2025 Japanese House of Councillors election
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2025}}
{{Use American English|date=March 2025}}
{{Infobox election
| country = Japan
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = yes
| previous_election = 2022 Japanese House of Councillors election | previous_year = 2022 | election_date = By 22 July 2025 | next_election = | next_year = 2028
| previous_mps =
| seats_for_election = 124 of the 248 seats in the House of Councillors
| majority_seats = 125
| registered =
| turnout =
| 1blank = Constituency vote | 2blank = % and swing
| 3blank = National vote | 4blank = % and swing
| opinion_polls = Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election
| image1 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Ishiba Shigeru 20241001 (cropped).jpg|bSize = 160|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 14|oLeft = 17}}
| party1 = Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)
| leader1 = Shigeru Ishiba
| leader_since1 = 27 September 2024
| last_election1 = 119 seats
| seats_needed1 = {{increase}}10
| seats_before1 = 115
| seats1 =
| seat_change1 =
| 1data1 = | 2data1 =
| 3data1 = | 4data1 =
| image2 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Yosuke Suzuki with Yoshihiko Noda 2024-10-20(3) (cropped).jpg|bSize = 130|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 5}}
| party2 = CDP
| leader2 = Yoshihiko Noda
| leader_since2 = 23 September 2024
| last_election2 = 39 seats
| seats_needed2 = {{increase}}87
| seats_before2 = 38
| seats2 =
| seat_change2 =
| 1data2 = | 2data2 =
| 3data2 = | 4data2 =
| image3 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Tetsuo Saito 20211004 (cropped).jpg| bSize = 125|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 3}}
| party3 = Komeito
| leader3 = Tetsuo Saito
| leaders_seat3 =
| leader_since3 = 9 November 2024
| last_election3 = 27 seats
| seats_needed3 = {{increase}}98
| seats_before3 = 27
| seats3 =
| seat_change3 =
| 1data3 = | 2data3 =
| 3data3 = | 4data3 =
| image4 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Hirofumi Yoshimura and Seiji Maehara.png|bSize = 120|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 0}}
| party4 = Nippon Ishin no Kai
| leader4 = Hirofumi Yoshimura
Seiji Maehara
| leader_since4 = 1 December 2024
| last_election4 = 21 seats
| seats_needed4 = {{increase}}105
| seats_before4 = 20
| seats4 =
| seat_change4 =
| 1data4 = | 2data4 =
| 3data4 = | 4data4 =
| image5 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Tomoko Tamura 2024-10-26(4) (cropped).jpg|120x120px |bSize = 130|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 0}}
| party5 = Japanese Communist Party
| leader5 = Tomoko Tamura
| leader_since5 = 18 January 2024
| last_election5 = 11 seats
| seats_needed5 = {{increase}}114
| seats_before5 = 11
| seats5 =
| seat_change5 =
| 1data5 = | 2data5 =
| 3data5 = | 4data5 =
| image6 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Yūichirō Tamaki 2025-02-08(2) (cropped).jpg|bSize = 148|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 12}}
| party6 = DPP
| leader6 = Yuichiro Tamaki
| leader_since6 = 11 September 2020
| last_election6 = 10 seats
| seats_needed6 = {{increase}}116
| seats_before6 = 9
| seats6 =
| seat_change6 =
| 1data6 = | 2data6 =
| 3data6 = | 4data6 =
| image7 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Taro Yamamoto 2022-6-26(1)(cropped).jpg|bSize = 140|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 8}}
| party7 = Reiwa Shinsengumi
| leader7 = Tarō Yamamoto
| leader_since7 = 1 April 2019
| last_election7 = 5 seats
| seats_needed7 = {{increase}}120
| seats_before7 = 5
| seats7 =
| seat_change7 =
| 1data7 = | 2data7 =
| 3data7 = | 4data7 =
| image8 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Mizuho_Fukushima_2024-6-30_(cropped).png|120x120px |bSize = 150 |cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 15}}
| party8 = SDP
| leader8 = Mizuho Fukushima
| leaders_seat8 =
| leader_since8 = 1 September 2023
| last_election8 = 1 seat
| seats_needed8 = {{increase}}123
| seats_before8 = 2
| seats8 =
| seat_change8 =
| 1data8 = | 2data8 =
| 3data8 = | 4data8 =
| image9 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Sohei Kamiya 2023-2-19(1) (cropped).jpg|120x120px |bSize = 140|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 8}}
| leader9 = Sohei Kamiya
| leader_since9 = 30 August 2023
| party9 = Sanseitō
| last_election9 = 1 seat
| seats_needed9 = {{increase}}124
| seats_before9 = 1
| seats9 =
| seat_change9 =
| 1data9 = | 2data9 =
| 3data9 = | 4data9 =
| map_image =
| map_caption =
| title = President
| before_election = Masakazu Sekiguchi | before_party = Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)
| after_election = | after_party =
}}
The 27th general election of the House of Councillors is scheduled to be held in Japan by 22 July 2025 to elect 124 of the 248 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years.{{Cite web |title=第27回参議院議員選挙（参議院議員通常選挙）2025年07月28日任期満了 ｜ 選挙ドットコム |url=https://go2senkyo.com/sangiin/20376 |access-date=2024-06-17 |website=選挙ドットコム |language=ja |archive-date=2 March 2025 |archive-url=
https://web.archive.org/web/20250302124235/https://go2senkyo.com/sangiin/20376 |url-status=live}}{{Cite web |title=参議院議員の通常選挙の期日 |url=https://houseikyoku.sangiin.go.jp/column/column054.htm |access-date=17 June 2024 |website=Legislative Bureau House of Councillors |language=ja |archive-date=2 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250302124237/https://houseikyoku.sangiin.go.jp/column/column054.htm |url-status=live}}{{cite web|url=https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025031700841 |script-title=ja:参院選、東京は合併選挙に |trans-title=Tokyo to hold joint election for House of Councillors election |work=時事ドットコム |date=17 March 2025 |language=ja |archive-date=28 March 2025 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20250328103828/https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025031700841
|url-status=live}}
The elections will take place about 10 months into the premiership of Shigeru Ishiba, who has governed Japan as Prime Minister since he won the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September 2024. Shortly after he became Prime Minister, Ishiba announced snap elections to the House of Representatives for 27 October, which saw the LDP lose its majority for the first time since 2009. Since November 2024, Ishiba has governed as the leader of a minority government, struggling to pass legislation and budget agreements without the support of opposition parties. Growing dissatisfaction with the LDP and a scandal involving gift vouchers given to MPs by Ishiba have hurt his approval ratings. Simultaneously, opposition parties have attempted to unite in an effort to deny the LDP a majority in the election; the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Ishin no Kai Party in particular formulated plans to hold “opposition primaries” in several prefectures.
Electoral system
Elections to the House of Councillors (HOC) are held every three years. During each election, half of the Upper House members (Councilors) are up for election. This means each member serves a six-year term. For example, those elected in 2019 will be up for reelection in this summer election.
The electoral system is similar to that of the House of Representatives (HOR), with a few key differences: Instead of specific districts like in the House (for example, Kyoto-2), the districts for the HOC are solely prefectural. Candidates are elected using a combination of the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system and first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting in both multi-member and single-member prefectural electoral districts. (Certain prefecture are small enough to yield a single Councilor, for example Fukushima prefecture). Roughly half of the candidates are elected through proportional representation (PR). Elections to the House of Councilors use a national PR list, as opposed the House of Representatives, which divides PR into various regional blocks. The list candidates are elected on a national level using proportional representation, while constituency Councilors are elected by prefecture via STV or FPTP in prefectures that can have only 1 Councilor or up to 6, depending on population.
Background
{{see also|2024 Japanese general election}}
= Previous election =
The October 2024 general election resulted in the loss of majority of the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito governing coalition in the House of Representatives under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba,{{cite news|title=Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM|url=https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/17a98663e6d7-japanese-go-to-polls-as-new-pm-eyes-fresh-mandate-amid-money-scandal.html|work=Kyodo News|date=2024-10-28|archive-date=27 October 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241027130414/https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/17a98663e6d7-japanese-go-to-polls-as-new-pm-eyes-fresh-mandate-amid-money-scandal.html |url-status=live}}{{cite news|title=Japan's ruling coalition loses majority, election outcome in balance |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-votes-election-expected-punish-pm-ishibas-coalition-2024-10-26/|work=Reuters|date=2024-10-28 |language=ja |archive-date=13 November 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241113125520/https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-votes-election-expected-punish-pm-ishibas-coalition-2024-10-26/ |url-status=live}} with the possibility of the ruling coalition suffering another "major defeat" at the House of Councillors election if opposition parties unite their candidates.
= Multi-party cooperation =
== Opposition unification attempts ==
According to Jiji Press, if five opposition parties, including the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), make deals in the 32 single-seat constituencies, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition is projected to win 10 seats against the opposition camp's 22, and only three if the Nippon Ishin no Kai, also known as the Japan Innovation Party, joins the opposition alliance.{{cite news|title=Ruling Bloc May Suffer Major Defeat in 2025 Upper House Poll|date=2024-10-31|work=Jiji Press|url=https://jen.jiji.com/jc/i?g=eco&k=2024103101407 |archive-date=4 January 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250104205409/https://jen.jiji.com/jc/i?g=eco&k=2024103101407 |url-status=dead}} In January 2025 Ishin introduced a plan to the CDP that would seek to "unify" the opposition in single-member districts against the LDP; their proposal involves the use of online polls and holding primary elections. Reiwa, the Social Democrats, and the Democratic Party For the People (DPP) cast doubt on the plan while the Communists declined to participate entirely.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-01-24 |title=維新 参院選の予備選案 立民に説明 1人区の候補者一本化に向け {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250124/k10014702971000.html |access-date=2025-01-25 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=2 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250302124234/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250124/k10014702971000.html |url-status=live}} Later in February, Ishin announced that a decision on whether or not to hold opposition primaries would be made within the month; party Secretary General {{ill|Ryohei Iwatani|jp|岩谷良平}} commented that every party except the Communist Party had been "quite positive" about the plan. He also said the party was open to reforms to their plan by the CDP.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-02-03 |title=維新 岩谷幹事長 参院選めぐり"野党の予備選実施 2月中判断" {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250203/k10014711501000.html |access-date=2025-02-04 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=4 February 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250204011636/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250203/k10014711501000.html |url-status=live}} In early March, Ishin co-leader Seiji Maehara proposed running a primary system with the CDP in the prefectures of Shiga, Nara and Wakayama (1 seat each) for election; all of them are in the area of influence of Osaka, Ishin's stronghold.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-13 |title=維新、予備選「滋賀・奈良・和歌山優先を」 立民に打診 |url=https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA1342K0T10C25A3000000/ |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=日本経済新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=
https://web.archive.org/web/20250318093018/https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA1342K0T10C25A3000000/ |url-status=live}} Speaking on the prospect of uniting the opposition CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda stated "I generally support the plan, but I have told Maehara that we need the participation of all opposition parties, so we should make an appeal for them to participate, and that if the only opposition candidates in a constituency are from the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party [Ishin], then we should settle it through a primary election."{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-13 |title=参院選 維新 前原氏 立民 野田氏に競合区での予備選実施を要請 {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250313/k10014748751000.html |access-date=2025-03-17 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318142126/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250313/k10014748751000.html |url-status=live}} On 1 April, Ichirō Ozawa announced an agreement between the CDP and Ishin no Kai to have an unified single candidate in Shiga, Nara and Wakayama prefectures.{{Cite web |title=立憲・小沢氏、近畿3選挙区一本化で「維新と合意」 参院選巡り |url=https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250401/k00/00m/010/146000c |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250402010742/https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250401/k00/00m/010/146000c |archive-date=2 April 2025 |access-date=2025-04-01 |website=毎日新聞 |language=ja}}{{Cite web |title=現実味帯びる「ホップ、ステップ、肉離れ」 政権奪取へ熱量欠く立憲 |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST2S168YT2SUTFK01CM.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250322234404/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST2S168YT2SUTFK01CM.html |archive-date=22 March 2025 |access-date=2025-04-01 |website=朝日新聞 |language=ja}}
On 6 March, the DPP began working on a policy agreement with the CDP.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-06 |title=国民民主と連合“3月中に基本政策の方向性を” 立民含む合意へ {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250306/k10014741161000.html |access-date=2025-03-28 |website=NHKニュース |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250328093441/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250306/k10014741161000.html |language=ja |archive-date=28 March 2025 |url-status=live}} In March, Mainichi reported that the CDP & DPP were expected to sign a basic policy agreement ahead of the election that would likely cover the Constitution, foreign policy/security, economy, energy, and diversity.{{Cite web |title=立憲・国民・連合、参院選見据え基本政策で合意へ 選挙協力進むか |url=https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250326/k00/00m/010/353000c |access-date=2025-04-03 |website=毎日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=26 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250326203025/https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250326/k00/00m/010/353000c
|url-status=live}} Sankei Shimbun reported in early April that cooperation between the CDP and DPP cooperation was in doubt ahead of the election, with the former viewing the latter as an insincere "cocky upstart," while the DPP viewed CDP members as not garnering support because it "only cares about elections."{{Cite web |last=永原 慎吾 |first=深津 響 |date=2025-04-01 |title=「成りあがりが調子に乗っている」立民と国民民主、企業・団体献金や基本政策で反目 |url=https://www.sankei.com/article/20250401-TBBWO3TI3BKXHBZMAJOIGL6W2I/ |access-date=2025-04-03 |website=産経新聞：産経ニュース |language=ja |archive-date=1 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250401154734/https://www.sankei.com/article/20250401-TBBWO3TI3BKXHBZMAJOIGL6W2I/
|url-status=live}} The two parties continued to struggle with election cooperation.{{Cite web |last=康彦 |first=平岡 |date=2025-04-08 |title=参院選奈良選挙区、立民と国民が一本化に否定的 連合「応援できる態勢整っていない」 |url=https://www.sankei.com/article/20250408-CVVMWXOHXBJOPO57W3PELHKLXM/ |access-date=2025-04-08 |website=産経新聞：産経ニュース |language=ja |archive-date=8 April 2025 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20250408005904/https://www.sankei.com/article/20250408-CVVMWXOHXBJOPO57W3PELHKLXM/
|url-status=live}}
== LDP-Komeito alliance ==
The ruling LDP signed an agreement with the Komeito (their coalition partner since 2012) in February regarding cooperation in the election, which stated that the LDP would support Komeito candidates in 5 districts & set conditions for Komeito support of those implicated in the slush fund scandal.{{Cite web |date=2025-02-28 |title=自公、参院選協力で合意 「不記載」議員は推薦に条件 |url=https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA282GL0Y5A220C2000000/ |access-date=2025-03-02 |website=日本経済新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=28 February 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250228101530/https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA282GL0Y5A220C2000000/ |url-status=live}} At the LDP’s party convention on 9 March, Ishiba said the party should aim to unify and return to its roots of “people-friendly politics.”{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-09 |title=石破首相 夏の参議院選挙に向け 党勢力結集を呼びかけ {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250309/k10014744251000.html |access-date=2025-03-10 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=21 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250321042758/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250309/k10014744251000.html |url-status=live}} The day earlier Ishiba stated he wanted to “win at all costs.”{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-08 |title=今夏の参院選と都議選 石破首相 "何としても勝ち抜きたい" {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250308/k10014743791000.html |access-date=2025-03-10 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=11 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250311200023/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250308/k10014743791000.html |url-status=live}} Ishiba’s former leadership rival Takayuki Kobayashi criticized Ishiba’s speech, claiming he did not get a sense of a string message from the Prime Minister; others believed the part’s minority status in the Diet hurt the LDP, and Ishiba's efforts to shape the country’s national agenda.{{Cite web |last=政治部 |first=時事通信 |date=2025-03-09 |title=国造りの訴え「感じず」 自民・小林鷹氏、首相演説に不満：時事ドットコム |url=https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025030900300&g=pol |access-date=2025-03-10 |website=時事ドットコム |language=ja |archive-date=9 March 2025 |archive-url=
https://web.archive.org/web/20250309083713/https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025030900300&g=pol |url-status=live}}{{Cite web |date=2025-03-09 |title=「奈落の一途を…」首相に冷ややかな目線 立党70年の自民党大会：朝日新聞 |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST393D9ZT39UTFK00CM.html |access-date=2025-03-10 |website=朝日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=12 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250312212341/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST393D9ZT39UTFK00CM.html |url-status=live}} Sanae Takaichi, also a former LDP leadership rival, was critical of Ishiba's speech as well.{{Cite web |title=「高市早苗氏がふさわしい」自民党内から「石破総理交代」論 |url=https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_politics/articles/000410713.html?display=full |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=テレ朝news |language=ja |archive-date=13 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250313072006/https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_politics/articles/000410713.html |url-status=live}} Kobayashi would later advise the party to assess Ishiba's presidential election manifesto & the party's previous genera; election manifesto ahead of the summer upper house election, arguing that the party should check on progress.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-24 |title=（短信）自民・小林氏「総裁選公約、参院選前に検証を」 |url=https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO87537590T20C25A3PE8000/ |access-date=2025-04-03 |website=日本経済新聞 |language=ja |archive-date= 24 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250324084002/https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO87537590T20C25A3PE8000/
|url-status=live}} On the same day as Ishiba's speech, Mio Sugita was revealed as an endorsed candidate for proportional representation in the election.{{Cite web |title=自民党大会 「夏の参院選勝利が最重要課題」 ［写真特集4/16］ |url=https://mainichi.jp/graphs/20250309/mpj/00m/010/066000f/20250309mpj00m010063000p |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=毎日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318073409/https://mainichi.jp/graphs/20250309/mpj/00m/010/066000f/20250309mpj00m010063000p |url-status=live}} In 2022 and 2023, Sugita had been found guilty of human rights violations by the Sapporo Legal Affairs Bureau for posting discriminatory statements against ethnic Koreans, LGBT people and others on her blog.{{Cite news |date=2023-10-19 |title=LDP's Sugita hit with 2nd human rights violation ruling in posts targeting Koreans in Japan |url=https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20231019/p2a/00m/0na/008000c |access-date=2025-03-14 |work=Mainichi Daily News |archive-date=19 October 2023 |archive-url=
https://web.archive.org/web/20231019140531/https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20231019/p2a/00m/0na/008000c |url-status=live}} Sugita's remarks, for which she apologized, were largely considered to be racist.{{Cite web |title=参院選で自民、杉田水脈氏擁立へ：北海道新聞デジタル |url=https://www.hokkaido-np.co.jp/article/1131256/ |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=北海道新聞デジタル |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318090948/https://www.hokkaido-np.co.jp/article/1131256/ |url-status=live}} The Asahi Shimbun reported that the LDP's decision to endorse the controversial former lawmaker was likely due to requests from the conservative wing of the faction close to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whom Sugita was said to be close to.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-12 |title=杉田水脈氏の参院選公認に党内外から異論 自民が公認した理由は：朝日新聞 |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3C3Q6KT3CUEFT00VM.html |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=朝日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318020351/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3C3Q6KT3CUEFT00VM.html |url-status=live}} On 11 April 2025, LDP Chief Advisor Taro Aso described the election situation as an "emergency" for the LDP, and stated that the ruling parties had to maintain their majority in the upper house.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-04-11 |title=自民 麻生最高顧問 “今は非常時 参院選で与党過半数維持を” {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250411/k10014777241000.html |access-date=2025-04-20 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=12 April 2025 |archive-url=
https://web.archive.org/web/20250412082258/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250411/k10014777241000.html
|url-status=live}}
The Komeito published a draft manifesto centered around lowering gas prices and getting rid of provisional gas taxes.{{Cite web |last=政治部 |first=時事通信 |date=2025-04-10 |title=公明、ガソリン減税訴え 参院選の重点政策素案：時事ドットコム |url=https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025041001286&g=pol |access-date=2025-04-10 |website=時事ドットコム |language=ja |archive-date=11 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250411072929/https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025041001286&g=pol
|url-status=live}} Regarding tariffs imposed by the United States, Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito argued that "the most effective [economic response] would be a tax cut," and said that a cash handout should be distributed in the meantime until tax cut are implemented so as to provide relief to citizens.{{Cite web |title=公明・斉藤代表「減税を柱とした経済対策を」 つなぎで現金給付も |url=https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250410/k00/00m/010/084000c |access-date=2025-04-10 |website=毎日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=11 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250411121043/https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250410/k00/00m/010/084000c
|url-status=live}}
== Other developments ==
The “partial coalition” between the LDP-Komeito coalition and the opposition Ishin party reached an agreement in February that ensued the passage of the fiscal year 2025 budget.{{Cite web |last=Shimbun |first=The Yomiuri |date=2025-02-27 |title='Partial Coalition' a Tricky Balancing Act for LDP; Agreement Barely Reached Over FY2025 Budget |url=https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20250227-240733/ |access-date=2025-03-02 |website=japannews.yomiuri.co.jp |archive-date=27 February 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250227093600/https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20250227-240733/ |url-status=live}}{{Cite web |date=2025-02-27 |title=高校授業無償化が柱の新年度予算案、合意文書に自公維が署名…予算成立確実に |url=https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20250225-OYT1T50142/ |access-date=2025-03-02 |website=Yomiuri Shimbun |archive-date=25 February 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250225095649/https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20250225-OYT1T50142/ |language=ja |url-status=live}} The budget included provisions that called free high school education & social insurance premium fee cuts.{{Cite web |date=2025-02-25 |title=自民・公明・維新、予算修正で党首合意 高校無償化170万人対象 |url=https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA1753H0X10C25A2000000/ |access-date=2025-03-02 |website=日本経済新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=4 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250304004258/https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA1753H0X10C25A2000000/ |url-status=live}} The budget was finalized in March 2025 after several revisions.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-31 |title=2025年度予算が成立 参院で修正、現行憲法下で初 |url=https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA3114Z0R30C25A3000000/ |access-date=2025-04-03 |website=日本経済新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=31 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250331113213/https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA3114Z0R30C25A3000000/
|url-status=live}} The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition and the opposition DPP later agreed to maintain political donations to party branches under certain conditions and to strengthen information disclosures.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-31 |title=企業・団体献金、収支報告書のオンライン提出条件に党支部受領を容認…自民・公明・国民民主で合意 |url=https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20250331-OYT1T50173/ |access-date=2025-04-03 |website=読売新聞オンライン |language=ja |archive-date=1 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250401075550/https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20250331-OYT1T50173/
|url-status=live}}
In March, reinstated DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki stated that the party's goal was to win 21 or more seats in the Upper House.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-04 |title=国民 玉木氏が代表復帰 "参院選で21議席以上を目指す" {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250304/k10014739431000.html |access-date=2025-03-06 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=4 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250304054719/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250304/k10014739431000.html |url-status=live}} Tamaki later clarified that the party would "field as many candidates as possible..." on 25 March.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-25 |title=国民 玉木代表 参院選 “1人区でも できるだけ候補者擁立” {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250325/k10014759791000.html |access-date=2025-03-26 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=26 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250326072620/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250325/k10014759791000.html |url-status=live}}{{Cite web |date=2025-03-26 |title=立憲・小沢一郎氏 国民民主の勢いは「そろそろ峠だわな」 |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3T2W9XT3TUTFK00QM.html |access-date=2025-03-26 |website=The Asahi Shimbun |language=ja |archive-date=26 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250326072850/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3T2W9XT3TUTFK00QM.html |url-status=live}} That same month, the DPP nominated university professor & conservative commentator Yamada Yoshihiko as a candidate in the proportional representation block.{{Cite web |last=慎吾 |first=永原 |date=2025-03-28 |title=国民民主、山田吉彦氏の参院選擁立を正式発表 進む保守層の「自民離れ」 |url=https://www.sankei.com/article/20250328-FMTUA6ETJNK3DINPMAWXVSVZVU/ |access-date=2025-03-29 |website=産経新聞：産経ニュース |language=ja |archive-date=1 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250401124924/https://www.sankei.com/article/20250328-FMTUA6ETJNK3DINPMAWXVSVZVU/ |url-status=live}} Yasushi Adachi, a former member of Ishin who left the party in 2024, announced he would run as a candidate of the DPP in Osaka Prefecture, Ishin's regional stronghold.{{Cite web |last=日本テレビ |title=元維新の足立康史氏が国民民主から参院選に立候補へ…大阪選挙区｜日テレNEWS NNN |url=https://news.ntv.co.jp/category/politics/e0085754b8ce4f169e3e30dd1d70935c |access-date=2025-04-11 |website=日テレNEWS NNN |language=ja |archive-date=11 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250411011624/https://news.ntv.co.jp/category/politics/e0085754b8ce4f169e3e30dd1d70935c
|url-status=live}}
If he wins he might be the first non-Ishin non-government member since 2013.
Sanseito announced they would aim for 6 seats.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-09 |title=参政 党大会 神谷代表 "夏の参院選 6議席の獲得目指す" {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250309/k10014744331000.html |access-date=2025-03-10 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=12 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250312190607/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250309/k10014744331000.html |url-status=live}}
The Social Democratic Party said they would attempt to win more than 3 seats in the chamber.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-15 |title=社民 福島党首 夏の参議院選挙で “3議席以上の獲得を目指す” {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250315/k10014750781000.html |access-date=2025-03-15 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=16 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250316112948/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250315/k10014750781000.html |url-status=live}}
= Ishiba gift certificate scandal =
On 13 March 2025, The Asahi Shimbun revealed that several LDP members of parliament who were elected for the first time in the 2024 general election received gift certificates from the office of Ishiba in early March.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-13 |title=石破首相側が15人の議員側に商品券配布 10万円ずつか、複数証言：朝日新聞 |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3F35BJT3FUQIP002M.html |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=朝日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=19 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250319113137/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3F35BJT3FUQIP002M.html |url-status=live}} Ishiba’s office later confirmed that he had distributed gift certificates worth approximately ¥100,000 ($676) each to about a dozen lawmakers as "souvenirs” intended to be used to purchase new suits. Ishiba claimed the certificates were paid from his personal funds and were not intended for political activities but as a supplement for living expenses.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-14 |title=石破首相 自民議員に商品券配る「法的問題なし」野党は追及へ {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250313/k10014749141000.html |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=13 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250313123637/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250313/k10014749141000.html |url-status=live}} According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, most of the lawmakers decided to return the gift certificates instead of using them. The incident took place while discussions were underway in the Diet on the transparency of political funds, particularly regarding corporate and organizational donations.{{Cite web |title=石破首相、自民党１５議員に商品券１０万円分を配布…新年度予算案の審議に影響する可能性（読売新聞オンライン） |url=https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/1974dd51b28c714acaca11db6f0dc4761ce14eb9 |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=Yahoo!ニュース |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318123200/https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/1974dd51b28c714acaca11db6f0dc4761ce14eb9 |url-status=live}} Ishiba had met with Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito the day before, who pledged his party's support for him; earlier in the week upper house LDP lawmaker Shoji Nishida publicly stated that Ishiba should be replaced by a new party President.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-12 |title=公明党・斉藤鉄夫代表「石破政権を支える」 首相と面会 |url=https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA128920S5A310C2000000/ |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=日本経済新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318081205/https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA128920S5A310C2000000/ |url-status=live}}{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-03-12 |title=自民 西田参院議員"新年度予算案成立後 新総裁選び直すべき" {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250312/k10014747451000.html |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318052333/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250312/k10014747451000.html |url-status=live}} Ishiba, who was elected as LDP President on a reformist platform, was widely criticized by opposition lawmakers. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda promised to pursue inquiries over the incident in the Diet.{{Cite web |title=首相 商品券巡り改めて違法性否定 |url=https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6532333 |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=Yahoo!ニュース |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318063813/https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6532333 |url-status=live}} Osaka Governor and co-leader of the Ishin party Hirofumi Yoshimura criticized Ishiba’s actions.{{Cite tweet |number=1900349731265716369 |user=hiroyoshimura |script-title=ja:首相 商品券巡り改めて違法性否定 2025年3月14日 →これはダメだと思います。しかし、政治とお金をただそうとやってきてるのに、残念です。|trans-title=Prime Minister denies illegality of gift certificates March 14, 2025 → I think THIS IS WRONG! However, it is disappointing because he has been trying to correct politics and money! |first=Hirofumi |last=Yoshimura |date=13 March 2025 |access-date=13 March 2025 |language=ja |archive-date=18 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250318061344/X.com/hiroyoshimura/status/1900349731265716369 |url-status=live}} The Political Funds Control Act prohibits donations of cash or securities to individual politicians; the 100,000 yen in gift certificates in this case could have been considered a 'donation’ in this case.{{Cite web |title=立憲・野田代表、石破首相の地元・鳥取で｢みなさんもがっかり｣ |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3N3H56T3NUTFK006M.html |access-date=2025-04-01 |website=The Asahi Shimbun |language=ja |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250322172159/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3N3H56T3NUTFK006M.html |archive-date=22 March 2025 |url-status=live}}
== Possible motions of no-confidence ==
{{See also|Motion of no confidence}}
Leader of the Opposition and CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda stated during a press conference on 21 March that his party would "comprehensively determine" whether to submit a no-confidence motion, suggesting that the scandal alone could not lead to submission. Earlier that month, Asahi reported that the CDP had shifted towards a "wait and see" tactic instead of pressuring Ishiba to step down immediately, likely to avoid a simple change in leaders that could play to the LDP's advantage ahead of the election.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-17 |title=立憲内に「石破氏のままが得策」の意見 不信任案に「様子見」の背景：朝日新聞 |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3K2DFDT3KUTFK00DM.html |access-date=2025-04-03 |website=朝日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=17 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250317230129/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3K2DFDT3KUTFK00DM.html
|url-status=live}} DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki said on 17 that his party would "consider a range of options" including a no-confidence motion in dealing with the scandal; he encouraged Ishiba should testify in front of the Ethics Committee.{{Cite web |date=2025-03-16 |title=国民・玉木氏、内閣不信任案｢あらゆる手段を考えて厳しく向き合う｣：朝日新聞 |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3J0F6WT3JULFA001M.html |access-date=2025-04-03 |website=朝日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=21 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250321012121/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST3J0F6WT3JULFA001M.html
|url-status=live}} Ishin's co-leader Seiji Maehara later told Sankei in an exclusive interview that the party could vote in favor of a no-confidence motion, stating that "everything is on the table" despite the party's cooperation with the LDP on the annual budget.{{Cite web |last=産経新聞 |date=2025-03-21 |title=維新・前原共同代表、不信任案「賛成あり得る」 選択的夫婦別姓「今国会で急ぐ必要ない」 |url=https://www.sankei.com/article/20250321-WI7WXR4B7ZPCJJ3COAVQGEAWKE/ |access-date=2025-04-03 |website=産経新聞：産経ニュース |language=ja |archive-date=21 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250321100650/https://www.sankei.com/article/20250321-WI7WXR4B7ZPCJJ3COAVQGEAWKE/
|url-status=live}} Tamaki would later encourage the CDP to seriously consider proposing a no-confidence motion against the government if it's policies didn't align with "national interests."{{Cite web |last=政治部 |first=時事通信 |date=2025-04-06 |title=内閣不信任、立民に提出促す 国民・玉木氏、損得勘定排除を：時事ドットコム |url=https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025040600391&g=pol |access-date=2025-04-08 |website=時事ドットコム |language=ja |archive-date=9 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250409134333/https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025040600391&g=pol
|url-status=live}}
After tariffs were announced by the Trump administration in the United States, the CDP said they would temporarily cease pursuing political scandals during Diet deliberation to instead work with the government on responding to tariffs, with Noda saying he would use the leaders' debate in April for such discussions.{{Cite web |date=2025-04-09 |title=政治とカネは｢一時休戦｣ 立憲｢関税問題は国難になりかねない｣：朝日新聞 |url=https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST492SQNT49UTFK002M.html |access-date=2025-04-10 |website=朝日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=10 April 2025 |archive-url=
https://web.archive.org/web/20250410180828/https://www.asahi.com/articles/AST492SQNT49UTFK002M.html
|url-status=live}}
Political parties
{{see also|List of political parties in Japan}}
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
! colspan="2" rowspan="2" | Parties ! rowspan="2" | Leader ! rowspan="2" | Ideology ! colspan="2" | Seats ! rowspan="2" | Status |
| Last election
! Before election |
|---|
| style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}" |
| {{Nowrap|Conservatism | {{composition bar|119|248|{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}}} | {{composition bar|115|248|{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}}} | {{Yes2|Governing coalition}} |
| style="background:{{party color|Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan}}" |
| Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan | {{composition bar|39|248|{{party color|Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan}}}} | {{composition bar|38|248|{{party color|Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan}}}} | rowspan="1" {{No2|Opposition}} |
| style="background:{{party color|Komeito}}" |
| Komeito | Buddhist democracy | {{composition bar|27|248|{{party color|Komeito}}}} | {{composition bar|27|248|{{party color|Komeito}}}} | {{Yes2|Governing coalition}} |
| style="background:{{party color|Nippon Ishin no Kai}}" |
| Hirofumi Yoshimura | Right-wing populism | {{composition bar|21|248|{{party color|Nippon Ishin no Kai}}}} | {{composition bar|20|248|{{party color|Nippon Ishin no Kai}}}} | rowspan="6" {{No2|Opposition}} |
| style="background:{{party color|Japanese Communist Party}}" |
| Communism | {{composition bar|11|248|{{party color|Japanese Communist Party}}}} | {{composition bar|11|248|{{party color|Japanese Communist Party}}}} |
| style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party For the People}}" |
| Democratic Party For the People | {{composition bar|10|248|{{party color|Democratic Party For the People}}}} | {{composition bar|9|248|{{party color|Democratic Party For the People}}}} |
| style="background:{{party color|Reiwa Shinsengumi}}" |
| Progressivism | {{composition bar|5|248|{{party color|Reiwa Shinsengumi}}}} | {{composition bar|5|248|{{party color|Reiwa Shinsengumi}}}} |
| style="background:#60bcaf" |
| Ayaka Otsu (disputed) | {{Nowrap|Anti–TV license fees}} | {{composition bar|2|248|hex=#60bcaf}} | {{composition bar|0|248|hex=#60bcaf}} |
| style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party (Japan)}}" |
| {{Nowrap|Social democracy}} | {{composition bar|1|248|{{party color|Social Democratic Party (Japan)}}}} | {{composition bar|2|248|{{party color|Social Democratic Party (Japan)}}}} |
| style="background:{{party color|Sanseito}}" |
| Sanseitō | {{Nowrap|Ultraconservatism | {{composition bar|1|248|{{party color|Sanseito}}}} | {{composition bar|1|248|{{party color|Sanseito}}}} | style="background-color: #D3D3D3;" | Unaffiliated |
Campaign issues
= CDP =
In April, the CDP proposed lowering the consumption tax rate to 5%; a party study group advised raising corporate and income taxes.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-04-16 |title=立民 有志議員 “消費税率5％に引き下げ” 執行部に申し入れへ {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250416/k10014781151000.html |access-date=2025-04-20 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=22 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250422072841/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250416/k10014781151000.html |url-status=live}} At a press conference on 2 May, Noda indicated that he was not particular about the one-year tax cut period for the proposed constitutional plan to lower the consumption tax rate on food to 0%.{{Cite web |title=立憲・野田代表 消費減税「期限は協議で」 柔軟に対応する方針 |url=https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250502/k00/00m/010/090000c |access-date=2025-05-03 |website=毎日新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=3 May 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250503133410/https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250502/k00/00m/010/090000c
|url-status=live}}
= Communists =
The Communist party also supported lowering the consumption tax rate to 5% (with the aim of eventually abolishing it), as well as wage increases for "small and medium-sized" enterprises.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-04-16 |title=共産 消費税率一律5％へ引き下げ 中小企業賃上げ支援 緊急提言 {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250416/k10014781241000.html |access-date=2025-04-20 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=17 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250417073841/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250416/k10014781241000.html |url-status=live}}{{Cite web |title=共産、参院選へ消費税5% 最低賃金1700円目指す |url=https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA16CYA0W5A410C2000000/ |access-date=16 April 2025 |website=毎日本経済新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=16 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250416144750/https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA16CYA0W5A410C2000000/
|url-status=live}}
= Social Democratic Party =
The Social Democrats advocated for abolishing the consumption tax rate completely, particularly for food items. The party also promised to increase the wages of care workers, suspend all nuclear power plants, pass legislation for optional separate surnames for married couples and same-sex marriage, and ratifying of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.{{Cite web |last=日本放送協会 |date=2025-04-16 |title=社民 参議院選挙へ公約骨子まとめる “食料品の消費税なくす” {{!}} NHK |url=https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250416/k10014781201000.html |access-date=2025-04-20 |website=NHKニュース |language=ja |archive-date=22 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250422072818/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250416/k10014781201000.html |url-status=live}}{{Cite web |date=2025-04-16 |title=社民「食品の消費税率ゼロ」 参院選公約の骨子発表、選択的夫婦別姓や同性婚の実現目指す |url=https://www.sankei.com/article/20250416-Y2JF2JEFTNI7NL563XS6AWKGQ4/ |access-date=2025-04-20 |website=産経新聞 |language=ja |archive-date=16 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250416121724/https://www.sankei.com/article/20250416-Y2JF2JEFTNI7NL563XS6AWKGQ4/
|url-status=live}}
Opinion polls
= Proportional voting intention =
| class="wikitable mw-datatable sortable mw-collapsible" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;" | |
| style="height:30px; background-color:#8B8B8B"
! rowspan="2" | Fieldwork date ! rowspan="2" | Polling firm ! class="unsortable" rowspan="2" | Sample size ! class="unsortable" | LDP ! class="unsortable" | CDP ! class="unsortable" | DPP ! class="unsortable" | Ishin ! class="unsortable" | Komei ! class="unsortable" | Reiwa ! class="unsortable" | JCP ! class="unsortable" | DIY ! class="unsortable" | CPJ ! class="unsortable" | SDP ! class="unsortable" rowspan="2" | Others ! class="unsortable" rowspan="2" | None/{{abbr|Und.|Undecided}} ! class="unsortable" rowspan="2" | {{abbr|No ans.|No answer}} ! class="unsortable" rowspan="2" | Lead | |
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party For the People}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Japan Innovation Party}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Komeito}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Reiwa Shinsengumi}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Japanese Communist Party}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Sanseitō}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Conservative Party of Japan}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party (Japan)}}" | | |
|---|---|
| {{Opdrts|10|11|May|2025|year}}
|1,016 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |25.8 |8.9 |10.6 |2.9 |4 |3.9 |2.7 |0.8 |1 |0.8 |1 | colspan="2" style="background:#EEEEEE;" |37.6{{efn|Undecided/no answer: 33.9%; None: 3.7%}} | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |11.8 | |
| {{Opdrts|3|4|May|2025|year}}
|1,026 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |26 |11 |15 |9 |6 |7 |3 |2 |1 |1 |4 | colspan="2" |16 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |10 | |
| {{Opdrts|19|21|Apr|2025|year}}
|799 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |29 |14 |15 |6 |4 |6 |3 |1 |2 |1 |– |12 |7 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |14 | |
| {{Opdrts|19|20|Apr|2025|year}}
|1,240 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |23 |12 |17 |7 |4 |7 |5 |2 |1 |1 |2 | colspan="2" |19 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |4 | |
| {{Opdrts|19|20|Apr|2025|year}}
|1,015 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |23.7 |8.8 |13.3 |3.8 |2.9 |2.9 |2.8 |1.7 |1 |0.6 |0.9 | colspan="2" style="background:#EEEEEE;" |37.8{{efn|Undecided/no answer: 31.6%; None: 6.2%}} | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |14.1 | |
| {{Opdrts|19|20|Apr|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,030 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |27.2 |10.6 |11.8 |3.6 |3.5 |3 |3.4 |0.5 |0.9 |1.6 |1.1 | colspan="2" style="background:#EEEEEE;" |32.9{{efn|Undecided/no answer: 29.5%; None: 3.4%}} | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |5.7 | |
| {{Opdrts|11|14|Apr|2025|year}}
|Jiji Press{{Cite web |date=2025-04-17 |script-title=ja:参院比例投票先、自民２０．６％ 国民民主１０．６％、立民７．８％―時事世論調査 |trans-title=In the House of Councillors proportional vote, the LDP gets 20.6%, the Democratic Party for the People gets 10.6%, and the CDP gets 7.8% - Jiji Public Opinion Poll |url=https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025041700715&g=pol |access-date=2025-04-17 |website=Jiji Press |language=ja |archive-date=22 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250422073448/https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025041700715&g=pol |url-status=live}} |1,140 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |20.6 |7.8 |10.6 |4.9 |4.3 |5.6 |1.8 |1.6 |0.9 |0.6 |– | style="background:#EEEEEE;" colspan="2" |41.3 | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |20.7 | |
| {{Opdrts|12|13|Apr|2025|year}}
|995 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |25.3 |16.6 |11.6 |7.9 |5 |4.5 |6.6 |1.6 |1.4 |1.1 |3.5{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 0.5%; Others: 3%}} |14.8 |– |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |8.7 | |
| {{Opdrts|12|13|Apr|2025|year}}
|1,051 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |24.6 |12.3 |18.5 |3.9 |3.9 |4.1 |3.2 |1 |1.7 |0.8 |– | style="background:#EEEEEE;" colspan="2" |26 | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |1.4 | |
| {{Opdrts|12|13|Apr|2025|year}}
https://web.archive.org/web/20250408233932/https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250317/ddm/002/010/089000c |url-status=live}} |2,040 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |16 |11 |{{Party shading/Democratic Party for the People}} |16 |4 |3 |5 |3 |1 |1 |1 |– | style="background:#EEEEEE;" |38 |– | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |22 | |
| {{Opdrts|11|13|Apr|2025|year}}
|Yomiuri/NNN{{Cite web |date=2025-04-14 |script-title=ja:２０２５年４月 電話全国世論調査 質問と回答 |trans-title=April 2025 National Telephone Poll Questions and Answers |url=https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/yoron-chosa/20250413-OYT1T50110/ |access-date=2025-04-14 |website=Yomiuri Shimbun |language=ja|archive-date=22 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250422073939/https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/yoron-chosa/20250413-OYT1T50110/ |url-status=live}}{{Cite web |date=2025-04-13 |script-title=ja:“トランプ関税”影響を懸念する88％【NNN・読売新聞 世論調査】 |trans-title=88% of Americans are concerned about the impact of Trump tariffs [NNN/Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll] |url=https://news.ntv.co.jp/category/politics/f8fd7acfd2794e04806dd9fa2a7dd7f4 |access-date=2025-04-13 |website=Nippon News Network |language=ja |archive-date=22 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250422073947/https://news.ntv.co.jp/category/politics/f8fd7acfd2794e04806dd9fa2a7dd7f4 |url-status=live}} |1,026 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |27 |10 |15 |5 |4 |6 |4 |1 |2 |0 |– |19 |7 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |8 | |
| {{Opdrts|22|23|Mar|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,013 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |19.3 |8.5 |12 |3.2 |2.6 |5.3 |2.6 |1 |0.9 |0.4 |– | style="background:#EEEEEE;" colspan="2" |44.2{{efn|Undecided/no answer: 36.6%; None: 7.6%}} | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |24.9 | |
| {{Opdrts|22|23|Mar|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,025 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |24.1 |11.1 |11.2 |4.6 |3.2 |3.6 |3.9 |0.5 |1.3 |0.3 |0.5 | style="background:#EEEEEE;" colspan="2" |35.7{{efn|Undecided/no answer: 33.1%; None: 2.6%}} | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |11.6 | |
| {{Opdrts|22|23|Mar|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,046 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |24.3 |12.5 |13.4 |6.4 |4.1 |7.3 |3.6 |1.2 |0.3 |1.1 |0.4{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 0.1%; Others: 0.3%}} | style="background:#EEEEEE;" colspan="2" |25.4 | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |1.1 | |
| {{Opdrts|21|23|Mar|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |847 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |29 |13 |14 |9 |3 |8 |3 |1 |1 |0 |1 |11 |8 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |18 | |
| {{Opdrts|15|16|Mar|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |998 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |23.7 |20.6 |13.9 |6.2 |4.4 |3.4 |6.8 |1.2 |1.7 |1.3 |2.4 |14.2 |– |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |3.1 | |
| {{Opdrts|15|16|Mar|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,137 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |24 |12 |17 |7 |5 |7 |3 |1 |2 |1 |3 | colspan="2" |19 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |5 | |
| {{Opdrts|15|16|Mar|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |2,047 |16 |13 |{{Party shading/Democratic Party for the People}} |17 |5 |2 |5 |2 |1 |1 |0 |1 |style="background:#EEEEEE;" |38 |– | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |21 | |
| {{Opdrts|14|16|Mar|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,023 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |25 |11 |17 |6 |4 |5 |3 |1 |1 |0 |0 |20 |6 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |5 | |
| {{Opdrts|22|23|Feb|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,034 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |23.6 |10.7 |9.6 |6.2 |5.2 |3.7 |3.6 |1 |0.4 |0.8 |0.8 | colspan="2" style="background:#EEEEEE;" |34.4{{efn|Undecided/no answer: 31%; None: 3.4%}} | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |10.8 | |
| {{Opdrts|21|23|Feb|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |847 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |29 |13 |14 |7 |4 |8 |3 |1 |1 |0 |1{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 1%}} |10 |9 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |15 | |
| {{Opdrts|15|16|Feb|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,004 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |25.7 |20.8 |9.8 |8.3 |4.2 |4.6 |5.6 |0.6 |2.2 |1.5 |2.3{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 0.4%; Others: 1.9%}} |14.5 |– |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |4.9 | |
| {{Opdrts|15|16|Feb|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,111 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |26 |11 |16 |5 |5 |9 |4 |2 |2 |1 |1 | colspan="2" |18 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |8 | |
| {{Opdrts|15|16|Feb|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,063 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |24.9 |11.3 |11.5 |6.8 |3.5 |5.9 |2.5 |1.8 |1.9 |0.5 |0.7{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 0.5%; Others: 0.2%}} | colspan="2" style="background:#EEEEEE;" |28.7 | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |3.8 | |
| {{Opdrts|15|16|Feb|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |2,043 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |16 |11 |15 |5 |3 |5 |2 |0 |2 |0 |– | style="background:#EEEEEE;" |38 |3 | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |22 | |
| {{Opdrts|6|9|Feb|2025|year}}
|Jiji Press{{Cite web |date=2025-02-13 |script-title=ja:参院比例投票先、自民２２％ 国民民主が野党トップ―時事世論調査 |trans-title=Liberal Democratic Party gets 22% of Upper House proportional votes, Democratic Party for the People tops opposition party - Jiji Public Opinion Poll |url=https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025021300766&g=pol |access-date=2025-02-15 |website=Jiji Press |language=ja|archive-date=6 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250306112527/https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025021300766&g=pol |url-status=live}} |1,126 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |22 |9.7 |10.2 |3.6 |5.1 |3.5 |2.5 |1.3 |0.4 |0.4 |– | colspan="2" style="background:#EEEEEE;" |40.2 | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |18.2 | |
| {{Opdrts|25|26|Jan|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,064 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |26 |12.9 |14.9 |5.8 |3.8 |4.4 |4.1 |1 |1.4 |0.3 |0.4{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 0.1%; Others: 0.3%}} | colspan="2" |25 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |1 | |
| {{Opdrts|24|26|Jan|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |946 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |32 |13 |15 |8 |3 |5 |3 |2 |2 |1 |– |11 |8 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |17 | |
| {{Opdrts|18|19|Jan|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,103 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |25 |15 |15 |8 |6 |6 |3 |1 |1 |2 |2 | colspan="2" |16 |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |9 | |
| {{Opdrts|18|19|Jan|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |2,042 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |17 |14 |16 |6 |2 |4 |2 |1 |2 |0 |1 | style="background:#EEEEEE;" |35 |– | style="background:{{party color|Independent}} |18 | |
| {{Opdrts|11|12|Jan|2025|year}}
|url-status=live}} |996 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |27 |21.2 |8.8 |8 |4.5 |4.2 |7 |1.3 |2.2 |0.8 |2{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 0.2%; Others: 1.8%}} |12.9 |– |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |5.8 | |
| {{Opdrts|14|15|Dec|2024|year}}
|url-status=live}} |996 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |23.8 |22.7 |10.3 |9.1 |4.5 |2.7 |5.3 |1.5 |2 |1.5 |1.3{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 0.3%; Others: 1.0%}} |15.2 |– |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |1.1 | |
| {{Opdrts|16|17|Nov|2024|year}}
|url-status=live}} |1,003 |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |26.3 |21.0 |10.8 |7.8 |5.3 |2.7 |6.4 |1.9 |2.6 |0.7 |2.1{{efn|The Collaborative Party: 0.7%; Others: 1.4%}} |12.5 |– |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |5.3 | |
| style="background:#EFEFEF;"
|{{Opdrts | 27|Oct|2024|year}}
|53.84%{{efn|name=Election|Election turnout.}} |{{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |26.7 |21.2 |11.3 |9.4 |10.9 |7 |6.2 |3.4 |2.1 |1.7 |– |– |– |style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}; color:white" |5.5 |
= Seat projections =
| class="wikitable mw-datatable sortable mw-collapsible" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;"
|+Seat projections from analysts (district seats + proportional representation) | |
| style="height:30px; background-color:#8B8B8B"
! rowspan="2" |Analysts ! rowspan="2" |Publication/ ! rowspan="2" |Fieldwork date ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | LDP ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | CDP ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | DPP ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | Ishin ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | Komei ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | Reiwa ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | JCP ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | DIY ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | CPJ ! class="unsortable" width="40px" | SDP ! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" width="40px" | {{abbr|Ind.|Independents}}/ ! class="unsortable" style="width:20px;"| {{abbr|Gov.|Government parties (LDP and Komeito)}} ! class="unsortable" style="width:20px;"| {{abbr|Opp.|Non-government parties (CDP, Ishin, JCP, DPP, Reiwa, Sanseitō, SDP and CPJ) and others}} ! rowspan="2" |{{abbr|Gov.|Government parties (LDP and Komeito)}} | |
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}}" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party For the People}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Japan Innovation Party}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Komeito}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Reiwa Shinsengumi}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Japanese Communist Party}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Sanseitō}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Conservative Party of Japan}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party (Japan)}}" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:Green;" | ! data-sort-type="number" style="background:Red;"| | |
|---|---|
| Tadaoki Nogami{{Cite web |date=2025-04-07 |script-title=ja:永田町で囁かれる7月の「衆参ダブル選挙」 参院選詳細シミュレーションでは自公惨敗で参院過半数割れの可能性、国民民主大躍進で与野党逆転へ |trans-title=Rumors in Nagatacho of a "double election for the House of Representatives and House of Councillors" in July: A detailed simulation of the House of Councillors election shows the possibility of a crushing defeat for the LDP and Komeito, resulting in a loss of a majority in the House of Councillors, while a major advance for the Democratic Party for the People could see a reversal in the ruling and opposition parties' positions |url=https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20250407_2033482.html |access-date=2025-04-07 |website=Weekly Post |language=ja|archive-date=8 April 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250408043332/https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20250407_2033482.html?DETAIL
|url-status=live}} |Weekly Post |{{Opdrts | 7|Apr|2025|year}}
| {{Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)}} |{{abbr|34|29–39}} |{{abbr|30|25–32}} |{{abbr|22|19–25}} |{{abbr|9|8–12}} |{{abbr|11|11–12}} |{{abbr|5|4–6}} |{{abbr|4|3–4}} |{{abbr|1|1–2}} |{{abbr|1|0–1}} |{{abbr|0|0–1}} |7 |45 |{{no|79}} | style="background:{{party color|Independent}}" |–34 |
Notes
{{notelist}}