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Post-election pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election

{{short description|none}}

{{see also|Pre-election pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election}}

{{see also|Pre-election pendulum for the 2019 Australian federal election}}

{{Use Australian English|date=April 2024}}

{{Use dmy dates|date=April 2022}}

{{2016 Australian federal election sidebar}}

The Coalition won the 2016 federal election with a one-seat majority 76 of 150 lower house seats. Labor holds 69 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionClassifications-20499-NAT.htm Division Classifications], Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.

Pendulum

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Government seats
colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Marginal
style=“background:#a6e7ff;”
style="background:#cfc;"

| Capricornia (Qld)

| Michelle Landry

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.63

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Forde (Qld)

| Bert van Manen

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.63

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Gilmore (NSW)

| Ann Sudmalis

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.73

style="background:#cfc;"

| Flynn (Qld)

| Ken O'Dowd

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.04

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Robertson (NSW)

| Lucy Wicks

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.14

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Chisholm (Vic)

| Julia Banks

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.24

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Dunkley (Vic)

| Chris Crewther

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.43

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Banks (NSW)

| David Coleman

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.44

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| La Trobe (Vic)

| Jason Wood

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.46

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Dickson (Qld)

| Peter Dutton

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.60

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Petrie (Qld)

| Luke Howarth

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.65

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Grey (SA)

| Rowan Ramsey

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.95 v NXT

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Hasluck (WA)

| Ken Wyatt

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.05

style="background:#cfc;"

| Page (NSW)

| Kevin Hogan

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.30

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Corangamite (Vic)

| Sarah Henderson

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.13

style="background:#cfc;"

| Dawson (Qld)

| George Christensen

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.34

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Bonner (Qld)

| Ross Vasta

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.39

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Boothby (SA)

| Nicolle Flint

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.50

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Swan (WA)

| Steve Irons

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.59

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Pearce (WA)

| Christian Porter

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.63

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Leichhardt (Qld)

| Warren Entsch

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.95

style="background:#cfc;"

| Cowper (NSW)

| Luke Hartsuyker

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.56 v IND

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Reid (NSW)

| Craig Laundy

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.69

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Barker (SA)

| Tony Pasin

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.74 v NXT

style="background:#cfc;"

| Murray (Vic)

| Damian Drum

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.13 v LIB

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Deakin (Vic)

| Michael Sukkar

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.68

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Sturt (SA)

| Christopher Pyne

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.89

style="background:#a6e7ff;"

| Brisbane (Qld)

| Trevor Evans

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.92

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Fairly safe
style="background:#50d8f9;"

| McMillan (Vic)

| Russell Broadbent

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.03

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Casey (Vic)

| Tony Smith

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.06

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Stirling (WA)

| Michael Keenan

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.12

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Canning (WA)

| Andrew Hastie

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.79

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Bowman (Qld)

| Andrew Laming

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.07

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Flinders (Vic)

| Greg Hunt

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.77

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Higgins (Vic)

| Kelly O'Dwyer

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.99 v GRN

style="background:#98fc98;"

| Wide Bay (Qld)

| Llew O'Brien

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.14

style="background:#98fc98;"

| Hinkler (Qld)

| Keith Pitt

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.42

style="background:#98fc98;"

| New England (NSW)

| Barnaby Joyce

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.52 v IND

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Aston (Vic)

| Alan Tudge

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.59

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Wannon (Vic)

| Dan Tehan

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.96

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Fisher (Qld)

| Andrew Wallace

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.06

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Ryan (Qld)

| Jane Prentice

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.09

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Hughes (NSW)

| Craig Kelly

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.33

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Wright (Qld)

| Scott Buchholz

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.62

style="background:#50d8f9;"

| Bennelong (NSW)

| John Alexander

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.72

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;"|Safe
style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Hume (NSW)

| Angus Taylor

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.18

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Menzies (Vic)

| Kevin Andrews

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.56

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Fairfax (Qld)

| Ted O'Brien

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.89

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Moore (WA)

| Ian Goodenough

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.02

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Fadden (Qld)

| Stuart Robert

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.05

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Durack (WA)

| Melissa Price

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.06

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Tangney (WA)

| Ben Morton

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.07

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Warringah (NSW)

| Tony Abbott

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.55 v GRN

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Lyne (NSW)

| David Gillespie

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.63

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| McPherson (Qld)

| Karen Andrews

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.64

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Calare (NSW)

| Andrew Gee

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.81

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Forrest (WA)

| Nola Marino

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.56

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Goldstein (Vic)

| Tim Wilson

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.68

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Kooyong (Vic)

| Josh Frydenberg

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.34

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| North Sydney (NSW)

| Trent Zimmerman

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.61

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Moncrieff (Qld)

| Steven Ciobo

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 64.94

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| O'Connor (WA)

| Rick Wilson

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.04

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Parkes (NSW)

| Mark Coulton

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.10

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Groom (Qld)

| John McVeigh

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.31

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Cook (NSW)

| Scott Morrison

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.39

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Mackellar (NSW)

| Jason Falinski

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.74

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Maranoa (Qld)

| David Littleproud

| LNP

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.86 v ONP

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Riverina (NSW)

| Michael McCormack

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 66.44

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Berowra (NSW)

| Julian Leeser

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 66.45

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Wentworth (NSW)

| Malcolm Turnbull

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.75

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Mitchell (NSW)

| Alex Hawke

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.82

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Gippsland (Vic)

| Darren Chester

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 68.43

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Farrer (NSW)

| Sussan Ley

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 70.53

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Curtin (WA)

| Julie Bishop

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 70.70

style="background:#31c3ff;"

| Bradfield (NSW)

| Paul Fletcher

| LIB

| style="text-align:center;"| 71.04

style="background:#98ff44;"

| Mallee (Vic)

| Andrew Broad

| NAT

| style="text-align:center;"| 71.32

class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Non-government seats
colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Marginal
style="background:#cfc;"
style="background:#fdd;"

| Herbert (Qld)

| Cathy O'Toole

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.02

style="background:#fdd;"

| Hindmarsh (SA)

| Steve Georganas

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.58

style="background:#fdd;"

| Cowan (WA)

| Anne Aly

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.68

style="background:#fdd;"

| Longman (Qld)

| Susan Lamb

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 50.79

style="background:#fdd;"

| Batman (Vic)

| David Feeney

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.03 v GRN

style="background:#fdd;"

| Lindsay (NSW)

| Emma Husar

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.38

style="background:#fdd;"

| Melbourne Ports (Vic)

| Michael Danby

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.38

style="background:#fdd;"

| Griffith (Qld)

| Terri Butler

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 51.60

style="background:#fdd;"

| Macquarie (NSW)

| Susan Templeman

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.19

style="background:#fdd;"

| Braddon (Tas)

| Justine Keay

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.20

style="background:#fdd;"

| Lyons (Tas)

| Brian Mitchell

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.31

style="background:#fdd;"

| Eden-Monaro (NSW)

| Mike Kelly

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 52.93

style="background:#fdd;"

| Perth (WA)

| Tim Hammond

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.33

style="background:#fdd;"

| Bendigo (Vic)

| Lisa Chesters

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.74

style="background:#fdd;"

| Richmond (NSW)

| Justine Elliot

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 53.96

style="background:#fdd;"

| Moreton (Qld)

| Graham Perrett

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.02

style="background:#fdd;"

| Bruce (Vic)

| Julian Hill

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.08

style="background:#fdd;"

| Adelaide (SA)

| Kate Ellis

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.65

style="background:#fdd;"

| Jagajaga (Vic)

| Jenny Macklin

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.67

style="background:#fdd;"

| Dobell (NSW)

| Emma McBride

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.81

style="background:#fdd;"

| Wills (Vic)

| Peter Khalil

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.88 v GRN

style="background:#fdd;"

| Lilley (Qld)

| Wayne Swan

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.32

style="background:#fdd;"

| Isaacs (Vic)

| Mark Dreyfus

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 55.73

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Fairly safe
style="background:#fcc;"

| Solomon (NT)

| Luke Gosling

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.00

style="background:#fcc;"

| Bass (Tas)

| Ross Hart

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.09

style="background:#fcc;"

| Greenway (NSW)

| Michelle Rowland

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 56.31

style="background:#fcc;"

| Burt (WA)

| Matt Keogh

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.11

style="background:#fcc;"

| Ballarat (Vic)

| Catherine King

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.32

style="background:#fcc;"

| Hotham (Vic)

| Clare O'Neil

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.48

style="background:#fcc;"

| Fremantle (WA)

| Josh Wilson

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.52

style="background:#fcc;"

| Parramatta (NSW)

| Julie Owens

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.67

style="background:#fcc;"

| McEwen (Vic)

| Rob Mitchell

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 57.85

style="background:#fcc;"

| Werriwa (NSW)

| Anne Stanley

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.20

style="background:#fcc;"

| Barton (NSW)

| Linda Burney

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.30

style="background:#fcc;"

| Macarthur (NSW)

| Mike Freelander

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.33

style="background:#fcc;"

| Lingiari (NT)

| Warren Snowdon

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.42

style="background:#fcc;"

| Canberra (ACT)

| Gai Brodtmann

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.46

style="background:#fcc;"

| Kingsford Smith (NSW)

| Matt Thistlethwaite

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.57

style="background:#fcc;"

| Blair (Qld)

| Shayne Neumann

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 58.88

style="background:#fcc;"

| Oxley (Qld)

| Milton Dick

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.08

style="background:#fcc;"

| Makin (SA)

| Tony Zappia

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.65

style="background:#fcc;"

| Shortland (NSW)

| Pat Conroy

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.94

style="background:#fcc;"

| Corio (Vic)

| Richard Marles

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 59.99

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Safe
style="background:#fbb;"

| Franklin (Tas)

| Julie Collins

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.72

style="background:#fbb;"

| Paterson (NSW)

| Meryl Swanson

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.74

style="background:#fbb;"

| Wakefield (SA)

| Nick Champion

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 60.97

style="background:#fbb;"

| Rankin (Qld)

| Jim Chalmers

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.30

style="background:#fbb;"

| Brand (WA)

| Madeleine King

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.43

style="background:#fbb;"

| McMahon (NSW)

| Chris Bowen

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.11

style="background:#fbb;"

| Maribyrnong (Vic)

| Bill Shorten

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.31

style="background:#fbb;"

| Hunter (NSW)

| Joel Fitzgibbon

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 62.46

style="background:#fbb;"

| Cunningham (NSW)

| Sharon Bird

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.32

style="background:#fbb;"

| Lalor (Vic)

| Joanne Ryan

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.44

style="background:#fbb;"

| Whitlam (NSW)

| Stephen Jones

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.72

style="background:#fbb;"

| Newcastle (NSW)

| Sharon Claydon

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.84

style="background:#fbb;"

| Fenner (ACT)

| Andrew Leigh

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 63.89

style="background:#fbb;"

| Holt (Vic)

| Anthony Byrne

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 64.17

style="background:#fbb;"

| Port Adelaide (SA)

| Mark Butler

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 64.86 v NXT

style="background:#fbb;"

| Sydney (NSW)

| Tanya Plibersek

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.31

style="background:#fbb;"

| Grayndler (NSW)

| Anthony Albanese

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 65.82 v GRN

style="background:#fbb;"

| Kingston (SA)

| Amanda Rishworth

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.05

style="background:#fbb;"

| Scullin (Vic)

| Andrew Giles

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.28

style="background:#fbb;"

| Fowler (NSW)

| Chris Hayes

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.49

style="background:#fbb;"

| Watson (NSW)

| Tony Burke

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.58

style="background:#fbb;"

| Calwell (Vic)

| Maria Vamvakinou

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.87

style="background:#fbb;"

| Gellibrand (Vic)

| Tim Watts

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 68.23

style="background:#fbb;"

| Chifley (NSW)

| Ed Husic

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 69.19

style="background:#fbb;"

| Gorton (Vic)

| Brendan O'Connor

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 69.45

style="background:#fbb;"

| Blaxland (NSW)

| Jason Clare

| ALP

| style="text-align:center;"| 69.48

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:gray;"|Crossbench seats
Indi (Vic)

| Cathy McGowan

| IND

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.83 v LIB

style="background:#fba978;"

| Mayo (SA)

| Rebekha Sharkie

| NXT

| style="text-align:center;"| 54.97 v LIB

style="background:#fe6f5e;"

| Kennedy (Qld)

| Bob Katter

| KAP

| style="text-align:center;"| 61.12 v LNP

style="background:#eee;"

| Denison (Tas)

| Andrew Wilkie

| IND

| style="text-align:center;"| 67.78 v ALP

style="background:#33ff88;"

| Melbourne (Vic)

| Adam Bandt

| GRN

| style="text-align:center;"| 68.48 v LIB

{{Clear}}

References

{{reflist}}

{{2016 Australian federal election}}

{{Australian Federal Election Pendulums}}

Category:Pendulums for Australian federal elections