angulo|first1=Yamileth|title=ENCUESTA: Álvarez 15,35%, Piza 10,76%, Castro 9,99%, Hernández 4,92%|url=http://www.elmundo.cr/encuesta-alvarez-1535-piza-1076-castro-999-hernandez-492/|agency=Mundo|date=26 June 2017}}

The "Cementazo" scandal affected heavily the parties involved (PAC, PLN, PUSC and ML) especially during November and December when the Parliamentary Committee investigating the issue made most of its hearings, with all parties facing a reduction on their support.{{cite news|last1=Madrigal|first1=Luis Manuel|title=Candidatos afectados por el "cementazo" recuperan intención de voto|url=https://www.elmundo.cr/candidatos-afectados-cementazo-recuperan-intencion-voto|access-date=25 September 2017|agency=elmundo.cr|date= 28 September 2017}}

The IACHR's ruling on same-sex marriage caused a turmoil in the country, with conservative candidate and staunch opponent Fabricio Alvarado showing a rapid increase in support passing from marginal percentages of around 2–6% to be in the lead with up to 17%. However, Carlos Alvarado's support also started to grow unusually fast especially in mid and late January with the later polls showing him surpassing other candidates including Castro and Piza, passing from sixth to third in a couple of days, and even in a technical tie with Desanti showing possibilities to go into the run-off. Castro appeared in fourth and Piza in fifth place as of late January.{{cite news|last1=Esteban Arrieta|title=PAC amenaza con sacar al PLN de segunda ronda|url=https://www.larepublica.net/noticia/pac-amenaza-con-sacar-al-pln-de-segunda-ronda|access-date=1 February 2018|agency=31 January 2018|publisher=La República}} PAC's support historically tend to increase in January and after the debates, but it was also possible that its support came from more liberal voters fearful of a religious government.

According to polls Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz took most of his support from Evangelical Christian voters who represented around 70% of his supporters,{{cite news|last1=Murillo|first1=Alvaro|title=Evangélicos aportaron 70% de votos de Fabricio Alvarado y 15% en el PAC|url=https://semanariouniversidad.com/ultima-hora/evangelicos-aportaron-70-votos-fabricio-alvarado-15-pac/|access-date=22 February 2018|agency=Semanario Universidad|date=16 February 2018}} followed by 20% Roman Catholics and 8% with no religion. Carlos Alvarado Quesada, on the contrary, was mostly supported by Catholics with 52% of his voters belonging to that denomination, followed by 29% non-religious and 13% Protestants. Alvarado Quesada was most popular among urban voters with higher education,{{cite news|last1=Murillo|first1=Álvaro|last2=Rodríguez|first2=Frank|language=es|trans-title=Religious shock impacts candidate support|title=Shock religioso impacta apoyo a candidatos|url=https://www.ciep.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/noticias/77-shock-religioso-impacta-apoyo-a-candidatos|access-date=25 January 2018|agency=CIEP (UCR)|date=24 January 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180126012746/https://www.ciep.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/noticias/77-shock-religioso-impacta-apoyo-a-candidatos|archive-date=26 January 2018|url-status=dead}} whilst Alvarado Muñoz had strong support by those with only elementary or high school levels of education. Also Alvarado Quesada was more popular among voters under 35, whilst Alvarado Muñoz was more popular among women under 35 and voters of both sexes over 55.

A post-election study completed by the University of Costa Rica showed that Alvarado Quesada's success was in part due to his performance in the debates, his campaign and defense of the Rule of law.{{cite news|last1=Chinchilla|first1=Sofía|title=Estudio de UCR: Por estos factores Carlos Alvarado ganó las elecciones|url=https://www.nacion.com/el-pais/politica/estudio-de-ucr-por-estos-factores-carlos-alvarado/Z23FELJ7JVERRPHU5V5UPAMR4Q/story/|access-date=26 April 2018|work=La Nación|date=26 April 2018}} Whilst Alvarado Muñoz' supporters mentioned defense of the traditional family, the fact that he was a believer and being an alternative to PAC. Religion wasn't such an important factor as originally thought, but 71% of Alvarado Quesada's voters mentioned Ronny Chaves' anti-Catholic statements as something "bad or very bad", against 35% of Fabricio's voters expressing that such thing was indifferent to them. Roman Catholics were 60% more likely to vote for Carlos Alvarado than non-Catholics that were only 30%. Alvarado Quesada had also much more support from middle and High Classes especially from the urban areas and the Central Valley whilst Fabricio's support came from the periphery and coastal areas with higher poverty levels and where the population is lower and less willing to vote at all.

{{Quote box|width=300px|align=right|quote=One day I'll tell you where the fraud was, every Friday we expected a survey that was false.|source=National Restoration President Carlos Avendaño, October 2018.{{cite news|last1=Chinchilla|first1=Sofía|last2=Oviedo|first2=Esteban|title=Carlos Avendaño responde a Fabricio Alvarado: 'Un día les digo dónde estuvo el fraude'|url=https://www.nacion.com/el-pais/politica/carlos-avendano-fabricio-alvarado-debe-aclarar/3VWA74IBR5CRVP6VAFBMISCVNM/story/|access-date=29 October 2018|work=La Nación|year=2018}}}}

The last poll of the second round scheduled for 28 March was canceled due to the fact that OPol Consultores' executives alleged that threats had been made against their collaborators. Shortly before this announcement, social media reported that a vehicle registered in the name of the private limited company to which the pollster belongs and led by the director of the company traveled with flags of National Restoration.{{cite news|last1=Delfino|first1=Diego|title=El Opolazo nos deja sin encuesta final|url=https://delfino.cr/2018/03/opolazo-nos-deja-sin-encuesta-final/|access-date=2 April 2018|agency=Delfino|date=28 March 2018}}

Also the poll published by the Institute of Population Studies (IDESPO) of the National University, the only one that showed a wide advantage on the part of Carlos Alvarado over Fabricio, was questioned almost immediately by the digital newspaper El Mundo questioning its methodology.{{cite news|last1=Angulo|first1=Yamileth|title=UNA divulga encuesta que "representa el 42% de la población" y pone arriba a Carlos Alvarado|url=https://www.elmundo.cr/una-divulga-encuesta-representa-42-la-poblacion-pone-carlos-alvarado/|access-date=25 May 2018|work=El Mundo|date=27 February 2018}} The Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the university's Council reaffirmed the validity of the poll.{{cite news|last1=Solano|first1=Hermes|title=TSE dice que polémica encuesta de la UNA está avalada|url=https://www.crhoy.com/nacionales/tse-dice-que-polemica-encuesta-de-la-una-esta-avalada/|access-date=25 May 2018|agency=CRHoy|date=7 March 2018}}{{cite news|last1=Pérez|first1=Karla|title=Consejo Universitario de la UNA valida metodología en encuesta de IDESPO|url=https://www.elmundo.cr/consejo-universitario-universidad-nacional-valida-metodologia-encuesta-idespo/|access-date=25 May 2018|agency=Mundo|date=6 March 2018}} The IDESPO poll would be the closest to the electoral result of the second round together with an informal poll conducted by the Los Paleteros ice cream company.{{cite news|last1=Cubero|first1=Alexandra|title=¿Cómo la encuesta de Los Paleteros se acercó más a los resultados electorales?|url=https://www.larepublica.net/noticia/como-fue-que-la-encuesta-de-los-paleteros-se-acerco-mas-a-los-resultados-electorales|access-date=25 May 2018|agency=La República|date=2 April 2018}}

After the campaign it was made public that during the second round the executive committee of the National Restoration Party had made payments to the polling company OPol according to financial reports submitted to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Party officials reported that these were political consultancies unrelated to the polls, however, subsequent investigations by the newspaper La Nación discovered a contract for the payment of the six polls that were carried out during the second round campaign, of which five were published by El Mundo. In all of them Fabricio Alvarado appeared as the winner by a wide margin. They were immediately shared in the social media of the group and the candidate as well as party personalities and allies including deputy-elect and vice presidential candidate Jonathan Prendas and deputy Mario Redondo. Catherina Convertino, general manager of Opinión Política CyC, a private limited company that owns both OPol and El Mundo newspaper, confirmed to La Nación that the second round polls had been requested by Juan Carlos Campos, head of the National Restoration campaign and that they decided to make it public following the debt of the party in the total payment of the contract.{{cite news|last1=Cambronero|first1=Natasha|title=Encuestas de Opol se hicieron por encargo de Restauración Nacional de cara a la segunda ronda|url=https://www.nacion.com/el-pais/politica/encuestas-de-opol-se-hicieron-por-encargo-de/67BL2AJD2FGCPHG7CMMIPTCXFU/story/|access-date=25 May 2018|work=La Nación|date=25 May 2018}}

{{main|Opinion polling for the 2018 Costa Rican general election}}

File:Costa_Rica_general_election_2018_-_Legislative_%26_Presidential_Election_Results.svg

{{Election results

|cand1=Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz|party1=National Restoration Party|votes1=538504|votes1_2=860388

|cand2=Carlos Alvarado Quesada|party2=Citizens' Action Party|votes2=466129|votes2_2=1322908

|cand3=Antonio Álvarez Desanti|party3=National Liberation Party|votes3=401505

|cand4=Rodolfo Piza Rocafort|party4=Social Christian Unity Party|votes4=344595

|cand5=Juan Diego Castro Fernández|party5=National Integration Party|votes5=205602

|cand6={{ill|Rodolfo Hernández Gómez|es}}|party6=Social Christian Republican Party|votes6=106444

|cand7=Otto Guevara|party7=Libertarian Movement|votes7=21890

|cand8=Edgardo Araya|party8=Broad Front|votes8=16862

|cand9=Sergio Mena|party9=New Generation Party|votes9=16329

|cand10=Mario Redondo|party10=Christian Democratic Alliance|votes10=12638

|cand11=Stephanie Campos|party11=Costa Rican Renewal Party|votes11=12309

|cand12=Óscar López|party12=Accessibility without Exclusion|votes12=7539

|cand13=Jhon Vega|party13=Workers' Party|votes13=4351

|invalid=28067|invalid2=24260

|electorate=3322329|electorate2=3322329

|source=[https://servicioselectorales.tse.go.cr/resultadosdefinitivos/#/presidenciales TSE], [https://servicioselectorales.tse.go.cr/resultados2darondadefinitivos/#/presidenciales TSE]

}}

First round

Abroad vote

{{Pie chart

| thumb = right

| caption = Abroad vote

| other =

| label1 =PAC

| value1 =37.67

| color1 ={{party color|Citizens' Action Party (Costa Rica)}}

| label2 =PUSC

| value2 =22.73

| color2 ={{party color|Social Christian Unity Party}}

| label3 =PLN

| value3 =17.03

| color3 ={{party color|National Liberation Party (Costa Rica)}}

| label4 =PREN

| value4 =11.66

| color4 ={{party color|National Restoration Party (Costa Rica)}}

| label5 =PIN

| value5 =5.53

| color5 ={{party color|National Integration Party (Costa Rica)}}

| label6 =FA

| value6 =1.82

| color6 ={{party color|Broad Front (Costa Rica)}}

| label7 = PRSC

| value7 = 0.98

| color7 ={{party color|Social Christian Republican Party}}

| label8 = PNG

| value8 = 0.73

| color8 ={{party color|New Generation Party (Costa Rica)}}

| label9 = ML

| value9 = 0.71

| color9 ={{party color|Libertarian Movement (Costa Rica)}}

}}

Runoff

Abroad vote

{{Pie chart

| thumb = right

| caption = Abroad vote, runoff

| label1 =PAC

| value1 =77.62

| color1 ={{party color|Citizens' Action Party (Costa Rica)}}

| label2 =PREN

| value2 =22.38

| color2 ={{party color|National Restoration Party (Costa Rica)}}

}}

The National Liberation Party retained its parliamentary plurality despite being third on the presidential ticket with 17 seats, followed by the National Restoration Party obtaining 14, the first time in Costa Rica's history that a religious party gained such large number.{{cite news|last1=Oviedo|first1=Esteban|title=Los Alvarado van a segunda ronda|url=https://www.nacion.com/el-pais/politica/en-vivo-tse-primer-corte-de-las-elecciones/G7AR7H23HJEC5OITM74UH5ZSN4/story/|work=La Nación|date=5 February 2018}} The ruling party Citizens' Action became third with 10. This was the first time in Costa Rican history that a ruling party was neither the second nor the third-largest party. However, that changed after a break-up among the National Restoration deputies, which caused more than half to split from the party a few months after the election, thus turning PAC back into first minority.{{cite web |last1=Madrigal |first1=Luis |title=Fabricio Alvarado renuncia a Restauración Nacional: "Su cúpula me vio como una amenaza" |url=https://delfino.cr/2018/10/fabricio-alvarado-renuncia-a-restauracion-nacional-su-cupula-me-vio-como-una-amenaza/ |website=Delfino |access-date=24 October 2018}} The Social Christian Unity Party gained one more seat (9). The left-wing Broad Front suffered a major setback losing most of its seats passing from 9 to 1, whilst right-wing National Integration returns to Congress for the first time in 20 years with 4 seats, but another schism between the party's leadership and the 2018's nominee Juan Diego Castro causes one of PIN's deputies (a Castro loyalist) to separate.{{cite news|last1=Calvo|first1=Daniela|title=Diputado representará a Reconstrucción.cr en la Asamblea Legislativa|url=http://subibaja.cr/2018/04/05/diputado-representara-a-reconstruccion-cr-en-la-asamblea-legislativa/|agency=Subibaja|date=5 April 2018|access-date=26 December 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180411180439/http://subibaja.cr/2018/04/05/diputado-representara-a-reconstruccion-cr-en-la-asamblea-legislativa/|archive-date=11 April 2018|url-status=dead}} The newly formed party Social Christian Republican gains two deputies.

{{Election results

|image=File:Asamblea Legislativa 2018 - 2022.svg

|party1=National Liberation Party|votes1=416638|seats1=17|sc1=–1

|party2=National Restoration Party|votes2=388086|seats2=14|sc2=+13

|party3=Citizens' Action Party|votes3=347703|seats3=10|sc3=–3

|party4=Social Christian Unity Party|votes4=312097|seats4=9|sc4=+1

|party5=National Integration Party|votes5=163933|seats5=4|sc5=+4

|party6=Social Christian Republican Party|votes6=89969|seats6=2|sc6=New

|party7=Broad Front|votes7=84437|seats7=1|sc7=–8

|party8=Christian Democratic Alliance|votes8=52325|seats8=0|sc8=–1

|party9=Libertarian Movement|votes9=49659|seats9=0|sc9=–4

|party10=Accessibility without Exclusion|votes10=46071|seats10=0|sc10=–1

|party11=New Generation Party|votes11=45896|seats11=0|sc11=0

|party12=Costa Rican Renewal Party|votes12=41806|seats12=0|sc12=–2

|party13=Authentic Limonense Party|votes13=13661|seats13=0|sc13=0

|party14=Progressive Liberal Party|votes14=12537|seats14=0|sc14=New

|party15=Workers' Party|votes15=11615|seats15=0|sc15=0

|party16=Let's Act Now|votes16=9898|seats16=0|sc16=New|color16=#E25F23

|party17=Let's Go|votes17=8283|seats17=0|sc17=New|color17=#483D8B

|party18=United Forces for Change Party|votes18=8237|seats18=0|sc18=New|color18=#FFD700

|party19=Everybody|votes19=8062|seats19=0|sc19=New|color19=#2F4F4F

|party20=Guanacastecan Union Party|votes20=7994|seats20=0|sc20=New|color20=#8B4513

|party21=United Communal Party|votes21=6270|seats21=0|sc21=New|color21=#096395

|party22=Transporters' Party|votes22=4868|seats22=0|sc22=0|color22=#FF4500

|party23=Recovering Values Party|votes23=4840|seats23=0|sc23=New|color23=#0E4BEF

|party24=Homeland, Equality & Democracy Party|votes24=1881|seats24=0|sc24=0|color24=#CD853F

|party25=New Socialist Party|votes25=790|seats25=0|sc25=0|color25=#ED0028

|invalid=40540

|total_sc=0

|electorate=3322329

|source=[https://www.tse.go.cr/juris/electorales/1230-E11-2018.html TSE]

}}

• Opponent candidate Fabricio Alvarado quickly acknowledge defeat and congratulated Carlos Alvarado who he called personally to his phone. He called for the Costa Rican family to be united and for families split by politics to embrace each other.{{cite news|last1=Redacción|title=Costa Rica: Evangélico Fabricio Alvarado reconoce derrota electoral|url=https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/elecciones/costa-rica-evangelico-fabricio-alvarado-reconoce-derrota-electoral-noticia-508806|access-date=2 April 2018|agency=El Comercio|date=1 April 2018}}
• President of the Electoral Court Antonio Sobrado expressed satisfaction with the electoral process and said that "sovereign people has spoken".{{cite news|last1=Solano|first1=Hermes|title=Luis Antonio Sobrado: "El pueblo soberano habló"|url=https://www.crhoy.com/nacionales/luis-antonio-sobrado-el-pueblo-soberano-hablo/|access-date=17 April 2018|agency=CR Hoy}}
• President of Costa Rica Luis Guillermo Solís congratulated his successor and fellow party member and expressed his wish for Alvarado to accompany him to the Summits of the Americas in mid-April, yet Alvarado declined.{{cite news|last1=Aronne|first1=Esteban|title=Carlos Alvarado declina invitación de Luis Guillermo Solís para asistir a Cumbre de las Américas|url=http://www.monumental.co.cr/2018/04/03/carlos-alvarado-declina-invitacion-de-luis-guillermo-solis-para-asistir-cumbre-de-las-americas/|access-date=17 April 2018|agency=Monumental}}
• Carlos Alvarado spoke to a crowd of followers in Plaza Roosevelt, San Pedro of Montes de Oca thanking the voluntary workers of his campaign, the members of the different parties that supported him and calling for a government of national unity, and for Congress to quickly solve issues like the tax reform and the Legislative bylaw.{{cite news|last1=Naranjo|first1=Julio|url=https://www.teletica.com/190231_carlos-alvarado-mi-deber-sera-unir-esta-republica-para-sacarla-adelante|title=Carlos Alvarado: 'Mi deber será unir esta República para sacarla adelante'|access-date=2 April 2018|agency=Teletica|date=2 April 2018}}

;Supranational

• {{flag|United Nations}} – Alice Shackelford on behalf of the United Nations congratulated Costa Rica describing the elections as "peaceful and in an environment of respect" and congratulated voters for choosing a more inclusive society.{{cite news|last1=Gutiérrez Wa-Chong|first1=Tatiana|title=ONU felicita a votantes por construir una sociedad más inclusiva|url=https://www.larepublica.net/noticia/onu-felicita-a-votantes-por-construir-una-sociedad-mas-inclusiva|access-date=6 April 2018|agency=La República|date=3 April 2018}}
• {{flag|Organization of American States}} – Secretary General Luis Almagro congratulated Alvarado Quesada as president elect and Costa Rica's people for what he called "the democratic festivity".{{cite news|last1=Chinchilla|first1=Francesca|title=Fiesta electoral en Costa Rica fue destacada por presidentes de América|url=https://www.nacion.com/el-mundo/politica/fiesta-electoral-en-costa-rica-fue-destacada-por/7ZU5AZMDJNFQTLF7YDQW4BVNX4/story/|access-date=2 April 2018|work=La Nación|date=2 April 2018}}

;States

• {{flag|Canada}} – Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau spoke directly over the phone with Alvarado expressing his satisfaction with having another young voice among world leaders and describing Costa Rica as an example in human rights and environmental policies.{{cite news|last1=Rodríguez|first1=Frank|title=Trudeau a Alvarado: "Estoy muy emocionado por el futuro de Costa Rica y por tu liderazgo"|agency=Semanario Universidad|date=12 April 2018}}
• {{flag|Chile}} – Former President of Chile Michelle Bachelet congratulated both Carlos Alvarado and Epsy Campbell noticing Campbell's status as first person of African descent in being Vice President of the [continental] Americas, expressing "Our Costa Rican brothers gave us a sample of democracy and inclusion, as necessary today".
• {{flag|Colombia}} – President of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos said: "Count on Colombia to keep strengthening friendship bonds".
• {{flag|Ecuador}} – Former President of Ecuador Rafael Correa saluted Alvarado and gave a special salute to Campbell as first Black woman Vice President of Latin America closing with "Gender equality, ethnic and Youth".
• {{flag|Guatemala}} – President of Guatemala Jimmy Morales congratulated the Costa Rican people and advocated for a "a more united and prosperous Central America".
• {{flag|Honduras|1949}} – President of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández "express congratulations of behalf of the Honduran people and the desire of tighten relationships."
• {{flag|Mexico}} – President of Mexico Enrique Peña Nieto described the election as "a sample of democratic maturity" congratulating Alvarado and announcing that with the new government "Mexico will continue strengthening the cooperation and economic bonds".
• {{flag|Nicaragua}} – President of Nicaragua Daniel Ortega express his hope that the new government may be a way to improve relationships between the two countries. "
• {{flag|Panama}} – President of Panama Juan Carlos Varela after congratulating Alvarado and the Costa Rican people also mentioned that "We'll keep working on a State agenda between our sister nations and peoples".".
• {{flag|Spain}} – President of the Spanish government Mariano Rajoy described Costa Rica and Spain as sister nations and said he was sure that both countries would continue strengthening bonds of friendship and cooperation, also highlighting Costa Rica's economic growth and inclusive development in the last governments.{{cite news|last1=Solano|first1=Johel|title=El mensaje de Mariano Rajoy desde España a Carlos Alvarado|url=https://www.crhoy.com/nacionales/el-mensaje-de-mariano-rajoy-desde-espana-a-carlos-alvarado/|access-date=6 April 2018|agency=CRHoy|date=3 April 2018}}
• {{flag|United States}} – United States Department of State expressed its congratulations on behalf of the US government and described the elections as "pacific, fair and free" and Costa Rica as "promoter of economic prosperity, security and good government in the region."
• {{flag|Venezuela}} – Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza on behalf of Nicolás Maduro congratulated Alvarado as president elect and the Costa Rican people, the government of Venezuela also made public an official statement.

{{reflist}}

{{Costa Rican elections}}

Costa

General

Category:Parliamentary elections in Costa Rica

Costa

Category:Election and referendum articles with incomplete results

Costa

Category:Presidential elections in Costa Rica