Fossil fuel phase-out#Coal

{{Short description|Gradual reduction of the use and production of fossil fuels}}

{{Distinguish|Fossil fuel divestment}}

{{Use British English|date=January 2023}}

{{Use dmy dates|date=January 2023}}

File:20210119 Renewable energy investment - 2004- BloombergNEF.svg, including renewable energy, electric vehicles and associated infrastructure, energy storage, energy-efficient heating systems, carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen energy.{{cite news |title=Energy Transition Investment Hit $500 Billion in 2020 – For First Time |url=https://about.bnef.com/blog/energy-transition-investment-hit-500-billion-in-2020-for-first-time/ |publisher=Bloomberg New Energy Finance |date=19 January 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210119134344/https://about.bnef.com/blog/energy-transition-investment-hit-500-billion-in-2020-for-first-time/ |archive-date=19 January 2021 |url-status=live }}{{cite news |last1=Catsaros |first1=Oktavia |title=Global Low-Carbon Energy Technology Investment Surges Past $1 Trillion for the First Time - Figure 1 |url=https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-low-carbon-energy-technology-investment-surges-past-1-trillion-for-the-first-time/ |publisher=Bloomberg NEF (New Energy Finance) |date=26 January 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230522001857/https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-low-carbon-energy-technology-investment-surges-past-1-trillion-for-the-first-time/ |archive-date=22 May 2023 |quote=Defying supply chain disruptions and macroeconomic headwinds, 2022 energy transition investment jumped 31% to draw level with fossil fuels |url-status=live }}{{cite web |title=Global Clean Energy Investment Jumps 17%, Hits $1.8 Trillion in 2023, According to BloombergNEF Report |url=https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-clean-energy-investment-jumps-17-hits-1-8-trillion-in-2023-according-to-bloombergnef-report/ |website=BNEF.com |publisher=Bloomberg NEF |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240628232137/https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-clean-energy-investment-jumps-17-hits-1-8-trillion-in-2023-according-to-bloombergnef-report/ |archive-date=June 28, 2024 |date=30 January 2024 |quote=Start years differ by sector but all sectors are present from 2020 onwards. |url-status=live}}2024 data: {{cite web |title=Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 / Abridged report |url=https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/951623_BNEF-Energy-Transition-Trends-2025-Abridged.pdf |publisher=BloombergNEF |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250202002640/https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/951623_BNEF-Energy-Transition-Trends-2025-Abridged.pdf |archive-date=2 February 2025 |page=9 |date=30 January 2025 |url-status=live}}]]Fossil fuel phase-out is the proposed gradual global reduction of the use and production of fossil fuels to zero, to reduce air pollution, limit climate change, and strengthen energy independence. It is part of the ongoing renewable energy transition.

Many countries are shutting down coal-fired power stations,{{Cite web |title=Nearly a quarter of the operating U.S. coal-fired fleet scheduled to retire by 2029 |url=https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54559 |access-date=2023-02-21 |website=www.eia.gov |language=en}}{{Cite web |title=Australia hastens coal plant closures to catch up on climate |url=https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Australia-hastens-coal-plant-closures-to-catch-up-on-climate |access-date=2023-02-21 |website=Nikkei Asia |language=en-GB}}{{Cite web |date=2022-08-02 |title=Our members |url=https://poweringpastcoal.org/members/ |access-date=2023-02-21 |website=PPCA |language=en}} and fossil-fuelled electricity generation is thought to have peaked.{{Cite web |last=Cuff |first=Madeleine |title=Renewables supply 30 per cent of global electricity for the first time |url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/2429430-renewables-supply-30-per-cent-of-global-electricity-for-the-first-time/ |access-date=2024-05-26 |website=New Scientist |language=en-US}} But electricity generation is not moving off coal fast enough to meet climate goals.{{Cite web |title=Coal-Fired Electricity – Analysis |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-fired-electricity |access-date=2023-02-21 |website=IEA |language=en-GB}} Many countries have set dates to stop selling petrol and diesel cars and trucks, but a timetable to stop burning fossil gas has not yet been agreed.{{Cite web |date=2023-02-20 |title=No EU agreement on fossil phase-out text |url=https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2421779-no-eu-agreement-on-fossil-phaseout-text |access-date=2023-02-21 |website=Argus Media |language=en |archive-date=20 February 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230220224005/https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2421779-no-eu-agreement-on-fossil-phaseout-text |url-status=dead }}

Current efforts in fossil fuel phase-out involve replacing fossil fuels with sustainable energy sources in sectors such as transport and heating. Alternatives to fossil fuels include electrification, green hydrogen and biofuel. Phase-out policies include both demand-side and supply-side measures.{{Cite journal|last1=Green |first1=F. |last2=Denniss |first2=R. |year=2018 |title=Cutting with both arms of the scissors: the economic and political case for restrictive supply-side climate policies |journal=Climatic Change |volume=150 |issue=1 |pages=73–87 |doi=10.1007/s10584-018-2162-x |bibcode=2018ClCh..150...73G |s2cid=59374909 |doi-access=free }} Whereas demand-side approaches seek to reduce fossil-fuel consumption, supply-side initiatives seek to constrain production to accelerate the pace of energy transition and reduction in emissions. It has been suggested that laws should be passed to make fossil fuel companies bury the same amount of carbon as they emit.{{Cite web |date=12 January 2023 |title=Fossil fuel producers must be forced to 'take back' carbon, say scientists |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/12/fossil-fuel-producers-must-be-forced-to-take-back-carbon-say-scientists |access-date=12 January 2023 |website=The Guardian |language=en}} The International Energy Agency estimates that in order to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century, global investments in renewable energy must triple by 2030, reaching over $4 trillion annually.{{Cite report |last=Bank |first=European Investment |date=2023-02-02 |title=Energy Overview 2023 |url=https://www.eib.org/en/publications/20220286-energy-overview-2023 |language=EN}}{{Cite web |last=Nations |first=United |title=Renewable energy – powering a safer future |url=https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/raising-ambition/renewable-energy |access-date=2023-03-09 |website=United Nations |language=en}}

As of 2024 global use of fossil fuels is increasing, continuing the trend since 1965, if not earlier.

Scope

{{Climate change mitigation}}

While crude oil and natural gas are also being phased out in chemical processes (e.g. production of new building blocks for plastics) as the circular economy and biobased economy (e.g. bioplastics) are being developed{{Cite web |url=https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1583933814386&uri=COM:2020:98:FIN |title=EU's circular economy action plan released in 2020 A.D. |access-date=23 October 2020 |archive-date=29 October 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201029175239/https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1583933814386&uri=COM:2020:98:FIN |url-status=live }} to reduce plastic pollution, the fossil fuel phase out specifically aims to end the burning of fossil fuels and the consequent production of greenhouse gases. Therefore, attempts to reduce the use of oil and gas in the plastic industry do not form part of fossil fuel phase-out or reduction plans.

Types of fossil fuels

{{Main|Fossil fuel}}

= Coal =

{{main|Coal phase-out}}

{{See also|Beyond Coal}}

{{multiple image | total_width=450

| image1=2000- Retired coal-fired power capacity - Global Energy Monitor.svg |caption1= The annual amount of coal plant capacity being retired increased into the mid-2010s. However, the rate of retirement has since stalled,{{cite web |title=Retired Coal-fired Power Capacity by Country / Global Coal Plant Tracker |url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t3gO35bzcVI8ekq9318jBUq6nd7UADcut4gY3vjHZMM/edit#gid=1751753356 |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230409194508/https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t3gO35bzcVI8ekq9318jBUq6nd7UADcut4gY3vjHZMM/edit#gid=1751753356 |archive-date=9 April 2023 |date=2023 |url-status=live }} — Global Energy Monitor's [https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/summary-tables/ Summary of Tables] ([https://web.archive.org/web/20230408201908/https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/summary-tables/ archive]) and global coal phase-out is not yet compatible with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.{{cite web |author1=Shared attribution: Global Energy Monitor, CREA, E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, SFOC, Kiko Network, CAN Europe, Bangladesh Groups, ACJCE, Chile Sustentable |title=Boom and Bust Coal / Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf |page=3 |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230407125552/https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf |archive-date=7 April 2023 |date=5 April 2023 |url-status=live}}

| image2= 2000- New coal-fired power capacity - Global Energy Monitor.svg |caption2= In parallel with retirement of some coal plant capacity, other coal plants are still being added, though the annual amount of added capacity has been declining since the 2010s.{{cite web |title=New Coal-fired Power Capacity by Country / Global Coal Plant Tracker |url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j35F0WrRJ9dbIJhtRkm8fvPw0Vsf-JV6G95u7gT-DDw/edit#gid=647531100 |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230319120539/https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j35F0WrRJ9dbIJhtRkm8fvPw0Vsf-JV6G95u7gT-DDw/edit#gid=647531100 |archive-date=19 March 2023 |date=2023 |url-status=live}} — Global Energy Monitor's [https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/summary-tables/ Summary of Tables] ([https://web.archive.org/web/20230408201908/https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/summary-tables/ archive])

}}

To meet the Paris Agreement target of keeping global warming to well below {{convert|2|C-change|F-change|1}}, coal use needs to halve from 2020 to 2030.{{Cite web|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-coal-use-must-plummet-this-decade-to-keep-global-warming-below-1-5c|title=Analysis: Why coal use must plummet this decade to keep global warming below 1.5C|date=6 February 2020|website=Carbon Brief|access-date=8 February 2020|archive-date=16 February 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200216161651/https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-coal-use-must-plummet-this-decade-to-keep-global-warming-below-1-5c|url-status=live}}

However, {{As of|2017|lc=y}}, coal supplied over a quarter of the world's primary energy{{Cite web|url=https://www.iea.org/statistics/|title=Statistics|website=iea.org|access-date=28 May 2019|archive-date=28 June 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190628014437/https://www.iea.org/statistics/|url-status=live}} and about 40% of the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.{{cite web|url=https://phys.org/news/2018-12-china-unbridled-export-coal-power_1.html|title=China's unbridled export of coal power imperils climate goals|access-date=7 December 2018|archive-date=6 December 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181206221936/https://phys.org/news/2018-12-china-unbridled-export-coal-power_1.html|url-status=live}} Phasing out coal has short-term health and environmental benefits which exceed the costs,{{Cite web|url=https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/coal-exit-benefits-outweigh-its-costs|title=Coal exit benefits outweigh its costs – PIK Research Portal|website=pik-potsdam.de|access-date=24 March 2020|archive-date=24 March 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200324183652/https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/coal-exit-benefits-outweigh-its-costs|url-status=live}} and without it the 2 °C target in the Paris Agreement cannot be met;{{Cite web|url=http://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Production-Gap-Report-2019-Executive-Summary.pdf|title=The Production Gap Executive Summary|access-date=20 November 2019|archive-date=21 November 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191121014850/http://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Production-Gap-Report-2019-Executive-Summary.pdf|url-status=live}} but some countries still favour coal,{{cite news |title=In coal we trust: Australian voters back PM Morrison's faith in fossil fuel |url=https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-australia-election-energy/in-coal-we-trust-australian-voters-back-pm-morrisons-faith-in-fossil-fuel-idUKKCN1SP06F |work=Reuters |date=19 May 2019 |access-date=28 May 2019 |archive-date=28 May 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190528190059/https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-australia-election-energy/in-coal-we-trust-australian-voters-back-pm-morrisons-faith-in-fossil-fuel-idUKKCN1SP06F |url-status=dead }} and there is much disagreement about how quickly it should be phased out.{{cite journal | last1 = Rockström | first1 = Johan | author-link = Johan Rockström | display-authors = etal | year = 2017 | title = A roadmap for rapid decarbonization | url = http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14498/1/Rockstr%C3%B6mEtAl_2017_Science_A%20roadmap%20for%20rapid%20decarbonization.pdf | journal = Science | volume = 355 | issue = 6331 | pages = 1269–1271 | doi = 10.1126/science.aah3443 | pmid = 28336628 | bibcode = 2017Sci...355.1269R | s2cid = 36453591 | access-date = 11 September 2020 | archive-date = 14 April 2021 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20210414085820/http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14498/1/Rockstr%C3%B6mEtAl_2017_Science_A%20roadmap%20for%20rapid%20decarbonization.pdf | url-status = live }}{{cite news |title=Time for China to Stop Bankrolling Coal |url=https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/time-for-china-to-stop-bankrolling-coal/ |work=The Diplomat |date=29 April 2019 |access-date=28 May 2019 |archive-date=6 June 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190606171528/https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/time-for-china-to-stop-bankrolling-coal/ |url-status=live }}

{{As of|2018}}, 30 countries and many sub-national governments and businesses{{cite web|url=https://poweringpastcoal.org/about/Powering_Past_Coal_Alliance_Members|title=Powering Past Coal Alliance members list|website=Poweringpastcoal.org|access-date=20 September 2018|archive-date=27 March 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190327090900/https://poweringpastcoal.org/about/Powering_Past_Coal_Alliance_Members|url-status=live}} had become members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, each making a declaration to advance the transition away from unabated (abated means with carbon capture and storage (CCS), but almost all power plants are unabated as CCS is so expensive) coal power generation.{{cite web|url=https://poweringpastcoal.org/about/Powering_Past_Coal_Alliance_Declaration|title=Powering Past Coal Alliance declaration|website=Poweringpastcoal.org|access-date=20 September 2018|archive-date=2 February 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190202224054/https://poweringpastcoal.org/about/Powering_Past_Coal_Alliance_Declaration|url-status=live}} {{As of|2019}}, however, the countries which use the most coal have not joined, and some countries continue to build and finance new coal-fired power stations. A just transition from coal is supported by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.{{Cite web|title=The EBRD's just transition initiative|url=https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/just-transition-initiative|website=European Bank for Reconstruction and Development|access-date=4 August 2020|archive-date=26 September 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200926025355/https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/just-transition-initiative|url-status=live}}

In 2019 the UN Secretary General said that countries should stop building new coal power plants from 2020 or face 'total disaster'.{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3075378/un-chief-calls-for-ban-on-new-coal-plants-after-2020|title=UN Secretary-General calls for end to new coal plants after 2020|date=10 May 2019|website=Business Green|language=en|access-date=28 May 2019|archive-date=19 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190519042403/https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3075378/un-chief-calls-for-ban-on-new-coal-plants-after-2020|url-status=live}}

In 2020, although China built some plants, globally more coal power was retired than built: the UN Secretary General has said that OECD countries should stop generating electricity from coal by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040.{{Cite magazine|date=3 December 2020|title=The dirtiest fossil fuel is on the back foot|magazine=The Economist|url=https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/12/03/the-dirtiest-fossil-fuel-is-on-the-back-foot|issn=0013-0613|access-date=1 January 2021|archive-date=19 November 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211119225147/https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/12/03/the-dirtiest-fossil-fuel-is-on-the-back-foot|url-status=live}}

= Oil =

File:Defense.gov photo essay 100421-G-0000L-003.jpg discharges {{convert|4.9|e6oilbbl|m3|abbr=out}}.]]

{{See also|Peak oil}}

Crude oil is refined into fuel oil, diesel and petrol. The refined products are primarily for transportation by conventional cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships. Popular alternatives are human-powered transport, public transport, electric vehicles, and biofuels.{{cite web|url=https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles|title=Clean Vehicles|access-date=11 December 2018|archive-date=15 December 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181215225207/https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles#.XBACe2gvPnE|url-status=live}} The IISD has suggested a plan for oil and gas phase-out,{{Cite web |title=Transitioning Away From Oil and Gas |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/transitioning-away-from-oil-gas |access-date=2024-12-12 |website=International Institute for Sustainable Development |language=en}} but OPEC has called it a fantasy.{{Cite web |title=OPEC Digital Publications - World Oil Outlook |url=https://publications.opec.org/woo |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20241203225555/https://publications.opec.org/woo |archive-date=2024-12-03 |access-date=2024-12-12 |website=publications.opec.org}}

= Natural gas =

{{See also|Natural gas#Environmental effects|Peak gas|}}

File:Gasbohrung.JPG

Natural gas is widely used to generate electricity and has an emission intensity of about 500 g/kWh. Heating is also a major source of carbon dioxide emissions. Leaks are also a large source of atmospheric methane.

In some countries natural gas is being used as a temporary "bridge fuel" to replace coal, in turn to be replaced by renewable sources or a hydrogen economy.{{Cite web|title=COP26 Energy Transition Council launched|url=https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/cop26-energy-transition-council-launched-at-clean-energy-ministerial-side-event|access-date=25 October 2020|website=GOV.UK|date=21 September 2020 |language=en|quote=In the next phase of this partnership, we must focus even more strongly on working with business to accelerate the development of solutions that are critical to achieve net zero, such as energy storage and clean hydrogen production.|archive-date=6 October 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201006163548/https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/cop26-energy-transition-council-launched-at-clean-energy-ministerial-side-event|url-status=live}} However this "bridge fuel" may significantly extend the use of fossil fuel or strand assets, such as gas-fired power plants built in the 2020s, as the average plant life is 35 years.{{cite web|url=https://energycenter.org/sites/default/files/docs/nav/policy/research-and-reports/Natural_Gas_Bridge_Fuel.pdf|title=Natural Gas as a Bridge Fuel : Measuring the Bridge|website=Energycenter.org|year=2016|access-date=9 June 2017|archive-date=24 April 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170424232532/https://energycenter.org/sites/default/files/docs/nav/policy/research-and-reports/Natural_Gas_Bridge_Fuel.pdf|url-status=live}} Although natural gas assets are likely to be stranded later than oil and coal assets, perhaps not until 2050, some investors are concerned by reputational risk.{{Cite web|url=https://www.raconteur.net/business-innovation/stranded-assets|title=Stranded assets are an increasing risk for investors|date=21 March 2019|website=Raconteur|language=en-GB|access-date=26 May 2019|archive-date=10 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190510113023/https://www.raconteur.net/business-innovation/stranded-assets|url-status=live}}

Fossil gas phase-out has progressed in some regions, for example with increasing use of hydrogen by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG){{Cite web|url=https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/interview/gas-network-chief-by-2050-we-assume-co2-emissions-from-energy-will-be-zero/|title=Gas network chief: 'By 2050, we assume CO2 emissions from energy will be zero'|last=Simon|first=Frédéric|date=27 March 2019|website=euractiv.com|language=en-GB|access-date=26 May 2019|archive-date=26 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190526080631/https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/interview/gas-network-chief-by-2050-we-assume-co2-emissions-from-energy-will-be-zero/|url-status=live}} and changes to building regulations to reduce the use of gas heating.{{Cite web|url=https://europeanclimate.org/preparing-dutch-homes-for-a-natural-gas-free-future/|title=Preparing Dutch homes for a natural gas-free future|website=European Climate Foundation|language=en-US|access-date=26 May 2019|archive-date=26 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190526071652/https://europeanclimate.org/preparing-dutch-homes-for-a-natural-gas-free-future/|url-status=dead}}{{Cite web|title=Seattle Bans Natural Gas in New Buildings|url=https://www.natlawreview.com/article/seattle-bans-natural-gas-new-buildings|access-date=6 March 2021|website=The National Law Review|language=en|archive-date=16 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210216173342/https://www.natlawreview.com/article/seattle-bans-natural-gas-new-buildings|url-status=live}} As residential consumers move to electricity gas grid operation and maintenance may become harder to fund.{{Cite news |last=Ambrose |first=Jillian |date=2024-12-12 |title=Labour's 2030 green energy goal faces 'significant challenges', experts warn |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/12/labour-green-energy-goal-uk-energy-research-centre |access-date=2024-12-12 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}

File:Fossilfuelenergyusage1965 2023.png

Reasons

Commonly cited reasons for phasing out fossil fuels are to:

  • reduce deaths and illness caused by air pollution
  • limit climate change
  • reduce fossil fuel subsidies{{Cite web|title=End fossil fuel subsidies and reset the economy – IMF head|url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/end-fossil-fuel-subsidies-economy-imf-georgieva-great-reset-climate/|access-date=27 October 2020|website=World Economic Forum|date=3 June 2020 |language=en|archive-date=28 October 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201028115647/https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/end-fossil-fuel-subsidies-economy-imf-georgieva-great-reset-climate|url-status=live}}{{Cite journal|last1=Krane|first1=Jim|last2=Matar|first2=Walid|last3=Monaldi|first3=Francisco|date=October 2020|title=Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform Since the Pittsburgh G20: A Lost Decade?|url=https://doi.org/10.25613/sk5h-f056|website=Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy|doi=10.25613/sk5h-f056|access-date=27 October 2020|archive-date=19 November 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211119225149/https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-pittsburgh-g20-lost-decade/|url-status=live}}
  • strengthen energy independence – countries with low or no fossil fuel deposits often transition away from fossil fuels to gain energy independently{{citation needed|date=April 2022}}

= Health =

{{See also|Air pollution#Health effects}}

Most of the millions{{cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/12/air-pollution-deaths-are-double-previous-estimates-finds-research|title=Air pollution deaths are double previous estimates, finds research|first=Damian |last=Carrington|date=12 March 2019|access-date=12 March 2019|website=The Guardian|archive-date=4 February 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200204144617/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/12/air-pollution-deaths-are-double-previous-estimates-finds-research|url-status=live}} of premature deaths from air pollution are due to fossil fuels.{{Cite journal|last1=Ramanathan|first1=V.|last2=Haines|first2=A.|last3=Burnett|first3=R. T.|last4=Pozzer|first4=A.|last5=Klingmüller|first5=K.|last6=Lelieveld|first6=J.|date=9 April 2019|title=Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=116|issue=15|pages=7192–7197|doi=10.1073/pnas.1819989116|issn=0027-8424|pmid=30910976|pmc=6462052|bibcode=2019PNAS..116.7192L|doi-access=free}} Pollution may be indoors e.g. from heating and cooking, or outdoors from vehicle exhaust. One estimate is that the proportion is 65% and the number 3.5 million each year.{{Cite web|url=https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2019/rapid-global-switch-renewable-energy-estimated-save-millions-lives-annually|title=Rapid global switch to renewable energy estimated to save millions of lives annually|website=LSHTM|language=en|access-date=2 June 2019|archive-date=2 March 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200302163530/https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2019/rapid-global-switch-renewable-energy-estimated-save-millions-lives-annually|url-status=live}} According to Professor Sir Andy Haines at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine the health benefits of phasing out fossil fuels measured in money (estimated by economists using the value of life for each country) are substantially more than the cost of achieving the 2 °C goal of the Paris Agreement.{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/letters/2019/05/11/letters-to-the-editor|title=Letters to the editor|date=9 May 2019|newspaper=The Economist|access-date=2 June 2019|issn=0013-0613|archive-date=23 June 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190623212422/https://www.economist.com/letters/2019/05/11/letters-to-the-editor|url-status=live}}

= Climate change mitigation =

Fossil-fuel phase-out is the largest part of limiting global warming as fossil fuels account for over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions.{{Cite web|title=Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions: 2019 Report|url=https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/downloads/pbl-2020-trends-in-global-co2-and-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2019-report_4068.pdf|access-date=25 October 2020|archive-date=31 October 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201031232446/https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/downloads/pbl-2020-trends-in-global-co2-and-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2019-report_4068.pdf|url-status=live}} In 2020, the International Energy Agency said that to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the phase-out of fossil fuels would need to "move four times faster".{{Cite web|title=COP26 Energy Transition Council launched|url=https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/cop26-energy-transition-council-launched-at-clean-energy-ministerial-side-event|access-date=25 October 2020|website=GOV.UK|date=21 September 2020 |language=en|quote=The International Energy Agency has told us that to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the global transition to clean power needs to move four times faster than our current pace.|archive-date=6 October 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201006163548/https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/cop26-energy-transition-council-launched-at-clean-energy-ministerial-side-event|url-status=live}} To achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, the vast majority of fossil fuel reserves owned by countries and companies as of 2021 would have to remain in the ground.{{Cite journal|last1=Welsby|first1=Dan|last2=Price|first2=James|last3=Pye|first3=Steve|last4=Ekins|first4=Paul|date=8 September 2021|title=Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world|journal=Nature|language=en|volume=597|issue=7875|pages=230–234|doi=10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8|pmid=34497394|bibcode=2021Natur.597..230W|s2cid=237455006|issn=1476-4687|doi-access=free}}{{Cite web|last=Damian|first=Carrington|date=8 September 2021|title=How much of the world's oil needs to stay in the ground?|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/08/climate-crisis-fossil-fuels-ground|url-status=live|access-date=10 September 2021|website=The Guardian|language=en|archive-date=19 November 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211119225149/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/08/climate-crisis-fossil-fuels-ground}}

= Employment =

{{Expand section|date=October 2020}}

The renewable energy transition can create jobs through the construction of new power plants and the manufacturing of the equipment that they need, as was seen in the case of Germany and the wind power industry.{{Cite journal|last1=Heinrichs|first1=Heidi Ursula|last2=Schumann|first2=Diana|last3=Vögele|first3=Stefan|last4=Biß|first4=Klaus Hendrik|last5=Shamon|first5=Hawal|last6=Markewitz|first6=Peter|last7=Többen|first7=Johannes|last8=Gillessen|first8=Bastian|last9=Gotzens|first9=Fabian|date=1 May 2017|title=Integrated assessment of a phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Germany|journal=Energy|volume=126|pages=285–305|doi=10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.017|bibcode=2017Ene...126..285H }}

=Energy independence=

File:Almost three-quarters of the global population live in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels.png

Countries which lack fossil fuel deposits, particularly coal but also petroleum and natural gas, often cite energy independence in their shift away from fossil fuels.

In Switzerland the decision to electrify virtually the entire railway network was taken in light of the two world wars (during which Switzerland was neutral) when coal imports became increasingly difficult. As Switzerland has ample hydropower resources, electric trains (as opposed to those driven by steam locomotives or diesel) could be run on domestic energy resources, reducing the need for coal imports.{{Cite web|url=https://blog.nationalmuseum.ch/2021/10/elektrifizierung-2-0/|title=Elektrifizierung 2.0|date=October 2021}}{{Cite web |url=https://www.swissinfo.ch/ger/wissen-technik/geschichte_unter-strom---wie-die-schweiz-elektrifiziert-wurde/44217906 |title=Unter Strom – wie die Schweiz elektrifiziert wurde |first=Stefan |last=Boss |website=swissinfo.ch |date=8 July 2018 |lang=de}}

The 1973 oil crisis also led to a shift in energy policy in many places to become (more) independent of fossil fuel imports. In France the government announced an ambitious plan to expand nuclear power which by the end of the 1980s had shifted France's electricity sector almost entirely away from coal gas and oil and towards nuclear power.{{Cite web|url=https://www.aei.org/articles/why-france-has-a-nuclear-powered-economy-and-america-doesnt/|title = Why France has a nuclear-powered economy — and America doesn't {{pipe}} AEI}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5369610|title = France Presses Ahead with Nuclear Power|website = NPR.org| date=May 2006 | last1=Beardsley | first1=Eleanor }}

The trend towards encouraging cycling in the Netherlands{{Cite web|url=https://www.itdp.org/2019/04/26/america-the-netherlands-and-the-oil-crisis-50-years-later/|title=America, the Netherlands, and the Oil Crisis: 50 Years Later|date=26 April 2019}}{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23587916|title=Why is cycling so popular in the Netherlands?|work=BBC News|date=7 August 2013}} and Denmark{{Cite web|url=https://www.welovecycling.com/wide/2014/08/10/danish-solution-oil-crisis/|title = The Danish Solution to the Oil Crisis|date = 10 August 2014}}{{Cite web|url=https://cyclingsolutions.info/embassy/danish-cycling-history/|title = Danish cycling history}} also coincided with the 1973 oil crisis and aimed in part at reducing the need for oil imports in the transportation sector.

Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies

{{Prose|date=June 2024|section}}{{See also|Fossil fuel subsidies#Phase-out}}

Significant fossil fuel subsidies are present in many countries.{{Cite news |last1=Browning |first1=Noah |last2=Kelly |first2=Stephanie |date=8 March 2022 |title=Analysis: Ukraine crisis could boost ballooning fossil fuel subsidies |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-crisis-could-boost-ballooning-fossil-fuel-subsidies-2022-03-08/ |access-date=2 April 2022}} Fossil fuel subsidies in 2019 for consumption totalled US$320 billion{{Cite web|title=Energy subsidies – Topics|url=https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-subsidies|access-date=27 October 2020|website=IEA|language=en-GB|archive-date=26 January 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210126085446/https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-subsidies|url-status=live}} spread over many countries.{{Cite web|title=Data – Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development|url=http://www.oecd.org/fossil-fuels/data/|access-date=27 October 2020|website=oecd.org|language=en|archive-date=10 November 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201110165638/http://www.oecd.org/fossil-fuels/data/|url-status=live}} {{As of|2019}} governments subsidise fossil fuels by about $500 billion per year: however using an unconventional definition of subsidy which includes failing to price greenhouse gas emissions, the International Monetary Fund estimated that fossil fuel subsidies were $5.2 trillion in 2017, which was 6.4% of global GDP.{{Cite web |last=Irfan |first=Umair |date=17 May 2019 |title=Fossil fuels are underpriced by a whopping $5.2 trillion |url=https://www.vox.com/2019/5/17/18624740/fossil-fuel-subsidies-climate-imf |access-date=23 November 2019 |website=Vox |language=en}} Some fossil fuel companies lobby governments.{{Cite news |last=Laville |first=Sandra |date=24 October 2019 |title=Fossil fuel big five 'spent €251m lobbying EU' since 2010 |language=en-GB |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/24/fossil-fuel-big-five-spent-251m-lobbying-european-union-2010-climate-crisis |access-date=23 November 2019 |issn=0261-3077}}

Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is crucial to address the climate crisis.[according to whom?]{{Cite web |title=Breaking up with fossil fuels |url=https://feature.undp.org/breaking-up-with-fossil-fuels |access-date=24 November 2022 |website=UNDP |language=en |archive-date=3 June 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230603162133/https://feature.undp.org/breaking-up-with-fossil-fuels/ |url-status=dead }} It must however be done carefully to avoid protests{{Cite web |last1=Gencsu |first1=Ipek |last2=Walls |first2=Ginette |last3=Picciariello |first3=Angela |last4=Alasia |first4=Ibifuro Joy |date=2 November 2022 |title=Nigeria's energy transition: reforming fossil fuel subsidies and other financing opportunities |url=https://odi.org/en/publications/nigerias-energy-transition-reforming-fossil-fuel-subsidies-and-other-financing-opportunities/ |access-date=24 November 2022 |website=ODI: Think change |language=en-gb}}[according to whom?] and making poor people poorer.{{Cite web |title=How Reforming Fossil Fuel Subsidies Can Go Wrong: A lesson from Ecuador |url=https://www.iisd.org/blog/lesson-ecuador-fossil-fuel-subsidies |access-date=11 November 2019 |website=IISD |language=en}} In most cases, however, low fossil fuel prices benefit wealthier households more than poorer households. So to help poor and vulnerable people, other measures than fossil fuel subsidies would be more targeted.[according to whom?]{{Cite web |last=Carrington |first=Damian |date=6 October 2021 |title=Fossil fuel industry gets subsidies of $11m a minute, IMF finds |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/06/fossil-fuel-industry-subsidies-of-11m-dollars-a-minute-imf-finds |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211006060407/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/06/fossil-fuel-industry-subsidies-of-11m-dollars-a-minute-imf-finds |archive-date=6 October 2021 |access-date=11 December 2021 |website=The Guardian |language=en}} This could in turn increase public support for subsidy reform.{{Cite web |title={{!}} Fossil Fuel Subsidies |url=https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201031045138/https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies |archive-date=31 October 2020 |access-date=27 October 2020 |website=IMF |language=en}}

Economic theory indicates that the optimal policy would be to remove coal mining and burning subsidies and replace them with optimal{{clarify|date=November 2019}} taxes.[according to whom?] Global studies indicate that even without introducing taxes, subsidy and trade barrier removal at a sectoral level would improve efficiency and reduce environmental damage.{{cite book |author=Barker |page=568 |url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/357.htm |title=Climate Change 2001: IPCC Third Assessment Report Working Group III: Mitigation |publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |year=2001 |contribution=9.2.1.2 Reducing Subsidies in the Energy Sector |display-authors=etal |access-date=1 September 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090805210134/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar///wg3/357.htm |archive-date=5 August 2009 |url-status=dead}} Removal of these subsidies would substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and create jobs in renewable energy.{{Cite web |date=7 June 2019 |title=Fossil Fuel to Clean Energy Subsidy Swaps: How to pay for an energy revolution |url=https://www.iisd.org/library/fossil-fuel-clean-energy-subsidy-swap |access-date=23 November 2019 |website=IISD |language=en}} The IMF estimated in 2023 that removal of fossil fuel subsidies would limit global heating to the Paris goal of substantially less than 2 °C.{{Cite web |title=Fossil Fuel Subsidies |url=https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies |access-date=2024-01-02 |website=IMF |language=en |quote=Raising fuel prices to their fully efficient levels reduces projected global fossil fuel CO2 emissions 43 percent below baseline levels in 2030—or 34 percent below 2019 emissions. This reduction is in line with the 25-50 percent reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions below 2019 levels needed by 2030 to be on track with containing global warming to the Paris goal of 1.5-2C.}}

The actual effects of removing fossil fuel subsidies would depend heavily on the type of subsidy removed and the availability and economics of other energy sources.{{Obsolete source|date=January 2024}} There is also the issue of carbon leakage, where removal of a subsidy to an energy-intensive industry could lead to a shift in production to another country with less regulation, and thus to a net increase in global emissions.

In developed countries, energy costs are low and heavily subsidised, whereas in developing countries, the poor pay high costs for low-quality services.{{Cite book |url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/913742250 |title=Sustainable Access to Energy in the Global South: Essential Technologies and Implementation Approaches |year=2015 |editor-last1=Hostettler |editor-first1=Silvia |editor-last2=Gadgil |editor-first2=Ashok |editor-last3=Hazboun |editor-first3=Eileen |publisher=Springer |location=Cham |isbn=978-3-319-20209-9 |oclc=913742250}}

In 2009, studies have put forward a plan to power 100% of the world's energy with wind, hydroelectric, and solar power by the year 2030.Jacobson, M.Z. and Delucchi, M.A. (November 2009) [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030 "A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables" (originally published as "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030")] Scientific American 301(5):58–65Jacobson, M.Z. (2009) [https://web.archive.org/web/20100424234910/http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/PDF%20files/ReviewSolGW09.pdf "Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security"] Energy and Environmental Science 2:148-73 {{doi|10.1039/b809990c}} (review) It recommends transfer of energy subsidies from fossil fuel to renewable, and a price on carbon reflecting its cost for flood, cyclone, hurricane, drought, and related extreme weather expenses.

Excluding subsidies, the levelised cost of electricity from new large-scale solar power in India and China has been below existing coal-fired power stations since 2021.{{Cite web |last=Runyon |first=Jennifer |date=23 June 2021 |title=Report: New solar is cheaper to build than to run existing coal plants in China, India and most of Europe |url=https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/solar/report-its-now-cheaper-to-build-new-solar-than-to-run-existing-coal-plants-in-china-india-and-most-of-europe/ |website=Renewable Energy World |language=en-US}}

A study by Rice University Center for Energy Studies suggested the following steps for countries:

  1. Countries should commit to a specific time frame for a full phaseout of implicit and explicit fossil fuel subsidies.
  2. Clarify the language on subsidy reform to remove ambiguous terminology.
  3. Seek formal legislation in affected countries that codifies reform pathways and reduces opportunities for backsliding.
  4. Publish transparent formulas for market-linked pricing, and adhere to a regular schedule for price adjustments.
  5. Phase-in full reforms in a sequence of gradual steps. Increasing prices gradually but on a defined schedule signals intent to consumers while allowing time to invest in energy efficiency to partially offset the increases.
  6. Aspire to account for externalities over time by imposing a fee or tax on fossil energy products and services, and eliminating preferences for fossil fuels that remain embedded in the tax code.
  7. Use direct cash transfers to maintain benefits for poor segments of society rather than preserving subsidised prices for vulnerable socioeconomic groups.
  8. Launch a comprehensive public communications campaign.
  9. Any remaining fossil fuel subsidies should be clearly budgeted at full international prices and paid for by the national treasury.
  10. Document price and emissions changes with reporting requirements.

Phasing-out specific processes

{{See|Coal phase-out}}

= Phase-out of fossil fuel power plants =

{{See also|Energy transition|100% renewable energy}}

File:2015- Investment in clean energy - IEA.svg

File:20210125 Europe Power Sector - Renewables vs Fossil Fuels - Climate change.svg

Energy efficiency is complementary to the use of sustainable energy sources, when phasing-out fossil fuels.

= Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles =

{{Main|Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles}}

File:2015- Passenger electric vehicle (EV) annual sales - BloombergNEF.svg

Many countries and cities have introduced bans on the sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, requiring all new cars to be electric vehicles or otherwise powered by clean, non-emitting sources.{{cite web|url=https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Survey-on-Global-Activities-to-Phase-Out-ICE-Vehicles-FINAL-Oct-3-2018.pdf|title=Survey of Global Activity to Phase Out Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles|last=Burch|first=Isabella|date=September 2018|website=Climateprotection.org|access-date=23 January 2019|archive-date=24 July 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190724114437/https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Survey-on-Global-Activities-to-Phase-Out-ICE-Vehicles-FINAL-Oct-3-2018.pdf|url-status=dead}}{{cite web|url=https://www.ictsd.org/sites/default/files/research/international-trade-governance-and-sustainable-transport-mahesh-sugathan.pdf|title=International Trade Governance and Sustainable Transport: The Expansion of Electric Vehicles|date=December 2017|website=International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development|access-date=23 January 2019|archive-date=31 July 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200731234300/https://www.ictsd.org/sites/default/files/research/international-trade-governance-and-sustainable-transport-mahesh-sugathan.pdf|url-status=dead}} Such bans include the United Kingdom by 2035{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/25/britain-to-ban-sale-of-all-diesel-and-petrol-cars-and-vans-from-2040|title=Britain to ban sale of all diesel and petrol cars and vans from 2040|last1=Asthana|first1=Anushka|last2=Taylor|first2=Matthew|date=25 July 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=27 January 2019|archive-date=26 January 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190126174233/https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/25/britain-to-ban-sale-of-all-diesel-and-petrol-cars-and-vans-from-2040|url-status=live}} and Norway by 2025. Many transit authorities are working to purchase only electric buses while also restricting use of ICE vehicles in the city center to limit air pollution. Many US states have a zero-emissions vehicle mandate, incrementally requiring a certain per cent of cars sold to be electric. The German term {{Lang|de|Verkehrswende}} ("traffic transition" analogous to {{Lang|de|Energiewende}}, energetic transition) calls for a shift from combustion powered road transport to bicycles, walking and rail transport and the replacement of remaining road vehicles with electric traction.

Biofuels, in the form of liquid fuels derived from plant materials, are entering the market. However, many of the biofuels that are currently being supplied have been criticised for their adverse impacts on the natural environment, food security, and land use.The Royal Society (January 2008). Sustainable biofuels: prospects and challenges, {{ISBN|978-0-85403-662-2}}, p. 61.Gordon Quaiattini. [https://archive.today/20130102041427/http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=e08c8e19-4a95-491c-9386-d30afeab5cdf&sponsor= Biofuels are part of the solution] Canada.com, 25 April 2008. Retrieved 23 December 2009.

= Oil fuel phase-out =

File:Hubbert curve.svg, plotting crude oil production of a region over time]]

File:World energy consumption, 1970-2025, EIA.png

The mitigation of peak oil is the attempt to delay the date and minimize the social and economic effects of peak oil by reducing the consumption of and reliance on petroleum.{{Cn|date=February 2023}} By reducing petroleum consumption, mitigation efforts seek to favorably change the shape of the Hubbert curve, which is the graph of real oil production over time predicted by Hubbert peak theory. The peak of this curve is known as peak oil, and by changing the shape of the curve, the timing of the peak in oil production is affected. An analysis by the author of the Hirsch report showed that while the shape of the oil production curve can be affected by mitigation efforts, mitigation efforts are also affected by the shape of Hubbert curve.{{cite web

|url=http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/Peak_Shape_Study.pdf

|title=The Shape of World Oil Peaking: Learning From Experience

|author=Robert L. Hirsch

|access-date=2007-06-21

|archive-date=2007-06-21

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070621143225/http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/Peak_Shape_Study.pdf

|url-status=live

}}

For the most part, mitigation involves fuel conservation, and the use of alternative and renewable energy sources. The development of unconventional oil resources can extend the supply of petroleum,{{cite web

|url=http://www.aspo-usa.com/fall2006/presentations/pdf/Bartis_J_Boston_2006.pdf

|title=Unconventional Liquid Fuels Overview. 2006 Boston World Oil Conference

|author=Jim Bartis, RAND Corporation

|publisher=Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas - USA

|year=2006

|access-date=2007-06-28

|url-status=usurped

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110721161801/http://www.aspo-usa.com/fall2006/presentations/pdf/Bartis_J_Boston_2006.pdf

|archive-date=2011-07-21

}}

but does not reduce consumption.

Historically, world oil consumption data show that mitigation efforts during the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks lowered oil consumption, while general recessions since the 1970s have had no effect on curbing the oil consumption until 2007.{{citation needed|date = November 2016}} In the United States, oil consumption declines in reaction to high prices.{{cite news

| url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270

| title=Americans Using Less Gasoline

| publisher=NPR

| date=March 5, 2008

| author=Frank Langfitt

| access-date=April 2, 2018

| archive-date=August 27, 2009

| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090827053651/http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270

| url-status=live

}}{{cite magazine

| url=https://www.usnews.com/blogs/beyond-the-barrel/2008/3/4/oil-demand-is-dropping-but-prices-arent.html

| title=Oil Demand Is Dropping, but Prices Aren't

| magazine=U.S. News & World Report

| date=March 4, 2008

| author=Marianne Lavelle

| access-date=September 5, 2017

| archive-date=October 12, 2008

| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081012021002/http://www.usnews.com/blogs/beyond-the-barrel/2008/3/4/oil-demand-is-dropping-but-prices-arent.html

| url-status=live

}}

Key questions for mitigation are the viability of methods, the roles of government and private sector and how early these solutions are implemented.{{cite web

|url=https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/02/20060220-1.html

|title=President Discusses Advanced Energy Initiative In Milwaukee

|access-date=2017-09-05

|archive-date=2017-10-05

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171005203058/https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/02/20060220-1.html

|url-status=live

}}

{{cite web

|url=http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/vig_06/general_06/pdf/proposition_87/entire_prop87.pdf

|title=Proposition 87

|url-status=dead

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070614050616/http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/vig_06/general_06/pdf/proposition_87/entire_prop87.pdf

|archive-date=2007-06-14

}} The responses to such questions and steps taken towards mitigation may determine whether or not the lifestyle of a society can be maintained, and may affect the population capacity of the planet.

The most effective method of mitigating peak oil is to use renewable or alternative energy sources in place of petroleum.

Because most oil is consumed for transportation{{Cite web |url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/figure_33.html |title=EIA - International Energy Outlook 2007 - Figure 33 |access-date=2007-08-24 |archive-date=2007-10-12 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071012044344/http://eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/figure_33.html |url-status=live }} most mitigation discussions revolve around transportation issues.

== Mobile applications ==

{{See also|Biofuel|Hydrogen economy|Methanol economy|Hydrogen-powered aircraft}}

Due to its high energy density and ease of handling, oil has a unique role as a transportation fuel. There are, however, a number of possible alternatives. Among the biofuels the use of bioethanol and biodiesel is already established to some extent in some countries.

The use of hydrogen fuel is another alternative under development in various countries, alongside, hydrogen vehicles{{cite web|url=http://www.hydrogenhighway.ca.gov|title=California Hydrogen Activities|date=November 26, 2012|work=California Hydrogen Highway|publisher=California Environmental Protection Agency|access-date=9 September 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130123233053/http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/hydrogen/hydrogen.htm|archive-date=2013-01-23}} though hydrogen is actually an energy storage medium, not a primary energy source, and consequently the use of a non-petroleum source would be required to extract the hydrogen for use. Though hydrogen is currently outperformed in terms of cost and efficiency by battery powered vehicles{{Cite journal |last1=Spiryagin |first1=Maksym |last2=Dixon |first2=Roger |last3=Oldknow |first3=Kevin |last4=Cole |first4=Colin |date=2021-09-01 |title=Preface to special issue on hybrid and hydrogen technologies for railway operations |journal=Railway Engineering Science |language=en |volume=29 |issue=3 |pages=211 |doi=10.1007/s40534-021-00254-x |s2cid=240522190 |issn=2662-4753|doi-access=free |bibcode=2021RailE..29..211S }}{{Citation needed|date=August 2009}}, there are applications where it would come in useful. Short haul ferries and very cold climates are two examples. Hydrogen fuel cells are about a third as efficient as batteries and double the efficiency of petrol vehicles.

== Alternative aviation fuel ==

An Airbus A380 flew on alternative fuel for the first time on 1 February 2008.{{cite web |last1=Fried |first1=Rona |title=Airbus: World's First Flight Fueled by Alternative Fuel |url=https://www.sustainablebusiness.com/2008/02/airbus-world39s-first-flight-fueled-by-alternative-fuel-42015/ |website=Sustainable Business |access-date=25 November 2024 |date=5 February 2008}} At that stage Boeing also had plans to use alternative fuel on the 747.{{Cite web |url=http://www.gizmag.com/go/8133/ |title=Boeing announce plans to accelerate bio-jet fuel development |date=8 October 2007 |access-date=2008-07-02 |archive-date=2008-07-06 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080706051314/http://www.gizmag.com/go/8133/ |url-status=live }} Because some biofuels such as ethanol contains less energy, more "tankstops" might be necessary for such planes.

The US Air Force is currently in the process of certifying its entire fleet to run on a 50/50 blend of synthetic fuel derived from the Fischer–Tropsch process and JP-8 jet fuel.{{cite web |url=https://www.safie.hq.af.mil/News/story/id/123064095/ |title=SECAF certifies synthetic fuel blends for B-52H |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303181957/http://www.safie.hq.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123064095 |archive-date=2016-03-03}}

Studies

{{multiple image

| title = Reduction in fossil fuel capacity compared to renewables

| total_width = 450

| image1 = 2010- Power capacity by technology - Dec 2022 International Energy Agency.svg

| caption1 = Renewable energy sources, especially solar photovoltaic and wind power, are providing an increasing share of power capacity.{{cite web |title=Share of cumulative power capacity by technology, 2010-2027 |url=https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/share-of-cumulative-power-capacity-by-technology-2010-2027 |website=IEA.org |publisher=International Energy Agency (IEA) |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230204170647/https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/share-of-cumulative-power-capacity-by-technology-2010-2027 |archive-date=4 February 2023 |date=5 December 2022 |url-status=live}} Source states "Fossil fuel capacity from IEA (2022), World Energy Outlook 2022. IEA. Licence: CC BY 4.0."

| image2 = 2010- Fossil fuels vs Wind + Solar - electricity generation.svg

| caption2 = In 2023, electricity generation from wind and solar sources was projected to exceed 30% by 2030, as fossil fuels' use continues to decline.{{cite web |last1=Bond |first1=Kingsmill |last2=Butler-Sloss |first2=Sam |last3=Lovins |first3=Amory |last4=Speelman |first4=Laurens |last5=Topping |first5=Nigel |title=Report / 2023 / X-Change: Electricity / On track for disruption |publisher=Rocky Mountain Institute |url=https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-electricity/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230713171138/https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-electricity/ |archive-date=13 July 2023 |date=13 June 2023 |url-status=live }}

}}

File:20211104 Percentage of electricity from fossil fuels, nuclear, renewables - biggest fossil fuel emitters.svg

In 2015, Greenpeace and Climate Action Network Europe released a report highlighting the need for an active phase-out of coal-fired generation across Europe. Their analysis derived from a database of 280 coal plants and included emissions data from official EU registries.{{cite book |last1=Jones |first1=Dave |url=https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/end-of-era-coal-phase-out-plan-20151204.pdf |title=End of an era: why every European country needs a coal phase-out plan |last2=Gutmann |first2=Kathrin |date=December 2015 |publisher=Greenpeace and Climate Action Network Europe |location=London, UK and Brussels, Belgium |access-date=14 September 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161017003229/https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/end-of-era-coal-phase-out-plan-20151204.pdf |archive-date=17 October 2016 |url-status=live}}

A 2016 report by Oil Change International, concludes that the carbon emissions embedded in the coal, oil, and gas in currently working mines and fields, assuming that these run to the end of their working lifetimes, will take the world to just beyond the 2 °C limit contained in the 2015 Paris Agreement and even further from the 1.5 °C goal.{{cite news |last=Mathiesen |first=Karl |date=23 September 2016 |title=Existing coal, oil and gas fields will blow carbon budget{{snd}} study |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/23/existing-coal-oil-and-gas-fields-will-blow-carbon-budget-study |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160923185100/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/23/existing-coal-oil-and-gas-fields-will-blow-carbon-budget-study |archive-date=23 September 2016 |access-date=28 September 2016 |work=The Guardian |location=London, UK}}{{cite press release |first=David |last=Turnbull |title=Fossil Fuel Expansion Has Reached the Sky's Limit: Report |url=http://priceofoil.org/2016/09/22/release-fossil-fuel-expansion-has-reached-the-skys-limit-report/ |location=Washington DC, US |publisher=Oil Change International |date=22 September 2016 |access-date=27 September 2016 |archive-date=23 September 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160923183719/http://priceofoil.org/2016/09/22/release-fossil-fuel-expansion-has-reached-the-skys-limit-report/ |url-status=live}}

{{cite book |last=Muttitt |first=Greg |url=http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2016/09/OCI_the_skys_limit_2016_FINAL_2.pdf |title=The sky's limit: why the Paris climate goals require a managed decline of fossil fuel production |date=September 2016 |publisher=Oil Change International |location=Washington DC, US |access-date=27 September 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200120113231/http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2016/09/OCI_the_skys_limit_2016_FINAL_2.pdf |archive-date=20 January 2020 |url-status=live}} The report observes that "one of the most powerful climate policy levers is also the simplest: stop digging for more fossil fuels".{{rp|5}}

In 2016, the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and 11 other NGOs released a report on the impact of building new coal-fired power plants in countries where a significant proportion of the population lacks access to electricity. The report concludes that, on the whole, building coal-fired power plants does little to help the poor and may make them poorer. Moreover, wind and solar generation are beginning to challenge coal on cost.{{cite news |last=Nuccitelli |first=Dana |date=31 October 2016 |title=Coal doesn't help the poor; it makes them poorer |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/oct/31/coal-doesnt-help-the-poor-it-makes-them-poorer |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200109114722/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/oct/31/coal-doesnt-help-the-poor-it-makes-them-poorer |archive-date=9 January 2020 |access-date=31 October 2016 |work=The Guardian |location=London, United Kingdom |issn=0261-3077}}{{cite web |last1=Granoff |first1=Ilmi |last2=Hogarth |first2=James Ryan |last3=Wykes |first3=Sarah |last4=Doig |first4=Alison |date=October 2016 |title=Beyond coal: scaling up clean energy to fight global poverty |url=https://www.odi.org/publications/10589-beyond-coal-scaling-clean-energy-fight-global-poverty |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161101101856/https://www.odi.org/publications/10589-beyond-coal-scaling-clean-energy-fight-global-poverty |archive-date=1 November 2016 |access-date=31 October 2016 |work=Overseas Development Institute (ODI) |location=London, United Kingdom}}{{cite book |last1=Granoff |first1=Ilmi |url=https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/10964.pdf |title=Beyond coal: Scaling up clean energy to fight global poverty — Position paper |last2=Hogarth |first2=James Ryan |last3=Wykes |first3=Sarah |last4=Doig |first4=Alison |date=October 2016 |publisher=Overseas Development Institute (ODI) |location=London, United Kingdom |access-date=31 October 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170202000927/https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/10964.pdf |archive-date=2 February 2017 |url-status=dead}}

A 2018 study in Nature Energy, suggests that 10 countries in Europe could completely phase out coal-fired electricity generation with their current infrastructure, whilst the United States and Russia could phase out at least 30%.{{Cite journal |last1=Wilson |first1=IAG |last2=Staffell |first2=I |year=2018 |title=Rapid fuel switching from coal to natural gas through effective carbon pricing |url=http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/127309/3/Rapid%20fuel%20switching%20for%20WRRO.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Nature Energy |volume=3 |issue=5 |pages=365–372 |bibcode=2018NatEn...3..365W |doi=10.1038/s41560-018-0109-0 |s2cid=169652126 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190501100628/http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/127309/3/Rapid%20fuel%20switching%20for%20WRRO.pdf |archive-date=1 May 2019 |access-date=4 July 2019}}

In 2020, the Fossil Fuel Cuts Database provided the first global account of supply-side initiatives to constrain fossil fuel production.{{Cite journal |last1=Gaulin |first1=N. |last2=Le Billon |first2=P. |year=2020 |title=Climate change and fossil fuel production cuts: Assessing global supply-side constraints and policy implications |url=https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2020.1725409 |url-status=live |journal=Climate Policy |volume=20 |issue=8 |pages=888–901 |bibcode=2020CliPo..20..888G |doi=10.1080/14693062.2020.1725409 |s2cid=214511488 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211103005126/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2020.1725409 |archive-date=3 November 2021 |access-date=3 November 2021|url-access=subscription }} The latest update of the database recorded 1967 initiatives implemented between 1988 and October 2021 in 110 countries across seven major types of supply-side approaches (Divestment, n=1201; Blockades, n= 374; Litigation, n= 192; Moratoria and Bans, n= 146; Production subsidies removal, n=31; Carbon tax on fossil fuel production, n=16; Emissions Trading Schemes, n= 7).

The GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses assesses how the geopolitical position of 156 countries may change if the world fully transitions to renewable energy resources. Former fossil fuel exporters are expected to lose power, while the positions of former fossil fuel importers and countries rich in renewable energy resources is expected to strengthen.{{Cite journal |last1=Overland |first1=Indra |last2=Bazilian |first2=Morgan |last3=Ilimbek Uulu |first3=Talgat |last4=Vakulchuk |first4=Roman |last5=Westphal |first5=Kirsten |year=2019 |title=The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition |journal=Energy Strategy Reviews |language=en |volume=26 |pages=100406 |doi=10.1016/j.esr.2019.100406 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2019EneSR..2600406O |hdl-access=free |hdl=11250/2634876}}

Multiple decarbonisation plans that get to zero CO2 emissions have been presented.

A Guardian investigation showed in 2022, that big fossil fuel firms continue to plan huge investments in new fossil fuel production projects that would drive the climate past internationally agreed temperature limits.{{Cite web |last=Taylor |first=Damian Carrington Matthew |date=11 May 2022 |title=Revealed: the 'carbon bombs' set to trigger catastrophic climate breakdown |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas |access-date=5 July 2022 |website=The Guardian |language=en}}

=Renewable energy potentials=

In June 2021 Dr Sven Teske and Dr Sarah Niklas from the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney found that "existing coal, oil and gas production puts the world on course to overshoot Paris climate targets." In co-operation with the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative they published a report entitled, Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy: An orderly wind down of coal, oil, and gas to meet the Paris Agreement. It analyses global renewable energy potential, and finds that "every region on Earth can replace fossil fuels with renewable energy to keep warming below 1.5 °C and provide reliable energy access to all."{{cite web |last1=Niklas |first1=Sarah |last2=Teske |first2=Sven |date=June 2021 |title=Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy: An orderly wind down of coal, oil, and gas to meet the Paris Agreement |url=https://indd.adobe.com/view/e0092323-3e91-4e5c-95e0-098ee42f9dd1 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210811134422/https://indd.adobe.com/view/e0092323-3e91-4e5c-95e0-098ee42f9dd1 |archive-date=11 August 2021 |access-date=28 July 2021 |publisher=Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney |pages=6 |quote-page=6}}

=Assessment of extraction prevention responsibilities=

In September 2021, the first scientific assessment of the minimum amount of fossil fuels that would need to be secured from extraction per region as well as globally, to allow for a 50% probability of limiting global warming by 2050 to 1.5 °C was provided.{{cite news |last1=Ramirez |first1=Rachel |title=Majority of remaining fossil fuels must stay in the ground to limit climate crisis below critical threshold, study shows |url=https://us.cnn.com/2021/09/08/us/fossil-fuel-budget-climate-change-study/index.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211018085911/https://us.cnn.com/2021/09/08/us/fossil-fuel-budget-climate-change-study/index.html |archive-date=18 October 2021 |access-date=18 October 2021 |publisher=CNN}}{{cite journal |last1=Welsby |first1=Dan |last2=Price |first2=James |last3=Pye |first3=Steve |last4=Ekins |first4=Paul |date=September 2021 |title=Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=597 |issue=7875 |pages=230–234 |bibcode=2021Natur.597..230W |doi=10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8 |issn=1476-4687 |pmid=34497394 |s2cid=237455006 |doi-access=free}}

Challenges

File:2008- Oil and gas industry global net income - IEA.svg

File:2007- Profits of energy companies (annual) - stacked bar chart.svg, energy company profits increased with greater revenues from higher fuel prices resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, falling debt levels, tax write-downs of projects shut down in Russia, and backing off from earlier plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.{{cite news |last1=Bousso |first1=Ron |date=8 February 2023 |title=Big Oil doubles profits in blockbuster 2022 |url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/big-oil-doubles-profits-blockbuster-2022-2023-02-08/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230331215451/https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/big-oil-doubles-profits-blockbuster-2022-2023-02-08/ |archive-date=31 March 2023 |work=Reuters}} ● Details for 2020 from the more detailed diagram in {{cite news |last1=King |first1=Ben |date=12 February 2023 |title=Why are BP, Shell, and other oil giants making so much money right now? |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64583982 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230422164652/https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64583982 |archive-date=22 April 2023 |agency=BBC}} Record profits sparked public calls for windfall taxes.]]

The phase-out of fossil fuels involves many challenges, and one of them is the reliance that the world currently has on them. In 2014, fossil fuels provided over 80% of the primary energy consumption of the world.{{cite web |year=2016 |title=Key World Energy Statistics |url=https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2016.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161026120942/https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2016.pdf |archive-date=26 October 2016 |access-date=6 May 2017 |publisher=International Energy Agency}}

Fossil fuel phase-out may lead to an increment in electricity prices, because of the new investments needed to replace their share in the electricity mix with alternative energy sources.{{Cite journal |last1=Green |first1=R |last2=Staffell |first2=I |year=2016 |title=Electricity in Europe: exiting fossil fuels? |journal=Oxford Review of Economic Policy |volume=32 |issue=2 |pages=282–303 |doi=10.1093/oxrep/grw003 |doi-access=free |hdl-access=free |hdl=10044/1/29487}}{{Obsolete source|date=September 2023}}

Another impact of a phase-out of fossil fuels is in employment. In the case of employment in the fossil fuel industry, a phase-out is logically undesired, therefore, people employed in the industry will usually oppose any measures that put their industries under scrutiny. Endre Tvinnereim and Elisabeth Ivarsflaten studied the relationship between employment in the fossil fuel industry with the support to climate change policies. They proposed that one opportunity for displaced drilling employments in the fossil fuel industry could be in the geothermal energy industry. This was suggested as a result of their conclusion: people and companies in the fossil fuel industry will likely oppose measures that endanger their employment, unless they have other stronger alternatives.{{Cite journal |last1=Tvinnereim |first1=Endre |last2=Ivarsflaten |first2=Elisabeth |date=1 September 2016 |title=Fossil fuels, employment, and support for climate policies |journal=Energy Policy |volume=96 |pages=364–371 |doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.052 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2016EnPol..96..364T }} This can be extrapolated to political interests, that can push against the phase-out of fossil fuels initiative.{{Cite web |title=The West's Nuclear Mistake |url=https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-west-s-nuclear-mistake/ar-AARBhm0?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531 |access-date=8 December 2021 |publisher=MSN}}{{cite journal |last1=Cardenas |first1=IC |title=Mitigation of climate change. Risk and uncertainty research gaps in the specification of mitigation actions |journal=Environmental Science & Policy |date=2024 |volume=162 |issue=December 2024 |page=103912 |doi=10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103912 |doi-access=free }} One example is how the vote of United States Congress members is related to the preeminence of fossil fuel industries in their respective states.{{Cite journal |last1=Cragg |first1=Michael I. |last2=Zhou |first2=Yuyu |last3=Gurney |first3=Kevin |last4=Kahn |first4=Matthew E. |date=1 April 2013 |title=Carbon Geography: The Political Economy of Congressional Support for Legislation Intended to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Production |url=http://www.nber.org/papers/w14963.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Economic Inquiry |volume=51 |issue=2 |pages=1640–1650 |doi=10.1111/j.1465-7295.2012.00462.x |s2cid=8804524 |ssrn=2225690 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180602023010/http://www.nber.org/papers/w14963.pdf |archive-date=2 June 2018 |access-date=29 August 2019}}

Other challenges include ensuring sustainable recycling, sourcing of the required materials, disruptions of existing power structures, managing variable renewable energy, developing optimal national transition policies, transforming transportation infrastructure and responsibilities of fossil fuel extraction prevention. There is active research and development on such issues.{{cite web |title=Integrating Variable Renewable Energy: Challenges and Solutions |url=https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/60451.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210521061433/https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/60451.pdf |archive-date=21 May 2021 |access-date=8 November 2021 |publisher=National Renewable Energy Laboratory}}{{cite journal |last1=Rempel |first1=Arthur |last2=Gupta |first2=Joyeeta |date=1 October 2021 |title=Fossil fuels, stranded assets and COVID-19: Imagining an inclusive & transformative recovery |journal=World Development |language=en |volume=146 |pages=105608 |doi=10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105608 |issn=0305-750X |pmc=9758387 |pmid=36569408 |s2cid=237663504}}{{cite journal |last1=Heath |first1=Garvin A. |last2=Silverman |first2=Timothy J. |last3=Kempe |first3=Michael |last4=Deceglie |first4=Michael |last5=Ravikumar |first5=Dwarakanath |last6=Remo |first6=Timothy |last7=Cui |first7=Hao |last8=Sinha |first8=Parikhit |last9=Libby |first9=Cara |last10=Shaw |first10=Stephanie |last11=Komoto |first11=Keiichi |last12=Wambach |first12=Karsten |last13=Butler |first13=Evelyn |last14=Barnes |first14=Teresa |last15=Wade |first15=Andreas |date=July 2020 |title=Research and development priorities for silicon photovoltaic module recycling to support a circular economy |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0645-2 |url-status=live |journal=Nature Energy |language=en |volume=5 |issue=7 |pages=502–510 |bibcode=2020NatEn...5..502H |doi=10.1038/s41560-020-0645-2 |issn=2058-7546 |s2cid=220505135 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210821071335/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0645-2 |archive-date=21 August 2021 |access-date=26 June 2021|url-access=subscription }}

According to the people present at COP27 in Egypt, Saudi Arabian representatives pushed to block a call for the world to burn less oil. After objections from Saudi Arabia and a few other oil producers, summit's final statement failed to include a call for nations to phase out fossil fuels. In March 2022, at a United Nations meeting with climate scientists, Saudi Arabia, together with Russia, pushed to delete a reference to "human-induced climate change" from an official document, disputing the scientifically established fact that the burning of fossil fuels by humans is the main driver of the climate crisis.{{cite news |last1=Tabuchi |first1=Hiroko |author-link=Hiroko Tabuchi |date=21 November 2022 |title=Inside the Saudi Strategy to Keep the World Hooked on Oil |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/21/climate/saudi-arabia-aramco-oil-solar-climate.html |accessdate=21 November 2022 |work=The New York Times}}

Overall fossil fuels are still being used, in ever increasing quantities, at least up until 2023.{{cite web | url=https://earth.org/fossil-fuel-accounted-for-82-of-global-energy-mix-in-2023-amid-record-consumption-report/ | title=Fossil Fuel Comprised 82% of Global Energy Mix in 2023 | date=26 June 2024 }}

Major initiatives and legislation

= China =

China has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2060, which would need a just transition for over 3 million workers in the coal-mining and power industry.{{Cite journal |last=Mallapaty |first=Smriti |date=19 October 2020 |title=How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=586 |issue=7830 |pages=482–483 |bibcode=2020Natur.586..482M |doi=10.1038/d41586-020-02927-9 |pmid=33077972 |doi-access=free}} It is not yet clear whether China aims to phase-out all fossil fuel use by that date or whether a small proportion will still be in use with the carbon captured and stored. In 2021, coal mining was ordered to run at maximum capacity.{{cite news |date=15 December 2021 |title=China coal output hits record in Nov to ensure winter supply |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-nov-coal-output-strikes-new-high-ensure-winter-supply-2021-12-15/ |work=Reuters}}

= European Union =

At the end of 2019, the European Union launched its European Green Deal.

It included:

  • a revision of the Energy Taxation Directive which is looking closely at fossil fuel subsidies and tax exemptions (aviation, shipping)
  • a circular economy action plan,{{Cite web |title=A new circular economy action plan |url=https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1583933814386&uri=COM:2020:98:FIN |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201029175239/https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1583933814386&uri=COM:2020:98:FIN |archive-date=29 October 2020 |access-date=23 October 2020}}
  • a review and possible revision (where needed) of the all relevant climate-related policy instruments, including the Emissions Trading System
  • a sustainable and smart mobility strategy
  • potential carbon tariffs for countries that don't curtail their greenhouse gas pollution at the same rate.{{Cite web |title=Coal Information Overview 2019 |url=https://webstore.iea.org/login?ReturnUrl=%2fdownload%2fdirect%2f2542%3ffileName%3dCoal_Information_2019_Overview.pdf&fileName=Coal_Information_2019_Overview.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200516134429/https://webstore.iea.org/login?ReturnUrl=%2fdownload%2fdirect%2f2542%3ffileName%3dCoal_Information_2019_Overview.pdf&fileName=Coal_Information_2019_Overview.pdf |archive-date=16 May 2020 |access-date=28 March 2020 |publisher=International Energy Agency |quote=peak production in 2013}} The mechanism to achieve this is called the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).{{Cite web |title=Initiative |url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12228-Carbon-Border-Adjustment-Mechanism |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201021062402/https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12228-Carbon-Border-Adjustment-Mechanism |archive-date=21 October 2020 |access-date=23 October 2020}}

It also leans on Horizon Europe, to play a pivotal role in leveraging national public and private investments. Through partnerships with industry and member States, it will support research and innovation on transport technologies, including batteries, clean hydrogen, low-carbon steel making, circular bio-based sectors and the built environment.{{Cite web |title=COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS |url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/european-green-deal-communication_en.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201024175024/https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/european-green-deal-communication_en.pdf |archive-date=24 October 2020 |access-date=23 October 2020}}

The European Investment Bank contributed over €81 billion to help the energy industry between 2017 and 2022, in line with EU energy policy. This comprised nearly €76 billion for initiatives related to power grids, energy efficiency, and renewable energy throughout Europe and other parts of the world.

= Germany =

Germany has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2045.{{cite news |title=Scholz: Germany Won't Delay Path to Climate Neutrality by 2045 |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-05/scholz-germany-won-t-delay-path-to-climate-neutrality-by-2045 |work=Bloomberg |date=5 November 2022}} Speaking at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a phase-out of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas, and reiterated Germany's commitment to be climate neutral by 2045, saying: "The technologies are there: wind power, photovoltaics, electric motors, green hydrogen."{{cite news |title=COP28: Germany's Scholz calls to phase out coal, oil and gas |url=https://www.dw.com/en/cop28-germanys-scholz-calls-to-phase-out-coal-oil-and-gas/a-67614763 |work=Deutsche Welle |date=2 December 2023}}

=India=

India is confident of exceeding Paris COP commitments.{{Cite web |title=India will exceed its climate commitments: PM Narendra Modi |url=https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/india-will-exceed-its-climate-commitments-pm-narendra-modi/79702440 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201213033115/https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/india-will-exceed-its-climate-commitments-pm-narendra-modi/79702440 |archive-date=13 December 2020 |access-date=13 December 2020}} In the Paris Agreement, India has committed to an Intended Nationally Determined Contributions target of achieving 40% of its total electricity generation from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.{{Cite web |title=INDC submission. |url=http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/India/1/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180928122303/http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/India/1/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdf |archive-date=28 September 2018 |access-date=12 December 2020}}

= Japan =

{{Expand section|date=October 2020}}

Japan has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050.{{Cite news |last=McCurry |first=Justin |date=26 October 2020 |title=Japan will become carbon neutral by 2050, PM pledges |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/26/japan-will-become-carbon-neutral-by-2050-pm-pledges |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210406122154/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/26/japan-will-become-carbon-neutral-by-2050-pm-pledges |archive-date=6 April 2021 |access-date=26 October 2020 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}

= United Kingdom =

{{See also|Energy policy of the United Kingdom}}

The UK is legally committed to be carbon neutral by 2050, and moving away from the heating of homes by natural gas is likely to be the most difficult part of the country's fossil fuel phase out.{{Cite web |author=Hanna Ziady |date=6 October 2020 |title=All 30 million British homes could be powered by offshore wind in 2030 |url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/energy/offshore-wind-clean-energy-transition/index.html |access-date=25 October 2020 |publisher=CNN}} Alternative green recovery legislative plans have been proposed by multiple groups to phase out fossil fuels as fast as technology allows.See {{Cite web |last1=McGaughey |first1=E. |last2=Lawrence |first2=M. |title=The Green Recovery Act 2020 |url=https://www.common-wealth.co.uk/interactive-digital-projects/green-recovery-act#2 |publisher=Common Wealth |access-date=8 September 2023 |archive-date=15 July 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200715193619/https://www.common-wealth.co.uk/interactive-digital-projects/green-recovery-act#2 |url-status=dead }} and {{Cite report |url=https://report.gndforeurope.com |title=Green New Deal for Europe |edition=II |year=2019 }}

Voices of support

File:US-WA-Olympia-Capitol-StopCoalTrain-2013.01.14-013.JPG. Ted Nation, a long-time environmental activist, beside protest sign.]]

Prominent individuals supporting a coal moratorium or phase-out:

  • US politician Al Gore stated:{{cite news |last=Nichols |first=Michelle |date=24 September 2008 |title=Gore urges civil disobedience to stop coal plants |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-coal-goreenivro-idUSTRE48N7AA20080924 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160923035439/http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-coal-goreenivro-idUSTRE48N7AA20080924 |archive-date=23 September 2016 |access-date=22 September 2016 |work=Reuters}}

{{Block quote|If you're a young person looking at the future of this planet and looking at what is being done right now, and not done, I believe we have reached the stage where it is time for civil disobedience to prevent the construction of new coal plants that do not have carbon capture and sequestration.}}

  • Eric Schmidt, then CEO of Google, called for replacing all fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy in twenty years.[http://www.mercurynews.com/olympics/ci_10419245 "Google CEO ERic Schmidt offers energy plan,"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120920175601/http://www.mercurynews.com/olympics/ci_10419245|date=20 September 2012}} San Jose Mercury News, 9 September 2008
  • Christiana Figueres, then executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: "Those corporations that continue to invest in new fossil fuel exploration, new fossil fuel exploitation, are really in flagrant breach of their fiduciary duty because the science is abundantly clear that this is something we can no longer do."{{Cite book |last=Flannery |first=Tim |title=Atmosphere of Hope. Solutions to the Climate Crisis |publisher=Penguin Books |year=2015 |pages=123–124}}

See also

References

{{Reflist}}

= Sources =

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