Augur (software)

Augur allows any user to create a prediction market on any topic.{{cite web|url=http://fortune.com/2018/07/09/augur-coin-crypto-rep-vitalik-buterin/|title=Ethereum-Based Blockchain Betting Platform Augur Just Launched. Here's Why It's Not Married to Ether|last=Shen|first=Lucinda|date=July 9, 2018|website=Fortune|access-date=July 25, 2018}}

There are two kinds of markets:

• Categorical markets have up to seven options; for example, "Will Alice win X election?" with "yes" and "no" as options, or "Who will win X election?" with five candidates as options.{{Cite web |last1=Fröberg |first1=Emil |last2=Ingre |first2=Gustav |last3=Knudsen |first3=Simon |title=Blockchain and prediction markets An analysis of three organizations implementing prediction markets using blockchain technology, and the future of blockchain prediction market |url=https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1306764/FULLTEXT01.pdf |website=INOMEXAMENSARBETE TEKNIK, GRUNDNIVÅ, 15 HP}} These markets are winners take all, making them similar to binary options.

• Scalar markets offer a spectrum of numerical outcomes; for example, "What will the closing price of Apple's stock be on January 1 2021?" Traders can "long" or "short" any value, i.e. bet that the result will be higher or lower than a certain value. If a trader longs at X value, the more above X the result is, the more money they make (and similarly for shorts).

"Invalid" is one of the outcomes in all markets, which is intended to help prevent scam markets and ensure that market questions and resolutions are unambiguous.{{cite news |last1=Castillo |first1=Michael del |title=Ethereum's First ICO Blazes Trail To A World Without Bosses |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2020/07/28/ethereums-first-ico-blazes-trail-to-a-world-without-bosses/ |date=July 28, 2020|access-date=9 August 2020 |work=Forbes |language=en}}

To resolve markets, "reporting" fees are used to incentivize the reporting of market outcomes.{{cite journal |last1=Abramowicz |first1=Michael |title=The Very Brief History of Decentralized Blockchain Governance |journal=Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment & Technology Law |date=2020 |volume=22 |page=273 |url=https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/vanep22&div=12&id=&page= |access-date=12 August 2020}}{{cite conference|vauthors=Freeman R, Lahaie S, Pennock D |title=Crowdsourced Outcome Determination in Prediction Markets |year=2017 |conference=Proceedings of the Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-17) |url= https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/AAAI/AAAI17/paper/view/14675/13807 |format=pdf |language=en}} Augur uses an ERC-20 token called REPv2 to incentivize reporters on its network to back their reports with tokens. The REPv2 token holders are entitled to the trading fees generated on the platform. Augur's security model has been rigorously quantified and shown to be secure.{{cite journal|url=https://ledgerjournal.org/ojs/index.php/ledger/article/view/166 |title=Decentralized Common Knowledge Oracles |last1=Williams|first1=Austin|last2=Peterson|first2=Jack |date=2019 |journal = Ledger |pages=157–90| volume=4 |doi=10.5195/ledger.2019.166 |arxiv=1912.01215 |s2cid=208547845 }} Augur runs on Ethereum.{{cite web |url=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/cryptocurrency-in-focus-augur-bets-on-politics-15154296 |title=Cryptocurrency in Focus: Augur Bets on Politics

|website=TheStreet.com |date=6 November 2019

|access-date=23 January 2020 }}

After a crowdfunding in August 2015, the project launched in July 2018.{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/08/09/blockchains-could-breathe-new-life-into-prediction-markets|title=Blockchains could breathe new life into prediction markets|date=9 August 2018|newspaper=The Economist|access-date=2018-12-02|language=en}}

Soon after the platform launched, users had created death pools — or assassination markets — on famous people.{{cite news |last1=Orcutt |first1=Mike |title=This new blockchain-based betting platform could cause Napster-size legal headaches |url=https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611757/this-new-ethereum-based-assassination-market-platform-could-cause-napster-size-legal/ |work=MIT Technology Review |date=August 2, 2018 |language=en}}{{cite news |last1=Orcutt |first1=Mike |title=The latest blockchain use case: anonymously betting on public-figure death pools |url=https://www.technologyreview.com/f/611729/the-latest-blockchain-use-case-anonymously-betting-on-public-figure-death-pools/ |work=MIT Technology Review |date=July 26, 2018 |language=en}}

Augur's user numbers dropped off sharply after launch in 2018: from 265 daily users in early July, to 37 on 8 August.

In July 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted resemblance of the Augur contracts to binary options, which would fall under its jurisdiction. Augur's decentralised design may allow it to sidestep regulatory difficulties, because Augur is just a protocol that allows users to set up their own prediction market, which developer Joseph Krug says "shift(s) legal responsibility to bettors".

In July 2020, Augur v2 was released. It included dramatic changes including the usage of DAI (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar) for trading, faster resolution of market outcomes (24 hours vs. v1's 7 days), a more user-friendly interface, making "Invalid" a tradeable outcome, allowing market creators to add affiliate fees to encourage others to share the market, and allowing the creation of orders without any fees.

Forbes described Augur v2 as "a significant leap forward in the world of decentralized applications that function similar to the internet but without the need for trusted third parties. If successful, the profound upgrades could be used to more than just place horse-bets without a bookie; they could mark a turning point in the next generation of the internet."

• Manifold (prediction market)
• Kalshi
• Polymarket
• PredictIt

{{Reflist}}

• {{cite journal |vauthors=Peterson J, Krug J, Zoltu M, Williams AK, Alexander S |date=2018 |title=Augur: a decentralized oracle and prediction market platform |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269705136 |journal=Forecast Foundation |doi=10.13140/2.1.1431.4563 |arxiv=1501.01042 |s2cid=6082844}}
• {{cite report |vauthors=Fröberg E, Ingre G, Knudsen S |title=Blockchain and Prediction Markets: An Analysis of Three Organizations Implementing Prediction Markets Using Blockchain Technology, and the Future of Blockchain Prediction Market |year=2018 |publisher=KTH Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS) |url= http://kth.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1306764/FULLTEXT01.pdf |language=en}}

{{Cryptocurrencies}}

Category:Prediction markets

Category:Ethereum tokens