2024 YR4

{{Short description|Risk-listed near-Earth asteroid}}

{{Use dmy dates|date=December 2024}}

{{DISPLAYTITLE:{{mp|2024 YR|4}}}}

{{Infobox planet

| minorplanet = yes

| name = {{mp|2024 YR|4}}

| background = #FFC2E0

| image = 2024 YR4 ESO-VLT.gif

| image_size =

| caption = {{mp|2024 YR|4}} (centered) tracked by the Very Large Telescope in January 2025

| discovery_ref =

| discoverer = ATLAS–CHL (W68)

| discovery_site = Río Hurtado, Chile

| discovered = 27 December 2024

| mpc_name = {{mp|2024 YR|4}}

| alt_names =

| mp_category = {{hlist|NEO|Apollo|risk-listed}}

| orbit_ref = (JPL)

| epoch = 5 May 2025 (JD 2460800.5)

| uncertainty = 3

| observation_arc = 91 days

| earliest_precovery_date = 25 December 2024

| aphelion = {{val|4.180|ul=AU}}{{efn|name=MaxDist|1=Between 2025–2032, the farthest the asteroid will get from Earth will be on 7 November 2030 when the asteroid will be near aphelion on the opposite side of the Sun placing it [https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272030-11-07%27&STOP_TIME=%272030-11-08%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2719,20,39%27 5.17AU from Earth.]}}

| perihelion = {{plainlist|

  • {{val|0.8515|u=AU}}
  • {{val|0.8532|u=AU}} (2028)
  • {{val|0.8692|u=AU}} (2032)

}}

| time_periastron = {{plainlist|

  • 22 November 2024
  • 19 November 2028
  • 21 November 2032
  • mid-2036?{{efn|name=Chaos}}

}}

| semimajor = {{val|2.5159|u=AU}}

| eccentricity = {{val|0.6616}}

| period = {{val|3.991}} yr
({{val|1457.57}} days)

| mean_anomaly = {{val|40.40|ul=°}}

| mean_motion = {{val|0.2470|u=°}} per day

| inclination = {{val|3.4082|u=°}}

| asc_node = {{val|271.366|u=°}}

| arg_peri = {{val|134.361|u=°}}

| moid = {{Convert|0.00283|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| jupiter_moid = {{val|1.2716|u=AU}}

| physical_ref =

| mean_diameter = {{val|60|7|u=m}}

| rotation = {{cvt|0.32440 ± 0.00002|h|min}}

| pole_ecliptic_lat = ~ {{val|-25|u=°}}

| pole_ecliptic_lon = ~ {{val|42|u=°}}

| albedo =

| spectral_type = {{hlist|R-type or Sa-type}}{{hlist|S-type (most likely)|L-type|K-type}}

| abs_magnitude = {{plainlist|

  • {{val|24.05|0.15}} (phase corrected)
  • {{val|23.96|0.28}} (JPL)

}}

| magnitude = {{plainlist|

}}

}}

{{mp|2024 YR|4}} is an asteroid with an estimated diameter of {{convert|53|to|67|m|ft}} that is classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object. From 27 January to 20 February 2025, it had an impact rating of 3 on the Torino scale, reflecting its size and an estimated probability greater than 1% that it would impact Earth on 22 December 2032. The estimated impact probability peaked at 3.1% on 18 February 2025. By 23 February, additional observations effectively ruled out {{mp|2024 YR|4}} impacting Earth in 2032 and lowered its Torino rating to 0. {{as of|2025|04}}, it retains a roughly 4% chance of impacting the Moon on 22 December 2032 around 15:19 UTC.

The asteroid was discovered by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) at Río Hurtado on 27 December 2024. When additional observations increased its impact probability to greater than 1%, the first step in planetary defense responses was triggered, prompting additional data gathering using several major telescopes and leading United Nations–endorsed space agencies to begin planning asteroid threat mitigation.

The asteroid made a close approach to Earth at a distance of {{convert|828,800|km|mi LD|abbr=off}} on 25 December 2024, two days before its discovery, and it will be moving away from the Sun until November 2026. Its next close approach will take place on 17 December 2028. Analysis of spectral and photometric time series suggests that {{mp|2024 YR|4}} is a stony S-type (most likely), L-type or K-type asteroid, with a rotation period of approximately 19.5 minutes. A number of known asteroids, including other virtual impactors,{{efn|name=VI-definition|A virtual impactor is a known risk-listed asteroid with at least a 1-in-10-billion chance of impacting the Earth over the next 100 years.}} follow orbits somewhat consistent with that of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}.

Provisional designation

The asteroid's provisional designation as a minor planet, "{{mp|2024 YR|4}}", was assigned by the Minor Planet Center when its discovery was announced on 27 December 2024. "Y", the first letter after the discovery year, indicates that the asteroid was discovered in the second half-month of December (16 to 31 December), and "{{mp|R|4}}" indicates that it was the 117th provisional designation to be assigned in that half-month.

Physical characteristics

= Size and mass =

File:2024 YR4 size comparison.pngs (the 2009 Sulawesi superbolide, the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor, and the 1908 Tunguska impactor), with a Boeing 747 shown for scale]]

Measurements of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s mid-infrared thermal emission by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on 26 March 2025 indicate that it has a diameter of {{cvt|60|m|ft}}, with an uncertainty of {{cvt|7|m|ft}}. This makes {{mp|2024 YR|4}} around the same size as the asteroid that caused the 1908 Tunguska event or the iron–nickel asteroid that created the Meteor Crater in Arizona 50,000 years ago. {{mp|2024 YR|4}} is significantly smaller than Dimorphos, the impact target of NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in 2022.

Previous more uncertain estimates for {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s diameter were based on its brightness (absolute magnitude) using a range of plausible values for its surface reflectivity (geometric albedo). If {{mp|2024 YR|4}} reflects between 5% and 25% of visible light, as do the vast majority of asteroids with a measured albedo, then its diameter is between {{cvt|40|and|90|m|ft}}. An estimate by NASA for instance placed its diameter at {{cvt|55|m|ft}} by assuming a geometric albedo of 0.154.

The mass and density of {{mp|2024 YR|4}} have not been measured, but the mass can be loosely estimated with an assumed density and the estimated diameter. Assuming a density of {{cvt|2.6|g/cm3|oz/cuin}}, which is within the density range for stony asteroids such as 243 Ida,{{cite journal |display-authors=6 |last1=Belton |first1=M. J. S. |last2=Chapman |first2=C. R. |last3=Thomas |first3=P. C. |last4=Davies |first4=M. E. |last5=Greenberg |first5=R. |last6=Klaasen |first6=K. |last7=Byrnes |first7=D. |last8=D'Amario |first8=L. |last9=Synnott |first9=S. |last10=Johnson |first10=T. V. |last11=McEwen |first11=A. |last12=Merline |first12=W. J. |last13=Davis |first13=D. R. |last14=Petit |first14=J.-M. |last15=Storrs |first15=A. |last16=Veverka |first16=J. |last17=Zellner |first17=B. |year=1995 |title=Bulk density of asteroid 243 Ida from the orbit of its satellite Dactyl |journal=Nature |volume=374 |issue=6525 |pages=785–788 |doi=10.1038/374785a0|bibcode = 1995Natur.374..785B |s2cid=4333634 }} with an assumed diameter of {{cvt|55|m|ft}}, the Sentry risk table estimates a mass of {{cvt|2.2e8|kg}}. Both the assumed density and the inferred diameter contribute large uncertainties to the mass estimate.

= Composition, rotation, and shape =

Preliminary spectroscopic analysis from the Gran Telescopio Canarias and Lowell Discovery Telescope suggests that {{mp|2024 YR|4}} is either an S-type asteroid (17% of the asteroid population), an L-type asteroid, or a K-type asteroid, all of which point to a stony composition.{{efn|name=types|C-type asteroids are about 75% of the asteroid population, S-type asteroids are about 17%, and M-type asteroids (iron–nickel) are about 5%.}} Spectro-photometry by the Gemini South telescope in February 2025 suggest either an R or Sa spectral type for {{mp|2024 YR|4}}. JWST measurements of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s thermal emission suggest "a rockier surface than commonly inferred."

Photometric observations by the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and the La Silla Observatory's {{convert|1.54|m|ft|adj=on}} telescope indicate {{mp|2024 YR|4}} has a rotation period near 19.5 minutes. Observations by the Gemini South telescope from February 2025 found similar results for {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s rotation period. This is a relatively fast rotation period for an asteroid, although it is not fast enough to rule out a rubble pile structure for {{mp|2024 YR|4}}. The VLT has also observed {{mp|2024 YR|4}} at multiple phase angles from 5° to 35°, which would allow for the construction of a phase curve which can constrain the asteroid's surface properties.

The brightness of {{mp|2024 YR|4}} varies by 0.42 magnitudes as it rotates, indicating it has an elongated shape with its longest equatorial length being at least 1.4 times that of its shortest equatorial length. Gemini South telescope measurements of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s rotational light curve at various phase angles show that the asteroid has a retrograde rotation and a highly flattened shape with an equatorial diameter roughly 3 times as long as its polar diameter.

Orbit

As an Apollo-type near-Earth object, {{mp|2024 YR|4}} orbits the Sun on an elliptical orbit that crosses Earth's orbit. Since its close approach in December 2024, the asteroid has an orbital period of about {{convert|1458|days|years|order=flip}} and an orbital inclination of 3.41 degrees with respect to Earth's orbit (the ecliptic). The period, considered as an osculating element, dips slightly at the approach in December 2028 and then slowly rises to around {{convert|1463|days|years|order=flip}} by 2031.See [https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/api/horizons.api?format=text&COMMAND=%272024%20YR4%27&START_TIME=%272020/11/1%2012:0%27&STOP_TIME=%272034/5/4%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20month%27&MAKE_EPHEM=%27YES%27&EPHEM_TYPE=%27ELEMENTS%27&CSV_FORMAT=%27YES%27&OUT_UNITS=%27AU-D%27%27¢er=10 this JPL Horizons run]. Its orbit will be strongly perturbed at the close encounter of 2032, and the orbital period is expected to be reduced to approximately {{convert|1324|days|years|order=flip}} by April 2033. Astronomers Carlos and Raúl de la Fuente Marcos have proposed that {{mp|2024 YR|4}} could be related to a group of near-Earth asteroids on similar orbits that also have virtual impactors: {{mp|2017 UW|5}}, {{mp|2018 GG|4}}, 2019 SC, and {{mp|2020 MQ|61}}. The 2015 Porangaba meteor orbit has a 5% probability of matching that of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}.

Due to the Yarkovsky effect, {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s retrograde rotation causes its orbit to shrink over time. This indicates {{mp|2024 YR|4}} originated farther out in the Solar System, specifically the central main asteroid belt. {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s stony composition supports the possibility of an origin from the central main belt, since S-type and C-type asteroids are the most abundant spectral types in that region. The inward migration of {{mp|2024 YR|4}} from the main belt to near-Earth space was likely chaotic since the asteroid would have to cross multiple orbital resonances, such as the 3:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter's orbital period at 2.5 AU and the ν6 secular resonance with Saturn's orbital precession at 2.2 AU.

The asteroid reached perihelion (its closest approach to the Sun) on 22 November 2024, and made a close approach to Earth on 25 December 2024, two days before its discovery. During this encounter, {{mp|2024 YR|4}} passed 828,800 km ({{cvt|828800|km|mi|disp=out}}; {{convert|828800|km|LD|abbr=off|disp=out|lk=on}}) from Earth and then {{cvt|488300|km|mi LD|abbr=off}} from the Moon. The asteroid will make its next close approach to Earth on 17 December 2028, when it will pass {{cvt|8010000|±|60000|km|mi LD}} from Earth. The 2028 encounter will provide astronomers the opportunity to perform additional observations and extend the observation arc by four years. This will significantly improve calculations of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s orbit in preparation for its subsequent close approach on 22 December 2032.

Since the 2032 close approach is not yet well constrained enough to rule out a Moon impact, the resulting perturbation by the Earth–Moon system is highly uncertain, and all close approaches after 2032 are therefore not well constrained either. The 1 March 2025 position of the asteroid is known with a 3-sigma uncertainty in the asteroid's position of {{Nowrap|± 600 km.}} By mid-2034, the uncertainty in the position propagates to about {{convert|500|e6km|abbr=unit}}, or about three times the distance between Earth and the Sun. Since {{mp|2024 YR|4}} is expected to pass very close to the Moon in 2032, the post-2032 uncertainty will be even greater due to its trajectory being affected by gravitational focusing. The possible trajectories become more divergent with time and the greatest risk of an Earth impact is in December 2047. By December 2047, the uncertainty in the asteroid's position along its orbit is {{convert|9|e9km|AU|abbr=unit}} and wraps around the asteroid's orbit.{{efn|name=VI2047|1=On the virtual impactor date of 2047-Dec-22, the asteroid is expected to be 2AU from the Sun and 3AU from Earth. The uncertainty in the asteroid's position along its orbit is in the BILLIONS of kilometers. The asteroid could just as easily be [https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2024YR4&oc=500&y0=2047&m0=12&d0=22&h0=01&mi0=12&y1=2047&m1=12&d1=22&h1=01&mi1=12&ti=1.0&tiu=days 1AU from Earth] or [https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2024+YR4&year=2047-12-22&n_steps=1&stepsize=1#eph 5AU from Earth.]}}{{efn|name=circumference|The circumference of a circular orbit with a semi-major axis of 2.5 AU would be 2π(2.5 AU) ≈ 16 AU.}}

File:2024 YR4 orbit.jpg|Diagram of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s orbit

File:Animation of 2024 YR4 around Sun - 2032 close approach.gif|Animation of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s trajectory from 2028 to 2036 (with 2036 being highly uncertain){{efn|name=Chaos|1=By mid-2036 the uncertainty in the asteroid's position along its orbit is [https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272036-07-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272036-07-02%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2739%27 ± {{convert|3|e9km|AU|abbr=unit}}.]}}
{{hlist|{{legend2|magenta|2024 YR4}}|{{legend2|Yellow|Sun}}|{{legend2|Cyan|Mercury}}|{{legend2|Gold|Venus}}|{{legend2|RoyalBlue|Earth}}|{{legend2|OrangeRed|Mars}}}}

File:Animation of 2024 YR4 around Earth - 2032 close approach.gif|Animation of {{mp|2024 YR|4}} around the Earth showing its 2032 close approach
{{legend2|magenta|2024 YR4}}{{·}}{{legend2| Gold|Moon}}{{·}}{{legend2| RoyalBlue |Earth}}{{·}}

2032 close approach

On 22 December 2032, {{mp|2024 YR|4}} will come closest to Earth sometime between 07:00 and 10:30 UTC,{{efn|name=CAtime|1=According to JPL solution #76, the nominal close approach will occur at 8:46 TDB, with a 3-sigma uncertainty of 1 h 44 min. Barycentric Dynamical Time (TDB) is approximately 69 seconds ahead of Coordinated Universal Time.}}{{efn|name=ESA-CA|1=ESA lists a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 2.4 hours [https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=closeapp&des=2024YR4 (1-sigma = 48 min)] for the 2032 Earth closest approach time.}} approaching from the direction of Sagittarius.From RA 19h, declination −12°; see [https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/api/horizons.api?format=text&COMMAND=%272024%20YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032/12/1%2012:0%27&STOP_TIME=%272032/12/24%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%271,29%27 this Horizons simulation]. The nominal (best-fit) closest approach to Earth on 22 December 2032 is at 08:46 UTC (with an uncertainty of about 1.7 hours in the closest-approach time), at a distance of {{cvt|260000|km|mi}}, with a 3-sigma uncertainty of {{cvt|83000|km|mi}}. The nominal closest approach to the Moon occurs at 15:18 UTC, with a nominal distance of about {{cvt|3100|km|mi}}.

File:202r-YR4-Monte-Carlo-Animation.gif

Due to {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s size and previously greater-than-1% impact probability, it reached a rating of 3 on the Torino scale on 27 January 2025, which prompted the International Asteroid Warning Network to issue a notice on 29 January 2025. This was the second-highest Torino rating ever reached by an asteroid, behind the larger 99942 Apophis which briefly reached a rating of 4 in late 2004. NASA's Sentry gave {{mp|2024 YR|4}} a rating on the Palermo scale as high as {{val|-0.18}} on 18 February 2025, when it had a 55-day observation arc and a 3.1% chance of impacting the Earth in 2032. This gave {{mp|2024 YR|4}} a corresponding impact hazard of 66% of the background hazard level, given the asteroid's relatively small size of {{convert|60|m}}.{{efn|name=large|1=The largest potentially hazardous asteroid discovered in 2024 is {{mp|2024 YU|4}}, with an assumed diameter near {{cvt|500|m}}. The near-Earth asteroid [https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?sum=1&des=2024YK11 2024 YK11] (H=17.6) is around {{cvt|1|km}} in diameter assuming a generic albedo of 0.15.}} The asteroid approached but never exceeded the background risk of a random asteroid of the same size impacting Earth by 2032, which by definition corresponds to a Palermo rating of 0. On 18 February 2025, the European Space Agency's Aegis listed a 2.8% chance of an Earth impact in 2032. On 23 February 2025 (with a 60-day observation arc), {{mp|2024 YR|4}} was reduced to a Torino rating of 0.

On 2 April 2025, with a 91-day observation arc, NASA removed the chance of a 2032 Earth impact. The European Space Agency removed the chance of a 2032 impact on 8 March 2025. NEODyS removed the chance of a 2032 impact on 1 March 2025.

{{anchor|VI}}

class="wikitable"

|+JPL #77 nominal distance for the 22 December 2032 14:02 UT Virtual Impactor Scenario

! JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)

! uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)

| {{Convert|0.0024|AU|km LD|abbr=unit|lk=on}}{{Nowrap|± 120 thousand km}}{{efn|name=Sigma3}}{{efn|name=larger|The uncertainty region is larger at the 14:02 UT Virtual Impactor Scenario because it is about 5 hours after the nominal (best-fit) Earth approach.}}

{{Collapse top|Evolution of nominal Earth close-approach estimates for 22 December 2032}}

class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center; font-size: 90%;"

! Solution

! Observation
arc

(in days)

! JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)

! uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)

! Impact
probability

! Torino
scale

! Palermo
scale

(max)

2024 Dec 302 (53 obs)1:1040 (0.096%)1−1.73
2024 Dec 313 (71 obs)1:920 (0.11%)1−1.66
2025 Jan 14 (87 obs)1:870 (0.11%)1−1.64
2025 Jan 26 (109 obs)1:842 (0.12%)1−1.63
2025 Jan 37 (120 obs)1:760 (0.13%)1−1.61
JPL #14

2025 Jan 6

8 (145 obs){{Convert|0.01706|AU|e6km LD|abbr=unit|lk=on}}{{Nowrap|± 9.62 million km}}1:730 (0.14%)1
JPL #15

2025 Jan 6

11 (158 obs){{Convert|0.01537|AU|e6km LD|abbr=unit}}{{Nowrap|± 9.55 million km}}1:710 (0.14%)1−1.53
2025 Jan 1114 (170 obs)1:630 (0.16%)1−1.53
JPL #27

2025 Jan 20

26 (198 obs)1:320 (0.31%)1
[https://web.archive.org/web/20250125002830/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20YR4&view=OPC JPL #30]

2025 Jan 22

28 (213 obs){{Convert|0.00068|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=JPL30|JPL #30 with a 28-day observation arc had an uncertainty of almost ± 3 days for the Earth close approach date in 2032.}}{{Nowrap|± 3.37 million km}}1:190 (0.52%)1−0.93
JPL #32

2025 Jan 23

29 (219 obs){{Convert|0.00171|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=JPL32|JPL #32 The nominal orbit is 1,129 km from the center of the Moon, which is 65% of the Moon's radius of 1,737 km.}}{{Nowrap|± 2.28 million km}}1:110 (0.91%)1−0.69
JPL #34

2025 Jan 24

30 (227 obs){{Convert|0.00113|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{Nowrap|± 1.96 million km}}1:110 (0.91%)1−0.69
id=Torino3

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250128174614/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20YR4 JPL #35]

2025 Jan 27

|33 (238 obs)

| 0.00004564 AU (6,829 km; 0.01776 LD){{efn|name=JPL35|JPL #35: The nominal 14:17 UT Earth approach is 6829 km (1.07 R🜨) and Earth has a radius of 6378 km.}}

|± 1.605 million km

|1:83 (1.2%)

|3

| −0.57

JPL #36

2025 Jan 28

|34 (245 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00071|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 1.55 million km

|1:83 (1.2%)

|[https://archive.today/20250128161817/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 3]

| −0.56

JPL #37

2025 Jan 29

|35 (257 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00085|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 1.408 million km

|1:77 (1.3%)

|3

| −0.53

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250130215611/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20YR4 JPL #39]

2025 Jan 30

|36 (261 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00087|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 1.408 million km

|1:77 (1.3%)

|3

| −0.53

JPL #40

2025 Jan 31

|37 (276 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00046|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 1.2 million km

|1:63 (1.6%)

|3

| −0.47

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250202080352/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2012:58:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #41]

2025 Feb 1

|38 (284 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00037|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 1.119 million km

|1:59 (1.7%)

|3

| −0.43

JPL #42

2025 Feb 2

|39 (289 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00185|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 1.049 million km

|1:71 (1.4%)

|3

| −0.52

JPL #43

2025 Feb 3

|40 (292 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00165|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 998,000 km

|1:67 (1.5%)

|3

| −0.49

JPL #44

2025 Feb 4

|41 (294 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00151|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 981,000 km

|1:63 (1.6%)

|3

| −0.46

JPL #45

2025 Feb 5

|42 (307 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00116|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 892,000 km

|1:53 (1.9%)

|3

| −0.40

JPL #46

2025 Feb 6

|43 (315 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00059|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 819,000 km

|1:43 (2.3%)

|3

| −0.31

JPL #47

2025 Feb 7

|43 (325 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00080|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 792,000 km

|1:45 (2.2%)

|3

| −0.32

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250209081429/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2012:13:35%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #48]

2025 Feb 8

|44 (336 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00061|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 764,000 km

|[https://archive.today/20250209053120/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:42 (2.4%)]

|3

| −0.29

JPL #49

2025 Feb 9

|45 (343 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00105|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 739,000 km

|1:45 (2.2%)

|3

| −0.34

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250211165909/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:39%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:40%27&STEP_SIZE=%2712%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #50]

2025 Feb 10

|45 (347 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00112|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=Full Moon|2024 YR4 could not be observed at that time because of proximity to the full moon}}

|± 712,000 km

| 1:48 (2.1%)

|3

| −0.34

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250212175144/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:36%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:37%27&STEP_SIZE=%2712%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #51]

2025 Feb 12

|45 (348 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00114|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=Full Moon}}

|± 712,000 km

| 1:48 (2.1%)

|3

| −0.35

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250213182146/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:40:20%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:40:30%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #53]

2025 Feb 13

|45 (346 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00112|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=Full Moon}}

|± 712,000 km

| 1:48 (2.1%)

|3

| −0.34

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250214164133/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:52:40%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:52:50%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #54]

2025 Feb 14

|45 (354 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00105|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=Full Moon}}

|± 707,000 km

| 1:45 (2.2%)

|3

| −0.33

JPL #55

2025 Feb 15

|45 (363 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00105|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=Full Moon}}

|± 707,000 km

| 1:45 (2.2%)

|3

| −0.33

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250217160251/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2011:03:45%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2011:03:55%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #56]

2025 Feb 17

|54 (368 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00099|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 481,000 km

| [https://archive.today/20250217180737/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:38 (2.6%)]

|3

| −0.25

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250218145247/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2011:35:35%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2011:35:45%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #57]

2025 Feb 18

|55 (370 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00082|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 458,000 km

|[https://archive.today/20250218172516/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:32 (3.1%)]

|3

| −0.18

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250219155749/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2009:37:35%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2009:37:45%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #58]

2025 Feb 19

|56 (378 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00145|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 356,000 km{{efn|name=Sigma1|A 1-sigma value for JPL Horizons uncertainty region would not overlap Earth's position.}}

| 1:95 (1.06%)

|3

| −0.66

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250219195207/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:01:02%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2010:01:12%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #59]

2025 Feb 19

|56 (376 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00133|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 379,000 km{{efn|name=Sigma1}}

| [https://archive.today/20250219194903/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:67 (1.5%)]{{efn|name=SigmaVI|On 19 February 2025, the Sigma VI value increased from 0.8 to 1.6 meaning the nominal orbit became a poorer match for the impacting orbit. On 28 January 2025, Sigma VI was 0.2.}}

|3

| −0.51

id=Torino1

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250220162243/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2009:07:12%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2009:07:22%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #60]

2025 Feb 20

|57 (391 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00161|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 291,000 km

| [https://archive.today/20250220172459/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:370 (0.27%)]{{efn|name=SigmaVI2|On 20 February 2025, the Sigma VI value increased from 1.6 to 2.5.}}

| 1

| −1.23

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250221160535/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2009:23:00%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2009:23:10%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #61]

2025 Feb 21

|58 (392 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00153|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 287,000 km

| [https://archive.today/20250221161136/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:280 (0.36%)]

|1

| −1.11

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250223134337/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2009:33:28%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2009:33:38%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #62]

2025 Feb 22

|59 (404 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00147|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 275,000 km

| 1:280 (0.36%)

|1

| −1.11

id=Torino0

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250223175953/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:34:00%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:34:10%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #63]

2025 Feb 23

|60 (418 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00179|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 207,000 km{{efn|name=Sigma3|The 3-sigma value for JPL Horizons uncertainty region would not overlap Earth's position.}}

| [https://archive.today/20250223181514/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND='2024+YR4'&START_TIME='2032-12-22%2008:34:00'&STOP_TIME='2032-12-22%2008:34:10'&STEP_SIZE='20'&QUANTITIES='20,39' 1:26,000 (0.004%)]{{efn|name=SigmaVI3|On 23 February 2025, the Sigma VI value increased to 3.96.}}

|0

| −3.08

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250224180827/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:28:54%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:29:04%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #64]

2025 Feb 24

|61 (424 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00182|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 199,000 km

| [https://archive.today/20250224171320/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:59,000 (0.002%)]

|0

| −3.45

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250226171418/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:31:55%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:32:05%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #66]

2025 Feb 26

|63 (428 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00180|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 193,000 km

|1:91,000 (0.001%)

|0

| −3.61

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250227185036/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:31:47%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:31:57%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #67]

2025 Feb 27

|63 (440 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00180|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 192,000 km

|1:91,000 (0.001%)

|0

| −3.61

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250228173508/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:25:36%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:25:46%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #68]

2025 Feb 28

|65 (441 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00183|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 192,000 km

|1:130,000 (0.00076%)

|0

| −3.78

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250301204734/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:27:51%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:28:01%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #69]

2025 Mar 01

|66 (442 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00182|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 191,000 km

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250301231757/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4 1:120,000 (0.00082%)]

|0

| −3.75

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250307152709/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:31:50%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:32:00%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #70]

2025 Mar 07

|71 (444 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00180|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 176,000 km

|[https://archive.today/20250307163736/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:500,000 (0.0002%)]{{efn|name=JPL70|As of JPL #70 on 7 March 2025, the impact risk in 2047 is now technically greater with a palermo rating of −4.3 and a 1-in-150,000 risk of impact.}}

|0

|−4.36

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250308173342/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:38:15%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:38:25%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #71]

2025 Mar 08

|71 (452 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00177|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± 167,000 km

|1:910,000 (0.0001%)

|0

|−4.61

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250311164927/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:43:58%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:44:08%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #72]

2025 Mar 11

|71 (453 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00174|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 159,000 km

|1:1,800,000 (0.000055%)

|0

|−4.93

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250313165932/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:41:19%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:41:29%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #73]

2025 Mar 13

|71 (460 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00175|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 154,000 km

|[https://archive.today/20250313175336/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 1:5,000,000 (0.000020%)]{{efn|name=SigmaVI5|On 13 March 2025, the Sigma VI value increased to 5.2.}}

|0

|−5.37

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250319014519/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:41:13%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:41:23%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #74]

2025 Mar 18

|71 (460 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00175|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 154,000 km

|1:5,300,000 (0.000019%)

|0

|−5.38

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250401181139/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:47:01%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:47:11%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #75]

2025 Apr 1

|88 (462 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00172|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 118,000 km{{efn|name=Apophis|Asteroid Apophis has a similar uncertainty region of ±130 thousand km in March 2036, but Apophis will securely be 46 million km from Earth during the 2036 approach.}}

|

|0

|

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250402185730/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:44:22%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:44:32%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #76]

2025 April 2

|91 (473 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00174|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 82,600 km

|[https://archive.today/20250402183613/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4 not applicable]

|not applicable

|not applicable

[https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:44:19%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2008:44:29%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 JPL #77]

2025 April 3

|91 (476 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00174|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

|± 82,600 km

|

|

|

{{Collapse bottom}}

= Potential impact effects =

File:2024 YR4 risk corridor.png

The risk corridor of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s possible impact locations in 2032, estimated from existing observations as of late January 2025, began from the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, ran through northern South America, the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, Nigeria, central Africa, the north of eastern Africa, the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula, the northwestern Indian Ocean, India, and ended in Bangladesh. Using NASA's estimated diameter, mass, and density for {{mp|2024 YR|4}}, the asteroid would have released energy equivalent to {{convert|7.7|MtTNT|PJ|abbr=off|lk=in|sigfig=3}} if it had been to impact Earth at its predicted velocity at atmospheric entry of {{cvt|17.20|km/s|mi/s}}, equivalent to about 500 times the energy released by Little Boy (the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima), two and a half times of Grapple Y, 50% of Castle Bravo, or 15% of Tsar Bomba.{{citation needed|date=February 2025|reason=Estimates for the yield of those nuclear bombs vary. A source is needed that indicates a. that these are valid comparisons, and b. what estimates have been used for their yield.}}

Due to its stony composition, this would have more likely produced a meteor air burst than an impact crater (for an impact on land) or tsunami (for an oceanic impact). It could have caused damage as far as {{cvt|50|km|mi|sigfig=1}} from the impact site. Despite its potential to cause damage if it were to impact, {{mp|2024 YR|4}} is not categorized as a potentially hazardous object (PHO) because it has an absolute magnitude dimmer than 22, which usually means that such an asteroid is less than {{cvt|140|m|ft}} in diameter and its potential damage therefore would be localized.

= Possible impact on the Moon =

File:2024 yr4 lunar impact probability.png

Using observations through 26 March 2025, {{mp|2024 YR|4}} has around a 4% chance of impacting a 70% waning gibbous moon on 22 December 2032 around 15:17 to 15:21 UTC. The nominal approach to the Moon is near the impact scenario at around 15:18 UTC ± 1.5 hours at a distance of {{cvt|3100|km|mi LD|abbr=off}} from the center of the Moon, or about 1,400 km above the 1,737 km radius of the Moon, with a 3-sigma uncertainty of {{cvt|83000|km|mi}}.

{{anchor|moon}}

class="wikitable"

|+JPL #77 nominal distance from the Moon at 22{{Nbsp}}December 2032 15:17–15:21 UT Moon Impact Scenario

! JPL Horizons
nominal lunar
distance (AU)

! uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)

| {{Convert|0.000024|AU|km LD|abbr=unit|lk=on}}{{Nowrap|± 110 thousand km}}

The impact could create an impact crater with a diameter of {{convert|500|to|2000|m|mi}} wide on the lunar surface, releasing about {{convert|5.2|MtTNT|PJ|abbr=off|sigfig=3}} of energy if it were to impact the Moon at an estimated velocity of {{cvt|13.9|km/s}}, an explosion about 340 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The impact corridor is a line that extends through the southern parts of Mare Humorum and Mare Nubium.{{dubious|date=March 2025}}

Michael Busch of the SETI Institute notes that an explosion on the Moon "would be very obvious to any spacecraft observing from lunar orbit" but may not be as visible to the unaided eye from Earth due to the Moon's brightness. However, other astronomers believe the impact could be visible from Earth. Gareth Collins suggested that "the impact flash of vaporized rock would be visible from Earth, even in the daytime", while Daniel Bamberger of the Northolt Branch Observatories in London stated that the impact "could be brighter than the full moon" making it clearly visible to the naked eye.{{cite web |last1=Dewan |first1=Pandora |title='City-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon instead of us, scientists say |url=https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say |website=Space.com |date=16 February 2025 |access-date=17 February 2025 |archive-date=16 February 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250216181041/https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say |url-status=live }}{{Cite web |last=Andrews |first=Robin George |date=10 February 2025 |title=There's a tiny chance the asteroid headed for Earth could hit the moon |url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/2467730-theres-a-tiny-chance-the-asteroid-headed-for-earth-could-hit-the-moon/ |access-date=17 February 2025 |website=NewScientist}}

{{Collapse top|Evolution of nominal lunar close approach estimates for 2032}}

class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center; font-size: 90%;"

! Solution

! Observation
arc

(in days)

! JPL Horizons
nominal lunar
distance (AU)

! uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)

id=JPL30

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250125002830/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20YR4&view=OPC JPL #30]

2025 Jan 22

|28 (213 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00114|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|3300000}} km

id=JPL32

|JPL #32

2025 Jan 23

|29 (219 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00000754|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=JPL32}}

| ± {{val|2200000}} km

id=JPL63

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250224003137/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:07:43%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:07:53%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #63]

2025 Feb 23

|60 (418 obs)

| {{Convert|0.0000786|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|220000}} km

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250224180425/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:03:17%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:03:27%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #64]

2025 Feb 24

|61 (424 obs)

| {{Convert|0.000107|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=JPL64|JPL #64 The minimum possible Moon distance is 1,013 km, which is 58% of Moon's radius of 1,737 km.}}

| ± {{val|212000}} km

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250226170821/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:05:56%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:06:06%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #66]

2025 Feb 26

|63 (428 obs)

| {{Convert|0.0000902|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|205000}} km

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250227190719/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:05:48%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:05:58%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #67]

2025 Feb 27

|63 (440 obs)

| {{Convert|0.0000910|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|205000}} km

[https://web.archive.org/web/20250228174236/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:00:24%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:00:34%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #68]

2025 Feb 28

|65 (441 obs)

| {{Convert|0.000126|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|205000}} km

id=JPL69

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250301204849/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:02:22%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:02:32%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #69]

2025 Mar 01

|66 (442 obs)

| {{Convert|0.000113|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|204000}} km

id=JPL70

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250307150819/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:05:51%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:06:01%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #70]

2025 Mar 07

|71 (444 obs)

| {{Convert|0.000091|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|187000}} km

id=JPL71

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250308172924/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:11:27%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:11:37%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #71]

2025 Mar 08

|71 (452 obs)

| {{Convert|0.000054|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|178000}} km

id=JPL72

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250311163420/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:16:25%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:16:35%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #72]

2025 Mar 11

|71 (453 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00002256|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|162000}} km

id=JPL73

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250313165357/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:14:07%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:14:17%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #73]

2025 Mar 13

|71 (460 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00003719|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|162000}} km

id=JPL74

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250319014255/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:14:02%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:14:12%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #74]

2025 Mar 18

|71 (460 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00003772|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|162000}} km

id=JPL75

|[https://web.archive.org/web/20250401173843/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:19:04%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:19:14%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #75]

2025 Apr 1

|88 (462 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00000798|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}{{efn|name=JPL75|1=JPL #75 The nominal orbit is [https://web.archive.org/web/20250401195619/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024YR4&view=OPC 1,195 km from the center of the Moon], which is 69% of the Moon's radius of 1,737 km.}}

| ± {{val|66000}} km

id=JPL76

| [https://web.archive.org/web/20250402182217/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:16:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:16:56%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #76]

2025 Apr 2

|91 (473 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00002044|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|83000}} km

id=JPL77

|[https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:16:44%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:16:54%27&STEP_SIZE=%2720%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27 JPL #77]

2025 Apr 3

|91 (476 obs)

| {{Convert|0.00002067|AU|km LD|abbr=unit}}

| ± {{val|83000}} km

{{Collapse bottom}}

Observation opportunities

= 2025 =

File:2024 YR4 JWST NIRCam F150W 2025-03-08.png

Additional observations of {{mp|2024 YR|4}} will reduce uncertainties in its trajectory. Because the asteroid is currently moving away from Earth, it is becoming fainter, necessitating the use of larger-aperture telescopes such as the 10-meter Keck telescope and the Very Large Telescope. As of 14 March 2025 the asteroid had reached apparent magnitude 26, which is 63 million times fainter than what can be observed with the naked eye.{{efn|name=naked|1=Math: 2.512(26 − 6.5) = {{val|63151385}}}} As of the last ground−based observation on 23 March 2025 by Paranal Observatory, the asteroid was 1.8 AU from the Sun which is just beyond the orbit of Mars. The asteroid was not observed between 11–13{{Nbsp}}January and 8–15{{Nbsp}}February 2025 due to interference from moonlight. After mid-February, a 2-meter telescope or better was required. After 4{{Nbsp}}March 2025, a 4-meter or better class telescope became required. After 1{{Nbsp}}April, an 8-meter or larger was required. Space-based infrared telescopes such as the JWST can observe {{mp|2024 YR|4}} at farther distances until mid-May. The JWST observed {{mp|2024 YR|4}} on 8{{Nbsp}}March, when the position of the asteroid first became compatible with the pointing restrictions of the telescope, then 26 March, and will observe it a final time on 11{{Nbsp}}May 2025. JWST has used its NIRCam and Mid-Infrared Instrument to measure {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s position, infrared thermal emission, and size. NEOWISE burned up in Earth's atmosphere in November 2024,{{cite web |title=WISE/NEOWISE |date=5 December 2017 |url=https://science.nasa.gov/mission/neowise |publisher=NASA |access-date=9 November 2024 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20241109091848/https://science.nasa.gov/mission/neowise |archive-date=9 November 2024}} and therefore was not available to take infrared measurements of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}'s size.

= Precovery =

The orbital uncertainty of {{mp|2024 YR|4}} may be further reduced with precovery observations, in which the asteroid would be detected in archival telescope images taken before its discovery. The earliest known precovery observation of {{mp|2024 YR|4}} was by ATLAS on 25{{Nbsp}}December 2024, but this is just two days before its discovery and the measured position of the asteroid in that observation is also more uncertain than in later observations, due to the rapid motion of the asteroid and a longer exposure than would have been optimal for observations of such a fast-moving asteroid.{{efn|1=The 25 December 2024 observation has a high RMS of 1.6{{Nbsp}}arcseconds in right ascension and 0.7{{Nbsp}}arcseconds in declination.}} The asteroid passed within 12{{Nbsp}}million km of Earth in September 2016 and within 20{{Nbsp}}million km of Earth in October 2020. A search through 2016 Subaru Telescope archival images did not find {{mp|2024 YR|4}} in a region where it might have been.

Astronomers of the Catalina Sky Survey have inspected a set of images from Mount Lemmon Survey, including images containing the virtual impactor's predicted location; however, no candidates were found. Astronomers of the Pan-STARRS survey identified a few images in 2012, 2016 and 2020, again with no candidates found, alongside images from 2012 and 2020 which did not have a sufficiently deep limiting magnitude to detect 2024 YR4 at its predicted magnitude on those dates. Paolo Tanga checked for possible detections by the Gaia spacecraft, but concluded that {{mp|2024 YR|4}} never came within the spacecraft's field of view. James Bauer checked the NEOWISE data, Deborah Woods checked Space Surveillance Telescope data, and Julien de{{Nbsp}}Wit searched data from TESS and other exoplanet surveys; none of these searches found detections of {{mp|2024 YR|4}}.

= Stellar occultation =

A positive occultation detection would make possible measurements of the size and shape of the asteroid and more precise measurements of its position. {{as of|2025|2|11|post=,}} no positive stellar occultation had been reported. A 6{{Nbsp}}February occultation had its path very close to the ConnecticutRhode Island border, and no occultation results have been reported so far. An 8{{Nbsp}}February occultation passed Xiamen, China; Chenyang Guo reported negative results from two locations.{{Cite web |url= https://groups.io/g/IOTAoccultations/topic/111125999#msg81657 |title=[Planoccult] Re: [IOTAoccultations] 2024 YR4 occultation on Feb 6 and later |access-date=12 February 2025 |archive-date=17 February 2025 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20250217042908/https://groups.io/g/IOTAoccultations/topic/111125999#msg81657 |url-status=live }} The uncertainty range for the path of both occultations on Earth was a few kilometers wide, and while Fresnel diffraction broadens the penumbra to slightly more than twice the diameter of the asteroid—to {{cvt|100 and 140|m|ft}}—an uncertainty of a few kilometers is still too wide compared to this penumbra to efficiently place movable observing stations across the path.

= 2028 =

Observations of the asteroid when it passes near Earth again in 2028 will enable the calculation of a very precise orbit and a much refined estimation of the Moon impact likelihood in 2032 as it will extend the observation arc by four years. The asteroid will be too faint for observation until June 2028. It will be about magnitude 25 when it comes to opposition on 19{{Nbsp}}July 2028 at an Earth distance of {{Convert|0.78|AU|e6km|abbr=unit}} but it will continue to get closer until December 17 when it will pass about {{Convert|20.8|LD|e6km e6mi|abbr=unit}} from Earth.

Defense

Had the observations not ruled out a 2032 Earth impact with a 5-sigma confidence, an asteroid deflection mission similar to DART might have been sent to {{mp|2024 YR|4}} to avert its impact. However, mounting such a mission with less than eight years to design and construct a spacecraft would have been challenging. A mission could be prepared before the 2028 close encounter so that it would be ready to launch if it is determined that an impact is likely. Alternatively, if deflection is unfeasible and the predicted site of impact is on or close to a continent, it could be evacuated.

See also

Notes

{{notelist}}

References

{{reflist|refs=

{{cite web

|type = 2025-03-26 last obs. (91 days with 476 obs)

|title = JPL Small-Body Database Lookup: (2024 YR4)

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20YR4

|publisher = Jet Propulsion Laboratory

|access-date = 3 April 2025

|archive-date = 22 January 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250122110828/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20YR4&view=OPC

|url-status = live}}(See archive for JPL #30 solution)

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4

|url = https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2024+YR4

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250217140556/https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2024+YR4

|archive-date= 17 February 2025

|publisher = Minor Planet Center

|access-date = 3 April 2025}} (91 days with 499 obs)

{{cite web

|title = New- And Old-Style Minor Planet Designations

|url = https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/info/DesDoc.html

|publisher = Minor Planet Center

|access-date = 9 February 2025

|archive-date = 6 May 2021

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20210506221829/https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/info/DesDoc.html

|url-status = live

}}

{{cite journal

|title = Mpec 2024-Y140 : 2024 Yr4

|url = https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K24/K24YE0.html

|author = Minor Planet Center Staff

|journal = Minor Planet Electronic Circular

|publisher = Minor Planet Center

|doi = 10.48377/MPEC/2024-Y140

|bibcode = 2024MPEC....Y..140D

|volume = 2024-Y140

|date = 27 December 2024

|access-date = 27 January 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = Sentry API Version 2.0

|url = https://ssd-api.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/sentry.html

|work = Jet Propulsion Laboratory

|publisher = NASA

|date = July 2021

|access-date = 9 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20211028040542/https://ssd-api.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/sentry.html

|archive-date = 28 October 2021

|url-status = live

|quote = mass: This estimate assumes a uniform spherical body with the computed diameter and a mass density of 2.6 g/cm3. The mass estimate is somewhat more rough than the diameter estimate, but generally will be accurate to within a factor of three.}}

{{cite web

|title = (2024 YR4) – Earth Impact Risk Summary

|url = https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4

|work = Center for Near-Earth Object Studies

|publisher = NASA

|date = 13 March 2025

|access-date = 13 March 2025

|archive-url = https://archive.today/20250218172516/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2024%20YR4

|archive-date = 18 February 2025

|url-status = live}} (−0.18 in archive)

{{cite web

|title = 2024YR4

|url = https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=possimp&des=2024YR4

|work = Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre

|publisher = European Space Agency

|date = 1 April 2025

|access-date = 1 April 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250309063342/https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=possimp&des=2024YR4

|archive-date = 9 March 2025

|url-status = live}} (88 days with 489 obs)

{{cite web

|title = 2024YR4 Impactor Table

|url = https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.2&n=2024%20YR4

|work = NEODyS-2

|publisher = University of Pisa

|date = 1 April 2025

|access-date = 1 April 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250305100700/https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.2&n=2024%20YR4

|archive-date = 5 March 2025

|url-status = live }} (91 days with 529 obs)

{{cite web

|title = 2024YR4 Observational Details

|url = https://newton.spacedys.com/~neodys2/mpcobs/2024YR4.rwo

|work = NEODyS-2

|publisher = University of Pisa

|access-date = 30 January 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = Asteroid 2024 YR4 has non-zero odds of hitting Earth

|url = https://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-hit-earth-torino-scale-2032/

|first = Kelly Kizer

|last = Whitt

|work = EarthSky

|date = 27 January 2025

|access-date = 27 January 2025

|archive-date = 28 January 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250128000450/https://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-hit-earth-torino-scale-2032/

|url-status = live}}

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4: Torino scale 3, negative observations, 3–6% impact?

|url = https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/2024_yr4_torino_scale_3/110849089

|first = Sam |last = Deen

|work = Minor Planets Mailing List

|date = 27 January 2025

|access-date = 27 January 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = Newly Discovered Asteroid Has Slight Chance of Earth Impact in 2032

|url = https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/newly-discovered-asteroid-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/

|first = David L.

|last = Chandler

|website = skyandtelescope.org

|date = 28 January 2025

|access-date = 28 January 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

|url = https://www.space.com/180-foot-asteroid-1-in-83-chance-hitting-Earth-2032

|first = Robert

|last = Lea

|work = Space.com

|date = 28 January 2025

|access-date = 28 January 2025

|archive-date = 28 January 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250128000450/https://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-hit-earth-torino-scale-2032/

|url-status = live}}

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4

|url = https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/index.shtml

|publisher = International Asteroid Warning Network

|date = 29 January 2025

|access-date = 29 January 2025

|archive-date = 30 January 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250130015105/https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/index.shtml

|url-status = live}}

{{cite web

|title = International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) Potential Asteroid Impact Notification

|url = https://iawn.net//documents/NOTIFICATIONS/IAWN_Potential_Impact_Notification_2024_YR4.pdf

|publisher = International Asteroid Warning Network

|date = 29 January 2025

|access-date = 29 January 2025

|archive-date = 30 January 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250130100841/https://iawn.net//documents/NOTIFICATIONS/IAWN_Potential_Impact_Notification_2024_YR4.pdf

|url-status = dead}}

{{cite web

|title = 'Prepublished' periods of asteroids

|url = https://www.asu.cas.cz/~ppravec/newres.txt

|first = Petr

|last = Pravec

|work = Ondrejov Asteroid Photometry Project

|publisher = Astronomical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences

|access-date = 29 January 2025

|archive-date = 30 January 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250130070842/https://www.asu.cas.cz/~ppravec/newres.txt

|url-status = live}}

{{cite news

|title = Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

|first = Ian

|last = Sample

|url = https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032

|date = 30 January 2025

|work = The Guardian

|access-date = 30 January 2025}}

{{cite news

|title = Astronomers Are Keeping an Eye on This Asteroid's Odds of Hitting Earth

|first = Robin George

|last = Andrews

|url = https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth.html

|date = 29 January 2025

|work = The New York Times

|access-date = 30 January 2025

|archive-date = 30 January 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250130083131/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth.html

|url-status = live}}

{{cite web

|title = Re: 2024 YR4 occultation on Feb 6 and later....

|url = https://groups.io/g/IOTAoccultations/topic/planoccult_re/110928601

|first = Dave |last = Herald

|work = International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) Mailing List

|date = 31 January 2025

|access-date = 31 January 2025}}

{{cite magazine

|title = Newfound Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032, Scientists Say

|url = https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-asteroid-2024-yr24-strike-earth-in-2032/

|first = Jonathan

|last = O'Callaghan

|magazine = Scientific American

|date = 31 January 2025

|access-date = 1 February 2025

|archive-date = 1 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250201005749/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-asteroid-2024-yr24-strike-earth-in-2032/

|url-status = live}}

{{cite web

|title = Asteroid 2024 YR4 reaches level 3 on the Torino Scale

|url = https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news210.html

|work = Center for Near-Earth Object Studies

|publisher = NASA

|date = 31 January 2025

|access-date = 1 February 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = Visual Magnitude

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272025-02-13%27&STOP_TIME=%272025-03-14%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%279%27

|accessdate = 1 March 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4 uncertainty (RNG_3sigma in km) for 1 March 2025

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272025-03-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272025-03-02%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2739%27

|accessdate = 3 April 2025

|archive-date = 21 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250221165618/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272025-03-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272025-03-02%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2739%27

|url-status = live }}

{{cite web

|title = 2024YR4 distance from Sun (R) and Earth (Delta) on 2025-03-23

|url = http://neo.ssa.esa.int/o/PSDB-portlet/ephemerides?des=2024YR4&oc=500&t0=2025-03-23T00:00Z&t1=2025-03-23T00:00Z&ti=1&tiu=days

|work = Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre

|publisher = European Space Agency

|access-date = 1 April 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = 2026 Opposition

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|type = Maximum solar elongation is 176 degrees

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272026-Apr-21%27&STOP_TIME=%272026-Apr-22%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20hour%27&QUANTITIES=%279,19,20,23%27

|accessdate = 9 February 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = 2028 Opposition

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|type = Maximum solar elongation is 176.62 degrees

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272028-Jul-19%27&STOP_TIME=%272028-Jul-20%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20hour%27&QUANTITIES=%279,19,20,23%27

|accessdate = 20 March 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = 2028 Perihelion

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|type = Perihelion occurs when rdot flips from negative to positive

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272028-Nov-18%2021:00%27&STOP_TIME=%272028-Nov-19%2003:00%27&STEP_SIZE=%2710%20min%27&QUANTITIES=%2719%27

|accessdate = 1 February 2025

|archive-date = 2 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250202001647/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272028-Nov-18%27&STOP_TIME=%272028-Nov-20%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20hour%27&QUANTITIES=%2719%27

|url-status = live }}

{{cite web

|title = 2032 Perihelion

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|type = Perihelion occurs when rdot flips from negative to positive

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-Nov-20%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-Nov-22%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20hour%27&QUANTITIES=%2719%27

|date = 7 February 2025

|accessdate = 7 February 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = JPL Horizons: 2024 YR4 geocentric distance and uncertainty at Virtual Impactor time of 22 Dec 2032 14:02 UT

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2014:02%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27

|accessdate = 3 April 2025

|archive-date = 5 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250205180003/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2014:02%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27

|url-status = live }}

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4 Moon distance and uncertainty at 22 Dec 2032 15:19 UT

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:19%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27

|accessdate = 3 April 2025

|archive-date = 19 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250219185831/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:19%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27

|url-status = live }}

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4 Moon distance and uncertainty for JPL #77 closest approach time

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:16:48%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:16:49%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27

|accessdate = 3 April 2025

|archive-url = https://archive.today/20250304163003/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND='2024+YR4'&START_TIME='2032-12-22%2015:02:26.5'&STOP_TIME='2032-12-22%2015:02:27.5'&STEP_SIZE='2'&QUANTITIES='20,39'&CENTER='@301'

|archive-date = 4 March 2025

|url-status = live }}

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4 Orbital Elements per May 2025 + April 2033

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&TABLE_TYPE=%27ELEMENTS%27&START_TIME=%272025-05-05%27&STOP_TIME=%272033-04-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%2795%20months%27&CENTER=%27@Sun%27&OUT_UNITS=%27AU-D%27

|accessdate = 7 April 2025 }}

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4 uncertainty in mid-2034

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272034-07-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272034-07-02%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2739%27

|accessdate = 3 April 2025

|archive-date = 15 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250215215937/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272034-07-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272034-07-02%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2739%27

|url-status = live }} (with a range rate uncertainty of ± 20 km/s)

{{cite web

|title = 2036 Perihelion estimate

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272036-03-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272036-11-01%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20month%27&QUANTITIES=%2719,39%27

|accessdate = 2 April 2025

|archive-date = 2 April 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250402101129/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272036-03-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272036-11-01%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20month%27&QUANTITIES=%2719,39%27

|url-status = live }}

{{cite web

|title = JPL Horizons: 2024 YR4 geocentric distance and uncertainty at Virtual Impactor time of 22 Dec 2047 01:12 UT

|publisher = JPL Horizons

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272047-12-22%2001:12%27&STOP_TIME=%272047-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2719,20,39%27

|accessdate = 3 April 2025

|archive-date = 9 March 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250309163955/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272047-12-22%2001:12%27&STOP_TIME=%272047-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2719,20,39%27

|url-status = live }}

{{cite web

|title = Visit Status Report for JWST 9239

|url = https://www.stsci.edu/jwst-program-info/visits/?program=9239

|publisher = Space Telescope Science Institute

|access-date = 29 April 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = NEO Basics – NEO Groups

|url = https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/neo_groups.html

|work = Center for Near-Earth Object Studies

|publisher = NASA

|access-date = 10 February 2025

|archive-date = 11 November 2021

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20211111141623/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/neo_groups.html

|url-status = live

}}

{{cite web

|title = 'City-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon instead of us, scientists say

|url = https://www.livescience.com/space/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say

|first = Pandora

|last = Dewan

|work = LiveScience

|date = 12 February 2025

|access-date = 3 March 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = 2024 YR4 Astrometry at IAWN

|url = https://iawn.net/documents/20250204_20th_Vienna/ESA-S2P-PD-HO-0261_1_0_2024_YR4_Astrometry_at_IAWN.pdf

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250215041905/https://iawn.net/documents/20250204_20th_Vienna/ESA-S2P-PD-HO-0261_1_0_2024_YR4_Astrometry_at_IAWN.pdf

|archive-date = 15 February 2025

|publisher = International Asteroid Warning Network

|date = 15 February 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = Physical characterization of 2024 YR4

|url = https://iawn.net/documents/20250204_20th_Vienna/ESA-S2P-PD-HO-0262.pdf

|display-authors = etal

|first1 = Maxime

|last1 = Devogèle

|first2 = Julia

|last2 = DeLeon

|first3 = Elisabetta

|last3 = Dotto

|first4 = Olivier

|last4 = Hainaut

|first5 = Simone

|last5 = Ieva

|first6 = Nick

|last6 = Moskovitz

|publisher = International Asteroid Warning Network

|date = 15 February 2025

|access-date = 15 February 2025

|archive-date = 15 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250215041924/https://iawn.net/documents/20250204_20th_Vienna/ESA-S2P-PD-HO-0262.pdf

|url-status = live

}}

{{cite journal

|title = Is Virtual Impactor 2024 YR4 Related to the Porangaba Meteorite Fall?

|first1 = Carlos |last1 = de la Fuente Marcos

|first2 = Raúl |last2 = de la Fuente Marcos

|journal = Research Notes of the AAS

|date = 18 February 2025

|volume = 9

|issue = 2

|page = 41 |id = 41

|doi-access = free

|doi = 10.3847/2515-5172/adb60e

|bibcode = 2025RNAAS...9...41D}}

{{cite web

|title = Risk Corridor for Gibbous Moon

|url = https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/yr4/moon.png

|first = Bill

|last = Gray

|work = Find_Orb

|access-date = 18 February 2025

|archive-date = 10 February 2025

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20250210080345/https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/yr4/moon.png

|url-status = live}}

{{cite web

|title = NASA Update on the Size Estimate and Lunar Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4

|url = https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/

|publisher = NASA

|first = Molly L.

|last = Wasser

|date = 2 April 2025

|access-date = 2 April 2025}}

{{cite web

|title = Asteroid impact threat estimates improved for the Earth and the Moon {{!}} University of Helsinki

|url = https://www.helsinki.fi/en/news/space/asteroid-impact-threat-estimates-improved-earth-and-moon

|website = www.helsinki.fi

|language = en

|date = 2025-04-02

|access-date =2025-04-02}}

{{cite web

|title = Asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses significant impact risk

|url = https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Asteroid_2024_YR4_no_longer_poses_significant_impact_risk

|work = Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre

|publisher = European Space Agency

|date = 25 February 2025

|access-date = 3 March 2025}}

{{cite arXiv

|display-authors = etal

|first1 = Bryce T. |last1 = Bolin

|first2 = Josef |last2 = Hanuš

|first3 = Larry |last3 = Denneau

|first4 = Roberto |last4 = Bonamico

|first5 = Laura-May |last5 = Abron

|first6 = Marco |last6 = Delbo

|title = The discovery and characterization of Earth-crossing asteroid 2024 YR4

|eprint = 2503.05694

|date = 10 March 2025|class = astro-ph.EP }}

{{cite web

|display-authors = etal

|first1 = A. S. |last1 = Rivkin

|first2 = T. |last2 = Mueller

|first3 = E. |last3 = MacLennan

|first4 = B. |last4 = Holler

|first5 = A. |last5 = Burdanov

|first6 = J. |last6 = de Wit

|title = JWST Observations of Potential Impactor 2024 YR4 (March 27, 2025)

|url = https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/gallery/YR4_memo_final_27mar25.pdf

|publisher = International Asteroid Warning Network

|date = 27 March 2025

|access-date = 27 March 2025}}

}}