Climate change in Africa

{{Further|Climate change in South Africa#Greenhouse gas emissions|Climate change in Kenya#Greenhouse gas emissions|Climate change in Nigeria#Greenhouse gas emissions|Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa#Greenhouse gas emissions}}

Africa's per person greenhouse gas emissions are low compared to other continents.{{Cite web|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_Africa.pdf|title=Fact sheet - Africa|accessdate=4 August 2024}} Emissions from land use change are uncertain, especially in Central Africa.{{Cite journal |last1=Mostefaoui |first1=Mounia |last2=Ciais |first2=Philippe |last3=McGrath |first3=Matthew J. |last4=Peylin |first4=Philippe |last5=Patra |first5=Prabir K. |last6=Ernst |first6=Yolandi |date=2024-01-11 |title=Greenhouse gas emissions and their trends over the last 3 decades across Africa |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/245/2024/ |journal=Earth System Science Data |language=en |volume=16 |issue=1 |pages=245–275 |doi=10.5194/essd-16-245-2024 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2024ESSD...16..245M |issn=1866-3516}} The main source of uncertainty comes from carbon dioxide fluxes in the LULUCF sector (this acronym stands for land use, land-use change, and forestry).

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| image1 = Koppen-Geiger Map Africa present.svg

| caption1 = Köppen climate classification map for Africa for 1980–2016

| image2 = Koppen-Geiger Map Africa future.svg

| caption2 = 2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely.{{cite journal|last1=Hausfather|first1=Zeke|last2=Peters|first2=Glen|title=Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading|journal=Nature|date=29 January 2020|volume=577|issue=7792|pages=618–20|doi=10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3|pmid=31996825|bibcode=2020Natur.577..618H|doi-access=free}}{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A.G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |quote="Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..." |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ARER...47..343S }}{{Cite web |last=Phiddian |first=Ellen |date=5 April 2022 |title=Explainer: IPCC Scenarios |url=https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |website=Cosmos |access-date=30 September 2023 |quote="The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C. |archive-date=20 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230920224129/https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |url-status=live }}

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Observed surface temperatures have generally increased over Africa since the late 19th century to the early 21st century by about 1 °C, but locally as much as 3 °C for minimum temperature in the Sahel at the end of the dry season. Observed precipitation trends indicate spatial and temporal discrepancies as expected. The observed changes in temperature and precipitation vary regionally.

Current climate models (as summarised in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report) predict increases in frequency and intensity of drought and heavy rainfall events.{{Cite journal |last1=Armstrong |first1=Andrew |last2=Dyer |first2=Ellen |last3=Koehler |first3=Johanna |last4=Hope |first4=Rob |date=2022 |title=Intra-seasonal rainfall and piped water revenue variability in rural Africa |journal=Global Environmental Change |language=en |volume=76 |page=102592 |doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102592|doi-access=free|bibcode=2022GEC....7602592A }} 50px Text was copied from this source, which is available under a [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License] They also predict decreases in mean precipitation almost everywhere in Africa, with medium to high confidence. However, local rainfall trends and socio-climatic interactions are likely to manifest in mixed patterns. Therefore, the converging impacts of climate change will vary across the continent. In rural areas, rainfall patterns influence water usage.

A study in 2019 predicted increased dry spell length during wet seasons and increased extreme rainfall rates in Africa. In other words: "both ends of Africa's weather extremes will get more severe". The research found that most climate models will not be able to capture the extent of these changes because they are not convection-permitting at their coarse grid scales.

{{See also|Floods in Africa}}

File:Dar es Salaam (Aerial).jpg

In Africa, future population growth amplifies risks from sea level rise. Some 54.2 million people lived in the highly exposed low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) around 2000. This number will effectively double to around 110 million people by 2030. By 2060 it will be around 185 to 230 million people, depending on the extent of population growth. The average regional sea level rise will be around 21 cm by 2060. At that point climate change scenarios will make little difference. But local geography and population trends interact to increase the exposure to hazards like 100-year floods in a complex way.

File:Abidjan des Lagune.jpg

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File:ANKOMAH 20221122-009.jpg, a suburb of Accra. Sunny day flooding caused by sea level rise, increases coastal erosion that destroys housing, infrastructure and natural ecosystems. A number of communities in Coastal Ghana are already experiencing the changing tides.]]

In the near term, some of the largest displacement is projected to occur in the East Africa region. At least 750,000 people there are likely to be displaced from the coasts between 2020 and 2050. Scientific studies estimate that 12 major African cities would collectively sustain cumulative damages of US$65 billion for the "moderate" climate change scenario RCP4.5 by 2050. These cities are Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda and Maputo. Under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 the damage would amount to US$86.5 billion. The version of the high-emission scenario with additional impacts from high ice sheet instability would involve up to US$137.5 billion in damages. The damage from these three scenarios accounting additionally for "low-probability, high-damage events" would rise to US$187 billion, US$206 billion and US$397 billion respectively. In these estimates, the Egyptian city of Alexandria alone accounts for around half of this figure. Hundreds of thousands of people in its low-lying areas may already need relocation in the coming decade.{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/aug/29/alexandria-little-venice-egypt-climate-change-frontline|title=Houses claimed by the canal: life on Egypt's climate change frontline| last=Michaelson| first=Ruth|date=25 August 2018|work=The Guardian|access-date=30 August 2018}} Across sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, damage from sea level rise could reach 2–4% of GDP by 2050. However this figure depends on the extent of future economic growth and adaptation.Trisos, C. H., I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N. P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen 2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf Chapter 9: Africa]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability] [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 2043–2121 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.011.

File:Leptis Magna amphitheatre - panoramio.jpg, with the sea visible in the background]]

In the longer term, Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania are likely to have the largest number of people affected by annual flooding amongst all African countries. This projection assumes global warming will reach 4 °C by the end of the century. That rise is associated with the RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5, 10 important cultural sites would be at risk of flooding and erosion by the end of the century. These are the Casbah of Algiers, Carthage Archaeological site, Kerkouane, Leptis Magna Archaeological site, Medina of Sousse, Medina of Tunis, Sabratha Archaeological site, Robben Island, Island of Saint-Louis and Tipasa. A total of 15 Ramsar sites and other natural heritage sites would face similar risks. These are Bao Bolong Wetland Reserve, Delta du Saloum National Park, Diawling National Park, Golfe de Boughrara, Kalissaye, Lagune de Ghar el Melh et Delta de la Mejerda, Marromeu Game Reserve, Parc Naturel des Mangroves du Fleuve Cacheu, Seal Ledges Provincial Nature Reserve, Sebkhet Halk Elmanzel et Oued Essed, Sebkhet Soliman, Réserve Naturelle d'Intérêt Communautaire de la Somone, Songor Biosphere Reserve, Tanbi Wetland Complex and Watamu Marine National Park.

File:Access_to_wood_and_water_appears_to_be_severely_impacted_by_climate_change_in_Kenya_and_Cameroon.png

Climate change will increasingly impact Africa due to many factors. These impacts are already being felt and will increase in magnitude if action is not taken to reduce global carbon emissions. The impacts include higher temperatures, drought, changing rainfall patterns, and increased climate variability. These conditions have a bearing on energy production and consumption. The recent drought in many African countries, which has been linked to climate change, adversely affected both energy security and economic growth across the continent.

Africa will be one of the regions most impacted by the adverse effects of climate change.{{Cite book|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf|title=Africa. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.|year=2014}} Reasons for Africa's vulnerability are diverse and include low levels of adaptive capacity, poor diffusion of technologies and information relevant to supporting adaptation, and high dependence on agro-ecosystems for livelihoods.{{Cite book|last=Welborn|first=Lily|title=Africa and climate change: Projecting vulnerability and adaptive capacity|publisher=Institute for Security Studies|year=2018}} Many countries across Africa are classified as Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) with poor socio-economic conditions, and by implication are faced with particular challenges in responding to the impacts of climate change.{{Cite book|last=UNDP/GEF|url=https://www.thegef.org/sites/default/files/publications/CCA-Africa-Final.pdf|title=Climate Change Adaptation in Africa UNDP: Synthesis of Experiences and Recommendations|publisher=UNDP/GEF|year=2018}}

Pronounced risks identified for Africa in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report relate to ecosystems, water availability, and agricultural systems, with implications for food security.

In 2022, over 6,000 respondents from ten African nations took part in a climate survey conducted by the European Investment Bank. The survey found that 88% of respondents claimed climate change was hurting their lives, while 61% of respondents claimed that environmental destruction has impacted their income or source of livelihood.{{Cite web |title=EIB Climate Survey: 88% of African respondents believe that climate change is already affecting their everyday life |url=https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2022-554-eib-climate-survey-88-of-african-respondents-believe-that-climate-change-is-already-affecting-their-everyday-life |access-date=2023-02-28 |website=European Investment Bank |language=en}} These losses are usually the result of severe drought, increasing sea levels or coastal erosion, or extreme weather events like floods or storms.{{Cite web |title=2022-2023 EIB Climate Survey, part 1 of 2: 88% of respondents believe that climate change is already affecting their everyday life |url=https://www.eib.org/en/surveys/climate-survey/5th-climate-survey/africa.htm |access-date=2023-02-28 |website=EIB.org |language=en}}

More than half of African respondents (57%) said that they or people they know have already made steps to adapt to the effects of climate change. Among these measures are investments in water-saving devices to mitigate the effects of drought and drain clearance ahead of flooding. 34% of all African respondents said climate change is one of the most pressing issues confronting their country, among other key issues such as inflation and access to health care.

Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world on average. Large portions of the continent may become uninhabitable as a result and Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) may decline by 2% as a result of a 1 °C rise in average world temperature, and by 12% as a result of a 4 °C rise in temperature. Crop yields are anticipated to drastically decrease as a result of rising temperatures and it is anticipated that heavy rains would fall more frequently and intensely throughout Africa, increasing the risk of floods.{{Cite book |last=Bank |first=European Investment |url=https://www.eib.org/en/publications/sustainability-report-2021 |title=EIB Group Sustainability Report 2021 |date=2022-07-06 |publisher=European Investment Bank |isbn=978-92-861-5237-5 |language=EN}}{{Cite web |date=2021-10-18 |title=Climate change triggers mounting food insecurity, poverty and displacement in Africa |url=https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/climate-change-triggers-mounting-food-insecurity-poverty-and-displacement-africa |access-date=2022-07-26 |website=public.wmo.int |language=en }}{{Cite web |date=2018-12-07 |title=Global warming: severe consequences for Africa |url=https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa |access-date=2022-07-26 |website=Africa Renewal |language=en}}{{Cite web |date=2020-10-27 |title=Climate Change Is an Increasing Threat to Africa |url=https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-is-an-increasing-threat-to-africa |access-date=2022-07-26 |website=United Nations Climate Change News}}

Additionally, Africa loses between $7 billion and $15 billion a year due to climate change, projected to reach up to $50 billion by 2030.{{Cite web |last1=Rathi |first1=Akshat |last2=Rao |first2=Mythili |date=2024-05-02 |title=One Bank Is Turning Africa's Climate Vulnerability Into Opportunity |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-02/inside-the-bank-financing-africa-s-green-growth |access-date=2024-05-11 |website=www.bloomberg.com}}

{{Main|Effects of climate change on agriculture#Africa}}Agriculture is a particularly important sector in Africa, contributing towards livelihoods and economies across the continent. On average, agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa contributes 15% of the total GDP.{{Cite book |last=OECD/FAO |url=http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5778e.pdf |title=OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016‑2025 |publisher=OECD Publishing |year=2016 |isbn= 978-92-64-25323-0 |pages=59–61}} Africa's geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and 70% of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods.{{Cite journal |last1=Läderach |first1=Peter |last2=Martinez-Valle |first2=Armando |last3=Bourgoin |first3=Clement |last4=Parker |first4=Louis |date=27 March 2019 |title= Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pan-tropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making |journal=PLOS ONE |volume=14 |issue=3 |pages=e0213641 |bibcode=2019PLoSO..1413641P |doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0213641 |pmc=6436735 |pmid=30917146 |doi-access=free }} Smallholder farms account for 80% of cultivated lands in Sub-Saharan Africa. The IPCC in 2007 projected that climate variability and change would severely compromise agricultural productivity and access to food.{{cite book |title=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |publisher=Cambridge University Press |year=2007 |editor=Parry, M. L. |display-editors=et al. |chapter=Summary for Policymakers: C. Current knowledge about future impacts |chapter-url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spmsspm-c.html |access-date=13 December 2023 |archive-date=2 November 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181102223635/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spmsspm-c.html }}{{rp|13}} This projection was assigned "high confidence". Cropping systems, livestock and fisheries will be at greater risk of pest and diseases as a result of future climate change.{{Cite journal |author1=Dhanush, D. |author2=Bett, B. K. |author3=Boone, R. B. |author4=Grace, D. |author5=Kinyangi, J. |author6=Lindahl, J. F. |author7=Mohan, C. V. |author8=Ramírez Villegas, J. |author9=Robinson, T. P. |author10= Rosenstock, T. S. |author11=Smith, J. |date=2015 |title=Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests and diseases |url=https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/55241/retrieve |journal=CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security }} Crop pests already account for approximately 1/6th of farm productivity losses. Climate change will accelerate the prevalence of pests and diseases and increase the occurrence of highly impactful events. The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Africa will have serious implications for food security and livelihoods. Between 2014 and 2018, Africa had the highest levels of food insecurity in the world.{{Cite book |url=http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/ |title=SOFI 2019 – The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World |publisher=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |year=2021 |isbn=978-92-5-134325-8 |language=en |doi=10.4060/CB4474EN |s2cid=241785130}}

In relation to agricultural systems, heavy reliance on rain-fed subsistence farming and low adoption of climate smart agricultural practices contribute to the sector's high levels of vulnerability. The situation is compounded by poor reliability of, and access to, climate data and information to support adaptation actions.{{Cite web|last=Dinku|first=Tufa|title=Overcoming challenges in the availability and use of climate data in Africa|url=https://ictupdate.cta.int/en/article/overcoming-challenges-in-the-availability-and-use-of-climate-data-in-africa-sid06fd8a811-e179-4fa5-9c8f-806bd2f27c3e|website=ICT Update CTA|access-date=13 December 2023|archive-date=1 November 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221101070648/https://ictupdate.cta.int/en/article/overcoming-challenges-in-the-availability-and-use-of-climate-data-in-africa-sid06fd8a811-e179-4fa5-9c8f-806bd2f27c3e}} Observed and projected disruptions in precipitation patterns due to climate change are likely to shorten growing seasons and affect crop yield in many parts of Africa. Furthermore, the agriculture sector in Africa is dominated by smallholder farmers with limited access to technology and the resources to adapt.{{Cite web |title=Supporting Sub-Saharan Africa's Farmers – Bayer – Crop Science |url=https://www.cropscience.bayer.com:443/en/stories/2018/supporting-sub-saharan-africas-farmers-closing-the-gap |access-date=2019-08-15 |website=www.cropscience.bayer.com}}

Climate variability and change have been and continue to be the principal source of fluctuations in global food production across developing countries where production is highly rain-dependent.{{cite journal |last1=Thornton |first1=Philip K |last2=Ericksen |first2=Polly J |last3=Herrero |first3=Mario |last4=Challinor |first4=Andrew J |title=Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review |journal=Global Change Biology |date=November 2014 |volume=20 |issue=11 |pages=3313–3328 |doi=10.1111/gcb.12581 |bibcode=2014GCBio..20.3313T |pmc=4258067 |pmid=24668802 }} The agriculture sector is sensitive to climate variability,{{cite journal |first1=Geoffrey |last1=Sabiiti |first2=Joseph Mwalichi |last2=Ininda |first3=Laban |last3=Ogallo |first4=Franklin |last4=Opijah |first5=Alex |last5=Nimusiima |first6=George |last6=Otieno |first7=Saul Daniel |last7=Ddumba |first8=Jamiat |last8=Nanteza |first9=Charles |last9=Basalirwa |author-link3=Ogallo Laban |title=Nanteza and C. Basalirwa. 2016. Empirical relationship between banana yields and climate variability over Uganda |journal=Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences |volume=7 |date=2016 |pages=3–13 |url=https://jeas.agropublishers.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/JEAS-7-1.pdf }} especially the inter-annual variability of precipitation, temperature patterns, and extreme weather events (droughts and floods). These climatic events are predicted to increase in the future and are expected to have significant consequences to the agriculture sector.{{cite book |doi=10.1007/978-3-319-64599-5_10 |chapter=Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change: Suitability of Banana Crop Production to Future Climate Change over Uganda |title=Limits to Climate Change Adaptation |series=Climate Change Management |date=2018 |last1=Sabiiti |first1=Geoffrey |last2=Ininda |first2=Joseph Mwalichi |last3=Ogallo |first3=Laban Ayieko |last4=Ouma |first4=Jully |last5=Artan |first5=Guleid |last6=Basalirwa |first6=Charles |last7=Opijah |first7=Franklin |last8=Nimusiima |first8=Alex |last9=Ddumba |first9=Saul Daniel |last10=Mwesigwa |first10=Jasper Batureine |last11=Otieno |first11=George |last12=Nanteza |first12=Jamiat |pages=175–190 |isbn=978-3-319-64598-8 }} This would have a negative influence on food prices, food security, and land-use decisions.{{Cite book |section=A1 – 1 Sustainability, food security and climate change: three intertwined challenges |title=Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook |publisher=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations|url=http://www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture-sourcebook/concept/module-a1-introducing-csa/chapter-a1-1/en/|access-date=2019-08-15}} Yields from rainfed agriculture in some African countries could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. To prevent the future destructive impact of climate variability on food production, it is crucial to adjust or suggest possible policies to cope with increased climate variability. African countries need to build a national legal framework to manage food resources in accordance with the anticipated climate variability. However, before devising a policy to cope with the impacts of climate variability, especially to the agriculture sector, it is critical to have a clear understanding of how climate variability affects different food crops.{{Cite journal |last1=Shah |first1=Hassnain |last2=Hellegers |first2=Petra |last3=Siderius |first3=Christian |date=2021-01-01 |title=Climate risk to agriculture: A synthesis to define different types of critical moments |url=https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212096321001078 |journal=Climate Risk Management |volume=34 |pages=100378 |doi=10.1016/j.crm.2021.100378 |bibcode=2021CliRM..3400378S |issn=2212-0963|doi-access=free }} This is particularly relevant in 2020 due to the severe invasion of Locusts adversely affecting agriculture in eastern Africa.{{cite news|last1=Rosane|first1=Olivia|date=27 January 2020|title=Worst Locust Swarm to Hit East Africa in Decades Linked to Climate Crisis|agency=Ecowatch|url=https://www.ecowatch.com/locust-swarm-east-africa-2644928358.html|access-date=6 February 2020}} The invasion was partially attributed to climate change – the warmer temperature and heavier rainfall which caused an abnormal increase in the number of locusts.

In East Africa, climate change is anticipated to intensify the frequency and intensity of drought and flooding, which can have an adverse impact on the agricultural sector. Climate change will have varying effects on agricultural production in East Africa. Research from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggest an increase in maize yields for most East Africa, but yield losses in parts of Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania and northern Uganda.{{Cite web |date=2013 |title=East African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis |url=http://www.ifpri.org/publication/east-african-agriculture-and-climate-change-comprehensive-analysis |access-date=21 September 2019 |website=International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |language=en}} Projections of climate change are also anticipated to reduce the potential of the cultivated land to produce crops of high quantity and quality.{{Cite book |url=http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2008/09/11/000158349_20080911163038/Rendered/PDF/WPS4717.pdf |title=How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones And Impact African Agriculture? |author1=Kurukulasuriya, P. |author2=Mendelsohn, R. |date=25 September 2008 |publisher=The World Bank |series=Policy Research Working Papers |doi=10.1596/1813-9450-4717 |hdl=10986/6994 |s2cid=129416028}}

Climate change in Kenya is expected to have large impacts on the agricultural sector, which is predominantly rain-fed and thus highly vulnerable to changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events.{{Cite web |last=Ministry of Environment and Forestry |title=National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) 2018–2022. Volume I |url=http://www.environment.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/NCCAP-2018-2022-v2.pdf |access-date=13 December 2023 |archive-date=2 April 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220402131336/http://www.environment.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/NCCAP-2018-2022-v2.pdf }} Impacts are likely to be particularly pronounced in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) where livestock production is the key economic and livelihood activity. In the ASALs, over 70% of livestock mortality is a result of drought. Over the next 10 years,{{When|date=March 2022}} 52% of the ASAL cattle population are at risk of loss because of extreme temperature stress.{{Cite web |last=Kenya Markets Trust |date=2019 |title=Contextualising Pathways to Resilience in Kenya's ASALs under the Big Four Agenda |url=https://www.kenyamarkets.org/contextualising-pathways-to-resilience-in-kenyas-asals-under-the-big-four-agenda/ |access-date=13 December 2023 |archive-date=16 February 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230216210136/https://www.kenyamarkets.org/contextualising-pathways-to-resilience-in-kenyas-asals-under-the-big-four-agenda/ }}

Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of the agricultural sector in most Southern African countries which are already limited by poor infrastructure and a lag in technological inputs and innovation.{{cite web |title=Fact sheet |url=https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2016%20CRM%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20Southern%20Africa.pdf |access-date=12 July 2020 |website=www.climatelinks.org}} Maize accounts for nearly half of the cultivated land in Southern Africa, and under future climate change, yields could decrease by 30%.{{Cite web |title=Overview [in Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change] |url=http://www.ifpri.org/publication/overview-southern-african-agriculture-and-climate-change |access-date=8 August 2019 |website=www.ifpri.org}} Temperatures increases also encourage a wide spread of weeds and pests.{{Cite book |last=Hachigonta |first=Sepo |url=https://cdm15738.contentdm.oclc.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/127787/filename/127998.pdf |title=Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis |last2=Nelson |first2=Gerald C. |last3=Thomas |first3=Timothy S. |last4=Sibanda |first4=Lindiwe Majele |publisher=International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |year=2013 |isbn=9780896292086 |pages=1–24 |chapter=Overview}}

Climate change will significantly affect agriculture in West Africa by increasing the variability in food production, access and availability.{{Cite journal |last1=Brown |first1=Molly E. |last2=Hintermann |first2=B. |last3=Higgins |first3=N. |date=January 2009 |title=Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa |url=https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20090027893.pdf |journal=Environmental Science & Technology |volume=43 |issue=21 |pages=8016–8020 |bibcode=2009EnST...43.8016B |doi=10.1021/es901162d |pmid=19924916|hdl=2060/20090027893 |s2cid=9412710 }}

Higher rainfall intensity, prolonged dry spells and high temperatures are expected to negatively impact cassava, maize and bean production in Central Africa.{{Cite web |title=Climate Risks in the Central Africa Regional Program for the Environment (CARPE) and Congo Basin |url=https://www.climatelinks.org/file/4614/download?token=rlgPz1eX |website=Climatelinks |access-date=13 December 2023 |archive-date=28 July 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200728153008/https://www.climatelinks.org/file/4614/download?token=rlgPz1eX }} Floods and erosion occurrence are expected to damage the already limited transportation infrastructure in the region leading to post harvest losses. Exportation of economic crops like coffee and cocoa are on the rise within the region but these crops are highly vulnerable to climate change. Conflicts and political instability have had an impact on agriculture contribution to the regional GDP and this impact will be exacerbated by climatic risks.{{Cite web |date=2013 |title=Agriculture in Africa |url=https://www.un.org/en/africa/osaa/pdf/pubs/2013africanagricultures.pdf |website=United Nations}}

Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) may decline by 2% as a result of a 1 °C rise in average world temperature, and by 12% as a result of a 4 °C rise in temperature. Crop yields are anticipated to drastically decrease as a result of rising temperatures and an increase in the likelihood of drought throughout the continent. Additionally, it is anticipated that heavy rains would fall more frequently and intensely throughout Africa, increasing the risk of floods.{{Cite book |last=Bank |first=European Investment |url=https://www.eib.org/en/publications/sustainability-report-2021 |title=EIB Group Sustainability Report 2021 |date=6 July 2022 |publisher=European Investment Bank |isbn=978-92-861-5237-5 |language=EN}}{{Cite web |title=Climate Change Is an Increasing Threat to Africa |url=https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-is-an-increasing-threat-to-africa |access-date=2022-07-26 |website=unfccc.int}}

With increasing population and corresponding energy demand, energy security must be addressed because energy is crucial for sustainable development. Climate change has affected energy sectors in Africa as many countries depend on hydropower generation. Decreasing rainfall levels and droughts have resulted in lower water levels in dams with adverse impacts on hydropower generation. This has resulted in low electrical energy production, high cost of electricity and power outages or load-shedding in some African countries that depend on hydroelectric power generation. Disruptions in hydropower generation have negatively affected various sectors in countries such as Ghana, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.

Water quality and availability have deteriorated in most areas of Africa, particularly due to climate change.{{Cite journal |last=Rankoana |first=Sejabaledi Agnes |date=1 January 2020 |title=Climate change impacts on water resources in a rural community in Limpopo province, South Africa: a community-based adaptation to water insecurity |journal=International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |volume=12 |issue=5 |pages=587–598 |doi=10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2020-0033 |bibcode=2020IJCCS..12..587R |doi-access=free }} Water resources are vulnerable and have the possibility of being strongly impacted by climate change with vast ramifications on human societies.{{Cite web |title=Climate Change and Water — IPCC |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/climate-change-and-water-2/ |access-date=2019-08-08}} The IPCC predicts millions of people in Africa will persistently face increased water stress due to climate variability and change (IPCC 2013). Changes in precipitation patterns directly affect surface runoff and water availability.{{Cite journal |last1=Fowler |first1=H. J. |last2=Blenkinsop |first2=S. |last3=Tebaldi |first3=C. |date=October 2007 |title=Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling |journal=International Journal of Climatology |volume=27 |issue=12 |pages=1547–1578 |bibcode=2007IJCli..27.1547F |doi=10.1002/joc.1556 |s2cid=53472608}}

Climate change is likely to further exacerbate water-stressed catchments across Africa – for example the Rufiji basin in Tanzania{{Cite journal |last1=Conway |first1=Declan |last2=Geressu |first2=Robel |last3=Harou |first3=Julien |last4=Kashaigili |first4=Japhet |last5=Pettinotti |first5=L. |last6=Siderius |first6=Christian |date=2019 |title=Designing a process for assessing climate resilience in Tanzania's Rufiji basin |url=https://futureclimateafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/tanzania_rufiji_river_basin_brief.pdf |journal=FCFA Country Brief}} – owing to diversity of land uses, and complex sociopolitical challenges.

{{Further|Effects of climate change on human health}}

African countries have the least efficient public health systems in the world.World Health Organization. (2014). The health of the people: what works: the African Regional Health Report 2014. World Health Organization. Infectious disease burdens such as malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue fever, meningitis, which are sensitive to climate impacts, are highest in the sub-Saharan African region. For instance, over 90 percent of annual global malaria cases are in Africa. Changes in climate will affect the spread of infectious agents as well as alter people's disposition to these infections.

According to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, climate change poses a significant threat to the health of tens of millions of Africans, as it exposes them to non-optimal temperatures, extreme weather, and an increased range and transmission rate of infectious diseases.{{cite book |type=Final Draft |chapter=Chapter 9:Africa |title=IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter09.pdf}}

Climate change, and resulting in increased temperatures, storms, droughts, and rising sea levels, will affect the incidence and distribution of infectious disease across the globe.Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.; Barker, C. M.; Garofalo, J. F.; Hahn, M.; Hayden, M.; Schramm, P. J. (2016). [https://health2016.globalchange.gov/vectorborne-diseases "Vector-Borne Diseases".] Retrieved 15 February 2017.

In July 2021, the World Food Programme (WFP) blamed the ongoing southern Madagascar food crisis as being caused solely by climate change and not by war or conflict. It was declared to be first famine caused by climate change.{{cite news |last1=Baker |first1=Aryn |title=Climate, Not Conflict. Madagascar's Famine is the First in Modern History to be Solely Caused by Global Warming |url=https://time.com/6081919/famine-climate-change-madagascar/ |access-date=24 July 2021 |magazine=Time |date=20 July 2021}}{{cite news |last1=Rodrigues |first1=Charlene |title=Madagascar famine becomes first in history to be caused solely by climate crisis |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/madagascar-famine-climate-crisis-b1888058.html |access-date=24 July 2021 |work=The Independent |date=22 July 2021}}{{Cite news|last=Harding|first=Andrew|date=24 August 2021|title=Madagascar on the brink of climate change-induced famine|language=en-GB|work=BBC News|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58303792|access-date=2021-09-10}}

{{Main|Climate change and infectious diseases#Malaria}}

In Africa malaria continues to have dramatic effects on the population. As climate change continues, the specific areas likely to experience the year-round, high-risk transmission of malaria will shift from coastal West Africa to an area between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, known as the African Highlands.{{cite journal|last1=Ryan|first1=Sadie J.|last2=McNally|first2=Amy|last3=Johnson|first3=Leah R.|last4=Mordecai|first4=Erin A.|last5=Ben-Horin|first5=Tal|last6=Paaijmans|first6=Krijn|last7=Lafferty|first7=Kevin D.|year=2015|title=Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change|journal=Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases|volume=15|issue=12|pages=718–725|doi=10.1089/vbz.2015.1822|pmc=4700390|pmid=26579951|bibcode=2015VBZD...15..718R }}

Scientific limitations when examining shifting malaria transmission rates in the African Highlands are similar to those related to broader understandings of climate change and malaria. While modeling with temperature changes shows that there is a relationship between an increase in temperature and an increase in malaria transmission, limitations still exist. Future population shifts that affect population density, as well as changes in the behavior of mosquitos, can affect transmission rates and are limiting factors in determining the future risk of malaria outbreaks, which also affect planning for correct outbreak response preparation.

With regards to malaria transmission rates in the African Highlands, factors and exposures resulting from drastic environmental changes like warmer climates, shifts in weather patterns, and increases in human impact such as deforestation, provide appropriate conditions for malaria transmission between carrier and host.{{cite journal |vauthors=Himeidan YE, Kweka EJ |year=2012 |title=Malaria in East African highlands during the past 30 years: impact of environmental changes |journal=Frontiers in Physiology |volume=3 |page=315 |doi=10.3389/fphys.2012.00315 |pmc=3429085 |pmid=22934065 |doi-access=free}} Specifically, malaria is caused by the Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax parasites which are carried by the vector Anopheles mosquito. Even though the Plasmodium vivax parasite can survive in lower temperatures, the Plasmodium falciparum parasite will only survive and replicate in the mosquito when climate temperatures are above 20 °C.{{cite web |date=14 November 2018 |title=Where Malaria Occurs |url=https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/distribution.html |access-date=27 February 2020 |website=Center for Disease Control and Prevention}} Increases in humidity and rain also contribute to the replication and survival of this infectious agent.{{cite web |date=2011 |title=Climate Change and Vector-Borne Disease |url=https://scied.ucar.edu/longcontent/climate-change-and-vector-borne-disease |access-date=27 February 2020 |website=Center for Science Education}} Exposure to malaria will become a greater risk to humans as the number of female Anopheles mosquitos infected with either the Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax parasite increases.

Studies show an overall increase in climate suitability for malaria transmission resulting in an increase in the population at risk of contracting the disease.{{cite journal |display-authors=6 |vauthors=Caminade C, Kovats S, Rocklov J, Tompkins AM, Morse AP, Colón-González FJ, Stenlund H, Martens P, Lloyd SJ |date=March 2014 |title=Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |volume=111 |issue=9 |pages=3286–3291 |bibcode=2014PNAS..111.3286C |doi=10.1073/pnas.1302089111 |pmc=3948226 |pmid=24596427 |doi-access=free}} Of significant importance is the increase of epidemic potential at higher altitudes (like the African Highlands). Rising temperatures in these areas have the potential to change normally non-malarial areas to areas with seasonal epidemics.{{cite journal |vauthors=Martens WJ, Niessen LW, Rotmans J, Jetten TH, McMichael AJ |date=May 1995 |title=Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk |journal=Environmental Health Perspectives |volume=103 |issue=5 |pages=458–64 |doi=10.1289/ehp.95103458 |pmc=1523278 |pmid=7656875|bibcode=1995EnvHP.103..458M }} Consequently, new populations will be exposed to the disease resulting in healthy years lost. In addition, the disease burden may be more detrimental to areas that lack the ability and resources to effectively respond to such challenges and stresses.{{cite journal |vauthors=Wu X, Lu Y, Zhou S, Chen L, Xu B |date=January 2016 |title=Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation |journal=Environment International |volume=86 |pages=14–23 |doi=10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.007 |pmid=26479830 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2016EnInt..86...14W }}

As climate change shifts geographic areas of transmission to the African Highlands, the challenge will be to find and control the vector in areas that have not seen it before.{{cite journal |vauthors=Tanser FC, Sharp B, le Sueur D |date=November 2003 |title=Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa |journal=Lancet |volume=362 |issue=9398 |pages=1792–8 |doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14898-2 |pmid=14654317 |s2cid=22850163}}

The United Nations Environment Programme produced a post-conflict environmental assessment of Sudan in 2007.{{citation |author=UNEP |title=Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment |date=June 2007 |url=http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/sudan/00_fwd.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304003632/http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/sudan/00_fwd.pdf |location=Nairobi, Kenya |publisher=UNEP |isbn=978-92-807-2702-9 |access-date=2022-01-18 |archive-date=2016-03-04 }} According to this report, environmental stresses in Sudan are interlinked with other social, economic and political issues, such as population displacement and competition over natural resources. Regional climate change, through decreased precipitation, was thought to have been one of the factors which contributed to the conflict in Darfur. Along with other environmental issues, climate change could negatively affect future development in Sudan. One of the recommendations made by UNEP was for the international community to assist Sudan in adapting to climate change.{{citation |title=Natural Disasters and Desertification |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100602041622/http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/sudan/03_disasters.pdf |chapter=Ch 3. Natural Disasters |chapter-url=http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/sudan/03_disasters.pdf |access-date=2022-01-18 |archive-date=2010-06-02 }} in {{harvnb|UNEP|2007|p=69}}

{{Further|Climate change in the Democratic Republic of the Congo|Climate change in São Tomé and Príncipe}}

Central Africa, for the most part, is landlocked and is geographically threatened by climate change. Due to its high climate variability and rainfed agriculture, Central Africa is expected to experience longer and more frequent heatwaves as well as an increase in wet extremes.{{cite journal |last1=Diedhiou |first1=Arona |last2=Bichet |first2=Adeline |last3=Wartenburger |first3=Richard |last4=Seneviratne |first4=Sonia I |last5=Rowell |first5=David P |last6=Sylla |first6=Mouhamadou B |last7=Diallo |first7=Ismaila |last8=Todzo |first8=Stella |last9=Touré |first9=N'datchoh E |last10=Camara |first10=Moctar |last11=Ngatchah |first11=Benjamin Ngounou |last12=Kane |first12=Ndjido A |last13=Tall |first13=Laure |last14=Affholder |first14=François |title=Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming |journal=Environmental Research Letters |date=June 2018 |volume=13 |issue=6 |page=065020 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aac3e5 |bibcode=2018ERL....13f5020D |doi-access=free |hdl=20.500.11850/274346 |hdl-access=free }} The global mean temperature in this region is to increase by 1.5 °C to 2 °C.{{cite journal |last1=Seneviratne |first1=Sonia I. |last2=Donat |first2=Markus G. |last3=Pitman |first3=Andy J. |last4=Knutti |first4=Reto |last5=Wilby |first5=Robert L. |title=Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets |journal=Nature |date=28 January 2016 |volume=529 |issue=7587 |pages=477–483 |doi=10.1038/nature16542 |pmid=26789252 |s2cid=205247437 |url=https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/9482219 }}

The carbon dioxide-absorbing capacity of forests in the Congo Basin have decreased. This decrease has occurred due to increasing heat and drought causing decreased tree growth. This suggests that even unlogged forests are being affected by climate change. A Nature study indicates that by 2030, the African jungle will absorb 14 percent less carbon dioxide than it did from around 2005–2010, and will absorb none at all by 2035.{{cite news |last1=Grossman |first1=Daniel |date=4 March 2020 |title=The Congo rainforest is losing ability to absorb carbon dioxide. That's bad for climate change. |language=en |newspaper=Washington Post |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/the-congo-rainforest-is-losing-its-ability-to-absorb-carbon-dioxide-thats-bad-for-climate-change/2020/03/03/3363d218-5ca9-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html |access-date=6 March 2020}}

{{Further|Climate change in Kenya|Climate change in Tanzania|Climate change in Ethiopia|Climate change in South Sudan}}

Situated almost entirely in the tropics, rainfall in Eastern Africa is dominated by the seasonal migration of the tropical-rain band.{{Cite journal |last=Nicholson |first=Sharon E. |date=2017 |title=Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern Africa |journal=Reviews of Geophysics |volume=55 |issue=3 |pages=590–635 |bibcode=2017RvGeo..55..590N |doi=10.1002/2016RG000544 |doi-access=free }} Eastern Africa is characterized by high spatio-temporal rainfall variability as it spans over 30 degrees of latitude (across the equator). It has influences from both the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and has major geographic features (highlands) as well as inland water bodies such as Lake Victoria. Therefore the rainfall seasonality varies from a single wet season per year in July–August in parts of the northwest (including Ethiopia and South Sudan, which are meteorologically more connected to West Africa, with the West African monsoon bringing the rains) to a single wet season per year in December – February in the south (over Tanzania), with many areas close to the equator having two rainy seasons per year,{{Cite journal |last1=Dunning |first1=Caroline M. |last2=Black |first2=Emily C. L. |last3=Allan |first3=Richard P. |date=2016 |title=The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |volume=121 |issue=19 |pages=11,405–11,424 |bibcode=2016JGRD..12111405D |doi=10.1002/2016JD025428 |doi-access=free }} approximately in March–May (the "Long Rains") and October to December (the "Short Rains"). Fine-scale variability in rainfall seasonality is often linked to orography and lakes. Inter-annual variability can be large and known controls include variations in Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of different ocean basins, large-scale atmospheric modes of variability such as the Madden–Julian Osciliation (MJO){{Cite journal |last1=Vellinga |first1=Michael |last2=Milton |first2=Sean |date=2018 |title=Drivers of interannual variability of the East African 'Long Rains' |journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |language=en |volume=144 |issue=1 |pages=861–876 |bibcode=2018QJRMS.144..861V |doi=10.1002/qj.3263 |doi-access=free }}{{Cite journal |last1=Finney |first1=Declan L. |last2=Marsham |first2=John H. |last3=Jackson |first3=Lawrence S. |last4=Kendon |first4=Elizabeth J. |last5=Rowell |first5=David P. |last6=Boorman |first6=Penelope M. |last7=Keane |first7=Richard J. |last8=Stratton |first8=Rachel A. |last9=Senior |first9=Catherine A. |date=5 February 2019 |title=Implications of Improved Representation of Convection for the East Africa Water Budget Using a Convection-Permitting Model |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=32 |issue=7 |pages=2109–2129 |bibcode=2019JCli...32.2109F |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0387.1 |doi-access=free }} and tropical cyclones.{{Cite journal |last1=Kilavi |first1=Mary |last2=MacLeod |first2=Dave |last3=Ambani |first3=Maurine |last4=Robbins |first4=Joanne |last5=Dankers |first5=Rutger |last6=Graham |first6=Richard |last7=Titley |first7=Helen |last8=Salih |first8=Abubakr A. M. |last9=Todd |first9=Martin C. |date=December 2018 |title=Extreme Rainfall and Flooding over Central Kenya Including Nairobi City during the Long-Rains Season 2018: Causes, Predictability, and Potential for Early Warning and Actions |journal=Atmosphere |language=en |volume=9 |issue=12 |page=472 |bibcode=2018Atmos...9..472K |doi=10.3390/atmos9120472 |doi-access=free}} The Long Rains are the main crop-growing season in the region. Interannual predictability of this season is low compared to the Short Rains, and recent drying contrasts with climate projections of a wetter future (the "East African climate paradox".{{cite journal |last1=Rowell |first1=David P. |last2=Booth |first2=Ben B. B. |last3=Nicholson |first3=Sharon E. |last4=Good |first4=Peter |title=Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa |journal=Journal of Climate |date=15 December 2015 |volume=28 |issue=24 |pages=9768–9788 |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0140.1 |bibcode=2015JCli...28.9768R |s2cid=129146135 }}).

Eastern Africa has witnessed frequent and severe droughts in recent decades, as well as devastating floods. Trends in rainfall since the 1980s show a general decrease in March – May (MAM) seasonal rains with a slight increase during June – September (JJAS) and October – December (OND) rains,{{Cite journal |last1=Bernhofer |first1=Christian |last2=Hülsmann |first2= Stephan |last3=Gebrechorkos |first3=Solomon H. |date=6 August 2019 |title=Long-term trends in rainfall and temperature using high-resolution climate datasets in East Africa |journal=Scientific Reports |volume=9 |issue=1 |page=11376 |bibcode=2019NatSR...911376G |doi=10.1038/s41598-019-47933-8 |pmc=6684806 |pmid=31388068 }} although there appears to have been a recent recovery in the MAM rains.{{Cite journal |last1=Wainwright |first1=Caroline M. |last2=Marsham |first2=John H. |last3=Keane |first3=Richard J. |last4=Rowell |first4=David P. |last5= Finney |first5=Declan L. |last6=Black |first6=Emily |last7=Allan |first7=Richard P. |date=12 September 2019 |title='Eastern African Paradox' rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains |journal=npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |language=en |volume=2 |issue=1 |page=34 |doi=10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7 |bibcode=2019npCAS...2...34W |doi-access=free }} In the future, both rainfall and temperature are projected to change over Eastern Africa.{{Cite journal |last1=Muhati |first1=Godwin Leslie |last2=Olago |first2=Daniel |last3=Olaka |first3= Lydia |date=1 October 2018 |title=Past and projected rainfall and temperature trends in a sub-humid Montane Forest in Northern Kenya based on the CMIP5 model ensemble |journal=Global Ecology and Conservation |volume=16 |pages=e00469 |doi=10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00469 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2018GEcoC..1600469M }}{{Cite journal |last1=Rowell |first1=David P. |last2=Senior |first2= Catherine A. |last3=Vellinga |first3=Michael |last4=Graham |first4=Richard J. |date=1 February 2016 |title=Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance? |journal=Climatic Change |language=en |volume=134 |issue=4 |pages=621–633 |bibcode=2016ClCh..134..621R |doi=10.1007/s10584-015-1554-4 |doi-access=free }} Recent studies on climate projections suggest that average temperature might increase by about 2–3 °C by the middle of the century and 2–5 °C at the end of the century.{{Cite journal |last1=Bornemann |first1=F. Jorge |last2=Rowell |first2=David P. |last3=Evans |first3=Barbara |last4=Lapworth |first4=Dan J. |last5=Lwiza |first5=Kamazima |last6= Macdonald |first6=David M.J. |last7=Marsham |first7=John H. |last8=Tesfaye |first8=Kindie |last9=Ascott |first9=Matthew J. |last10=Way |first10=Celia |date=1 October 2019 |title=Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate |journal=Climatic Change |language=en |volume=156 |issue=3 |pages=365–384 |bibcode=2019ClCh..156..365B |doi=10.1007/s10584-019-02499-2 |doi-access=free }} This will depend on emission scenarios as well as on how the real climate responds compared with the range of possible outcomes shown by models. Climate model projections tend to show an increase in rainfall, particularly during OND season, which is also projected to occur later. This delay in the short rain season, has been linked to the deepening of the Saharan Heat Low under climate change.{{cite journal |last1=Dunning |first1=Caroline M. |last2=Black |first2=Emily |last3=Allan |first3=Richard P. |title=Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change |journal=Journal of Climate |date=December 2018 |volume=31 |issue=23 |pages=9719–9738 |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1 |bibcode=2018JCli...31.9719D |s2cid=52990163 }} It should be noted, however that some models predict decreasing rainfall, and for some regions and seasons the very largest rainfall increases predicted have been shown to involve implausible mechanisms due to systematic model errors.{{Cite journal |last=Rowell |first=David P. |date=2019 |title= An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=46 |issue=11 |pages=6050–6058 |bibcode=2019GeoRL..46.6050R |doi=10.1029/2019GL082847 |doi-access=free }} In addition, changes of aerosols provide a forcing of rainfall change that is not captured in many assessments of climate projections.{{Cite journal |last1=Scannell |first1=Claire |last2=Booth |first2=Ben B. B. |last3=Dunstone |first3=Nick J. |last4=Rowell |first4=David P. |last5=Bernie |first5=Dan J. |last6=Kasoar |first6=Matthew |last7=Voulgarakis |first7=Apostolos |last8=Wilcox |first8=Laura J. |last9=Acosta Navarro |first9=Juan C. |last10=Seland |first10=Øyvind |last11=Paynter |first11=David J. |date=13 September 2019 |title=The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=32 |issue=23 |pages=8335–8354 |bibcode=2019JCli...32.8335S |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0716.1 |doi-access=free |hdl=10044/1/75583 |hdl-access=free }}{{Cite journal |last1=Rowell |first1=David P. |last2=Booth |first2=Ben B. B. |last3=Nicholson |first3=Sharon E. |last4=Good |first4=Peter |date=7 October 2015 |title=Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=28 |issue=24 |pages=9768–9788 |bibcode=2015JCli...28.9768R |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0140.1 |s2cid=129146135 }}

The contrast of the drying trend of MAM (long rains) rainfall in equatorial Eastern Africa, with most models predicting a wetting in the future has been labelled the "East African climate change paradox", although there has been some recent recovery in the rainfall. Studies have shown that the drying trend is unlikely to be purely natural, but may be driven by factors such as aerosols rather than greenhouse gases, further research is needed. The drying has been shown to have been caused by a shorter rainy season, and linked to deepening of the Arabian Heat Low.

Consistent with the uncertainty in rainfall projections, changes in rainy seasons onset are uncertain in equatorial Eastern Africa, although many models predict a later and wetter short rains. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is known to provide a strong control on inter-annual variability in the short rains,{{Cite journal |last1=Black |first1=Emily |last2=Slingo |first2=Julia |last3=Sperber |first3=Kenneth R. |date=1 January 2003 |title=An Observational Study of the Relationship between Excessively Strong Short Rains in Coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST |journal=Monthly Weather Review |volume=131 |issue=1 |pages=74–94 |bibcode=2003MWRv..131...74B |doi=10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2 |doi-access=free }} and studies show that extreme IODs may increase under climate change.{{Cite journal |last1=Cai |first1=Wenju |last2=Wang |first2=Guojian |last3=Gan |first3=Bolan |last4=Wu |first4=Lixin |last5=Santoso |first5=Agus |last6=Lin |first6=Xiaopei |last7=Chen |first7=Zhaohui |last8=Jia |first8=Fan |last9=Yamagata |first9=Toshio |date=12 April 2018 |title=Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming |journal=Nature Communications |volume=9 |issue=1 |page=1419 |bibcode=2018NatCo...9.1419C |doi=10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6 |pmid=29650992 |pmc=5897553 }}

Globally, climate change is expected to lead to intensification of rainfall, as extreme rainfall increases at a faster rate with warming than total rainfall does. Recent work shows that across Africa global models are expected to under-estimate the rate of change of this rainfall intensification, and changes in rainfall extremes may be much more widespread than those predicted by global models.{{Cite journal |last1=Finney |first1=Declan L. |last2=Marsham |first2=John H. |last3=Rowell |first3=David P. |last4=Kendon |first4= Elizabeth J. |last5=Tucker |first5=Simon O. |last6=Stratton |first6=Rachel A. |last7=Jackson |first7=Lawrence S. |date=22 January 2020 |title=Effects of explicit convection on future projections of mesoscale circulations, rainfall and rainfall extremes over Eastern Africa |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=33 |issue=7 |pages=2701–2718 |bibcode=2020JCli...33.2701F |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0328.1 |doi-access=free }}

Southern parts of Eastern Africa receive most of their rainfall in a single rainy season during the southern hemisphere's winter: over Tanzania seasonal rainfall is projected to increase under future climate change, although there is uncertainty. Further south, over Mozambique, a shorter season due to a later onset is projected under future climate change, again with some uncertainty.{{Cite journal |last1=Wang |first1=Bin |last2=Liu |first2=De Li |last3=Waters |first3=Cathy |last4=Yu |first4=Qiang |date=2 October 2018 |title=Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projected wheat yield changes under climate change in eastern Australia |journal=Climatic Change |volume=151 |issue=2 |pages=259–273 |bibcode=2018ClCh..151..259W |doi=10.1007/s10584-018-2306-z |s2cid=158743534 }}

{{Excerpt|Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa|paragraphs=1,2|file=no}}

{{Further|Climate change in Algeria|Climate change in Morocco}}

{{Further|Climate change in Ghana|Climate change in Nigeria|Climate change in Senegal|Climate change in the Gambia|Climate change in Mali}}

The West African region can be divided into four climatic sub-regions namely the Guinea Coast, Soudano-Sahel, Sahel (extending eastward to the Ethiopian border) and the Sahara,{{Cite journal |last1=Agyeman |first1=Richard Yao Kuma |last2=Quansah |first2=Emmannuel |last3=Lamptey |first3=Benjamin |last4=Annor |first4=Thompson |last5=Agyekum |first5=Jacob |date=2018 |title=Evaluation of CMIP5 Global Climate Models over the Volta Basin: Precipitation |journal=Advances in Meteorology |volume=2018 |pages=1–24 |doi=10.1155/2018/4853681 |doi-access=free}} each with different climatic conditions. The seasonal cycle of rainfall is mainly driven by the south-north movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is characterised by the confluence between moist southwesterly monsoon winds and the dry northeasterly Harmattan.{{Cite journal |last1=Sultan |first1=Benjamin |last2=Janicot |first2=Serge |date=1 November 2003 |title=The West African Monsoon Dynamics. Part II: The 'Preonset' and 'Onset' of the Summer Monsoon |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=16 |issue=21 |pages=3407–3427 |bibcode=2003JCli...16.3407S |doi=10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3407:TWAMDP>2.0.CO;2 |doi-access=free }}

Based on the inter-annual rainfall variability, three main climatic periods have been observed over the Sahel: the wet period from 1950 to the early 1960s followed by a dry period from 1972 to 1990 and then the period from 1991 onwards which has seen a partial rainfall recovery.{{Cite journal |last1=Le Barbé |first1=Luc |last2=Lebel |first2=Thierry |last3=Tapsoba |first3=Dominique |date=1 January 2002 |title=Rainfall Variability in West Africa during the Years 1950–90 |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=15 |issue=2 |pages=187–202 |bibcode=2002JCli...15..187L |doi=10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0187:RVIWAD>2.0.CO;2 |doi-access=free }}{{Cite journal |last1=Rowell |first1=David P. |year=2003 |title=The Impact of Mediterranean SSTS on the Sahelian Rainfall Season |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=16 |issue=5 |pages=849–862 |bibcode=2003JCli...16..849R |doi=10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0849:tiomso>2.0.co;2 |doi-access=free}}{{Cite journal |last1=Nicholson |first1=Sharon E. |last2=Fink |first2=Andreas H. |last3=Funk |first3=Chris |year=2018 |title=Assessing recovery and change in West Africa's rainfall regime from a 161-year record |journal=International Journal of Climatology |volume=38 |issue=10 |pages=3770–3786 |bibcode=2018IJCli..38.3770N |doi=10.1002/joc.5530 |s2cid=134207640|doi-access=free }} During the dry period, the Sahel experienced a number of particularly severe drought events, with devastating effects.{{cite journal |last1=Funk |first1=Chris |last2=Fink |first2=Andreas H. |last3=Nicholson |first3=Sharon E. |date=1 August 2018 |title=Assessing recovery and change in West Africa's rainfall regime from a 161-year record |journal=International Journal of Climatology |volume=38 |issue=10 |pages=3770–3786 |bibcode=2018IJCli..38.3770N |doi=10.1002/joc.5530 |doi-access=free}}{{cite journal |last=Nicholson |first=Sharon E. |date=2013 |title=The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability |journal=ISRN Meteorology |volume=2013 |pages=1–32 |doi=10.1155/2013/453521 |doi-access=free}} The recent decades, have also witnessed a moderate increment in annual rainfall since the beginning of 1990s. However, total annual rainfall remains significantly below that observed during the 1950s.{{cite journal |last1=Panthou |first1=G |last2=Lebel |first2=T |last3=Vischel |first3=T |last4=Quantin |first4=G |last5=Sane |first5=Y |last6=Ba |first6=A |last7=Ndiaye |first7=O |last8=Diongue-Niang |first8=A |last9=Diopkane |first9=M |title=Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case |journal=Environmental Research Letters |date=June 2018 |volume=13 |issue=6 |page=064013 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aac334 |bibcode=2018ERL....13f4013P |doi-access=free }}

Some have identified the two recent decades as a recovery period.{{Cite journal |last1=Sanogo |first1=Souleymane |last2=Fink |first2=Andreas H. |last3=Omotosho |first3=Jerome A. |last4=Ba |first4=Abdramane |last5=Redl |first5=Robert |last6=Ermert |first6=Volker |date=2015 |title=Spatio-temporal characteristics of the recent rainfall recovery in West Africa |journal=International Journal of Climatology |volume=35 |issue=15 |pages=4589–4605 |bibcode=2015IJCli..35.4589S |doi=10.1002/joc.4309 |s2cid=129607595}} Others refer to this as a period of "hydrological intensification" with much of the annual rainfall increase coming from more severe rain events and sometimes flooding rather than more frequent rainfall, or similarly other works{{cite journal |last1=L'Hote |first1=Yann |last2=Mahe |first2=Gil |last3=Some |first3=Bonaventure |title=The 1990s rainfall in the Sahel: the third driest decade since the beginning of the century |journal=Hydrological Sciences Journal |date=June 2003 |volume=48 |issue=3 |pages=493–496 |doi=10.1623/hysj.48.3.493.45283 |bibcode=2003HydSJ..48..493L |doi-access=free }}{{Cite journal |last1=Nicholson |first1=S. E. |last2=Some |first2=B. |last3=Kone |first3=B. |date=1 July 2000 |title=An Analysis of Recent Rainfall Conditions in West Africa, Including the Rainy Seasons of the 1997 El Niño and the 1998 La Niña Years |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=13 |issue=14 |pages=2628–2640 |bibcode=2000JCli...13.2628N |doi=10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2628:AAORRC>2.0.CO;2 |doi-access=free }} underline the continuity of the drought even though the rainfall has increased. Since 1985, 54 percent of the population has been affected by five or more floods in the 17 Sahel region countries.[http://www.unep.org/pdf/UNEP_Sahel_EN.pdf Livelihood Security Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170228014910/http://www.unep.org/pdf/UNEP_Sahel_EN.pdf |date=28 February 2017 }} 2011 In 2012, severe drought conditions in the Sahel were reported. Governments in the region responded quickly, launching strategies to address the issue.{{cite web |last=Fominyen |first=George |title=Coming weeks critical to tackle Sahel hunger – U.N. humanitarian chief |url=http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/coming-weeks-critical-to-tackle-sahel-hunger-un-humanitarian-chief |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120603231542/http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/coming-weeks-critical-to-tackle-sahel-hunger-un-humanitarian-chief/ |archive-date=3 June 2012 |access-date=10 June 2012 |publisher=Thomson Reuters Foundation}}

The region is projected to experience changes in rainfall regime, with climate models suggesting that decreases in wet season rainfall are more likely in the western Sahel, and increases more likely in the central to east Sahel, although opposite trends cannot yet be ruled out.{{Cite journal |last1=Rowell |first1=David P. |last2=Senior |first2=Catherine A. |last3=Vellinga |first3=Michael |last4=Graham |first4=Richard J. |year=2016 |title=Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance? |journal=Climatic Change |volume=134 |issue=4 |pages=621–633 |bibcode=2016ClCh..134..621R |doi=10.1007/s10584-015-1554-4 |doi-access=free}}{{cite journal |last1=Berthou |first1=Ségolène |last2=Rowell |first2=David P. |last3=Kendon |first3=Elizabeth J. |last4=Roberts |first4=Malcolm J. |last5=Stratton |first5=Rachel A. |last6=Crook |first6=Julia A. |last7=Wilcox |first7=Catherine |title=Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales |journal=Climate Dynamics |date=August 2019 |volume=53 |issue=3–4 |pages=1991–2011 |doi=10.1007/s00382-019-04759-4 |bibcode=2019ClDy...53.1991B |doi-access=free }}{{Cite journal |last1=Kendon |first1=Elizabeth J. |last2=Stratton |first2=Rachel A. |last3=Tucker |first3=Simon |last4=Marsham |first4=John H. |last5=Berthou |first5=Ségolène |last6=Rowell |first6=David P. |last7=Senior |first7=Catherine A. |date=2019 |title=Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale |journal=Nature Communications |volume=10 |issue=1 |page=1794 |bibcode=2019NatCo..10.1794K |doi=10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9 |pmc=6478940 |pmid=31015416 }} These trends will affect the frequency and severity of floods, droughts, desertification, sand and dust storms, desert locust plagues and water shortages.{{cite news |title=IPCC Sees Severe Climate Change Impacts on Africa |publisher=ABC Live |agency=ABC Live |url=http://abclive.in/ipcc-climate-change-impacts-africa/ |access-date=7 September 2016}}{{Cite news |last=Vogel |first=Coleen |author1-link=Coleen Vogel |title=Why Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change |work=The Conversation |url=http://theconversation.com/why-africa-is-particularly-vulnerable-to-climate-change-41775 |access-date=2017-08-07}}

However, irrespective of the changes in seasonal mean rain, the most intense storms are expected to become more intense, amplifying flood frequency.{{Cite journal |last1=Berthou |first1=Ségolène |last2=Rowell |first2=David P. |last3=Kendon |first3=Elizabeth J. |last4=Roberts |first4=Malcolm J. |last5=Stratton |first5=Rachel A. |last6=Crook |first6=Julia A. |last7=Wilcox |first7=Catherine |date=12 April 2019 |title=Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales |journal=Climate Dynamics |volume=53 |issue=3–4 |pages=1991–2011 |bibcode=2019ClDy...53.1991B |doi=10.1007/s00382-019-04759-4 |doi-access=free }}{{Cite journal |last1=Kendon |first1=Elizabeth J. |last2=Stratton |first2=Rachel A. |last3=Tucker |first3=Simon |last4=Marsham |first4=John H. |last5=Berthou |first5=Ségolène |last6=Rowell |first6=David P. |last7=Senior |first7=Catherine A. |date=23 April 2019 |title=Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale |journal=Nature Communications |volume=10 |issue=1 |page=1794 |bibcode=2019NatCo..10.1794K |doi=10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9 |pmc=6478940 |pmid=31015416 }} Enhanced carbon emissions and global warming may also lead to an increase in dry spells especially across the Guinea Coast associated with a reduction of the wet spells under both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming level.{{cite journal |last1=Klutse |first1=Nana Ama Browne |last2=Ajayi |first2=Vincent O |last3=Gbobaniyi |first3=Emiola Olabode |last4=Egbebiyi |first4=Temitope S |last5=Kouadio |first5=Kouakou |last6=Nkrumah |first6=Francis |last7=Quagraine |first7=Kwesi Akumenyi |last8=Olusegun |first8=Christiana |last9=Diasso |first9=Ulrich |last10=Abiodun |first10=Babatunde J |last11=Lawal |first11=Kamoru |last12=Nikulin |first12=Grigory |last13=Lennard |first13=Christopher |last14=Dosio |first14=Alessandro |title=Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa |journal=Environmental Research Letters |date=1 May 2018 |volume=13 |issue=5 |page=055013 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aab37b |doi-access=free |bibcode=2018ERL....13e5013A }}

Fifteen percent of Sahel region population has also experienced a temperature increase of more than 1 °C from 1970 to 2010. The Sahel region, in particular, will experience higher average temperatures over the course of the 21st century and changes in rainfall patterns, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

{{Further|Climate change in South Africa|Climate change in Mozambique|Climate change in Madagascar}}

{{Further|climate change adaptation}}

To reduce the impacts of climate change on African countries, adaptation measures are required at multiple scales – ranging from local to national and regional levels.{{Cite web|url=https://climateanalytics.org/media/schaeffer_et_al__2013__africao__s_a_daptation_gap_technical_report.pdf|title=Africa's Adaptation Gap, Technical Report: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Challenges, and Costs for Africa|last=Climate Analytics|website=Climate Analytics|access-date=8 March 2021|archive-date=17 November 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221117055339/https://climateanalytics.org/media/schaeffer_et_al__2013__africao__s_a_daptation_gap_technical_report.pdf|url-status=dead}} The first generation of adaptation projects in Africa can be largely characterized as small-scale in nature, focused on targeted investments in agriculture and diffusion of technologies to support adaptive decision-making.{{Cite book |last=Troni |first=Jessica |title=Climate change adaptation in Africa: UNDP synthesis of experiences and recommendations |year=2018 |oclc=1079881730}} More recently, programming efforts have re-oriented towards larger and more coordinated efforts, tackling issues that spanning multiple sectors. According to a 2023 study, 59% of African banks have a climate change policy in place, with another 22% planning to implement one. 65% of banks presently consider climate risk when evaluating new clients or projects, with another 23% expecting to do so in the future.

File:Green_finance_opportunities_and_products_(%_of_surveyed_African_banks).png opportunities and products from surveyed banks in the European Investment Bank's Banking in Africa survey{{Cite web|title=Finance in Africa report finds that banks want to move faster into green lending|url=https://www.eib.org/en/essays/africa-green-lending|access-date=2021-12-10|website=European Investment Bank|language=en}}{{Cite book|last=Bank|first=European Investment|url=https://www.eib.org/en/publications/economic-report-finance-in-africa-green-smart-inclusive-private-sector-development|title=Finance in Africa: for green, smart and inclusive private sector development|date=18 November 2021|publisher=European Investment Bank|isbn=978-92-861-5063-0|language=EN}}]]

Improved weather forecasting technology in sub-Saharan Africa is important to inform the response to climate change,{{Cite journal|last1=Youds|first1=L.|last2=Parker|first2=D. J.|last3=Adefisan|first3=E. A.|last4=Antwi-Agyei|first4=P.|last5=Bain|first5=C. L.|last6=Black|first6=E. C. L.|last7=Blyth|first7=A. M.|last8=Dougill|first8=A. J.|last9=Hirons|first9=L. C.|date=13 May 2021|title=GCRF African SWIFT White Paper Policy Brief: The future of African weather forecasting|url=http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/174093/|access-date=2021-05-13|website=eprints.whiterose.ac.uk|language=en|doi=10.5518/100/67}} to aid decision-making associated with adaptation to climate change for example.

During the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2015, African heads of state launched the Africa Adaptation Initiative (AAI). The AAI's steering committee is composed of the African Ministerial Conference on Environment (AMCEN) Bureau and the chair of the African Group of Negotiators (AGN).{{Cite web|url=https://africaadaptationinitiative.org/|title=AAI|accessdate=4 August 2024}}

The Africa Adaptation Initiative is also supported by the European Union.{{cite web|url = https://www.africa.undp.org/content/rba/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2020/european-union-ramps-up-support-to-africa-adaptation-initiative-.html |title = European Union ramps up support to Africa Adaptation Initiative|website = United Nations Development Programme|date = 22 January 2020}} The European Union has partnered with the African Union on the promotion of sustainable resources management, environmental resilience, and climate change mitigation{{Cite web |url=https://africa-eu-partnership.org/en/strategic-priority-areas/strengthening-resilience-peace-security-and-governance |title=Strengthening Resilience, Peace, Security and Governance |access-date=13 December 2023 |archive-date=10 May 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210510085847/https://africa-eu-partnership.org/en/strategic-priority-areas/strengthening-resilience-peace-security-and-governance }}

At the regional level, regional policies and actions in support of adaptation across Africa are still in their infancy. The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) highlights examples of various regional climate change action plans, including those developed by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Lake Victoria Basin Committee. At the national level, many early adaptation initiatives were coordinated through National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) or National Climate Change Response Strategies (NCCRS). Implementation has been slow however, with mixed success in delivery.{{Cite journal|last1=Pardoe|first1=Joanna|last2=Conway|first2=Declan|last3=Namaganda|first3=Emilinah |last4=Vincent|first4=Katharine|last5=Dougill|first5=Andy|last6=Kashaigili|first6=Japhet|date=2018|title=Climate Change and the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Policy and Practice in Tanzania.|journal= Climate Policy|volume=18|issue=7|pages=863–877|doi=10.1080/14693062.2017.1386082|doi-access=free}} Integration of climate change with wider economic and development planning remains limited but growing.{{Cite book|title=Lessons learned in preparing national adaptation programmes of action in Eastern and Southern Africa|last1=Osman-Elasha|first1=Balgis|last2=Downing|first2=Tom | publisher = Stockholm Environment Institute|year=2007}}

At the subnational level, many provincial and municipal authorities are also developing their own strategies, for example the Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy.{{Cite web|url=https://www.westerncape.gov.za/text/2015/march/western_cape_climate_change_response_strategy_2014.pdf|title=Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy|last=Western Cape Government|date=2014|access-date=8 March 2021|archive-date=20 February 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230220102835/https://www.westerncape.gov.za/text/2015/march/western_cape_climate_change_response_strategy_2014.pdf|url-status=dead}} Yet, levels of technical capacity and resources available to implement plans are generally low. There has been considerable attention across Africa given to implementing community-based adaptation projects. There is broad agreement that support to local-level adaptation is best achieved by starting with existing local adaptive capacity, and engaging with indigenous knowledge and practices.{{Cite journal|last1=Ofoegbu|first1=Chidiebere|last2=Chirwa|first2=Paxie|last3=Francis|first3=Joseph|last4=Babalola|first4=Folaranmi|date=15 May 2017|title=Assessing vulnerability of rural communities to climate change: A review of implications for forest-based livelihoods in South Africa|journal=International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management|volume=9|issue=3|pages=374–386|doi=10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2016-0044 |hdl=2263/61659|hdl-access=free}}

File:Climate risk approach (%25 of surveyed African banks).png

The IPCC highlights a number of successful approaches to promote effective adaptation in Africa, outlining five common principles. These include:

1. Enhancing support for autonomous forms of adaptation;
2. Increasing attention to the cultural, ethical, and rights considerations of adaptation (especially through active participation of women, youth, and poor and vulnerable people in adaptation activities);
3. Combining "soft path" options and flexible and iterative learning approaches with technological and infrastructural approaches (including integration of scientific, local, and indigenous knowledge in developing adaptation strategies)
4. Focusing on enhancing resilience and implementing low-regrets adaptation options; and
5. Building adaptive management and encouraging process of social and institutional learning into adaptation activities.

The World Health Organization's report "Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa Plan of Action for the Health Sector 2012–2016"World Health Organization. (2012). Adaptation to climate change in Africa plan of action for the health sector 2012–2016. Retrieved from http://www.afro.who.int/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=7699&Itemid=2593 is intended to "provide a comprehensive and evidence-based coordinated response of the health sector to climate change adaptation needs of African countries in order to support the commitments and priorities of African governments." The action plan includes goals like scaling up public health activities, coordinating efforts on an international scale, strengthening partnerships and collaborative efforts, and promoting research on both the effects of climate change as well as effective measures taken in local communities to mitigate climate change consequences.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sub-Saharan Africa requires $30–$50 billion in additional financing each year to adapt to the effects of climate change.{{Cite web|title=Sub-Saharan Africa: One Planet, Two Worlds, Three Stories|url=https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/10/20/pr21306-sub-saharan-africa-one-planet-two-worlds-three-stories|access-date=2021-12-06|website=IMF|language=en}}{{Cite book|last=Dept|first=International Monetary Fund African|url=https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/books/086/28915-9781513536835-en/ch02.xml|title=2. Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa|date=15 April 2020|publisher=International Monetary Fund|isbn=978-1-5135-3683-5|language=en|access-date=13 December 2023|archive-date=23 May 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220523061856/https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/books/086/28915-9781513536835-en/ch02.xml}}

Climate financing in the Middle East and North Africa totaled $32.6 billion (2% of the world total) in 2019/2020, while climate investment in Sub-Saharan Africa was $43.8 billion (3% of the global total).{{Cite book |last=Bank |first=European Investment |url=https://www.eib.org/en/publications/20230088-finance-in-africa |title=Finance in Africa: Uncertain times, resilient banks: African finance at a crossroads |date=2023-09-27 |publisher=European Investment Bank |isbn=978-92-861-5598-7 |language=EN}}{{Cite web |date=2021-03-15 |title=Climate Finance Regional Briefing: Middle East and North Africa (2020) - Climate Funds Update |url=https://climatefundsupdate.org/publications/climate-finance-regional-briefing-middle-east-and-north-africa-2020/ |access-date=2023-10-31 |language=en-US}}

According to the European Investment Bank's Banking in Africa study 2021, African institutions are becoming more conscious of the need to address the dangers posed by climate change and are beginning to capitalize on possibilities in green financing. For example, 54% of questioned banks in the study saw climate change as a strategic concern, and more than 40% had people focusing on climate-related fronts.{{Cite web|last=Importer|first=A. P. O.|date=18 November 2021|title=EIB study highlights impact of COVID on African banks and business financing and opportunities for climate finance and digital transformation|url=https://africa.businessinsider.com/apo/eib-study-highlights-impact-of-covid-on-african-banks-and-business-financing-and/205d41n|access-date=2021-12-06|website=Business Insider Africa|language=en}} Sub-Saharan African banks are growing their digital offerings, which has been expedited by the COVID-19 pandemic. The majority of the banks surveyed said that the pandemic has accelerated the speed of digital transformation, and that this shift will be permanent.{{Cite web|title=EIB President highlights new gender and digital investment initiatives to accelerate economic recovery across Africa|url=https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2021-165-eib-president-highlights-new-gender-and-digital-investment-initiatives-to-accelerate-economic-recovery-across-africa|access-date=2021-12-06|website=European Investment Bank|language=en}}{{Cite web|title=European Investment Bank Development Report|url=https://www.eib.org/attachments/thematic/the_eib_development_report_2021_en.pdf|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210616085058/https://www.eib.org/attachments/thematic/the_eib_development_report_2021_en.pdf |archive-date=2021-06-16 }}

The poor and vulnerable are most susceptible, with migrant workers, refugees, and other marginalised groups likely to suffer the most. GDP per capita is not likely to rebound to 2019 levels until 2024, with risks tilting to the downside, and the crisis has reversed a predicted drop in the number of poor people, according to the IMF.

In comparison to pre-crisis forecasts, this might result in an additional 30 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa living in extreme poverty by 2021, as well as an additional nine million in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) area.{{Cite web|last1=Selassie|first1=Abebe Aemro|last2=Department|first2=Habtamu Fuje IMF African|title=Seven Charts that Show Sub-Saharan Africa at a Crucial Point|url=https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/10/20/na102021-seven-charts-that-show-sub-saharan-africa-at-a-crucial-point|access-date=2021-12-06|website=IMF|language=en}}

As of 2023, about a third of all African climate funding flows to five major markets: Morocco (7% of African climate investment in 2019/2022), Nigeria (7%), Kenya (7%), Ethiopia (6%), and South Africa (5%).

Over the last decade, worldwide greenfield foreign direct investment has declined at a 3% annual rate, with Africa's global contribution dropping from 12% in 2017 to less than 6% in 2021.{{Cite web |title=World Investment Report 2023 |url=https://unctad.org/publication/world-investment-report-2023 |access-date=2023-10-31 |website=UNCTAD |language=en}}

File:Climate change specific personnel (%25 of surveyed African banks).png

Key adaptations in northern Africa relate to increased risk of water scarcity (resulting from a combination of climate change affecting water availability and increasing demand). Reduced water availability, in turn, interacts with increasing temperatures to create need for adaptation among rainfed wheat production{{Cite journal|last1=Hegazy|first1=A. K.|last2=Medany|first2=M. A.|last3=Kabiel|first3=H. F.|last4=Maez|first4=M. M.|date=2008|title=Spatial and temporal projected distribution of four crop plants in Egypt|journal=Natural Resources Forum|volume=32|issue=4|pages=316–326|doi=10.1111/j.1477-8947.2008.00205.x}}{{Cite web |last=Drine|first=I.|date=May 2011|title=Climate Change Compounding Risks in North Africa |url=https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/climate-change-compounding-risks-north-africa|website=United Nations University-World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) |type=Working Paper No. 32}} and changing disease risk (for example from leishmaniasis).{{Cite journal|last1=Bounoua|first1=L.|last2=Kahime|first2=K.|last3=Houti|first3=L.|last4=Blakey|first4=T.|last5=Ebi|first5=K.L.|last6=Zhang|first6=P.|last7=Imhoff|first7=M.L.|last8=Thome|first8=K.J.|last9=Dudek|first9=C.|date=2013|title=Linking climate to incidence of zoonotic cutaneous Leishmaniasis (L. major) in Pre-Saharan North Africa|journal=International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health|volume=10|issue=8|pages=3172–3191|doi=10.3390/ijerph10083172|pmid=23912199|pmc=3774431|doi-access=free|bibcode=2013IJERP..10.3172B }}{{Cite journal|last1=Toumi|first1=Amine|last2=Chlif|first2=Sadok|last3=Bettaieb|first3=Jihene|last4=Alaya|first4=Nissaf Ben|last5=Boukthir|first5=Aicha|last6=Ahmadi|first6=Zaher E.|last7=Salah|first7=Afif Ben|date=May 2012|editor-last=Ozcel|editor-first=Mehmet Ali|title=Temporal Dynamics and Impact of Climate Factors on the Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Central Tunisia|journal=PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases|volume=6|issue=5|pages=e1633|doi=10.1371/journal.pntd.0001633|pmid=22563513|pmc=3341328 |doi-access=free }} Most government actions for adaptation centre on water supply side, for example through desalination, inter-basin transfers and dam construction.{{cite journal |last1=Sowers |first1=Jeannie |last2=Vengosh |first2=Avner |last3=Weinthal |first3=Erika |title=Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa |journal=Climatic Change |date=February 2011 |volume=104 |issue=3–4 |pages=599–627 |doi=10.1007/s10584-010-9835-4 |bibcode=2011ClCh..104..599S |hdl=10161/6460 |s2cid=37329318 |hdl-access=free }} Migration has also been observed to act as an adaptation for individuals and households in northern Africa.{{cite journal |last1=Scheffran |first1=Jürgen |last2=Marmer |first2=Elina |last3=Sow |first3=Papa |title=Migration as a contribution to resilience and innovation in climate adaptation: Social networks and co-development in Northwest Africa |journal=Applied Geography |date=April 2012 |volume=33 |pages=119–127 |doi=10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.10.002 |bibcode=2012AppGe..33..119S }} Like many regions, however, examples of adaptation action (as opposed to intentions to act, or vulnerability assessments) from north Africa are limited – a systematic review published in 2011 showed that only 1 out of 87 examples of reported adaptations came from North Africa.{{Cite journal|last1=Berrang-Ford|first1=Lea|last2=Ford|first2=James D.|last3=Peterson|first3=Jaclyn|date=2011|title=Are we adapting to climate change?|doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.012|journal=Global Environmental Change|volume=21|issue=1 |pages=25–33|bibcode=2011GEC....21...25B }}

{{Further|Climate change adaptation in Ghana}}

Water availability is a particular risk in Western Africa, with extreme events such as drought leading to humanitarian crises associated with periodic famines, food insecurity, population displacement, migration and conflict and insecurity. Adaptation strategies can be environmental, cultural/agronomic and economic.{{cite journal |last1=Shaibu |first1=M. T. |last2=Alhassan |first2=S. I. |last3=Panyan |first3=E. K. |last4=Avornyo |first4=F. K. |last5=Konlan |first5=S. P. |last6=Salifu |first6=S. |title=An Assessment of Institutional Importance of Climate Change Adaptation in the Volta River Basin of Northern Ghana |journal=West African Journal of Applied Ecology |date=2018 |volume=26 |pages=27–40 |url=https://www.ajol.info/index.php/wajae/article/view/182464 }}

Adaptation strategies are evident in the agriculture sector, some of which are developed or promoted by formal research or experimental stations.{{Cite journal |last1=Kuwornu |first1=John K. M. |last2=Al-Hassan |first2=Ramatu M. |last3=Etwire |first3=Prince Maxwell |last4=Osei-Owusu |first4=Yaw |date=2013 |title=Adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability: Evidence from northern Ghana |journal=Information Management and Business Review |volume=5 |issue=5 |pages=233–239 |doi=10.22610/imbr.v5i5.1047 |doi-access=free}} Indigenous agricultural adaptations observed in northern Ghana are crop-related, soil-related or involve cultural practices.{{cite journal |last1=Alhassan |first1=S. I. |last2=Shaibu |first2=M. T. |last3=Kuwornu |first3=J. K. M. |last4=Damba |first4=O. T. |title=Factors Influencing Farmers' Awareness and Choice of Indigenous Practices in Adapting to Climate Change and Variability in Northern Ghana |journal=West African Journal of Applied Ecology |date=2018 |volume=26 |pages=1–13 |url=https://www.ajol.info/index.php/wajae/article/view/182462 }} Livestock-based agricultural adaptations include indigenous strategies such as adjusting quantities of feed to feed livestock, storing enough feed during the abundant period to be fed to livestock during the lean season, treating wounds with solution of certain barks of trees, and keeping local breeds which are already adapted to the climate of northern Ghana;{{Cite book|chapter=Perceptions and Determinants of the Adoption of Indigenous Strategies for Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from Smallholder Livestock Farmers, North-West Ghana |editor= Kuwornu, J. K. M. |title=Climate Change in Sub-saharan Africa: The vulnerability and adaptation of food supply chains actors |author1=Shaibu, M. T. |author2=Alhassan, I. S. |author3=Avornyo, F. K. |author4=Lawson, E. T. |author5=Mensah, A. |author6=Gordon, C.|publisher=Vernon Press|year=2019|pages=223–240}} and livestock production technologies to include breeding, health, feed/nutrition and housing.{{Cite web|url=https://www.fao.org/4/v8180t/v8180t0y.htm|title=A classification of livestock production systems|website=www.fao.org|accessdate=4 August 2024}}

The choice and adoption of adaptation strategies is variously contingent on demographic factors such as the household size, age, gender and education of the household head; economic factors such as income source; farm size; knowledge of adaptation options; and expectation of future prospects.{{Cite journal|last=Apata, T. G.|date=2011|title=Factors influencing the perception and choice of adaptation measures to climate change among farmers in Nigeria. Evidence from farm households in Southwest Nigeria|journal=Environmental Economics|volume=2|issue=4|pages=74–83}}

In Eastern Africa adaptation options are varied, including improving use of climate information, actions in the agriculture and livestock sector, and in the water sector.

Making better use of climate and weather data, weather forecasts, and other management tools enables timely information and preparedness of people in the sectors such as agriculture that depend on weather outcomes. This means mastering hydro-meteorological information and early warning systems.{{cite book|last1=Snow|first1=John|url=https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/climate-and-disaster-resilience-/weather-and-climate-systems---africa.html|title=A New Vision for Weather and Climate Services in Africa|date=28 October 2016|publisher=UNDP}} It has been argued that the indigenous communities possess knowledge on historical climate changes through environmental signs (e.g. appearance and migration of certain birds, butterflies etc.), and thus promoting of indigenous knowledge has been considered an important adaptation strategy.

Adaptation in the agricultural sector{{Cite web|url=https://www.epa.gov/regulatory-information-sector/agriculture-sectors|title=Agriculture Sectors: Crop (NAICS 111) and Animal (NAICS 112)|date=22 February 2013}} includes increased use of manure and crop-specific fertilizer, use of resistant varieties of crops and early maturing crops. Manure, and especially animal manure is thought to retain water and have essential microbes that breakdown nutrients making them available to plants, as compared to synthetic fertilizers that have compounds which when released to the environment due to over-use release greenhouse gases.{{Cite web|title=Biological Manipulation of Manure: Getting What You Want from Animal Manure|url=https://extension.psu.edu/biological-manipulation-of-manure-getting-what-you-want-from-animal-manure|access-date=2020-11-24|website=Penn State Extension|language=en}} One major vulnerability of the agriculture sector in Eastern Africa is the dependence on rain-fed agriculture.{{cite report |last1=Hengsdijk |first1=H. |last2=Smit |first2=A. a. M. F. R. |last3=Conijn |first3=J. G. |last4=Rutgers |first4=B. |last5=Biemans |first5=H. |title=Agricultural crop potentials and water use in East Africa |date=2014 |publisher=Plant Research International |oclc=880257653 }}{{page needed|date=January 2024}} An adaptation solution is efficient irrigation mechanisms and efficient water storage and use. Drip irrigation has especially been identified as a water-efficient option as it directs the water to the root of the plant with minimal wastage. Countries like Rwanda and Kenya have prioritized developing irrigated areas by gravity water systems from perennial streams and rivers in zones vulnerable to prolonged droughts.{{Cite web|last=Republic of Rwanda|title=NAPA-RWANDA|url=https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/rwa01e.pdf}} During heavy rains, many areas experience flooding resulting from bare grounds due to deforestation and little land cover. Adaptation strategies proposed for this is promoting conservation efforts on land protection, by planting indigenous trees, protecting water catchment areas and managing grazing lands through zoning.{{Cite web|last1=Abuya|first1=Robina|last2=Said|first2=Mohammed|last3=Atela|first3=Joanes|last4=Muhwanga|first4=Joseph|last5=Moiko|first5=Stephen|last6=Atieno|first6=Fred|last7=Ndiritu|first7=Simon|year=2019|title=Contexualising Pathways to Resilience in Kenya's ASALs under the Big Four Agenda|url=http://www.kenyamarkets.org/publications/kmt-prise-project/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190808104609/http://www.kenyamarkets.org/publications/kmt-prise-project/|archive-date=8 August 2019|access-date=8 August 2019|website=Kenya Markets Trust}}

For the livestock sector, adaptation options include managing production through sustainable land and pasture management in the ecosystems. This includes promoting hay and fodder production methods e.g. through irrigation and use of waste treated water, and focusing on investing in hay storage for use during dry seasons. Keeping livestock is considered a livelihood rather than an economic activity. Throughout Eastern Africa Countries especially in the ASALs regions, it is argued that promoting commercialisation of livestock is an adaptation option.{{Cite web|title=Political Economy Analysis of Kenya's Livestock Sector (Abridged Version)|url=http://www.kenyamarkets.org/publications/political-economy-analysis-of-kenyas-livestock-sector-abridged-version/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190808104609/http://www.kenyamarkets.org/publications/political-economy-analysis-of-kenyas-livestock-sector-abridged-version/|archive-date=8 August 2019|access-date=8 August 2019|website=Kenya Markets Trust}} This involves adopting economic models in livestock feed production, animal traceability, promoting demand for livestock products such as meat, milk and leather and linking to niche markets to enhance businesses and provide disposable income.{{Cite web|title=Kenya Meat End-Market Trends Study|url=http://www.kenyamarkets.org/publications/kenya-meat-end-market-trends-study/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190808104612/http://www.kenyamarkets.org/publications/kenya-meat-end-market-trends-study/|archive-date=8 August 2019|access-date=8 August 2019|website=Kenya Markets Trust}}

In the water sector, options include efficient use of water for households, animals and industrial consumption and protection of water sources. Campaigns such as planting indigenous trees in water catchment areas, controlling human activities near catchment areas especially farming and settlement have been carried out to help protect water resources and avail access to water for communities especially during climatic shocks.

Comoros – "NAPA is the operational extension of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), as it includes among its adaptation priorities, agriculture, fishing, water, housing, health, but also tourism, in an indirect way, through the reconstitution of basin slopes and the fight against soils erosion, and therefore the protection of reefs by limiting the silting up by terrigenous contributions.{{Cite web|title=National Action Programme of Adaptation to climate change (NAPA)|url=http://www.preventionweb.net/files/8507_com01e.pdf}}"

Kenya gazetted the Climate Change Act, 2016 which establishes an authority to oversee development, management, implementation and regulation of mechanisms to enhance climate change resilience and low carbon development for sustainable development, by the National and County Governments, the private sector, civil society, and other actors. Kenya has also developed the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2018–2022 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191223062046/http://www.kcckp.go.ke/nccap-ii-2018-2022/ |date=23 December 2019 }}) which aims to further the country's development goals by providing mechanisms and measures to achieve low carbon climate-resilient development in a manner that prioritizes adaptation.

Angola – "The objective of the National Adaptation Programs of Action are to identify and communicate the urgent and immediate needs of the country regarding climate change adaptation, to increase Angola's resilience to climate variabilities and to climate change to ensure achievement of Poverty reduction programs, sustainable development objectives and the Millennium Development Goals pursued by the Government."{{citation |title=Analysis of Human Rights Language in the Cancun Agreements UNFCCC 16th Session of the Conference of the Parties|doi=10.1163/2210-7975_hrd-9986-0022}}

There have been several initiatives at local (site-specific), local, national and regional scales aimed at strengthening to climate change. Some of these are: The Regional Climate Change Programme (RCCP),{{cite web|title=Regional Climate Change Programme, Southern Africa |website=OneWorld|url=https://oneworldgroup.co.za/oneworld-projects/southern-african-regional-climate-change-programme-rccp/|access-date=8 August 2019}} SASSCAL,{{cite web|title=SASSCAL – Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management|url=http://www.sasscal.org/|access-date=8 August 2019}} ASSAR,{{cite web|title=Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions|url=http://www.assar.uct.ac.za/|access-date=8 August 2019|website=www.assar.uct.ac.za}} UNDP Climate Change Adaptation,{{cite web|title=Southern Africa |website=UNDP Climate Change Adaptation |url=https://www.adaptation-undp.org/explore/southern-africa|access-date=8 August 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190808131738/https://www.adaptation-undp.org/explore/southern-africa |archive-date=2019-08-08}} RESILIM,{{cite book|title=Risk, Vulnerability & Resilience in the Limpopo River basin: Climate Change, water and biodiversity – a synthesis|publisher=OneWorld|year=2015}}{{cite book|title=Resilience in the Limpopo Basin (RESILIM) Program|publisher=Chemonics International Inc|year=2017}} FRACTAL.{{cite web|title=FRACTAL — Future Resilience for African CiTies And Lands|url=http://www.fractal.org.za/|access-date=8 August 2019}} South Africa implemented the Long-Term adaptation Scenarios Flagship Research Programme (LTAS) from April 2012 to June 2014. This research also produced factsheets and a technical report covering the SADC region entitled "Climate Change Adaptation: Perspectives for the Southern African Development Community (SADC)".{{cite book|url=https://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/ltasfactsheet_perspectiveforSADC.pdf|title=Climate change adaptation: Southern African Development Community (SADC)|access-date=8 March 2021|archive-date=24 November 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201124013002/https://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/ltasfactsheet_perspectiveforSADC.pdf|url-status=dead}}

Madagascar – the priority sectors for adaptation are: agriculture and livestock, forestry, public health, water resources and coastal zones.{{cite web|title=Madagascar|url=http://www.ldc-climate.org/country/madagascar/|website=LDC Climate Change}}

Malawi – The NAPA identifies the following as high priority activities for adaptation: "Improving community resilience to climate change through the development of sustainable rural livelihoods, Restoring forests in the Upper and Lower Shire Valleys catchments to reduce siltation and associated water flow problems, Improving agricultural production under erratic rains and changing climatic conditions, Improving Malawi's preparedness to cope with droughts and floods, and Improving climate monitoring to enhance Malawi's early warning capability and decision making and sustainable utilisation of Lake Malawi and lakeshore areas resources{{Cite web|title=REPUBLIC OF MALAWI. MALAWI'S NATIONAL ADAPTATION PROGRAMMES OF ACTION (NAPA) ..|url=http://www.unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/mwi01.pdf}}". And according to the World Bank's Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Malawi, can "take steps to jumpstart investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and halt land degradation and forest loss to improve agriculture productivity and carbon capture" {{Cite web|title=Climate-Informed Economic Development Key to Malawi's Future Growth and Resilience |website=World Bank |url=https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/27/climate-informed-economic-development-key-to-malawi-s-future-growth-and-resilience}}"

Mauritius – adaptation should address the following priority areas: coastal resources, agriculture, water resources, fisheries, health and well-being, land use change and forestry and biodiversity.{{Cite web|title=Mauritius |website=UNDP Climate Change Adaptation|url=https://www.adaptation-undp.org/explore/eastern-africa/mauritius|access-date=8 August 2019}}

Mozambique – "The proposed adaptation initiatives target various areas of economic and social development, and outline projects related to the reduction of impacts to natural disasters, the creation of adaptation measures to climate change, fight against soil erosion in areas of high desertification and coastal zones, reforestation and the management of water resources."{{Cite web|title=Mozambique National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA) |website=Climate and Development Learning Platform|url=https://www.climatelearningplatform.org/mozambique-national-adaptation-programme-action-napa|access-date=2019-08-08}}"

Rwanda has developed the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA 2006) which contains information to guide national policy-makers and planners on priority vulnerabilities and adaptations in important economic sectors.{{Cite journal|date = January 2012|journal=USAID|title=Climate Change Adaptation in Rwanda|url=https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/rwanda_adaptation_fact_sheet_jan2012.pdf }} The country has also developed sector based policies on adaptation to climate change such as the Vision 2020, the National Environmental Policy and the Agricultural Policy among others.{{Cite book|last1=Ochieng|first1=Cosmas|title=Climate Change Adaptation in Rwanda's Agricultural Sector: A Case Study from Kirehe District, Eastern Province|last2=Khaemba|first2=Winnie|last3=Mwaniki|first3=Ruchathi|last4=Kimotho|first4=Stephen|date=September 2017|publisher=Defending the Voiceless: Climate and Environmental Justice in Africa}}

Tanzania – Tanzania has outlined priority adaptation measures in their NAPA, and various national sector strategies and research outputs.{{Cite journal|last=USAID|title=Climate Change Adaptation in Tanzania|url=https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/tanzania_adaptation_fact_sheet_jan2012.pdf|journal=USAID}} The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sector policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach. Most of the projects in Tanzania concern agriculture and water resource management (irrigation, water saving, rainwater collection); however, energy and tourism also play an important role.{{Cite web|title=United Republic of Tanzania |website=UNDP Climate Change Adaptation|url= https://www.adaptation-undp.org/explore/eastern-africa/united-republic-tanzania|access-date=8 August 2019}}

Zambia – "The NAPA identifies 39 urgent adaptation needs and 10 priority areas within the sectors of agriculture and food security (livestock, fisheries and crops), energy and water, human health, natural resources and wildlife."{{Cite web|title=National Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change (Zambia) |website=The REDD Desk|url=http://www.theredddesk.org/countries/plans/national-adaptation-programme-action-climate-change-zambia|access-date=2019-08-08 |archive-date=2019-08-29|url-status=usurped |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190829030222/http://theredddesk.org/countries/plans/national-adaptation-programme-action-climate-change-zambia}}

Zimbabwe – "The other strategic interventions by the NAP process will be: Strengthening the role of private sector in adaptation planning, Enhancing of the capacity of Government to develop bankable projects through trainings, Improving management of background climate information to inform climate change planning, Crafting a proactive resource-mobilization strategy for identifying and applying for international climate finance as requests for funds are primarily reactive at present, focusing on emergency relief rather than climate change risk reduction, preparedness and adaptation, Developing a coordinated monitoring and evaluation policy for programs and projects, as many institutions within the government do not currently have a systematic approach to monitoring and evaluation."{{Cite web|title=National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Roadmap for Zimbabwe|url=http://www.napglobalnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/napgn-en-2019-nap-roadmap-for-zimbabwe.pdf |website=NAP Global Network |date=April 2019}}

Lesotho – "The key objectives of the NAPA process entail: identification of communities and livelihoods most vulnerable to climate change, generating a list of activities that would form a core of the national adaptation program of action, and to communicate the country's immediate and urgent needs and priorities for building capacity for adaptation to climate change."{{Cite web|url=http://www.adaptation-undp.org/sites/default/files/downloads/lso_napa.pdf|title=LESOTHO'S NATIONAL ADAPTATION PROGRAMME OF ACTION (NAPA) ON CLIMATE CHANGE|accessdate=4 August 2024|archive-date=6 October 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221006210644/https://www.adaptation-undp.org/sites/default/files/downloads/lso_napa.pdf|url-status=dead}}"

Namibia – the critical themes for adaptation are "Food security and sustainable biological resource base, Sustainable water resources base, Human health and well being and Infrastructure development.{{cite book |doi=10.1163/9789004322714_cclc_2017-0228-011 |title=Youth Files Climate Case with India's Environmental Court |oclc=1312587857 |date=2017 |publisher=Our Children's Trust }}

South Africa has adopted in August 2020 its National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,{{Cite web |date=18 August 2020 |title=South Africa's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy approved |url=https://www.dffe.gov.za/mediarelease/nationalclimatechange_adaptationstrategy_ue10november19 |website=Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries}} which "acts as a common reference point for climate change adaptation efforts in South Africa, and it provides a platform upon which national climate change adaptation objectives for the country can be articulated so as to provide overarching guidance to all sectors of the economy{{cite web|title=NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA|url=http://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/nationalclimate_changeadaptation_strategyforcomment_nccas.pdf|access-date=10 December 2019|archive-date=4 November 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211104030516/https://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/nationalclimate_changeadaptation_strategyforcomment_nccas.pdf|url-status=dead}}"

Even though Africa is going to be one of the most affected continents from climate change, systematic inequity and other biases related to scientific research and funding mean that very little of the published science about climate change and climate research funding is for African scientist.{{Cite web|date=5 October 2021|title=Analysis: The lack of diversity in climate-science research|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-lack-of-diversity-in-climate-science-research|access-date=2021-11-15|website=Carbon Brief|language=en}} An analysis of research money from 1990 to 2020 for climate change, found that 78% of research money for research on climate change in Africa was spent in European and North American institutions and more was spent for former British colonies than other countries.{{cite journal |last1=Overland |first1=Indra |last2=Fossum Sagbakken |first2=Haakon |last3=Isataeva |first3=Aidai |last4=Kolodzinskaia |first4=Galina |last5=Simpson |first5=Nicholas Philip |last6=Trisos |first6=Christopher |last7=Vakulchuk |first7=Roman |title=Funding flows for climate change research on Africa: where do they come from and where do they go? |journal=Climate and Development |date=14 September 2022 |volume=14 |issue=8 |pages=705–724 |doi=10.1080/17565529.2021.1976609 |s2cid=244210557 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022CliDe..14..705O |hdl=11250/2832233 |hdl-access=free }} This pattern of parachute science, in turn both prevents local researchers from doing groundbreaking work, because they do not have the funding for experimental activities and reduces investment in local researchers ideas and in topics important to the Global South, such as climate change adaptation.

Accurate sustainability evaluations are challenging due to a lack of sustainable investment frameworks, as well as data and managerial capability restrictions. Currently, fewer than half of Africa's top pension funds report information on sustainability policies and execution.{{cite book |author1=European Investment Bank |title=Unlocking Sustainable Private Sector Growth in the Middle East and North Africa |date=2022 |isbn=978-92-861-5220-7 |hdl=20.500.12657/57821 |doi=10.1596/37601 |hdl-access=free |doi-access=free |s2cid=250211092 }}{{page needed|date=January 2024}}

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development - International Standards of Accounting and Reporting (UNCTAD-ISAR) founded the African Regional Partnership for Sustainability and SDG Reporting in 2022. The collaboration has 53 members as of March 2023, including national corporate social responsibility networks and/or ministries from 27 African nations.{{Cite web |title=African Regional Partnership meeting on sustainability and SDG reporting |website=UN Trade and Development |url=https://unctad.org/isar/meeting/african-regional-partnership-meeting-sustainability-and-sdg-reporting |access-date=2023-10-31 |language=en}}{{Cite web |title=UNCTAD ANNUAL REPORT 2022 |url=https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osg2023d1_en.pdf}}

{{portal|Africa|Climate change}}

• Ecotourism in Africa
• Water scarcity in Africa

{{Reflist}}

• [https://futureclimateafrica.org/ Future Climate For Africa programme]
• [https://www.uneca.org/acpc African Climate Policy Centre] (ACCP) goal is to contribute to poverty reduction through successful mitigation and adaptation to climate change in Africa and to improve the capacity of African countries to participate effectively in multilateral climate negotiations.
• [https://www.amma2050.org/ African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis 2050] (AMMA-2050) aim to address the challenges of understanding how the monsoon will change in future decades, to 2050, and how this information can be most effectively used to support climate-compatible development in the region.
• {{usurped|1=[https://web.archive.org/web/20161113010948/http://cariaa.net/home-0 Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia]}} (CARIAA) builds resilience by supporting collaborative research on climate change adaptation to inform adaptation policy and practice.
• [https://wascal.org/ West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use] (WASCAL) is a research-focused Climate Service Centre designed to help tackle this challenge and thereby enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems to climate change and increased variability in West Africa.

{{Commons category|Climate change in Africa}}

{{Climate change regions|state=expanded}}

Africa

Category:Environment of Africa