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Pre-election pendulum for the 2019 Australian federal election

{{see also|Post-election pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election|Post-election pendulum for the 2019 Australian federal election}}

{{Use Australian English|date=April 2024}}

{{Use dmy dates|date=April 2022}}

{{main|2019 Australian federal election}}

{{2019 Australian federal election sidebar}}

At the 2016 federal election of the 150 House of Representatives seats the Liberal/National Coalition won 76, a one-seat majority, Labor won 69 seats and crossbenchers won the remaining five. A redistribution in 2017/18 changed the representation entitlements. For the next election, the number of seats in the House will increase to 151, South Australia will lose a seat, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) will gain one seat each.

The following Mackerras pendulum shows the notional margins for seats following boundary redistributions in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the ACT. Based on ABC analyst Antony Green's calculations of the effect of boundary redistributions for the next election,{{cite web |last1=Green |first1=Antony |title=2017–18 Federal Redistributions |url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/ |website=ABC Elections |publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation |accessdate=25 August 2018}} and the outcome of the 2018 Wentworth by-election, the pendulum has the Coalition government on 73 of 151 seats with the Labor opposition on 72 seats and a crossbench of six seats.

Assuming a theoretical nationwide uniform swing, the Labor opposition would need at least 50.7% of the two-party vote (at least a 1.1-point two-party swing) to win 76 seats and majority government. The incumbent Coalition government no longer holds a majority, and would require at least 51.1% of the two-party vote (at least a 0.7-point two-party swing) to regain it.

State of electorates

The following Mackerras pendulum lists seats in the House of Representatives according to the percentage-point margin they held on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2016 election results. This is also known as the swing required for a seat to change hands.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionClassifications-20499-NAT.htm Division Classifications], Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.

class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Government seats - 2016 (73)
Seat

| Member

| Party

| Margin

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Marginal
style="background:#cfc;"

| Capricornia (Qld)

| Michelle Landry

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.6

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Forde (Qld)

| Bert van Manen

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.6

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Gilmore (NSW)

| Ann Sudmalis

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.7

style="background:#cfc;"

| Flynn (Qld)

| Ken O'Dowd

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.0

colspan="4" | ^^^ Opposition wins majority on a uniform swing ^^^
style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Robertson (NSW)

| Lucy Wicks

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.1

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Banks (NSW)

| David Coleman

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.4

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Petrie (Qld)

| Luke Howarth

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.6

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Dickson (Qld)

| Peter Dutton

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.0

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Hasluck (WA)

| Ken Wyatt

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.1

style="background:#cfc;"

|Page (NSW)

|Kevin Hogan

|NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.3

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Boothby (SA)

| Nicolle Flint

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.8

style="background:#cfc;"

| Dawson (Qld)

| George Christensen

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.3

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Chisholm (Vic)

| style="background:#eee;"|Julia Banks (IND)

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.9

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Bonner (Qld)

| Ross Vasta

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.4

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| La Trobe (Vic)

| Jason Wood

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.5

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Pearce (WA)

| Christian Porter

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.6

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Swan (WA)

| Steve Irons

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.6

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Leichhardt (Qld)

| Warren Entsch

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.0

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Casey (Vic)

| Tony Smith

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.5

style="background:#cfc;"

| Cowper (NSW)

| Luke Hartsuyker

| NAT v IND

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.6

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Reid (NSW)

| Craig Laundy

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.7

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Sturt (SA)

| Christopher Pyne

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.8

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Brisbane (Qld)

| Trevor Evans

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.0

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Fairly safe
style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Stirling (WA)

| Michael Keenan

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.1

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Deakin (Vic)

| Michael Sukkar

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.1

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Canning (WA)

| Andrew Hastie

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.8

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Bowman (Qld)

| Andrew Laming

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.1

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Flinders (Vic)

| Greg Hunt

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.2

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Aston (Vic)

| Alan Tudge

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.6

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Menzies (Vic)

| Kevin Andrews

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.9

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Monash (Vic)

| Russell Broadbent

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.0

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Higgins (Vic)

| Kelly O'Dwyer

| LIB v GRN

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.0

style="background:#98fc98;"

| Wide Bay (Qld)

| Llew O'Brien

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.3

style="background:#98fc98;"

| Hinkler (Qld)

| Keith Pitt

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.4

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Grey (SA)

| Rowan Ramsey

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.5

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Ryan (Qld)

| Jane Prentice

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.8

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Fisher (Qld)

| Andrew Wallace

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.2

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Hughes (NSW)

| Craig Kelly

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.3

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Wannon (Vic)

| Dan Tehan

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.3

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Wright (Qld)

| Scott Buchholz

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.6

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Bennelong (NSW)

| John Alexander

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.7

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Safe
style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Hume (NSW)

| Angus Taylor

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.2

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Fairfax (Qld)

| Ted O'Brien

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.0

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Moore (WA)

| Ian Goodenough

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.0

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Durack (WA)

| Melissa Price

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.1

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Tangney (WA)

| Ben Morton

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.1

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Fadden (Qld)

| Stuart Robert

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.2

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Warringah (NSW)

| Tony Abbott

| LIB v GRN

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.6

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Lyne (NSW)

| David Gillespie

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.6

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| McPherson (Qld)

| Karen Andrews

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.6

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Calare (NSW)

| Andrew Gee

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.8

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Forrest (WA)

| Nola Marino

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.6

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Goldstein (Vic)

| Tim Wilson

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.7

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Kooyong (Vic)

| Josh Frydenberg

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.8

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| North Sydney (NSW)

| Trent Zimmerman

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.6

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Barker (SA)

| Tony Pasin

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 64.3

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Moncrieff (Qld)

| Steven Ciobo

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 64.5

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| O'Connor (WA)

| Rick Wilson

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.0

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Parkes (NSW)

| Mark Coulton

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.1

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Groom (Qld)

| John McVeigh

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.3

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Cook (NSW)

| Scott Morrison

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.4

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Mackellar (NSW)

| Jason Falinski

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.7

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Maranoa (Qld)

| David Littleproud

| LNP v ONP

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.9

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Berowra (NSW)

| Julian Leeser

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 66.4

style="background:#98ff44;"

| New England (NSW)

| Barnaby Joyce

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 66.4

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Riverina (NSW)

| Michael McCormack

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 66.4

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Mitchell (NSW)

| Alex Hawke

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.8

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Gippsland (Vic)

| Darren Chester

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 68.2

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Mallee (Vic)

| Andrew Broad

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 69.8

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Farrer (NSW)

| Sussan Ley

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 70.5

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Curtin (WA)

| Julie Bishop

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 70.7

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Bradfield (NSW)

| Paul Fletcher

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 71.0

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Nicholls (Vic)

| Damian Drum

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 72.3

class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Opposition seats - 2016 (72)
Seat

| Member

| Party

| Margin

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Marginal
style="background:#fdd;"

| Herbert (Qld)

| Cathy O'Toole

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.02

style="background:#fdd;"

| Corangamite (Vic)

| style="background:#a6e7ff;"| Sarah Henderson (LIB)

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.03

style="background:#fdd;"

| Cooper (Vic)

| Ged Kearney

| ALP v GRN

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.6

style="background:#fdd;"

| Cowan (WA)

| Anne Aly

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.7

colspan="4" | ^^^ Government regains majority on a uniform swing ^^^
style="background:#fdd;"

| Longman (Qld)

| Susan Lamb

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.8

style="background:#fdd;"

| Lindsay (NSW)

| Emma Husar

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.1

style="background:#fdd;"

| Dunkley (Vic)

| style="background:#a6e7ff;"|Chris Crewther (LIB){{ref label|a|a|a}}

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.3

style="background:#fdd;"

| Macnamara (Vic)

| Michael Danby

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.3

style="background:#fdd;"

| Griffith (Qld)

| Terri Butler

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.4

style="background:#fdd;"

| Braddon (Tas)

| Justine Keay

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.5

style="background:#fdd;"

| Macquarie (NSW)

| Susan Templeman

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.2

style="background:#fdd;"

| Isaacs (Vic)

| Mark Dreyfus

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.3

style="background:#fdd;"

| Eden-Monaro (NSW)

| Mike Kelly

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.9

style="background:#fdd;"

| Perth (WA)

| Patrick Gorman

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.3

style="background:#fdd;"

| Bendigo (Vic)

| Lisa Chesters

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.9

style="background:#fdd;"

| Lyons (Tas)

| Brian Mitchell

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.0

style="background:#fdd;"

| Moreton (Qld)

| Graham Perrett

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.0

style="background:#fdd;"

| Richmond (NSW)

| Justine Elliot

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.0

style="background:#fdd;"

| Hotham (Vic)

| Clare O'Neil

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.2

style="background:#fdd;"

| Dobell (NSW)

| Emma McBride

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.8

style="background:#fdd;"

| Wills (Vic)

| Peter Khalil

| ALP v GRN

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.9

style="background:#fdd;"

| Jagajaga (Vic)

| Jenny Macklin

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.0

style="background:#fdd;"

| Bass (Tas)

| Ross Hart

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.3

style="background:#fdd;"

| McEwen (Vic)

| Rob Mitchell

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.3

style="background:#fdd;"

| Lilley (Qld)

| Wayne Swan

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.8

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Fairly safe
style="background:#fcc;"

| Solomon (NT)

| Luke Gosling

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.1

style="background:#fcc;"

| Greenway (NSW)

| Michelle Rowland

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.3

style="background:#fcc;"

| Burt (WA)

| Matt Keogh

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.1

style="background:#fcc;"

| Ballarat (Vic)

| Catherine King

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.4

style="background:#fcc;"

| Fremantle (WA)

| Josh Wilson

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.5

style="background:#fcc;"

| Parramatta (NSW)

| Julie Owens

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.7

style="background:#fcc;"

| Blair (Qld)

| Shayne Neumann

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.0

style="background:#fcc;"

| Lingiari (NT)

| Warren Snowdon

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.1

style="background:#fcc;"

| Hindmarsh (SA)

| Steve Georganas

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.2

style="background:#fcc;"

| Werriwa (NSW)

| Anne Stanley

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.2

style="background:#fcc;"

| Barton (NSW)

| Linda Burney

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.3

style="background:#fcc;"

| Macarthur (NSW)

| Mike Freelander

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.3

style="background:#fcc;"

| Corio (Vic)

| Richard Marles

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.3

style="background:#fcc;"

| Kingsford Smith (NSW)

| Matt Thistlethwaite

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.6

style="background:#fcc;"

| Bean (ACT)

| Gai Brodtmann

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.9

style="background:#fcc;"

| Adelaide (SA)

| Kate Ellis

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.0

style="background:#fcc;"

| Oxley (Qld)

| Milton Dick

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.1

style="background:#fcc;"

| Maribyrnong (Vic)

| Bill Shorten

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.4

style="background:#fcc;"

| Shortland (NSW)

| Pat Conroy

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.9

style="background:#fcc;"

| Holt (Vic)

| Anthony Byrne

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.9

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Safe
style="background:#fbb;"

| Franklin (Tas)

| Julie Collins

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.7

style="background:#fbb;"

| Paterson (NSW)

| Meryl Swanson

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.7

style="background:#fbb;"

| Makin (SA)

| Tony Zappia

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.9

style="background:#fbb;"

| Rankin (Qld)

| Jim Chalmers

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.3

style="background:#fbb;"

| Brand (WA)

| Madeleine King

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.4

style="background:#fbb;"

| Fenner (ACT)

| Andrew Leigh

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.6

style="background:#fbb;"

| McMahon (NSW)

| Chris Bowen

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.1

style="background:#fbb;"

| Hunter (NSW)

| Joel Fitzgibbon

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.5

style="background:#fbb;"

| Canberra (ACT)

| new seat

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.2

style="background:#fbb;"

| Cunningham (NSW)

| Sharon Bird

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.3

style="background:#fbb;"

| Kingston (SA)

| Amanda Rishworth

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.5

style="background:#fbb;"

| Whitlam (NSW)

| Stephen Jones

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.7

style="background:#fbb;"

| Newcastle (NSW)

| Sharon Claydon

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.8

style="background:#fbb;"

| Lalor (Vic)

| Joanne Ryan

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 64.4

style="background:#fbb;"

| Gellibrand (Vic)

| Tim Watts

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 64.7

style="background:#fbb;"

| Sydney (NSW)

| Tanya Plibersek

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.3

style="background:#fbb;"

| Bruce (Vic)

| Julian Hill

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.7

style="background:#fbb;"

| Grayndler (NSW)

| Anthony Albanese

| ALP v GRN

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.8

style="background:#fbb;"

| Fowler (NSW)

| Chris Hayes

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.5

style="background:#fbb;"

| Watson (NSW)

| Tony Burke

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.6

style="background:#fbb;"

| Spence (SA)

| Nick Champion

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.9

style="background:#fbb;"

| Gorton (Vic)

| Brendan O'Connor

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 68.3

style="background:#fbb;"

| Chifley (NSW)

| Ed Husic

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 69.2

style="background:#fbb;"

| Blaxland (NSW)

| Jason Clare

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 69.5

style="background:#fbb;"

| Calwell (Vic)

| Maria Vamvakinou

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 70.1

style="background:#fbb;"

| Scullin (Vic)

| Andrew Giles

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 70.4

style="background:#fbb;"

| Fraser (Vic)

| New seat

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 70.6

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:gray;"|Crossbench seats - 2016 (6)
Seat

| Member

| Party

| Margin

style="background:#eee;"

| Wentworth (NSW)

| Kerryn Phelps

| IND

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.2 v LIB

style="background:#eee;"

| Indi (Vic)

| Cathy McGowan

| IND

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.1 v LIB

style="background:#fba978;"

| Mayo (SA)

| Rebekha Sharkie

| CA

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.5 v LIB

style="background:#fe6f5e;"

| Kennedy (Qld)

| Bob Katter

| KAP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.1 v LNP

style="background:#eee;"

| Clark (Tas)

| Andrew Wilkie

| IND

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.8 v ALP

style="background:#33ff88;"

| Melbourne (Vic)

| Adam Bandt

| GRN

| style="text-align:center;"| 69.0 v LIB

{{Clear}}

=Notes=

{{note label|a|a|a}} Although the seats of Corangamite and Dunkley were Liberal wins at the previous election, the redistribution in Victoria changed them to notionally marginal Labor seats.

{{note label|b|b|b}} Julia Banks won Chisholm as a Liberal candidate, and quit the Liberal party to sit as an Independent. She is not recontesting Chisholm, but she is instead contesting Flinders.

{{note label|c|c|c}} Bean entirely consists of area from the pre-redistribution Canberra and can be considered a renaming of the seat, while the post redistribution seat of Canberra contains approximately as many voters from pre-redistribution Fenner as Canberra, and can be considered a new seat.

References

{{reflist}}

External links

  • [https://www.aec.gov.au/media/national-seat-status.htm National seat status (Australian Electoral Commission)]

{{2019 Australian federal election}}

{{Australian Federal Election Pendulums}}

Category:Pendulums for Australian federal elections

Category:2019 Australian federal election