:Climate change

{{Further|Global surface temperature}}

{{Main|Climate variability and change|Temperature record of the last 2,000 years|Paleoclimatology}}

File:Common Era Temperature.svg reconstruction over the last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores in blue.{{harvnb|Neukom|Barboza|Erb|Shi|2019b}}. Directly observed data is in red.{{cite web |title=Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/ |access-date=23 February 2020 |publisher=NASA}}]]

Over the last few million years the climate cycled through ice ages. One of the hotter periods was the Last Interglacial, around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|pp=294, 296}} This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most recent glacial maximum 20,000 years ago was some 5–7 °C colder. This period has sea levels that were over {{convert|125|m|ft}} lower than today.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|p=366}}

Temperatures stabilized in the current interglacial period beginning 11,700 years ago.{{cite journal |last1=Marcott |first1=S. A. |last2=Shakun |first2=J. D. |last3=Clark |first3=P. U. |last4=Mix |first4=A. C. |title=A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years |journal=Science |year=2013 |volume=339 |issue=6124 |pages=1198–1201 |doi=10.1126/science.1228026|pmid=23471405 |bibcode=2013Sci...339.1198M }} This period also saw the start of agriculture.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021|p=296}} Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|p=386}}{{harvnb|Neukom|Steiger|Gómez-Navarro|Wang|2019a}} Climate information for that period comes from climate proxies, such as trees and ice cores.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=57}}: "This report adopts the 51-year reference period, 1850–1900 inclusive, assessed as an approximation of pre-industrial levels in AR5 ... Temperatures rose by 0.0 °C–0.2 °C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900"{{harvnb|Hawkins|Ortega|Suckling|Schurer|2017|p=1844}}

File:1951- Percent of record temperatures that are cold or warm records.svg

File:1955- Ocean heat content - NOAA.svg during recent decades as the oceans absorb over 90% of the heat from global warming.Top 700 meters: {{cite web |last1=Lindsey |first1=Rebecca |last2=Dahlman |first2=Luann |title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |website=climate.gov |publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |archive-url=https://archive.today/20231029171303/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |archive-date=29 October 2023 |date=6 September 2023 |url-status=live }} ● Top 2000 meters: {{cite web |title=Ocean Warming / Latest Measurement: December 2022 / 345 (± 2) zettajoules since 1955 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/ |website=NASA.gov |publisher=National Aeronautics and Space Administration |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231020033606/https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/ |archive-date=20 October 2023 |url-status=live}}]]

Around 1850 thermometer records began to provide global coverage.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=4–5}}: "Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables ... the period 1880 to 2012 ... multiple independently produced datasets exist."

Between the 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from sulfur dioxide emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain, but it also produces sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause global dimming. After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to a marked increase in temperature.{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/26/global-warming-accelerating-climate-change/ |title=Is climate change speeding up? Here's what the science says. |last1=Mooney |first1=Chris | last2=Osaka |first2=Shannon |date=26 December 2023 |newspaper=The Washington Post |access-date=18 January 2024}}{{cite news |date=15 March 2007 |title=Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists |url=http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html |publisher=NASA}}

File:1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm

Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=43}} Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature,{{harvnb|EPA|2016}}: "The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g. rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice)." at a rate of around 0.2 °C per decade.{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=81}}. The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).{{harvnb|Forster|Smith|Walsh|Lamb|2024|p=2626}} Not every single year was warmer than the last: internal climate variability processes can make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average.{{cite journal |last1=Samset |first1=B. H. |last2=Fuglestvedt |first2=J. S. |last3=Lund |first3=M. T. |title=Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation |journal=Nature Communications |date=7 July 2020 |volume=11 |issue=1 |page=3261 |doi=10.1038/s41467-020-17001-1 |pmid=32636367 |pmc=7341748 |bibcode=2020NatCo..11.3261S |quote=At the time of writing, that translated into 2035–2045, where the delay was mostly due to the impacts of the around 0.2 °C of natural, interannual variability of global mean surface air temperature |hdl=11250/2771093 |hdl-access=free }} From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO){{Cite journal |last1=Seip |first1=Knut L. |last2=Grøn |first2=ø. |last3=Wang |first3=H. |date=31 August 2023 |title=Global lead-lag changes between climate variability series coincide with major phase shifts in the Pacific decadal oscillation |journal=Theoretical and Applied Climatology |volume=154 |issue=3–4 |language=en |doi=10.1007/s00704-023-04617-8 |issn=0177-798X |pages=1137–1149 |bibcode=2023ThApC.154.1137S |s2cid=261438532 |doi-access=free |hdl=11250/3088837 |hdl-access=free }} and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO){{Cite journal |last1=Yao |first1=Shuai-Lei |last2=Huang |first2=Gang |last3=Wu |first3=Ren-Guang |last4=Qu |first4=Xia |date=January 2016 |title=The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x |journal=Theoretical and Applied Climatology |language=en |volume=123 |issue=1–2 |pages=349–360 |doi=10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x |bibcode=2016ThApC.123..349Y |s2cid=123602825 |issn=0177-798X |access-date=20 September 2023}} caused a short slower period of warming called the "global warming hiatus".{{Cite journal |last1=Xie |first1=Shang-Ping |last2=Kosaka |first2=Yu |date=June 2017 |title=What Caused the Global Surface Warming Hiatus of 1998–2013? |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-017-0063-0 |journal=Current Climate Change Reports |language=en |volume=3 |issue=2 |pages=128–140 |doi=10.1007/s40641-017-0063-0 |bibcode=2017CCCR....3..128X |s2cid=133522627 |issn=2198-6061 |access-date=20 September 2023}} After the "hiatus", the opposite occurred, with 2024 well above the recent average at more than +1.5 °C.{{Cite journal |last=Tollefson |first=Jeff |date=10 January 2025 |title=Earth breaches 1.5 °C climate limit for the first time: what does it mean? |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00010-9 |journal=Nature |volume=637 |issue=8047 |pages=769–770 |language=en |doi=10.1038/d41586-025-00010-9 |pmid=39794429 |bibcode=2025Natur.637..769T |issn=1476-4687}} This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal.IPCC, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf Summary for Policymakers]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 3–32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.{{rp|5}}{{Cite web |last=McGrath |first=Matt |date=17 May 2023 |title=Global warming set to break key 1.5C limit for first time |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65602293 |website=BBC News |access-date=31 January 2024 |quote=The researchers stress that temperatures would have to stay at or above 1.5C for 20 years to be able to say the Paris agreement threshold had been passed. }}

A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming.{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|p=S26}}. Figure 2.5.{{sfn|Loeb et al.|2021}} The upper atmosphere is cooling, because greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat is radiating into space.{{cite web |url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming |title=Global Warming |date=3 June 2010 |publisher=NASA JPL |access-date=11 September 2020 |quote=Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere but cooling in the stratosphere. This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases but inconsistent with warming from natural causes.}} Warming reduces average snow cover and forces the retreat of glaciers. At the same time, warming also causes greater evaporation from the oceans, leading to more atmospheric humidity, more and heavier precipitation.{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|pp=S26, S59–S60}}{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 1|2017|p=35}} Plants are flowering earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=257–260}}

Different regions of the world warm at different rates. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature.{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}} This is because oceans lose more heat by evaporation and oceans can store a lot of heat.{{Harvnb|Sutton|Dong|Gregory|2007}}. The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean.{{cite web|title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |newspaper=Noaa Climate.gov |publisher=NOAA |year=2018 |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190212110601/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-date=12 February 2019 |url-status=live|access-date=20 February 2019}}{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013|p=257}}: "Ocean warming dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total. The rest has heated the atmosphere, melted ice, and warmed the continents.{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckman |first1=K. |last2=Cheng |first2=L. |last3=Palmer |first3=M. D. |last4=Hansen |first4=J. |last5=Tassone |first5=C. |last6=Aich |first6=V. |last7=Adusumilli |first7=S. |last8=Beltrami |first8=H. |last9=Boyer |first9=T. |last10=Cuesta-Valero |first10=F. J. |display-authors=4 |title=Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go? |journal=Earth System Science Data |date=7 September 2020 |doi=10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020 |doi-access=free |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/ |volume=12 |issue=3 |pages=2013–2041|bibcode=2020ESSD...12.2013V |hdl=20.500.11850/443809 |hdl-access=free }}

The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and sea ice. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat.{{harvnb|NOAA, 10 July|2011}}. Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming.{{harvnb|United States Environmental Protection Agency|2016|p=5}}: "Black carbon that is deposited on snow and ice darkens those surfaces and decreases their reflectivity (albedo). This is known as the snow/ice albedo effect. This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting." Arctic surface temperatures are increasing between three and four times faster than in the rest of the world.{{cite web |date=20 May 2021 |title=Arctic warming three times faster than the planet, report warns |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-05-arctic-faster-planet.html |website=Phys.org |language=en |access-date=6 October 2022}}{{Cite journal |last1=Rantanen |first1=Mika |last2=Karpechko |first2=Alexey Yu |last3=Lipponen |first3=Antti |last4=Nordling |first4=Kalle |last5=Hyvärinen |first5=Otto |last6=Ruosteenoja |first6=Kimmo |last7=Vihma |first7=Timo |last8=Laaksonen |first8=Ari |date=11 August 2022 |title=The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |journal=Communications Earth & Environment |language=en |volume=3 |issue=1 |page=168 |doi=10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 |s2cid=251498876 |issn=2662-4435|doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ComEE...3..168R |hdl=11250/3115996 |hdl-access=free }}{{cite web |date=14 December 2021 |title=The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/arctic-warming-four-times-faster-rest-world |language=en |access-date=6 October 2022}} Melting of ice sheets near the poles weakens both the Atlantic and the Antarctic limb of thermohaline circulation, which further changes the distribution of heat and precipitation around the globe.{{Cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Wei |last2=Fedorov |first2=Alexey V. |last3=Xie |first3=Shang-Ping |last4=Hu |first4=Shineng |date=26 June 2020 |title=Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate |journal=Science Advances |volume=6 |issue=26 |pages=eaaz4876 |doi=10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876 |pmid=32637596 |pmc=7319730 |bibcode=2020SciA....6.4876L }}{{cite web |last=Pearce |first=Fred |date=18 April 2023 |title=New Research Sparks Concerns That Ocean Circulation Will Collapse |url=https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-ocean-circulation-collapse-antarctica |language=en |access-date=3 February 2024 }}{{Cite journal |last1=Lee |first1=Sang-Ki |last2=Lumpkin |first2=Rick |last3=Gomez |first3=Fabian |last4=Yeager |first4=Stephen |last5=Lopez |first5=Hosmay |last6=Takglis |first6=Filippos |last7=Dong |first7=Shenfu |last8=Aguiar |first8=Wilton |last9=Kim |first9=Dongmin |last10=Baringer |first10=Molly |date=13 March 2023 |title=Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean |journal=Communications Earth & Environment |volume=4 |issue=1 |page=69 |doi=10.1038/s43247-023-00727-3 |bibcode=2023ComEE...4...69L |doi-access=free }}{{cite web |date=29 March 2023 |title=NOAA Scientists Detect a Reshaping of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean |url=https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/noaa-scientists-detect-reshaping-of-the-meridional-overturning-circulation-in-southern-ocean/ |publisher=NOAA }}

File:Projected Change in Temperatures by 2090.svg multi-model projections of global surface temperature changes for the year 2090 relative to the 1850–1900 average. The current trajectory for warming by the end of the century is roughly halfway between these two extremes.{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A. G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |bibcode=2022ARER...47..343S |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |quote="Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3 °C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..." |doi-access=free |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt}}{{Cite web |last=Phiddian |first=Ellen |date=5 April 2022 |title=Explainer: IPCC Scenarios |url=https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |website=Cosmos |access-date=30 September 2023 |quote="The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3 °C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9 °C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1 °C.}}]]

The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is almost a 50% chance of the five-year average global temperature exceeding +1.5 °C between 2024 and 2028.{{sfn|WMO|2024b|p=2}} The IPCC expects the 20-year average to exceed +1.5 °C in the early 2030s.{{Cite web |date=7 August 2021 |title=Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf#page=955 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240405072633/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf#page=955 |archive-date=5 April 2024 |website=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |id=IPCC AR6 WGI}}

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases, 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario,

or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=SPM-17}} The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios,{{Cite journal |last1=Meinshausen |first1=Malte |last2=Smith |first2=S. J. |last3=Calvin |first3=K. |last4=Daniel |first4=J. S. |last5=Kainuma |first5=M. L. T. |last6=Lamarque |first6=J-F. |last7=Matsumoto |first7=K. |last8=Montzka |first8=S. A. |last9=Raper |first9=S. C. B. |last10=Riahi |first10=K. |last11=Thomson |first11=A. |last12=Velders |first12=G. J. M. |last13=van Vuuren |first13=D.P. P. |year=2011 |title=The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 |journal=Climatic Change |language=en |volume=109 |issue=1–2 |pages=213–241 |doi=10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z |bibcode=2011ClCh..109..213M |issn=0165-0009|doi-access=free }}{{cite journal |last1=Lyon |first1=Christopher |last2=Saupe |first2=Erin E. |last3=Smith |first3=Christopher J. |last4=Hill |first4=Daniel J. |last5=Beckerman |first5=Andrew P. |last6=Stringer |first6=Lindsay C. |last7=Marchant |first7=Robert |last8=McKay |first8=James |last9=Burke |first9=Ariane |last10=O'Higgins |first10=Paul |last11=Dunhill |first11=Alexander M. |last12=Allen |first12=Bethany J. |last13=Riel-Salvatore |first13=Julien |last14=Aze |first14=Tracy |year=2021 |title=Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100 |journal=Global Change Biology |language=en |volume=28 |issue=2 |pages=349–361 |doi=10.1111/gcb.15871 |issn=1365-2486 |pmid=34558764 |s2cid=237616583 |doi-access=free|hdl=20.500.11850/521222 |hdl-access=free }} with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|pp=43–44}}

The remaining carbon budget for staying beneath certain temperature increases is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases.{{harvnb|Rogelj|Forster|Kriegler|Smith|2019}} According to UNEP, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}. This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0 °C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}, or 16 years of current emissions.{{sfn|United Nations Environment Programme|2024|pp=XI, XVII}}

{{Main|Causes of climate change}}

File:Physical Drivers of climate change.svg of global warming that has happened so far. Future global warming potential for long lived drivers like carbon dioxide emissions is not represented. Whiskers on each bar show the possible error range.]]

The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, El Niño events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling.{{cite journal |last1=Brown |first1=Patrick T. |last2=Li |first2=Wenhong |last3=Xie |first3=Shang-Ping |title=Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models: Origin of global temperature variability |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |date=27 January 2015 |volume=120 |issue=2 |pages=480–494 |doi=10.1002/2014JD022576 |doi-access=free |hdl=10161/9564 |hdl-access=free }} Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on a decadal timescale.{{cite journal |last1=Trenberth |first1=Kevin E. |last2=Fasullo |first2=John T. |title=An apparent hiatus in global warming? |journal=Earth's Future |date=December 2013 |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=19–32 |doi=10.1002/2013EF000165 |bibcode=2013EaFut...1...19T |doi-access=free }} Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy from external forcings.{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2012|p=9}} Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|p=916}}.

To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal climate variability.{{harvnb|Knutson|2017|p=443}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|pp=875–876}} For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming the entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed. Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in albedo, are less impactful.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=7}}

{{Main|Greenhouse gas|Greenhouse gas emissions|Greenhouse effect|Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere}}File:Carbon Dioxide 800kyr.svg

Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight, and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat, and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time.{{cite web|title=The Causes of Climate Change|author=NASA |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/causes|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|access-date=8 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190508000022/https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/|archive-date=8 May 2019|url-status=live}}

While water vapour (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be feedbacks that change climate sensitivity. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as {{CO2}} (≈20%), tropospheric ozone,Ozone acts as a greenhouse gas in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere (as opposed to the stratospheric ozone layer). {{harvnb|Wang|Shugart|Lerdau|2017}} CFCs and nitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be external forcings that change global temperatures.{{harvnb|Schmidt|Ruedy|Miller|Lacis|2010}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014|p=742}}

Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007|loc=FAQ1.1}}: "To emit 240 W m⁻², a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C).{{cite web|title=What Is the Greenhouse Effect?|author=ACS|author-link=American Chemical Society|url=https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|access-date=26 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190526110653/https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|archive-date=26 May 2019|url-status=live}} Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas),{{Harvnb|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}. has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the concentrations of {{CO2}} and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750.{{Harvnb|WMO|2024a|p=2}}. These {{CO2}} levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 14 million years.{{sfn|The Cenozoic CO2 Proxy Integration Project (CenCOPIP) Consortium|2023}} Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.{{Sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-35}}

File:CO2 Emissions by Source Since 1880.svg shows how additions to {{CO2}} since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.]]

Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of {{CO2}}. Of these emissions, 75% was {{CO2}}, 18% was methane, 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases.{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|loc=Figure SPM.1}} {{CO2}} emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport, manufacturing, heating, and electricity. Additional {{CO2}} emissions come from deforestation and industrial processes, which include the {{CO2}} released by the chemical reactions for making cement, steel, aluminum, and fertilizer.{{harvnb|Olivier|Peters|2019|p=17}}{{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}; {{harvnb|EPA|2020}}: "Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily come from burning fossil fuels for energy, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from certain chemical reactions necessary to produce goods from raw materials."{{cite web|title=Redox, extraction of iron and transition metals|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv7f3k7/revision/2|quote=Hot air (oxygen) reacts with the coke (carbon) to produce carbon dioxide and heat energy to heat up the furnace. Removing impurities: The calcium carbonate in the limestone thermally decomposes to form calcium oxide. calcium carbonate → calcium oxide + carbon dioxide}}{{harvnb|Kvande|2014}}: "Carbon dioxide gas is formed at the anode, as the carbon anode is consumed upon reaction of carbon with the oxygen ions from the alumina ({{chem2|Al2O3}}). Formation of carbon dioxide is unavoidable as long as carbon anodes are used, and it is of great concern because {{CO2}} is a greenhouse gas." Methane emissions come from livestock, manure, rice cultivation, landfills, wastewater, and coal mining, as well as oil and gas extraction.{{harvnb|EPA|2020}}{{harvnb|Global Methane Initiative|2020}}: "Estimated Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions by Source, 2020: Enteric fermentation (27%), Manure Management (3%), Coal Mining (9%), Municipal Solid Waste (11%), Oil & Gas (24%), Wastewater (7%), Rice Cultivation (7%)." Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertilizer.{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}: "Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of {{N2O}} emissions."{{harvnb|Davidson|2009}}: "2.0% of manure nitrogen and 2.5% of fertilizer nitrogen was converted to nitrous oxide between 1860 and 2005; these percentage contributions explain the entire pattern of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations over this period."

While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years,{{cite web |title=Understanding methane emissions |publisher=International Energy Agency |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2023/understanding-methane-emissions}} {{CO2}} lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs {{CO2}} as part of the carbon cycle. While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of {{CO2}} every year, that {{CO2}} is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays.{{cite web|last1=Riebeek|first1=Holli|title=The Carbon Cycle|url=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features|website=Earth Observatory|publisher=NASA|access-date=5 April 2018|date=16 June 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305010126/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features|archive-date=5 March 2016|url-status=live}} Land-surface carbon sink processes, such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global {{CO2}} emissions.{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=10}} The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted {{CO2}} over the last two decades.{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=450}}. {{CO2}} is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete.

File:20210331 Global tree cover loss - World Resources Institute.svg

Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans (glaciers, deserts, etc.), 26% is forests, 10% is shrubland and 34% is agricultural land.{{harvnb|Ritchie|Roser|2018}} Deforestation is the main land use change contributor to global warming,{{harvnb|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}}; {{harvnb|UN FAO|2016|p=18}}. as the destroyed trees release {{CO2}}, and are not replaced by new trees, removing that carbon sink.{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}} Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the shifting cultivation agricultural systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and wildfires have accounted for the remaining 23%.{{harvnb|Curtis|Slay|Harris|Tyukavina|2018}} Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink.{{Cite book |author1=Garrett, L. |author2=Lévite, H. |author3=Besacier, C. |author4=Alekseeva, N. |author5=Duchelle, M. |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cc2510en |title=The key role of forest and landscape restoration in climate action |publisher=FAO |year=2022 |isbn=978-92-5-137044-5 |location=Rome|doi=10.4060/cc2510en }}

Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space (albedo), and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}} In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler. At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains. Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect.{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=172}}: "The global biophysical cooling alone has been estimated by a larger range of climate models and is −0.10 ± 0.14 °C; it ranges from −0.57 °C to +0.06 °C ... This cooling is essentially dominated by increases in surface albedo: historical land cover changes have generally led to a dominant brightening of land."

Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale.{{Harvnb|Haywood|2016|p=456}}; {{harvnb|McNeill|2017}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}. Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as global dimming,{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=183}}. and is primarily attributed to sulfate aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal and bunker fuel. Smaller contributions come from black carbon (from combustion of fossil fuels and biomass), and from dust.{{harvnb|He|Wang|Zhou|Wild|2018}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}{{Cite web |date=18 February 2021 |title=Aerosol pollution has caused decades of global dimming |url=https://news.agu.org/press-release/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming/ |website=American Geophysical Union |access-date=18 December 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230327143716/https://news.agu.org/press-release/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming/ |archive-date=27 March 2023 }}{{Cite web |last=Monroe |first=Robert |date=20 January 2023 |title=Increased Atmospheric Dust has Masked Power of Greenhouse Gases to Warm Planet {{!}} Scripps Institution of Oceanography |url=https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/increased-atmospheric-dust-has-masked-power-greenhouse-gases-warm-planet |access-date=8 November 2024 |website=scripps.ucsd.edu |language=en}} Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.{{harvnb|Wild|Gilgen|Roesch|Ohmura|2005}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.{{Cite journal |last1=Quaas |first1=Johannes |last2=Jia |first2=Hailing |last3=Smith |first3=Chris |last4=Albright |first4=Anna Lea |last5=Aas |first5=Wenche |last6=Bellouin |first6=Nicolas |last7=Boucher |first7=Olivier |last8=Doutriaux-Boucher |first8=Marie |last9=Forster |first9=Piers M. |last10=Grosvenor |first10=Daniel |last11=Jenkins |first11=Stuart |last12=Klimont |first12=Zbigniew |last13=Loeb |first13=Norman G. |last14=Ma |first14=Xiaoyan |last15=Naik |first15=Vaishali |last16=Paulot |first16=Fabien |last17=Stier |first17=Philip |last18=Wild |first18=Martin |last19=Myhre |first19=Gunnar |last20=Schulz |first20=Michael |date=21 September 2022 |title=Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing |url=https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12221/2022/ |journal=Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |volume=22 |issue=18 |pages=12221–12239 |language=en |doi=10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022 |s2cid=252446168 |hdl=20.500.11850/572791 |hdl-access=free |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ACP....2212221Q }}

Aerosols also have indirect effects on the Earth's energy budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.{{harvnb|Twomey|1977}}. They also reduce the growth of raindrops, which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.{{harvnb|Albrecht|1989}}. Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.

While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}; {{harvnb|RIVM|2016}}. Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.{{harvnb|Sand|Berntsen|von Salzen|Flanner|2015}} The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020{{Cite web|url=https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-2020.aspx|title=IMO 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions|website=imo.org}} is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 3 July|2023}}

{{Further|Solar activity and climate}}

File:2017 Global warming attribution - based on NCA4 Fig 3.3 - single-panel version.svg ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts illustrating that neither solar nor volcanic activity can explain the observed warming.{{cite journal |title=Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I – Chapter 3: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ |website=science2017.globalchange.gov |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190923190450/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ |archive-date=23 September 2019 |year=2017 |pages=1–470 |url-status=live}} Adapted directly from Fig. 3.3.{{cite journal |last1=Wuebbles |first1=D. J. |last2=Fahey |first2=D. W. |last3=Hibbard |first3=K. A. |last4=Deangelo |first4=B. |last5=Doherty |first5=S. |last6=Hayhoe |first6=K. |last7=Horton |first7=R. |last8=Kossin |first8=J. P. |last9=Taylor |first9=P. C. |last10=Waple |first10=A. M. |last11=Yohe |first11=C. P. |date=23 November 2018 |title=Climate Science Special Report / Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I /Executive Summary / Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |url-status=live |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program |pages=1–470 |doi=10.7930/J0DJ5CTG |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190614150544/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |archive-date=14 June 2019 |doi-access=free |website=globalchange.gov}}]]

As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the climate system.{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}. Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites,{{Harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=6}} and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards. Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere).{{cite web|title=Is the Sun causing global warming?|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|date=18 September 2014 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming|access-date=10 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190505160051/https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/|archive-date=5 May 2019|url-status=live}} The upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) would also be warming if the Sun was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling.{{Harvnb|USGCRP|2009|p=20}}.

This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007|pp=702–703}}; {{harvnb|Randel|Shine|Austin|Barnett|2009}}.

Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures.{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/ |title=Tonga eruption blasted unprecedented amount of water into stratosphere |last=Greicius |first=Tony |date=2 August 2022 |website=NASA Global Climate Change |access-date=18 January 2024 |quote=Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth's surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn't inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.}} These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere.{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=79}} volcanic {{CO2}} emissions are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused {{CO2}} emissions.{{sfn|Fischer|Aiuppa|2020}} Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution.

{{Main|Climate change feedbacks|Climate sensitivity}}

File:NORTH POLE Ice (19626661335).jpg.{{cite web |url=https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html |title=Thermodynamics: Albedo |work=NSIDC |access-date=10 October 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011021602/https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html |archive-date=11 October 2017 |url-status=live }}]]

The climate system's response to an initial forcing is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. Self-reinforcing or positive feedbacks increase the response, while balancing or negative feedbacks reduce it.{{cite web |title=The study of Earth as an integrated system |publisher=Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology |year=2013 |series=Vitals Signs of the Planet |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190226190002/https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |archive-date=26 February 2019 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |url-status=live}} The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and the net effect of clouds.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}}{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=58}}: "The net effect of changes in clouds in response to global warming is to amplify human-induced warming, that is, the net cloud feedback is positive (high confidence)" The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling, as Earth's surface gives off more heat to space in response to rising temperature.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–90}} In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of {{CO2}} on plant growth.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013|p=14}} Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=93}}: "Feedback processes are expected to become more positive overall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on multi-decadal time scales as the spatial pattern of surface warming evolves and global surface temperature increases."

These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air can hold more moisture in the form of water vapour, which is itself a potent greenhouse gas.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}} Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming.{{sfn|Williams|Ceppi|Katavouta|2020}} The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and accelerates Arctic warming.{{harvnb|NASA, 28 May|2013}}.{{harvnb|Cohen|Screen|Furtado|Barlow|2014}}. This additional warming also contributes to permafrost thawing, which releases methane and {{CO2}} into the atmosphere.{{harvnb|Turetsky|Abbott|Jones|Anthony|2019}}

Around half of human-caused {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.{{harvnb|Climate.gov, 23 June|2022}}: "Carbon cycle experts estimate that natural "sinks"—processes that remove carbon from the atmosphere—on land and in the ocean absorbed the equivalent of about half of the carbon dioxide we emitted each year in the 2011–2020 decade." This fraction is not static and if future {{CO2}} emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-122|loc=Box TS.5, Figure 1}} This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer.{{harvnb|Melillo|Frey|DeAngelis|Werner|2017}}: Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=133, 144}}. The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in thermohaline circulation and phytoplankton distribution.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=93–95}}{{cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Y. |last2=Moore |first2=J. K. |last3=Primeau |first3=F. |last4=Wang |first4=W. L. |date=22 December 2022 |title=Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=13 |pages=83–90 |doi=10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7 |osti=2242376 |s2cid=255028552 }} Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|pp=58, 59}}: "Clouds remain the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in climate feedbacks." is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015}}: "the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth's climate (over multi-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway."

{{Further|Climate model|Climate change scenario}}

File:Greenhouse Effect (2017 NASA data).svg that heats the planet up.]]

A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}. Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#types "What are the different types of climate models?"]}} Models are used to estimate the degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the strength of climate feedbacks.{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015}}{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#who "Who does climate modelling around the world?"]}} Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#what "What is a climate model?"]}}

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}, FAQ 8.1. Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage{{harvnb|Stroeve|Holland|Meier|Scambos|2007}}; {{harvnb|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}} and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.{{harvnb|Liepert|Previdi|2009}}. Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations.{{harvnb|Rahmstorf|Cazenave|Church|Hansen|2007}}; {{harvnb|Mitchum|Masters|Hamlington|Fasullo|2018}} The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017}}. Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts.{{cite journal |last1=Hébert |first1=R. |last2=Herzschuh |first2=U. |last3=Laepple |first3=T. |date=31 October 2022 |title=Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations |journal=Nature Geoscience |volume=15 |issue=1 |pages=899–905 |doi=10.1038/s41561-022-01056-4 |pmid=36817575 |pmc=7614181 |bibcode=2022NatGe..15..899H }}

A subset of climate models add societal factors to a physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth, and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#inout "What are the inputs and outputs for a climate model?"]}}{{harvnb|Matthews|Gillett|Stott|Zickfeld|2009}} Depending on the socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}; {{harvnb|Meinshausen|2019|p=462}}.

{{Main|Effects of climate change}}

File:Soil moisture and climate change.svgs from the 1850 to 1900 baseline.]]

{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans|Effects of climate change on the water cycle}}

The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans, ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations.{{harvnb|Hansen|Sato|Hearty|Ruedy|2016}}; {{harvnb|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}. Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017|p=415}}. Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia.{{harvnb|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Stott|2017}}. Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980.{{Cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Fei |last2=Wang |first2=Bin |last3=Ouyang |first3=Yu |last4=Wang |first4=Hui |last5=Qiao |first5=Shaobo |last6=Chen |first6=Guosen |last7=Dong |first7=Wenjie |date=19 April 2022 |title=Intraseasonal variability of global land monsoon precipitation and its recent trend |journal=npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |language=en |volume=5 |issue=1 |page=30 |doi=10.1038/s41612-022-00253-7 |bibcode=2022npCAS...5...30L |issn=2397-3722 |doi-access=free }} The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing,{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 9|2017|p=260}}. and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming.{{cite journal |first1=Joshua |last1=Studholme |first2=Alexey V. |last2=Fedorov |first3=Sergey K. |last3=Gulev |first4=Kerry |last4=Emanuel |first5=Kevin |last5=Hodges |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00859-1 |title=Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates |date=29 December 2021 |journal=Nature Geoscience |volume=15 |pages=14–28 |doi=10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1 |s2cid=245540084}} Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change.{{cite web |title=Hurricanes and Climate Change |url=https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/ |website=Center for Climate and Energy Solutions |date=10 July 2020}}

File:Sea level history and projections.svg

Global sea level is rising as a consequence of thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8 cm per decade between 2014 and 2023.{{harvnb|WMO|2024a|p=6}}. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62 cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76 cm under an intermediate one and 65–101 cm under a very high emission scenario.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=1302}} Marine ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values,{{harvnb|DeConto|Pollard|2016}} including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.{{sfn|Bamber|Oppenheimer|Kopp|Aspinall|2019}}

Climate change has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice.{{harvnb|Zhang|Lindsay|Steele|Schweiger|2008}} While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of 2 °C.{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}} Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations cause more {{CO2}} to dissolve in the oceans, which is making them more acidic.{{Harvnb|Doney|Fabry|Feely|Kleypas|2009}}. Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water,{{harvnb|Deutsch|Brix|Ito|Frenzel|2011}} its concentrations in the ocean are decreasing, and dead zones are expanding.{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}; {{cite web |title=Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms |date=5 September 2013 |url=https://www.epa.gov/nutrientpollution/climate-change-and-harmful-algal-blooms |publisher=EPA |access-date=11 September 2020}}

File:Tipping_points_2022_list.jpeg |access-date=31 January 2024 }}]]

{{Main|Tipping points in the climate system}}

Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through 'tipping points'—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state.{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=283}}.{{Harvnb|Carbon Brief, 10 February|2020}} For instance, the Greenland ice sheet is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5 °C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place.{{cite journal |last1=Bochow |first1=Nils |last2=Poltronieri |first2=Anna |last3=Robinson |first3=Alexander |last4=Montoya |first4=Marisa |last5=Rypdal |first5=Martin |last6=Boers |first6=Niklas |date=18 October 2023 |title=Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet |journal=Nature |volume=622 |issue=7983 |pages=528–536 |bibcode=2023Natur.622..528B |doi=10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9 |pmc=10584691 |pmid=37853149}} While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major ocean currents like the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs can unfold in a matter of decades.{{Cite journal |last1=Armstrong McKay |first1=David I. |last2=Staal |first2=Arie |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Winkelmann |first4=Ricarda |last5=Sakschewski |first5=Boris |last6=Loriani |first6=Sina |last7=Fetzer |first7=Ingo |last8=Cornell |first8=Sarah E. |last9=Rockström |first9=Johan |last10=Lenton |first10=Timothy M. |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 |journal=Science |volume=377 |issue=6611 |pages=eabn7950 |doi=10.1126/science.abn7950 |pmid=36074831 |hdl=10871/131584 |s2cid=252161375 |issn=0036-8075|hdl-access=free }} The collapse of the AMOC would be a severe climate catastrophe, resulting in a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere.{{Cite journal |last1=Ditlevsen |first1=Peter |last2=Ditlevsen |first2=Susanne |date=25 July 2023 |title=Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |journal=Nature Communications |language=en |volume=14 |issue=1 |pages=4254 |doi=10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w |pmid=37491344 |issn=2041-1723|pmc=10368695 |arxiv=2304.09160 |bibcode=2023NatCo..14.4254D }}

The long-term effects of climate change on oceans include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=21}} The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to {{CO2}}'s long atmospheric lifetime.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|pp=88–89|loc=FAQ 12.3}} The result is an estimated total sea level rise of {{convert|2.3|m/°C|ft/°F}} after 2000 years.{{harvnb|Smith|Schneider|Oppenheimer|Yohe|2009}}; {{harvnb|Levermann|Clark|Marzeion|Milne|2013}} Oceanic {{CO2}} uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1112}} Deep oceans (below {{convert|2000|m|ft}}) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date.{{cite journal |last1=Oschlies |first1=Andreas |title=A committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss |journal=Nature Communications |date=16 April 2021 |volume=12 |issue=1 |page=2307 |doi=10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4 |pmid=33863893 |pmc=8052459 |bibcode=2021NatCo..12.2307O }} Further, the West Antarctic ice sheet appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase the sea levels by at least {{convert|3.3|m|ftin|abbr=on}} over approximately 2000 years.{{Cite journal |last1=Lau |first1=Sally C. Y. |last2=Wilson |first2=Nerida G. |last3=Golledge |first3=Nicholas R. |last4=Naish |first4=Tim R. |last5=Watts |first5=Phillip C. |last6=Silva |first6=Catarina N. S. |last7=Cooke |first7=Ira R. |last8=Allcock |first8=A. Louise |last9=Mark |first9=Felix C. |last10=Linse |first10=Katrin |date=21 December 2023 |title=Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial |url=https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/58369/1/science.ade0664%281%29.pdf |journal=Science |volume=382 |issue=6677 |pages=1384–1389 |bibcode=2023Sci...382.1384L |doi=10.1126/science.ade0664 |pmid=38127761 |s2cid=266436146}}{{cite journal |last1=Naughten |first1=Kaitlin A. |last2=Holland |first2=Paul R. |last3=De Rydt |first3=Jan |date=23 October 2023 |title=Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=13 |issue=11 |pages=1222–1228 |bibcode=2023NatCC..13.1222N |doi=10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x |s2cid=264476246 |doi-access=free}}

{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans|Effects of climate change on biomes}}

Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher altitudes.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=218}}. For instance, the range of hundreds of North American birds has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5 km/year over the past 55 years.{{Cite journal |last1=Martins |first1=Paulo Mateus |last2=Anderson |first2=Marti J. |last3=Sweatman |first3=Winston L. |last4=Punnett |first4=Andrew J. |date=9 April 2024 |title=Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |language=en |volume=121 |issue=15 |pages=e2307525121 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2307525121 |issn=0027-8424 |pmc=11009622 |pmid=38557189 |bibcode=2024PNAS..12107525M }} Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear.{{Sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=133}} A related phenomenon driven by climate change is woody plant encroachment, affecting up to 500 million hectares globally.{{Cite journal |last1=Deng |first1=Yuanhong |last2=Li |first2=Xiaoyan |last3=Shi |first3=Fangzhong |last4=Hu |first4=Xia |date=December 2021 |title=Woody plant encroachment enhanced global vegetation greening and ecosystem water-use efficiency |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13386 |journal=Global Ecology and Biogeography |language=en |volume=30 |issue=12 |pages=2337–2353 |bibcode=2021GloEB..30.2337D |doi=10.1111/geb.13386 |issn=1466-822X |access-date=10 June 2024 |via=Wiley Online Library}} Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics.{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}; {{harvnb|Zeng|Yoon|2009}}. The size and speed of global warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely.{{Sfn|Turner|Calder|Cumming|Hughes|2020|p=1}} Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species.{{Sfn|Urban|2015}}

The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land.{{harvnb|Poloczanska|Brown|Sydeman|Kiessling|2013}}; {{harvnb|Lenoir|Bertrand|Comte|Bourgeaud|2020}} Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp, and seabirds.{{harvnb|Smale|Wernberg|Oliver|Thomsen|2019}} Ocean acidification makes it harder for marine calcifying organisms such as mussels, barnacles and corals to produce shells and skeletons; and heatwaves have bleached coral reefs.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=13}} Harmful algal blooms enhanced by climate change and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and cause great loss of marine life.{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}} Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=451}} Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects.{{Cite journal |last1=Azevedo-Schmidt |first1=Lauren |last2=Meineke |first2=Emily K. |last3=Currano |first3=Ellen D. |date=18 October 2022 |title=Insect herbivory within modern forests is greater than fossil localities |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |language=en |volume=119 |issue=42 |pages=e2202852119 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2202852119 |doi-access=free |pmid=36215482 |pmc=9586316 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11902852A |issn=0027-8424 }}

{{Main|Effects of climate change}}

[[File:20211109 Frequency of extreme weather for different degrees of global warming - bar chart IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Extreme weather will be progressively more common as the Earth warms.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|loc=Fig. SPM.6

|page=SPM-23}}]]

The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in the world.{{cite journal |last1=Lenton |first1=Timothy M. |last2=Xu |first2=Chi |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Ghadiali |first4=Ashish |last5=Loriani |first5=Sina |last6=Sakschewski |first6=Boris |last7=Zimm |first7=Caroline |last8=Ebi |first8=Kristie L. |last9=Dunn |first9=Robert R. |last10=Svenning |first10=Jens-Christian |last11=Scheffer |first11=Marten |title=Quantifying the human cost of global warming |journal=Nature Sustainability |year=2023 |volume=6 |issue=10 |pages=1237–1247 |doi=10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2023NatSu...6.1237L |hdl=10871/132650 |hdl-access=free }} Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions,{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014|pp=983, 1008}} with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the greatest risk.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014|p=1077}}. Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2|p=8}} The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2.3|p=13}}

{{Main|Effects of climate change on agriculture#Global food security and undernutrition|Effects of climate change on human health}}

The World Health Organization calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses.{{harvnb|Romanello|2023}} Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security.{{harvnb|Ebi et al.|2018}}{{harvnb|Romanello|2022}}{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022|p=9}} Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death. Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. It can affect transmission of infectious diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria. According to the World Economic Forum, 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050.{{harvnb|World Economic Forum|2024|p=4}} 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 June|2017}}{{harvnb|Mora et al.|2017}} By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch6|2022|p=988}}

While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already decreased the rate of yield growth. Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions. While agricultural productivity has been positively affected in some high latitude areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected. According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children.{{harvnb|World Economic Forum|2024|p=24}} With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch5|2022|p=748}} If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2 Technical Summary|2022|p=63}}

{{Further|Economic analysis of climate change|Climate security}}

Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences.{{harvnb|DeFries|Edenhofer|Halliday|Heal|2019|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Krogstrup|Oman|2019|p=10}}. Severe impacts are expected in South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources.{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cb7431en |title=Women's leadership and gender equality in climate action and disaster risk reduction in Africa − A call for action |publisher=FAO & The African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group |year=2021 |isbn=978-92-5-135234-2 |location=Accra |doi=10.4060/cb7431en |s2cid=243488592 }}{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|pp=796–797}} Heat stress can prevent outdoor labourers from working. If warming reaches 4 °C then labour capacity in those regions could be reduced by 30 to 50%.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=725}} The World Bank estimates that between 2016 and 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation.{{Sfn|Hallegatte|Bangalore|Bonzanigo|Fay|2016|p=12}}

Inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|p=796}}. Major difficulties in mitigating, adapting to, and recovering from climate shocks are faced by marginalized people who have less control over resources.Grabe, Grose and Dutt, 2014; FAO, 2011; FAO, 2021a; Fisher and Carr, 2015; IPCC, 2014; Resurrección et al., 2019; UNDRR, 2019; Yeboah et al., 2019. Indigenous people, who are subsistent on their land and ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change.{{Cite web |title=Climate Change {{!}} United Nations For Indigenous Peoples |url=https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/climate-change.html |access-date=29 April 2022 |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs}} An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in armed conflict has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.{{Sfn|Mach|Kraan|Adger|Buhaug|2019}}

While women are not inherently more at risk from climate change and shocks, limits on women's resources and discriminatory gender norms constrain their adaptive capacity and resilience.{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en |title=The status of women in agrifood systems – Overview |publisher=FAO |year=2023 |location=Rome |doi=10.4060/cc5060en |s2cid=258145984 |language=EN}} For example, women's work burdens, including hours worked in agriculture, tend to decline less than men's during climate shocks such as heat stress.

{{main|Climate migration}}

Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened by sea level rise, which makes urban flooding more common. Sometimes, land is permanently lost to the sea.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=328}} This could lead to statelessness for people in island nations, such as the Maldives and Tuvalu.{{harvnb|UNHCR|2011|p=3}}. In some regions, the rise in temperature and humidity may be too severe for humans to adapt to.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=399}} With worst-case climate change, models project that almost one-third of humanity might live in Sahara-like uninhabitable and extremely hot climates.{{harvnb|Balsari|Dresser|Leaning|2020}}

These factors can drive climate or environmental migration, within and between countries.{{harvnb|Cattaneo|Beine|Fröhlich|Kniveton|2019}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=15, 53}} More people are expected to be displaced because of sea level rise, extreme weather and conflict from increased competition over natural resources. Climate change may also increase vulnerability, leading to "trapped populations" who are not able to move due to a lack of resources.{{harvnb|Flavell|2014|p=38}}; {{harvnb|Kaczan|Orgill-Meyer|2020}}

{{detail|Climate change mitigation}}

File:Greenhouse gas emission scenarios 01.svg

Climate change can be mitigated by reducing the rate at which greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, and by increasing the rate at which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=125}}. To limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be net-zero by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2 °C target.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=12}} This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=15}}

The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that countries need to triple their pledges under the Paris Agreement within the next decade to limit global warming to 2 °C. An even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal.{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=XX}} With pledges made under the Paris Agreement as of 2024, there would be a 66% chance that global warming is kept under 2.8 °C by the end of the century (range: 1.9–3.7 °C, depending on exact implementation and technological progress). When only considering current policies, this raises to 3.1 °C.{{sfn|United Nations Environment Programme|2024|pp=33, 34}} Globally, limiting warming to 2 °C may result in higher economic benefits than economic costs.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch3|2022|p=300}}: "The global benefits of pathways limiting warming to 2 °C (>67%) outweigh global mitigation costs over the 21st century, if aggregated economic impacts of climate change are at the moderate to high end of the assessed range, and a weight consistent with economic theory is given to economic impacts over the long term. This holds true even without accounting for benefits in other sustainable development dimensions or nonmarket damages from climate change (medium confidence)."

Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C,{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=109}}. most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions.{{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxiii}}. To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry,{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}} such as preventing deforestation and restoring natural ecosystems by reforestation.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=266}}: "Where reforestation is the restoration of natural ecosystems, it benefits both carbon sequestration and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services."

Other approaches to mitigating climate change have a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C typically project the large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal methods over the 21st century.{{harvnb|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}} There are concerns, though, about over-reliance on these technologies, and environmental impacts.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is a proposal for reducing global warming by reflecting some sunlight away from Earth and back into space. Because it does not reduce greenhouse gas concentrations, it would not address ocean acidification{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch5|2021|pp=|p=768}} and is not considered mitigation.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|p=619}} SRM should be considered only as a supplement to mitigation, not a replacement for it,{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|p=624}} due to risks such as rapid warming if it were abruptly stopped and not restarted.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|p=629}} The most-studied approach is stratospheric aerosol injection.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch14|2022|pp=|p=1494}} SRM could reduce global warming and some of its impacts, though imperfectly.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|p=625}} It poses environmental risks, such as changes to rainfall patterns,{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021|pp=625-627}} as well as political challenges, such as who would decide whether to use it.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch14|2022|pp=|p=1494}}

{{Main|Sustainable energy|Sustainable transport}}

File:Global Energy Consumption.svg sources even as renewables have begun rapidly increasing.{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}]]

File:Lisberg Burg Windräder Solar power PC313027.jpg

Renewable energy is key to limiting climate change. For decades, fossil fuels have accounted for roughly 80% of the world's energy use.{{harvnb|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023|pp=18}} The remaining share has been split between nuclear power and renewables (including hydropower, bioenergy, wind and solar power and geothermal energy).{{harvnb|REN21|2020|p=32|loc=Fig.1}}. Fossil fuel use is expected to peak in absolute terms prior to 2030 and then to decline, with coal use experiencing the sharpest reductions.{{harvnb|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023|pp=18,26}} Renewables represented 86% of all new electricity generation installed in 2023.{{cite web |title=Record Growth in Renewables, but Progress Needs to be Equitable |url=https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2024/Mar/Record-Growth-in-Renewables-but-Progress-Needs-to-be-Equitable |website=IRENA |date=27 March 2024}} Other forms of clean energy, such as nuclear and hydropower, currently have a larger share of the energy supply. However, their future growth forecasts appear limited in comparison.{{harvnb|IEA|2021|p=57, Fig 2.5}}; {{harvnb|Teske|Pregger|Naegler|Simon|2019|p=180, Table 8.1}}

While solar panels and onshore wind are now among the cheapest forms of adding new power generation capacity in many locations,{{harvnb|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}}; {{harvnb| IEA – Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020}} green energy policies are needed to achieve a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables.{{cite web |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/ |title=IPCC Working Group III report: Mitigation of Climate Change |date=4 April 2022 |access-date=19 January 2024 |publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|loc=Figure 2.15|p=131}}{{harvnb|Teske|2019|pp=409–410}}.

Electricity generated from renewable sources would also need to become the main energy source for heating and transport.{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3|p=XXIII}}; {{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxvii, Fig.5}}. Transport can switch away from internal combustion engine vehicles and towards electric vehicles, public transit, and active transport (cycling and walking).{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=142–144}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3 & p. 49}}{{Cite web |year=2016 |title=Transport emissions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en |access-date=2 January 2022 |website=Climate action |publisher=European Commission |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211010225533/https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en |archive-date=10 October 2021 |url-status=live}} For shipping and flying, low-carbon fuels would reduce emissions. Heating could be increasingly decarbonized with technologies like heat pumps.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|p=697}}; {{harvnb|NREL|2017|pp=vi, 12}}

There are obstacles to the continued rapid growth of clean energy, including renewables.{{harvnb|Berrill|Arvesen|Scholz|Gils|2016}}. Wind and solar produce energy intermittently and with seasonal variability. Traditionally, hydro dams with reservoirs and fossil fuel power plants have been used when variable energy production is low. Going forward, battery storage can be expanded, energy demand and supply can be matched, and long-distance transmission can smooth variability of renewable outputs.{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=46}}; {{harvnb|Vox, 20 September|2019}}; {{cite journal |title=The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation |year=2018 |last1=Sepulveda |first1=Nestor A. |last2=Jenkins |first2=Jesse D. |last3=De Sisternes |first3=Fernando J. |last4=Lester |first4=Richard K. |journal=Joule |volume=2 |issue=11 |pages=2403–2420 |doi=10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2018Joule...2.2403S }} Bioenergy is often not carbon-neutral and may have negative consequences for food security.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=324–325}}. The growth of nuclear power is constrained by controversy around radioactive waste, nuclear weapon proliferation, and accidents.{{Citec|last1=Gill |first1=Matthew |last2=Livens |first2=Francis |last3=Peakman |first3=Aiden |in=Letcher |year=2020 |pages=147–149 |chapter=Nuclear Fission}}{{Cite journal |last1=Horvath |first1=Akos |last2=Rachlew |first2=Elisabeth |date=January 2016 |title=Nuclear power in the 21st century: Challenges and possibilities |journal=Ambio |volume=45 |issue=Suppl 1 |pages=S38–49 |doi=10.1007/s13280-015-0732-y |issn=1654-7209 |pmc=4678124 |pmid=26667059|bibcode=2016Ambio..45S..38H }} Hydropower growth is limited by the fact that the best sites have been developed, and new projects are confronting increased social and environmental concerns.{{cite web |title=Hydropower |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/hydropower |website=iea.org |publisher=International Energy Agency |access-date=12 October 2020 |quote=Hydropower generation is estimated to have increased by over 2% in 2019 owing to continued recovery from drought in Latin America as well as strong capacity expansion and good water availability in China (...) capacity expansion has been losing speed. This downward trend is expected to continue, due mainly to less large-project development in China and Brazil, where concerns over social and environmental impacts have restricted projects.}}

Low-carbon energy improves human health by minimizing climate change as well as reducing air pollution deaths,{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1854}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}} which were estimated at 7 million annually in 2016.{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1837}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2016}} Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about a million of those lives per year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could save millions and simultaneously increase energy security and reduce poverty.{{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}; {{harvnb|Vandyck|Keramidas|Kitous|Spadaro|2018}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=97}}: "Limiting warming to 1.5 °C can be achieved synergistically with poverty alleviation and improved energy security and can provide large public health benefits through improved air quality, preventing millions of premature deaths. However, specific mitigation measures, such as bioenergy, may result in trade-offs that require consideration." Improving air quality also has economic benefits which may be larger than mitigation costs.{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022|p=300}}

{{Main|Efficient energy use|Energy conservation}}

Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=97}} If less energy is needed, there is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the electricity grid, and minimizes carbon-intensive infrastructure development.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|p=29}}; {{harvnb|IEA|2020b}} Major increases in energy efficiency investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level of investment in renewable energy.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=155|loc=Fig. 2.27}} Several COVID-19 related changes in energy use patterns, energy efficiency investments, and funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult and uncertain.{{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}

Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In the transport sector, passengers and freight can switch to more efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric vehicles.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=142}} Industrial strategies to reduce energy demand include improving heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products, and increasing product lifetimes.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=138–140}} In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings, and higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=141–142}} The use of technologies like heat pumps can also increase building energy efficiency.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|pp=686–694}}.

{{See also|Sustainable agriculture|Green industrial policy}}

File:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector.svg Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing the further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand.{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|p=1}} A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two-thirds from 2010 levels. These include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|pp=1, 3}}

On the demand side, a key component of reducing emissions is shifting people towards plant-based diets.{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=22|loc=B.6.2}} Eliminating the production of livestock for meat and dairy would eliminate about 3/4ths of all emissions from agriculture and other land use.{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=487,488|loc=FIGURE 5.12}} Humans on a vegan exclusive diet would save about 7.9 Gt{{CO2}} equivalent per year by 2050 {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=51}} Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use used an average of 12 Gt{{CO2}} per year between 2007 and 2016 (23% of total anthropogenic emissions). Livestock also occupy 37% of ice-free land area on Earth and consume feed from the 12% of land area used for crops, driving deforestation and land degradation.{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=82, 162|loc=FIGURE 1.1}}

Steel and cement production are responsible for about 13% of industrial {{CO2}} emissions. In these industries, carbon-intensive materials such as coke and lime play an integral role in the production, so that reducing {{CO2}} emissions requires research into alternative chemistries.{{cite web|title=Low and zero emissions in the steel and cement industries|url=https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/GGSD2019_IssuePaper_CementSteel.pdf|pages=11, 19–22}} Where energy production or {{CO2}}-intensive heavy industries continue to produce waste {{CO2}}, technology can sometimes be used to capture and store most of the gas instead of releasing it to the atmosphere.{{Cite web |last1=Lebling |first1=Katie |last2=Gangotra |first2=Ankita |last3=Hausker |first3=Karl |last4=Byrum |first4=Zachary |date=13 November 2023 |title=7 Things to Know About Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration |url=https://www.wri.org/insights/carbon-capture-technology |publisher=World Resources Institute |language=en}}50x50px Text was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License This technology, carbon capture and storage (CCS), could have a critical but limited role in reducing emissions. It is relatively expensive{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|p=38}} and has been deployed only to an extent that removes around 0.1% of annual greenhouse gas emissions.

{{Main|Carbon dioxide removal|Carbon sequestration}}

File:Carbon Dioxide Partitioning.svgs, including plant growth, soil uptake, and ocean uptake (2020 Global Carbon Budget).]]

Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of {{CO2}} beyond naturally occurring levels.{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}: {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=189–193}}. Reforestation and afforestation (planting forests where there were none before) are among the most mature sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food security concerns.{{harvnb|Kreidenweis|Humpenöder|Stevanović|Bodirsky|2016}} Farmers can promote sequestration of carbon in soils through practices such as use of winter cover crops, reducing the intensity and frequency of tillage, and using compost and manure as soil amendments.{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=95–102}} Forest and landscape restoration yields many benefits for the climate, including greenhouse gas emissions sequestration and reduction. Restoration/recreation of coastal wetlands, prairie plots and seagrass meadows increases the uptake of carbon into organic matter.{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=45–54}}{{Cite journal |last1=Nelson |first1=J. D. J. |last2=Schoenau |first2=J. J. |last3=Malhi |first3=S. S. |date=1 October 2008 |title=Soil organic carbon changes and distribution in cultivated and restored grassland soils in Saskatchewan |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-008-9175-1 |journal=Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems |language=en |volume=82 |issue=2 |pages=137–148 |doi=10.1007/s10705-008-9175-1 |bibcode=2008NCyAg..82..137N |s2cid=24021984 |issn=1573-0867}} When carbon is sequestered in soils and in organic matter such as trees, there is a risk of the carbon being re-released into the atmosphere later through changes in land use, fire, or other changes in ecosystems.{{harvnb|Ruseva|Hedrick|Marland|Tovar|2020}}

The use of bioenergy in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can result in net negative emissions as {{CO2}} is drawn from the atmosphere.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=125}}; {{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}. It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal techniques will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide removal increase the risk of global warming rising beyond international goals.{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}

{{main|Climate change adaptation}}

Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects".IPCC, 2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf Summary for Policymakers] [H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp. 3–33, {{doi|10.1017/9781009325844.001}}.{{rp|5}} Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=17}} More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively expensive.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=396–397}} The capacity and potential for humans to adapt is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007|p=796}}. The first two decades of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most low- and middle-income countries with improved access to basic sanitation and electricity, but progress is slow. Many countries have implemented adaptation policies. However, there is a considerable gap between necessary and available finance.{{sfn|UNEP|2018|pp=xii–xiii}}

Adaptation to sea level rise consists of avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding, and building flood controls. If that fails, managed retreat may be needed.{{Cite journal |last1=Stephens |first1=Scott A. |last2=Bell |first2=Robert G. |last3=Lawrence |first3=Judy |year=2018 |title=Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise |journal=Environmental Research Letters |volume=13 |issue=10 |at=104004 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aadf96 |bibcode=2018ERL....13j4004S |issn=1748-9326 |doi-access=free}} There are economic barriers for tackling dangerous heat impact. Avoiding strenuous work or having air conditioning is not possible for everybody.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=402}} In agriculture, adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification, erosion control, and genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate.{{sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}} Insurance allows for risk-sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes.{{Cite journal |last1=Surminski |first1=Swenja |last2=Bouwer |first2=Laurens M. |last3=Linnerooth-Bayer |first3=Joanne |year=2016 |title=How insurance can support climate resilience |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2979 |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=6 |issue=4 |pages=333–334 |doi=10.1038/nclimate2979 |bibcode=2016NatCC...6..333S |issn=1758-6798}} Education, migration and early warning systems can reduce climate vulnerability.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=336–337}} Planting mangroves or encouraging other coastal vegetation can buffer storms.{{Cite web |title=Mangroves against the storm |url=https://social.shorthand.com/IUCN_forests/nCec1jyqvn/mangroves-against-the-storm.html |access-date=20 January 2023 |website=Shorthand |language=en}}{{Cite web |title=How marsh grass could help protect us from climate change |url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/how-marsh-grass-protects-shorelines/ |access-date=20 January 2023 |website=World Economic Forum |date=24 October 2021 |language=en}}

Ecosystems adapt to climate change, a process that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing connectivity between ecosystems, species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can also be introduced to areas acquiring a favourable climate. Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural areas helps build resilience, making it easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that promote adaptation in ecosystems, also help humans adapt via ecosystem-based adaptation. For instance, restoration of natural fire regimes makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving rivers more space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate impacts.{{Cite journal |last1=Morecroft |first1=Michael D. |last2=Duffield |first2=Simon |last3=Harley |first3=Mike |last4=Pearce-Higgins |first4=James W. |last5=Stevens |first5=Nicola |last6=Watts |first6=Olly |last7=Whitaker |first7=Jeanette |display-authors=4 |year=2019 |title=Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems |journal=Science |volume=366 |issue=6471 |page=eaaw9256 |doi=10.1126/science.aaw9256 |issn=0036-8075 |pmid=31831643 |s2cid=209339286 |doi-access=free}}

There are synergies but also trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.{{Cite journal |last1=Berry |first1=Pam M. |last2=Brown |first2=Sally |last3=Chen |first3=Minpeng |last4=Kontogianni |first4=Areti |last5=Rowlands |first5=Olwen |last6=Simpson |first6=Gillian |last7=Skourtos |first7=Michalis |display-authors=4 |year=2015 |title=Cross-sectoral interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |journal=Climate Change |volume=128 |issue=3 |pages=381–393 |bibcode=2015ClCh..128..381B |doi=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |issn=1573-1480 |s2cid=153904466|hdl=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |hdl-access=free }} An example for synergy is increased food productivity, which has large benefits for both adaptation and mitigation.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=54}}. An example of a trade-off is that increased use of air conditioning allows people to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand. Another trade-off example is that more compact urban development may reduce emissions from transport and construction, but may also increase the urban heat island effect, exposing people to heat-related health risks.{{Cite journal |last=Sharifi |first=Ayyoob |year=2020 |title=Trade-offs and conflicts between urban climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: A literature review |journal=Journal of Cleaner Production |volume=276 |page=122813 |doi=10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122813 |bibcode=2020JCPro.27622813S |s2cid=225638176 |issn=0959-6526 |url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620328584}}

{{See also|Politics of climate change|Climate change mitigation#Policies}}

File:Climate_Change_Performance_Index_(2023).svg ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).

Countries that are most vulnerable to climate change have typically been responsible for a small share of global emissions. This raises questions about justice and fairness.{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Section 3|p=17}} Limiting global warming makes it much easier to achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The connection is recognized in Sustainable Development Goal 13 which is to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts".{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=447}}; United Nations (2017) Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 6 July 2017, Work of the Statistical Commission pertaining to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development ([https://undocs.org/A/RES/71/313 A/RES/71/313]) The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem protection have synergies with climate mitigation.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=477}}

The geopolitics of climate change is complex. It has often been framed as a free-rider problem, in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a low-carbon economy themselves. Sometimes mitigation also has localized benefits though. For instance, the benefits of a coal phase-out to public health and local environments exceed the costs in almost all regions.{{harvnb|Rauner|Bauer|Dirnaichner|Van Dingenen|2020}} Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win economically from switching to clean energy, causing net exporters to face stranded assets: fossil fuels they cannot sell.{{harvnb|Mercure|Pollitt|Viñuales|Edwards|2018}}

{{Further|Climate policy}}

A wide range of policies, regulations, and laws are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019, carbon pricing covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.{{harvnb|World Bank, June|2019|p=12|loc=Box 1}} Carbon can be priced with carbon taxes and emissions trading systems.{{harvnb|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}}; {{harvnb|Hagmann|Ho|Loewenstein|2019}}. Direct global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319 billion in 2017, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1866}} Ending these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths.{{harvnb|UN Human Development Report|2020|p=10}} Money saved on fossil subsidies could be used to support the transition to clean energy instead.{{harvnb|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019|p=iv}} More direct methods to reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry.{{harvnb|ICCT|2019|p=iv}}; {{harvnb|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}} Several countries require utilities to increase the share of renewables in power production.{{harvnb|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}}; {{harvnb|European Parliament, February|2020}}

Policy designed through the lens of climate justice tries to address human rights issues and social inequality. According to proponents of climate justice, the costs of climate adaptation should be paid by those most responsible for climate change, while the beneficiaries of payments should be those suffering impacts. One way this can be addressed in practice is to have wealthy nations pay poorer countries to adapt.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 16 October|2021}}

Oxfam found that in 2023 the wealthiest 10% of people were responsible for 50% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% were responsible for just 8%.{{Cite journal|title=Climate Equality: A planet for the 99% |last1=Khalfan|first1=Ashfaq|last2=Lewis|first2=Astrid Nilsson|last3=Aguilar|first3=Carlos|last4=Persson|first4=Jacqueline|last5=Lawson|first5=Max|last6=Dab|first6=Nafkote|last7=Jayoussi|first7=Safa|last8=Acharya|first8=Sunil|date=November 2023|website=Oxfam Digital Repository |publisher=Oxfam GB |doi=10.21201/2023.000001|url=https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621551/cr-climate-equality-201123-en-summ.pdf|access-date=18 December 2023}} Production of emissions is another way to look at responsibility: under that approach, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative climate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025–2050.{{cite journal |last1=Grasso |first1=Marco |last2=Heede |first2=Richard |title=Time to pay the piper: Fossil fuel companies' reparations for climate damages |journal=One Earth |date=19 May 2023 |volume=6 |issue=5 |pages=459–463 |doi=10.1016/j.oneear.2023.04.012 |bibcode=2023OEart...6..459G |bibcode-access=free |s2cid=258809532 |s2cid-access=free |doi-access=free |hdl=10281/416137 |hdl-access=free }} To achieve a just transition, people working in the fossil fuel sector would also need other jobs, and their communities would need investments.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}}.

{{Further|United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}}

File:Total CO2 by Region.svg

File:Per Capita CO2 by Region.svg

Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}} The goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.{{harvnb|UNFCCC|1992|loc=Article 2}}. As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can be sustained.{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007|p=97}}. The UNFCCC does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for protocols that do. Global emissions have risen since the UNFCCC was signed.{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}. Its yearly conferences are the stage of global negotiations.{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}}

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions.{{harvnb|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}; {{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}. During the negotiations, the G77 (representing developing countries) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions,{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}; {{harvnb|Grubb|2003}}. since developed countries contributed most to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Per-capita emissions were also still relatively low in developing countries and developing countries would need to emit more to meet their development needs.{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.

The 2009 Copenhagen Accord has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.{{harvnb|Müller|2010}}; {{harvnb|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}}; {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}; {{harvnb|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}. Associated parties aimed to limit the global temperature rise to below 2 °C.{{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}. The Accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the Green Climate Fund.{{cite conference |date=7–18 December 2009 |title=Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change |url=http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php |location=Copenhagen |id=un document= FCCC/CP/2009/L.7 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101018074452/http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php |archive-date=18 October 2010 |access-date=24 October 2010 |url-status=live}} {{As of|2020|}}, only 83.3 billion were delivered. Only in 2023 the target is expected to be achieved.{{cite news |last1=Bennett |first1=Paige |title=High-Income Nations Are on Track Now to Meet $100 Billion Climate Pledges, but They're Late |url=https://www.ecowatch.com/wealthy-countries-climate-change-reparations.html |access-date=10 May 2023 |agency=Ecowatch |date=2 May 2023}}

In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under {{val|1.5|u=°C}}.{{sfn|Paris Agreement|2015}} The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set of procedures was made binding. Countries have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate these goals every five years.{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}}. The Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be financially supported.{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=5}}. {{As of|March 2025}}, 194 states and the European Union have acceded to or ratified the agreement.{{cite web |title=Status of Treaties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |url=https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en |access-date=31 March 2025 |website=United Nations Treaty Collection}}; {{harvnb|Salon, 25 September|2019}}.

The 1987 Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to phase out production of ozone-depleting gases, has had benefits for climate change mitigation.{{harvnb|Velders|Andersen|Daniel|Fahey|McFarland|2007}}; {{harvnb|Young|Harper|Huntingford|Paul|Morgenstern|Newman|Oman|Madronich|Garcia|2021}} Several ozone-depleting gases like chlorofluorocarbons are powerful greenhouse gases, so banning their production and usage may have avoided a temperature rise of 0.5 °C–1.0 °C,{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|pp=20, 31}} as well as additional warming by preventing damage to vegetation from ultraviolet radiation.{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|pp=20, 35}}; {{harvnb|Young|Harper|Huntingford|Paul|Morgenstern|Newman|Oman|Madronich|Garcia|2021}} It is estimated that the agreement has been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so.{{harvnb|Goyal|England|Sen Gupta|Jucker|2019}}; {{harvnb|Velders|Andersen|Daniel|Fahey|McFarland|2007}} The most recent amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the 2016 Kigali Amendment, committed to reducing the emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases and are also potent greenhouse gases.{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 21 November|2017}} Should countries comply with the amendment, a warming of 0.3 °C–0.5 °C is estimated to be avoided.{{harvnb|WMO SAOD Executive Summary|2022|p=15}}; {{harvnb|Velders|Daniel|Montzka|Vimont|Rigby|Krummel|Muhle|O'Doherty|Prinn,|Weiss|Young|2022}}

File:Annual-co2-emissions-by-region-2022.png. This measures fossil fuel and industry emissions. Land use change is not included.{{cite web |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region |title=Annual {{CO2}} emissions by world region |website=ourworldindata.org |publisher=Our World in Data |format=chart|access-date=18 September 2024}}]]

In 2019, the United Kingdom parliament became the first national government to declare a climate emergency.{{Harvnb|BBC, 1 May|2019}}; {{Harvnb|Vice, 2 May|2019}}. Other countries and jurisdictions followed suit.{{harvnb|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}. That same year, the European Parliament declared a "climate and environmental emergency".{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}} The European Commission presented its European Green Deal with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.{{harvnb|Politico, 11 December|2019}}. In 2021, the European Commission released its "Fit for 55" legislation package, which contains guidelines for the car industry; all new cars on the European market must be zero-emission vehicles from 2035.{{cite news |title=European Green Deal: Commission proposes transformation of EU economy and society to meet climate ambitions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3541 |work=European Commission |date=14 July 2021}}

Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral by 2050, and China by 2060.{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}} While India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a significant expansion of coal in the country.{{cite web |date=15 September 2021 |title=India |url=https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/ |access-date=3 October 2021 |website=Climate Action Tracker}} Vietnam is among very few coal-dependent, fast-developing countries that pledged to phase out unabated coal power by the 2040s or as soon as possible thereafter.{{cite journal |last1=Do |first1=Thang Nam |last2=Burke |first2=Paul J. |title=Phasing out coal power in a developing country context: Insights from Vietnam |journal=Energy Policy |year=2023 |volume=176 |issue=May 2023 113512 |page=113512 |doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113512|bibcode=2023EnPol.17613512D |s2cid=257356936 |hdl=1885/286612 |hdl-access=free }}

As of 2021, based on information from 48 national climate plans, which represent 40% of the parties to the Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.{{harvnb|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021|pp=4–5}}; {{cite news |author=UNFCCC Press Office |date=26 February 2021 |title=Greater Climate Ambition Urged as Initial NDC Synthesis Report Is Published |url=https://unfccc.int/news/greater-climate-ambition-urged-as-initial-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published |access-date=21 April 2021}}

{{Further|Climate change denial|Fossil fuels lobby}}

File:20200327 Climate change deniers cherry picking time periods.gif from short periods to falsely assert that global temperatures are not rising. Blue trendlines show short periods that mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). Blue rectangle with blue dots shows the so-called global warming hiatus.{{sfn|Stover|2014}}]]

Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and misinformation, which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly Canada and Australia. Climate change denial has originated from fossil fuel companies, industry groups, conservative think tanks, and contrarian scientists.{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|pp=144, [https://books.google.com/books?id=RsYr_iQUs6QC&pg=PA155 155]}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}} Like the tobacco industry, the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt about climate-change related scientific data and results.{{harvnb|Oreskes|Conway|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}} People who hold unwarranted doubt about climate change are called climate change "skeptics", although "contrarians" or "deniers" are more appropriate terms.{{harvnb|O'Neill|Boykoff|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}

There are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimize the negative impacts of climate change.{{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}} Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a manufactured controversy: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community to delay policy changes.{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2015|p=308}}. Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions,{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|p=146}}. and questioning the motives of individual scientists. An echo chamber of climate-denying blogs and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.{{harvnb|Harvey|Van den Berg|Ellers|Kampen|2018}}

{{Further|Climate communication|Media coverage of climate change|Public opinion on climate change}}

File:20220629 Public estimates of scientific consensus on climate change - horizontal bar chart.svg |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |s2cid=213454806}}{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2=Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |journal=Environmental Research Letters |date=20 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |bibcode=2021ERL....16j4030M |s2cid=239047650 |doi-access=free }} found scientific consensus to range from 98.7 to 100%.]]

Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s.{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}} Due to media coverage in the early 1990s, people often confused climate change with other environmental issues like ozone depletion.{{harvnb|Newell|2006|p=80}}; {{harvnb|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}} In popular culture, the climate fiction movie The Day After Tomorrow (2004) and the Al Gore documentary An Inconvenient Truth (2006) focused on climate change.

Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public concern for, and understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some countries, women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat.{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=10}}. College biology textbooks from the 2010s featured less content on climate change compared to those from the preceding decade, with decreasing emphasis on solutions.{{Cite web |last1=Preston |first1=Caroline |last2=Hechinger |date=1 October 2023 |title=In Some Textbooks, Climate Change Content Is Few and Far Between |url=https://undark.org/2023/01/10/in-some-textbooks-climate-change-content-is-few-and-far-between/ |website=undark.org/}} Partisan gaps also exist in many countries,{{harvnb|Pew|2020|}}. and countries with high CO₂ emissions tend to be less concerned.{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=15}}. Views on causes of climate change vary widely between countries.{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=7}}. Media coverage linked to protests has had impacts on public sentiment as well as on which aspects of climate change are focused upon.{{Cite web |last=Gulliver |first=Robyn |date=3 November 2021 |title=A Comparative Analysis of Australian Media Coverage of the 2019 Climate Protests |url=https://commonslibrary.org/a-comparative-analysis-of-australian-media-coverage-of-the-2019-climate-protests/ |access-date=5 March 2025 |website=The Commons Social Change Library |language=en-AU}} Higher levels of worry are associated with stronger public support for policies that address climate change.{{harvnb|Smith|Leiserowitz|2013|p=943}}. Concern has increased over time,{{harvnb|Pew|2020|}}; {{harvnb|UNDP|2024|pp=22–26}} and in 2021 a majority of citizens in 30 countries expressed a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency.{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=9}}; {{harvnb|UNDP|2021|p=15}}. A 2024 survey across 125 countries found that 89% of the global population demanded intensified political action, but systematically underestimated other peoples' willingness to act.{{cite news |last1=Carrington |first1=Damian |title='Spiral of silence': climate action is very popular, so why don't people realise it? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/22/spiral-of-silence-climate-action-very-popular-why-dont-people-realise |access-date=22 April 2025 |agency=The Guardian |date=22 April 2025}}{{cite journal |last1=Andre |first1=Peter |last2=Boneva |first2=Teodora |last3=Chopra |first3=Felix |last4=Falk |first4=Armin |title=Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action |journal=Nature Climate Change |date=9 February 2024 |volume=14 |issue=3 |pages=253–259 |doi=10.1038/s41558-024-01925-3 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01925-3 |access-date=22 April 2025}}

{{Main|Climate movement|Climate change litigation}}

Climate protests demand that political leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form of public demonstrations, fossil fuel divestment, lawsuits and other activities.{{harvnb|Gunningham|2018}}.{{Cite web |last=Hartley |first=Sophie |date=10 October 2023 |title=Climate Activism: Start Here |url=https://commonslibrary.org/climate-activism-start-here/ |access-date=5 March 2025 |website=The Commons Social Change Library |language=en-AU}} Prominent demonstrations include the School Strike for Climate. In this initiative, young people across the globe have been protesting since 2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish activist and then-teenager Greta Thunberg.{{harvnb|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}; {{harvnb|Boulianne|Lalancette|Ilkiw|2020}}. Mass civil disobedience actions by groups like Extinction Rebellion have protested by disrupting roads and public transport.{{harvnb|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}.

Litigation is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action from public institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change.{{cite news |last=Connolly |first=Kate |date=29 April 2021 |title='Historic' German ruling says climate goals not tough enough |url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/29/historic-german-ruling-says-climate-goals-not-tough-enough |access-date=1 May 2021 |work=The Guardian}} Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for loss and damage.{{harvnb|Setzer|Byrnes|2019}}.

{{Broader|History of climate change science}}

File:19120814 Coal Consumption Affecting Climate - Rodney and Otamatea Times.jpg, March 1912, p. 341.]]

Scientists in the 19th century such as Alexander von Humboldt began to foresee the effects of climate change.{{cite book |last=Nord |first=D. C. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=KmMGEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA51 |title=Nordic Perspectives on the Responsible Development of the Arctic: Pathways to Action |publisher=Springer International Publishing |year=2020 |isbn=978-3-030-52324-4 |series=Springer Polar Sciences |page=51 |access-date=11 March 2023}}{{cite book |last1=Mukherjee |first1=A. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=17vbDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA331 |title=Global Groundwater: Source, Scarcity, Sustainability, Security, and Solutions |last2=Scanlon |first2=B. R. |last3=Aureli |first3=A. |last4=Langan |first4=S. |last5=Guo |first5=H. |last6=McKenzie |first6=A. A. |publisher=Elsevier Science |year=2020 |isbn=978-0-12-818173-7 |page=331 |access-date=11 March 2023}}{{cite book | last1=von Humboldt | first1=A. | last2=Wulf | first2=A. | title=Selected Writings of Alexander von Humboldt: Edited and Introduced by Andrea Wulf | publisher=Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group | series=Everyman's Library Classics Series | year=2018 | isbn=978-1-101-90807-5 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=xal2DwAAQBAJ&pg=PR10 | access-date=11 March 2023 | page=10}}{{cite book |last1=Erdkamp |first1=Paul |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ZbdMEAAAQBAJ&pg=PR6 |title=Climate Change and Ancient Societies in Europe and the Near East: Diversity in Collapse and Resilience |last2=Manning |first2=Joseph G. |author-link2=Joseph Manning (historian) |last3=Verboven |first3=Koenraad |publisher=Springer International Publishing |year=2021 |isbn=978-3-030-81103-7 |series=Palgrave Studies in Ancient Economies |page=6 |access-date=11 March 2023}} In the 1820s, Joseph Fourier proposed the greenhouse effect to explain why Earth's temperature was higher than the Sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's atmosphere is transparent to sunlight, so sunlight reaches the surface where it is converted to heat. However, the atmosphere is not transparent to heat radiating from the surface, and captures some of that heat, which in turn warms the planet.{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA10 10–14]}}

In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the Sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and that the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide ({{co2}}). She concluded that "An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature..."{{cite journal |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6xhFAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA382 |last=Foote |first=Eunice |title=Circumstances affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays |journal=The American Journal of Science and Arts |date=November 1856 |volume=22 |pages=382–383 |access-date=31 January 2016 |via=Google Books}}{{harvnb|Huddleston|2019}}

File:Tyndalls setup for measuring radiant heat absorption by gases annotated.svg measured how much various gases in a tube absorb and emit infrared radiation—which humans experience as heat.]]

Starting in 1859,{{harvnb|Tyndall|1861}}. John Tyndall established that nitrogen and oxygen—together totalling 99% of dry air—are transparent to radiated heat. However, water vapour and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat into the atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may have caused climatic changes in the past, including ice ages.{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA39 39–42]}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=[http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article3.html Tyndall]}}

Svante Arrhenius noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but the {{co2}} concentration in air was influenced by long-term geological processes. Warming from increased {{co2}} levels would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a positive feedback loop. In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, projecting that halving {{co2}} levels could have produced a drop in temperature initiating an ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling {{co2}} to be around 5–6 °C.{{sfn|Lapenis|1998}} Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed that the greenhouse effect was saturated so that adding more {{co2}} would make no difference, and that the climate would be self-regulating.{{harvnb|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=[http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article4.html Arrhenius]}} Beginning in 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar published evidence that climate was warming and {{co2}} levels were rising,{{harvnb|Callendar|1938}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2007}}. but his calculations met the same objections.

{{see also|Scientific consensus on climate change}}

File:20211103 Academic studies of scientific consensus - global warming, climate change - vertical bar chart - en.svg |volume=11 |issue=4 |page=048002 |bibcode= 2016ERL....11d8002C |doi= 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 |doi-access=free|hdl=1983/34949783-dac1-4ce7-ad95-5dc0798930a6 |hdl-access=free }} A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%, and a 2021 study concluded that consensus exceeded 99%. Another 2021 study found that 98.7% of climate experts indicated that the Earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity.{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2= Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |journal= Environmental Research Letters |date=20 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |doi= 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |bibcode= 2021ERL....16j4030M |s2cid= 239047650 |doi-access=free}}]]

In the 1950s, Gilbert Plass created a detailed computer model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum. This model predicted that increasing {{co2}} levels would cause warming. Around the same time, Hans Suess found evidence that {{co2}} levels had been rising, and Roger Revelle showed that the oceans would not absorb the increase. The two scientists subsequently helped Charles Keeling to begin a record of continued increase—the "Keeling Curve"—which was part of continued scientific investigation through the 1960s into possible human causation of global warming.{{harvnb|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}} Studies such as the National Research Council's 1979 Charney Report supported the accuracy of climate models that forecast significant warming.{{Cite book |last1=Charney |first1=Jule |url=https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/12181/chapter/1 |title=Carbon Dioxide and Climate : A Scientific Assessment |last2=Arakawa |first2=Akio |last3=Baker |first3=D. James |last4=Bolin |first4=Bert |last5=Dickinson |first5=Robert E |last6=Goody |first6=Richard M |last7=Leith |first7=Cecil |last8=Stommel |first8=Henry |last9=Wunsch |first9=Carl |date=1979 |publisher=National Academies Press |doi=10.17226/12181 |isbn=978-0-309-11910-8 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240424115644/https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/12181/chapter/1 |archive-date=24 April 2024}} Human causation of observed global warming and dangers of unmitigated warming were publicly presented in James Hansen's 1988 testimony before a US Senate committee.{{cite news |page=1 | title= Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate| first1= Philip|last1=Shabecoff | url= https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html| newspaper= New York Times |date= 24 June 1988 | access-date= 1 August 2012 | quote = ...Dr. James E. Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration told a Congressional committee that it was 99 percent certain that the warming trend was not a natural variation but was caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide and other artificial gases in the atmosphere.}} The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred interdisciplinary research.{{harvnb|Weart|2013|p=3567}}. As part of the IPCC reports, scientists assess the scientific discussion that takes place in peer-reviewed journal articles.{{harvnb|Royal Society|2005}}.

There is a near-complete scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused by human activities. As of 2019, agreement in recent literature reached over 99%.{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |access-date=15 November 2020 |s2cid=213454806}}{{Cite journal |last1=Lynas |first1=Mark |last2=Houlton |first2=Benjamin Z |last3=Perry |first3=Simon |year=2021 |title=Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature |journal=Environmental Research Letters |volume=16 |issue=11 |pages=114005 |bibcode=2021ERL....16k4005L |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 |issn=1748-9326 |s2cid=239032360|doi-access=free }} No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view.{{harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Oreskes|2007|p=[https://books.google.com/books?id=PXJIqCkb7YIC&pg=PA68 68]}}; {{Harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}} Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions.Joint statement of the {{harvtxt|G8+5 Academies|2009}}; {{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}. The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.

{{clear right}}

{{reflist|22em}}

{{Free-content attribution

| title = The status of women in agrifood systems – Overview

| author = FAO

| publisher = FAO

| page numbers =

| source =

| documentURL = https://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en

| licence statement URL = https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_status_of_women_in_agrifood_systems_-_Overview.pdf

| license = CC BY-SA 3.0

}}

{{refbegin}}

Fourth Assessment Report

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year =2007

|title=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

|series=Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=S. |editor-last1=Solomon

|editor-first2=D. |editor-last2=Qin

|editor-first3=M. |editor-last3=Manning

|editor-first4=Z. |editor-last4=Chen

|editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Marquis

|editor-first6=K. B. |editor-last6=Averyt

|editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Tignor

|editor-first8=H. L. |editor-last8=Miller

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html

|isbn=978-0-521-88009-1

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007}}

|chapter=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf

|year=2007

|display-authors=4

|first1=H. |last1=Le Treut

|first2=R. |last2=Somerville

|first3=U. |last3=Cubasch

|first4=Y. |last4=Ding

|first5=C. |last5=Mauritzen

|first6=A. |last6=Mokssit

|first7=T. |last7=Peterson

|first8=M. |last8=Prather

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}

|pages=93–127

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}

|chapter=Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf

|year=2007

|display-authors=4

|first1=D. A. |last1=Randall

|first2=R. A. |last2=Wood

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|first4=R. |last4=Colman

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|first7=V. |last7=Kattsov

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|first9=J. |last9=Shukla

|first10=J. |last10=Srinivasan

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|first12=A. |last12=Sumi

|first13=K. E. |last13=Taylor

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}

|pages=589–662

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007}}

|chapter=Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf

|year=2007

|display-authors=4

|first1=G. C. |last1=Hegerl

|first2=F. W. |last2=Zwiers

|first3=P. |last3=Braconnot |author-link3=Pascale Braconnot

|first4=N. P. |last4=Gillett

|first5=Y. |last5=Luo

|first6=J. A. |last6=Marengo Orsini

|first7=N. |last7=Nicholls

|first8=J. E. |last8=Penner

|first9=P. A. |last9=Stott

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}

|pages=663–745

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year =2007

|title=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

|series=Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=M. L. |editor-last1=Parry

|editor-first2=O. F. |editor-last2=Canziani

|editor-first3=J. P. |editor-last3=Palutikof

|editor-first4=P. J. |editor-last4=van der Linden

|editor-first5=C. E. |editor-last5=Hanson

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

|isbn=978-0-521-88010-7

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007}}

|chapter=Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter19.pdf

|year=2007

|display-authors=4

|first1=S. H. |last1=Schneider

|first2=S. |last2=Semenov

|first3=A. |last3=Patwardhan

|first4=I. |last4=Burton

|first5=C. H. D. |last5=Magadza

|first6=M. |last6=Oppenheimer

|first7=A. B. |last7=Pittock

|first8=A. |last8=Rahman

|first9=J. B. |last9=Smith

|first10=A. |last10=Suarez

|first11=F. |last11=Yamin

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}

|pages=779–810

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year =2007

|title=Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change

|series=Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=B. |editor-last1=Metz

|editor-first2=O. R. |editor-last2=Davidson

|editor-first3=P. R. |editor-last3=Bosch

|editor-first4=R. |editor-last4=Dave

|editor-first5=L. A. |editor-last5=Meyer

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html

|isbn=978-0-521-88011-4

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007}}

|chapter=Chapter 1: Introduction

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter1.pdf

|year=2007

|display-authors=4

|first1=H.-H.|last1=Rogner

|first2=D. |last2=Zhou

|first3=R. |last3=Bradley

|first4=P. |last4=Crabbé

|first5=O. |last5=Edenhofer

|first6=B. |last6=Hare

|first7=L. |last7=Kuijpers

|first8=M. |last8=Yamaguchi

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}

|pages=95–116

}}

Fifth Assessment report

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2013

|title=Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

|series=Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|display-editors=4

|editor1-first=T. F. |editor1-last=Stocker

|editor2-first=D. |editor2-last=Qin

|editor3-first=G.-K. |editor3-last=Plattner

|editor4-first=M. |editor4-last=Tignor

|editor5-first=S. K. |editor5-last=Allen

|editor6-first=J. |editor6-last=Boschung

|editor7-first=A. |editor7-last=Nauels

|editor8-first=Y. |editor8-last=Xia

|editor9-first=V. |editor9-last=Bex

|editor10-first=P. M. |editor10-last=Midgley

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|place=Cambridge, UK & New York

|isbn=978-1-107-05799-9

|url=http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf

}}. [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – IPCC]

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013}}

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

|chapter-url=https://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

|year=2013

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013}}

|chapter=Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/09/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf

|year=2013

|display-authors=4

|first1=D. L. |last1=Hartmann

|first2=A. M. G. |last2=Klein Tank

|first3=M. |last3=Rusticucci

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|first14=P. M. |last14=Zhai

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|pages=159–254

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013}}

|chapter=Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter03_FINAL.pdf

|year=2013

|display-authors=4

|first1=M. |last1=Rhein

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|first14=F. |last14=Wang

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}

|pages=255–315

}}

• {{cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013}}

|chapter=Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter05_FINAL.pdf

|year=2013

|display-authors=4

|first1=V. |last1=Masson-Delmotte

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|first15=M. |last15=Rojas

|first16=X. |last16=Shao

|first17=A. |last17=Timmermann

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}

|pages=383–464

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013}}

|chapter=Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf

|year=2013

|display-authors=4

|first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff

|first2=P. A. |last2=Stott

|first3=K. M. |last3=AchutaRao

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|first7=K. |last7=Hansingo

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|first10=S. |last10=Jain

|first11=I. I. |last11=Mokhov

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|first14=R. |last14=Sebbari

|first15=X. |last15=Zhang

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}

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• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013}}

|chapter=Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf

|year=2013

|display-authors=4

|first1=M. |last1=Collins

|first2=R. |last2=Knutti

|first3=J. M. |last3=Arblaster

|first4=J.-L. |last4=Dufresne

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|first9=T. |last9=Johns

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|first11=M. |last11=Shongwe

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|first13=A. J. |last13=Weaver

|first14=M. |last14=Wehner

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|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}

}}

{{anchor|{{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2|2014}}}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2014

|title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects

|series=Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=C. B. |editor-last1=Field

|editor-first2=V. R. |editor-last2=Barros

|editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken

|editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach

|editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea

|editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir

|editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee

|editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi

|editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada

|editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova

|editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma

|editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel

|editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy

|editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken

|editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea

|editor-first16=L. L. |editor-last16=White

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|isbn=978-1-107-05807-1

|url=

}}. Chapters 1–20, SPM, and Technical Summary.

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014}}

|chapter=Chapter 13: Livelihoods and Poverty

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap13_FINAL.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=L. |last1=Olsson

|first2=M. |last2=Opondo

|first3=P. |last3=Tschakert

|first4=A. |last4=Agrawal

|first5=S. H. |last5=Eriksen

|first6=S. |last6=Ma

|first7=L. N. |last7=Perch

|first8=S. A. |last8=Zakieldeen

|year=2014

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}

|pages=793–832

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014}}

|chapter=Chapter 18: Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap18_FINAL.pdf

|year=2014

|display-authors=4

|first1=W. |last1=Cramer

|first2=G. W. |last2=Yohe

|first3=M. |last3=Auffhammer

|first4=C. |last4=Huggel

|first5=U. |last5=Molau

|first6=M. A. F. |last6=da Silva Dias

|first7=A. |last7=Solow

|first8=D. A. |last8=Stone

|first9=L. |last9=Tibig

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}

|pages=979–1037

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014}}

|chapter=Chapter 19: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap19_FINAL.pdf

|year=2014

|display-authors=4

|first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer

|first2=M. |last2=Campos

|first3=R. |last3=Warren

|first4=J. |last4=Birkmann

|first5=G. |last5=Luber

|first6=B. |last6=O'Neill

|first7=K. |last7=Takahashi

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}

|pages=1039–1099

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2014

|title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects

|series=Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=V. R. |editor-last1=Barros

|editor-first2=C. B. |editor-last2=Field

|editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken

|editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach

|editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea

|editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir

|editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee

|editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi

|editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada

|editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova

|editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma

|editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel

|editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy

|editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken

|editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea

|editor-first16=L.L |editor-last16=White

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|place=Cambridge, UK & New York

|isbn=978-1-107-05816-3

|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartB_FINAL.pdf

}}. Chapters 21–30, Annexes, and Index.

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014}}

|chapter=Chapter 28: Polar Regions

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap28_FINAL.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=J. N. |last1=Larsen

|first2=O. A. |last2=Anisimov

|first3=A. |last3=Constable

|first4=A. B. |last4=Hollowed

|first5=N. |last5=Maynard

|first6=P. |last6=Prestrud

|first7=T. D. |last7=Prowse

|first8=J. M. R.|last8=Stone

|year=2014

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}

|pages=1567–1612

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2014

|title=Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change

|series=Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=O. |editor-last1=Edenhofer

|editor-first2=R. |editor-last2=Pichs-Madruga

|editor-first3=Y. |editor-last3=Sokona

|editor-first4=E. |editor-last4=Farahani

|editor-first5=S. |editor-last5=Kadner

|editor-first6=K. |editor-last6=Seyboth

|editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Adler

|editor-first8=I. |editor-last8=Baum

|editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Brunner

|editor-first10=P. |editor-last10=Eickemeier

|editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Kriemann

|editor-first12=J. |editor-last12=Savolainen

|editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Schlömer

|editor-first14=C. |editor-last14=von Stechow

|editor-first15=T. |editor-last15=Zwickel

|editor-first16=J. C. |editor-last16=Minx

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|place=Cambridge, UK & New York, NY

|isbn= 978-1-107-05821-7

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014}}

|chapter=Chapter 9: Buildings

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter9.pdf

|year=2014

|display-authors=4

|first1=O. |last1=Lucon

|first2=D. |last2=Ürge-Vorsatz

|first3=A. |last3=Ahmed

|first4=H. |last4=Akbari

|first5=P. |last5=Bertoldi

|first6=L. |last6=Cabeza

|first7=N. |last7=Eyre

|first8=A. |last8=Gadgil

|first9=L. D. |last9=Harvey

|first10=Y. |last10=Jiang

|first11=E. |last11=Liphoto

|first12=S. |last12=Mirasgedis

|first13=S. |last13=Murakami

|first14=J. |last14=Parikh

|first15=C. |last15=Pyke

|first16=M. |last16=Vilariño

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Annex III|2014}}

|chapter=Annex III: Technology-specific Cost and Performance Parameters

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf

|year=2014

|display-authors=4

|first1=O. |last1=Edenhofer

|first2=R. |last2=Pichs-Madruga

|first3=Y. |last3=Sokona

|first4=E. |last4=Farahani

|first5=S. |last5=Kadner

|first6=K. |last6=Seyboth

|first7=A. |last7=Adler

|first8=I. |last8=Baum

|first9=S. |last9=Brunner

|first10=P. |last10=Eickemeier

|first11=B. |last11=Kriemann

|first12=J. |last12=Savolainen

|first13=S. |last13=Schlömer

|first14=C. |last14=von Stechow

|first15=T. |last15=Zwickel

|first16=J.C. |last16=Minx

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

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|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}

}}

• {{cite book

|author=IPCC AR5 SYR |author-link=IPCC

|year=2014

|title=Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report

|series=Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|editor1=The Core Writing Team

|editor-first2=R. K. |editor-last2=Pachauri

|editor-first3=L. A. |editor-last3=Meyer

|publisher=IPCC

|place=Geneva, Switzerland

|isbn=

|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014}}

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf

|year=2014

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}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014}}

|chapter=Annex II: Glossary

|chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_Annexes.pdf

|year=2014

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}}

Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 °C

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15|2018}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2018

|title=Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=V. |editor-last1=Masson-Delmotte

|editor-first2=P. |editor-last2=Zhai

|editor-first3=H.-O. |editor-last3=Pörtner

|editor-first4=D. |editor-last4=Roberts

|editor-first5=J. |editor-last5=Skea

|editor-first6=P. R. |editor-last6=Shukla

|editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Pirani

|editor-first8=W. |editor-last8=Moufouma-Okia

|editor-first9=C. |editor-last9=Péan

|editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=Pidcock

|editor-first11=S. |editor-last11=Connors

|editor-first12=J. B. R. |editor-last12=Matthews

|editor-first13=Y. |editor-last13=Chen

|editor-first14=X. |editor-last14=Zhou

|editor-first15=M. I. |editor-last15=Gomis

|editor-first16=E. |editor-last16=Lonnoy

|editor-first17=T. |editor-last17=Maycock

|editor-first18=M. |editor-last18=Tignor

|editor-first19=T. |editor-last19=Waterfeld

|publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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}} Global Warming of 1.5 °C –.

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2018

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

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|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}

|pages=3–24

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018}}

|year=2018

|chapter=Chapter 1: Framing and Context

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_High_Res.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=M. R. |last1=Allen

|first2=O. P. |last2=Dube

|first3=W. |last3=Solecki

|first4=F. |last4=Aragón-Durand

|first5=W. |last5=Cramer

|first6=S. |last6=Humphreys

|first7=M. |last7=Kainuma

|first8=J. |last8=Kala

|first9=N. |last9=Mahowald

|first10=Y. |last10=Mulugetta

|first11=R. |last11=Perez

|first12=M. |last12=Wairiu

|first13=K. |last13=Zickfeld

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}

|pages=49–91

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018}}

|year=2018

|chapter=Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5 °C in the Context of Sustainable Development

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_High_Res.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=J. |last1=Rogelj |author1-link=Joeri Rogelj

|first2=D. |last2=Shindell

|first3=K. |last3=Jiang

|first4=S. |last4=Fifta

|first5=P. |last5=Forster

|first6=V. |last6=Ginzburg

|first7=C. |last7=Handa

|first8=H. |last8=Kheshgi

|first9=S. |last9=Kobayashi

|first10=E. |last10=Kriegler

|first11=L. |last11=Mundaca

|first12=R. |last12=Séférian

|first13=M. V. |last13=Vilariño

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}

|pages=93–174

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018}}

|year=2018

|chapter=Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5 °C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_High_Res.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=O. |last1=Hoegh-Guldberg

|first2=D. |last2=Jacob

|first3=M. |last3=Taylor

|first4=M. |last4=Bindi

|first5=S. |last5=Brown

|first6=I. |last6=Camilloni

|first7=A. |last7=Diedhiou

|first8=R. |last8=Djalante

|first9=K. L. |last9=Ebi

|first10=F. |last10=Engelbrecht

|first11=J. |last11=Guiot

|first12=Y. |last12=Hijioka

|first13=S. |last13=Mehrotra

|first14=A. |last14=Payne

|first15=S. I.|last15=Seneviratne

|first16=A. |last16=Thomas

|first17=R. |last17=Warren

|first18=G. |last18=Zhou

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}

|pages=175–311

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018}}

|year=2018

|chapter=Chapter 4: Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter4_High_Res.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=H. |last1=de Coninck

|first2=A. |last2=Revi

|first3=M. |last3=Babiker

|first4=P. |last4=Bertoldi

|first5=M. |last5=Buckeridge

|first6=A. |last6=Cartwright

|first7=W. |last7=Dong

|first8=J. |last8=Ford

|first9=S. |last9=Fuss

|first10=J.-C. |last10=Hourcade

|first11=D. |last11=Ley

|first12=R. |last12=Mechler

|first13=P. |last13=Newman

|first14=A. |last14=Revokatova

|first15=S. |last15=Schultz

|first16=L. |last16=Steg

|first17=T. |last17=Sugiyama

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}

|pages=313–443

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018}}

|year=2018

|chapter=Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter5_High_Res.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=J. |last1=Roy

|first2=P. |last2=Tschakert

|first3=H. |last3=Waisman

|first4=S. |last4=Abdul Halim

|first5=P. |last5=Antwi-Agyei

|first6=P. |last6=Dasgupta

|first7=B. |last7=Hayward

|first8=M. |last8=Kanninen

|first9=D. |last9=Liverman

|first10=C. |last10=Okereke

|first11=P. F. |last11=Pinho

|first12=K. |last12=Riahi

|first13=A. G. |last13=Suarez Rodriguez

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}

|pages=445–538

}}

Special Report: Climate change and Land

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=P. R. |editor-last1=Shukla

|editor-first2=J. |editor-last2=Skea

|editor-first3=E. |editor-last3=Calvo Buendia

|editor-first4=V. |editor-last4=Masson-Delmotte

|editor-first5=H.-O. |editor-last5=Pörtner

|editor-first6=D. |editor-last6=C. Roberts

|editor-first7=P. |editor-last7=Zhai

|editor-first8=R. |editor-last8=Slade

|editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Connors

|editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=van Diemen

|editor-first11=M. |editor-last11=Ferrat

|editor-first12=E. |editor-last12=Haughey

|editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Luz

|editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=Neogi

|editor-first15=M. |editor-last15=Pathak

|editor-first16=J. |editor-last16=Petzold

|editor-first17=J. |editor-last17=Portugal Pereira

|editor-first18=P. |editor-last18=Vyas

|editor-first19=E. |editor-last19=Huntley

|editor-first20=K. |editor-last20=Kissick

|editor-first21=M. |editor-last21=Belkacemi

|editor-first22=J. |editor-last22=Malley

|year=2019

|title=IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems

|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf

|publisher=In press

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019}}

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/02_Summary-for-Policymakers_SPM.pdf

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2019

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}

|pages=3–34

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019}}

|chapter=Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/05_Chapter-2.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=G. |last1=Jia

|first2=E. |last2=Shevliakova

|first3=P. E. |last3=Artaxo

|first4=N. |last4=De Noblet-Ducoudré

|first5=R. |last5=Houghton

|first6=J. |last6=House

|first7=K. |last7=Kitajima

|first8=C. |last8=Lennard

|first9=A. |last9=Popp

|first10=A. |last10=Sirin

|first11=R. |last11=Sukumar

|first12=L. |last12=Verchot

|year=2019

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}

|pages=131–247

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019}}

|chapter=Chapter 5: Food Security

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/08_Chapter-5.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=C. |last1=Mbow

|first2=C. |last2=Rosenzweig

|first3=L. G. |last3=Barioni

|first4=T. |last4=Benton

|first5=M. |last5=Herrero

|first6=M. V. |last6=Krishnapillai

|first7=E. |last7=Liwenga

|first8=P. |last8=Pradhan

|first9=M. G. |last9=Rivera-Ferre

|first10=T. |last10=Sapkota

|first11=F. N. |last11=Tubiello

|first12=Y. |last12=Xu

|year=2019

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}

|pages=437–550

}}

Special Report: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC|2019}}

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2019

|display-editors=4

|editor-first1=H.-O. |editor-last1=Pörtner

|editor-first2=D. C. |editor-last2=Roberts

|editor-first3=V. |editor-last3=Masson-Delmotte

|editor-first4=P. |editor-last4=Zhai

|editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Tignor

|editor-first6=E. |editor-last6=Poloczanska

|editor-first7=K. |editor-last7=Mintenbeck

|editor-first8=A. |editor-last8=Alegría

|editor-first9=M. |editor-last9=Nicolai

|editor-first10=A. |editor-last10=Okem

|editor-first11=J. |editor-last11=Petzold

|editor-first12=B. |editor-last12=Rama

|editor-first13=N. |editor-last13=Weyer

|title=IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

|publisher=In press

|isbn=

|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/SROCC_FullReport_FINAL.pdf

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019}}

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/03_SROCC_SPM_FINAL.pdf

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2019

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}

|pages=3–35

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019}}

|chapter=Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer

|first2=B. |last2=Glavovic

|first3=J. |last3=Hinkel

|first4=R. |last4=van de Wal

|first5=A. K. |last5=Magnan

|first6=A. |last6=Abd-Elgawad

|first7=R. |last7=Cai

|first8=M. |last8=Cifuentes-Jara

|first9=R. M. |last9=Deconto

|first10=T. |last10=Ghosh

|first11=J. |last11=Hay

|first12=F. |last12=Isla

|first13=B. |last13=Marzeion

|first14=B. |last14=Meyssignac

|first15=Z. |last15=Sebesvari

|year=2019

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}

|pages=321–445

}}

• {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019}}

|chapter=Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/09_SROCC_Ch05_FINAL.pdf

|display-authors=4

|first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff

|first2=W. W. L. |last2=Cheung

|first3=J. G. |last3=Kairo

|first4=J. |last4=Arístegui

|first5=V. A. |last5=Guinder

|first6=R. |last6=Hallberg

|first7=N. J. M. |last7=Hilmi

|first8=N. |last8=Jiao

|first9=Md S. |last9=Karim

|first10=L. |last10=Levin

|first11=S. |last11=O'Donoghue

|first12=S. R. |last12=Purca Cuicapusa

|first13=B. |last13=Rinkevich

|first14=T. |last14=Suga

|first15=A. |last15=Tagliabue

|first16=P. |last16=Williamson

|year=2019

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}

|pages=447–587

}}

Sixth Assessment Report

• {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}

|author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC

|year= 2021

|title= Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

|series= Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|display-editors= 4

|editor1-first=V. |editor1-last=Masson-Delmotte

|editor2-first=P. |editor2-last=Zhai

|editor3-first=A. |editor3-last=Pirani

|editor4-first=S. L. |editor4-last=Connors

|editor5-first=C. |editor5-last=Péan

|editor6-first=S. |editor6-last=Berger

|editor7-first=N. |editor7-last=Caud

|editor8-first=Y. |editor8-last=Chen

|editor9-first=L. |editor9-last=Goldfarb

|editor10-first=M. I. |editor10-last=Gomis

|publisher=Cambridge University Press (In Press)

|place=Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US

|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport_small.pdf

}}

• {{Cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021}}

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf

|author=IPCC |author-link= IPCC

|year=2021

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}

}}

• {{Cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021}}

|chapter=Technical Summary

|last1=Arias |first1=Paola A.

|last2=Bellouin |first2=Nicolas

|last3=Coppola |first3=Erika

|last4=Jones |first4=Richard G.

|last5=Krinner |first5=Gerhard

|display-authors=4

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf

|year=2021

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch2|2021}}

|chapter=Chapter 2: Changing state of the climate system

|last1 = Gulev| first1 = Sergey K.| last2 = Thorne| first2 = Peter W.| last3 = Ahn| first3 = Jinho| last4 = Dentener| first4 = Frank J.| last5 = Domingues| first5 = Catia M.| last6 = Gerland| first6 = Sebastian| last7 = Gong| first7 = Daoyi| last8 = Kaufman| first8 = Darrell S.| last9 = Nnamchi| first9 = Hyacinth C.| last10 = Quaas| first10 = Johannes| last11 = Rivera| first11 = Juan Antonio| last12 = Sathyendranath| first12 = Shubha| last13 = Smith| first13 = Sharon L.| last14 = Trewin| first14 = Blair| last15 = von Shuckmann| first15 = Karina| last16 = Vose| first16 = Russell S.

|title = Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_02.pdf

|display-authors=4

|year=2021

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4|2021}}

|chapter=Chapter 4: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information

|last1 = Lee | first1 = June-Yi | last2 = Marotzke | first2 = Jochem | last3 = Bala | first3 = Govindasamy | last4 = Cao | first4 = Long | last5 = Corti | first5 = Susanna | last6 = Dunne | first6 = John P. | last7 = Engelbrecht | first7 = Francois | last8 = Fischer | first8 = Erich M. | last9 = Fyfe | first9 = John C. | last10 = Jones | first10 = Christopher D. | last11 = Maycock | first11 = Amanda C. | last12 = Mutemi | first12 = Joseph | last13 = Ndiaye | first13 = Ousmane | last14 = Panickal | first14 = Swapna | last15 = Zhou | first15 = Tianjun

|title = Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|chapter-url = https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-4/

|display-authors=4

|year=2021

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch5|2021}}

|chapter=Chapter 5: Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

|last1 = Canadell | first1 = Josep G. | last2 = Monteiro | first2 = Pedro M.S. | last3 = Costa | first3 = Marcos H. | last4 = Cotrim da Cunha | first4 = Leticia | last5 = Cox | first5 = Peter | last6 = Eliseev | first6 = Alexey V. | last7 = Ghattas | first7 = Julia | last8 = Ishii | first8 = Masao | last9 = Joos | first9 = Fortunat | last10 = Lenton | first10 = Timothy M. | last11 = Patra | first11 = Prabir K. | last12 = Scholes | first12 = Mary | last13 = Shrestha | first13 = Rajan K. | last14 = Tjiputra | first14 = Jerry | last15 = Zaehle | first15 = Sönke

|title = Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-5/

|display-authors=4

|year=2021

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11|2021}}

|chapter=Chapter 11: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate

|last1=Seneviratne |first1=Sonia I.

|last2=Zhang |first2=Xuebin

|last3=Adnan |first3=M.

|last4=Badi |first4=W.

|last5=Dereczynski |first5=Claudine

|last6=Di Luca |first6=Alejandro

|last7=Ghosh |first7=S.

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.pdf

|display-authors=4

|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}

|year=2021

}}

• {{cite book

|author=IPCC

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}

|editor-last1=Pörtner |editor-first1=H.-O.

|editor-last2=Roberts |editor-first2=D.C.

|editor-last3=Tignor |editor-first3=M.

|editor-last4=Poloczanska |editor-first4=E.S.

|editor-last5=Mintenbeck |editor-first5=K.

|editor-last6=Alegría |editor-first6=A.

|editor-last7=Craig |editor-first7=M.

|editor-last8=Langsdorf |editor-first8=S.

|editor-last9=Löschke |editor-first9=S.

|editor-last10=Möller |editor-first10=V.

|editor-last11=Okem |editor-first11=A.

|editor-last12=Rama |editor-first12=B.

|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/

|title=Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|year=2022

|doi=10.1017/9781009325844|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 SPM|2022}}

|author=IPCC

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf

|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}

|year=2022

|pages=3–33

|doi=10.1017/9781009325844.001

|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 Technical Summary|2022}}

|author=IPCC

|chapter=Technical Summary

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf

|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}

|year=2022

|pages=37–118

|doi=10.1017/9781009325844.002

|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch5|2022}}

|chapter=Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter05.pdf

|last1=Bezner Kerr |first1=R.

|last2=Hasegawa |first2=T.

|last3=Lasco |first3=R.

|last4=Bhatt |first4=I.

|last5=Deryng |first5=D.

|last6=Farrell |first6=A.

|last7=Gurney-Smith |first7=H.

|last8=Ju |first8=H.

|last9=Lluch-Cota |first9=S.

|last10=Meza |first10=F.

|last11=Nelson |first11=G.

|last12=Neufeldt |first12=H.

|last13=Thornton |first13=P.

|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}

|year=2022

|pages=713–906

|doi=10.1017/9781009325844.007

|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch6|2022}}

|chapter=Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter06.pdf

|last1=Dodman |first1=D.

|last2=Hayward |first2=B.

|last3=Pelling |first3=M.

|last4=Castan Broto |first4=V.

|last5=Chow |first5=W.

|last6=Chu |first6=E.

|last7=Dawson |first7=R.

|last8=Khirfan |first8=L.

|last9=McPhearson |first9=T.

|last10=Prakash |first10=A.

|last11=Zheng |first11=Y.

|last12=Ziervogel |first12=G.

|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}

|year=2022

|pages=907–1040

|doi=10.1017/9781009325844.008

|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch16|2022}}

|chapter=Key Risks across Sectors and Regions

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter16.pdf

|last1=O'Neill |first1=B.

|last2=van Aalst |first2=M.

|last3=Zaiton Ibrahim |first3=Z.

|last4=Berrang Ford |first4=L.

|last5=Bhadwal |first5=S.

|last6=Buhaug |first6=H.

|last7=Diaz |first7=D.

|last8=Frieler |first8=K.

|last9=Garschagen |first9=M.

|last10=Magnan |first10=A.

|last11=Midgley |first11=G.

|last12=Mirzabaev |first12=A.

|last13=Thomas |first13=A.

|last14=Warren |first14=R.

|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}

|year=2022

|pages=2411–2538

|doi=10.1017/9781009325844.025

|isbn=978-1-009-32584-4

}}

• {{cite book

|author=IPCC

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022}}

|editor-last1=Shukla |editor-first1=P.R.

|editor-last2=Skea |editor-first2=J.

|display-editors=etal

|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/

|title=Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|publisher=Cambridge University Press

|year=2022

|location=Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA

|doi=10.1017/9781009157926|isbn=978-1-009-15792-6

}}

• {{Cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022}}

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2022

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022}}

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Technical Summary|2022}}

|chapter=Technical Summary

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_TechnicalSummary.pdf

|last1=Pathak |first1=M.

|last2=Slade |first2=R.

|last3=Shukla |first3=P.R.

|last4=Skea |first4=J.

|last5=Pichs-Madruga |first5=R.

|last6=Ürge-Vorsatz |first6=D.

|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022}}

|year=2022

|pages=51–148

|doi=10.1017/9781009157926.002

|isbn=978-1-009-15792-6

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch3|2022}}

|chapter=Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-term Goals

|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter03.pdf

|last1=Riahi |first1=K.

|last2=Schaeffer |first2=R.

|last3=Arango |first3=J.

|last4=Calvin |first4=K.

|last5=Guivarch |first5=C.

|last6=Hasegawa |first6=T.

|last7=Jiang |first7=K.

|last8=Kriegler |first8=E.

|last9=Matthews |first9=R.

|last10=Peters |first10=G.P.

|last11=Rao |first11=A.

|last12=Robertson |first12=S.

|last13=Sebbit |first13=A.M.

|last14=Steinberger |first14=J.

|last15=Tavoni |first15=M.

|last16=van Vuuren |first16=D.P.

|title= {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022}}

|year=2022

|pages=295–408

|doi=10.1017/9781009157926.005

|isbn=978-1-009-15792-6

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch14|2022}}

|chapter=Chapter 14: International Cooperation

|last1 = Patt | first1 = Anthony | last2 = Rajamani | first2 = Lavanya | last3 = Bhandari | first3 = Preety | last4 = Caparrós | first4 = Alejandro | last5 = Djemouai | first5 = Kamal | last6 = Ivanova Boncheva | first6 = Antonina | last7 = Kubota | first7 = Izumi | last8 = Peel | first8 = Jacqueline | last9 = Sari | first9 = Agus Pratama | last10 = Sprinz | first10 = Detlef F. | last11 = Wettestad | first11 = Jørgen | last12 = Badiola | first12 = Esther | last13 = Carruthers | first13 = Pasha

|title = Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/chapter-14/

|display-authors=4

|year=2022

}}

• {{cite book

|author=IPCC |title=Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

|author-link=IPCC

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 SYR|2023}}

|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf

|editor-last1=Core Writing Team |editor-last2=Lee |editor-first2=H.

|editor-last3=Romero |editor-first3=J.

|display-editors=etal

|publisher=IPCC

|year=2023

|location=Geneva, Switzerland

|isbn=978-92-9169-164-7

|doi=10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647

|hdl=1885/299630

|s2cid=260074696

}}

• {{Cite book

|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 SYR SPM|2023}}

|chapter=Summary for Policymakers

|chapter-url=https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

|author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC

|year=2023

|title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 SYR|2023}}

}}

{{refend}}

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• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 21 November|2017}} |last=Yeo |first=Sophie |date=21 November 2017 |title=Explainer: Why a UN climate deal on HFCs matters |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-why-a-un-climate-deal-on-hfcs-matters |access-date=10 January 2021 |url-status=live |website=Carbon Brief |archive-date=1 May 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240501225407/https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-why-a-un-climate-deal-on-hfcs-matters/}}
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• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}} |date=19 April 2018 |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke |title=Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change |website=Carbon Brief |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change |access-date=20 July 2019}}
• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}} |date=8 October 2018 |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke |title=Analysis: Why the IPCC 1.5C report expanded the carbon budget |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-the-ipcc-1-5c-report-expanded-the-carbon-budget |access-date=28 July 2020 |website=Carbon Brief}}
• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}} |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/media-reaction-australias-bushfires-and-climate-change |title=Media reaction: Australia's bushfires and climate change |last1=Dunne |first1=Daisy |last2=Gabbatiss |first2=Josh |last3=McSweeney |first3=Robert |date=7 January 2020 |website=Carbon Brief |access-date=11 January 2020}}
• {{cite web |ref={{Harvid|Carbon Brief, 10 February|2020}} |last=McSweeney |first=Robert |title=Nine Tipping Points That Could Be Triggered by Climate Change |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change/ |website=Carbon Brief | date=10 February 2020 |access-date=27 May 2022 |archive-date=7 October 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241007002119/https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change/ |url-status=live}}
• {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 16 October|2021}} |last1=Gabbatiss|first1=Josh|last2=Tandon|first2=Ayesha|date=4 October 2021|title=In-depth Q&A: What is 'climate justice'?|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-what-is-climate-justice|access-date=16 October 2021|website=Carbon Brief|language=en}}
• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 3 July|2023}} |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/ |title=Analysis: How low-sulphur shipping rules are affecting global warming |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke |last2=Forster |first2=Piers |author-link2=Piers Forster |date=3 July 2023 |website=Carbon Brief |access-date=2 November 2024}}
• Climate.gov
• {{Cite web |ref={{harvid|Climate.gov, 23 June|2022}} |last=Lindsey |first=Rebecca |title=Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide |website=Climate.gov |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide |date=23 June 2022 |access-date=7 May 2023}}
• Deutsche Welle
• {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}} |last1=Ruiz |first1=Irene Banos |title=Climate Action: Can We Change the Climate From the Grassroots Up? |url=https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-action-grassroots-2638915946.html |access-date=23 June 2019 |publisher=Deutsche Welle |date=22 June 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190623124154/https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-action-grassroots-2638915946.html |archive-date=23 June 2019 |url-status=live}}
• EPA
• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2016}} |title=Myths vs. Facts: Denial of Petitions for Reconsideration of the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act |publisher=U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |date=10 September 2020 |url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/myths-vs-facts-denial-petitions-reconsideration-endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute |access-date=7 August 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210523211147/https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/myths-vs-facts-denial-petitions-reconsideration-endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute |archive-date=23 May 2021}}
• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2019}} |url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data |title=Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data |publisher=U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |date=10 September 2024 |access-date=8 August 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200218125157/https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data |archive-date=18 February 2020 |url-status=live}}
• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2020}} |url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases |title=Overview of Greenhouse Gases |publisher=U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |date=11 April 2024 |access-date=15 September 2020 |archive-date=9 October 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241009203854/https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases}}
• EUobserver
• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}} |date=20 December 2009 |title=Copenhagen failure 'disappointing', 'shameful' |website=EUobserver |access-date=12 April 2019 |url=https://euobserver.com/environment/29181 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190412092312/https://euobserver.com/environment/29181 |archive-date=12 April 2019 |url-status=live}}
• European Parliament
• {{cite web |ref={{harvid|European Parliament, February|2020}} |date=February 2020 |first=M. |last=Ciucci |title=Renewable Energy |website=European Parliament |url=https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/70/renewable-energy |access-date=3 June 2020}}
• The Guardian
  • {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}} |last=Carrington |first=Damian |date=19 March 2019 |title=School climate strikes: 1.4 million people took part, say campaigners |newspaper=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/19/school-climate-strikes-more-than-1-million-took-part-say-campaigners-greta-thunberg |access-date=12 April 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190320122303/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/19/school-climate-strikes-more-than-1-million-took-part-say-campaigners-greta-thunberg |archive-date=20 March 2019 |url-status=live}}
  • {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}} |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/28/eu-parliament-declares-climate-emergency |title='Our house is on fire': EU parliament declares climate emergency |last=Rankin |first=Jennifer |date=28 November 2019 |work=The Guardian |access-date=28 November 2019 |issn=0261-3077}}
  • {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}} |last=Watts |first=Jonathan |date=19 February 2020 |title=Oil and gas firms 'have had far worse climate impact than thought' |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/19/oil-gas-industry-far-worse-climate-impact-than-thought-fossil-fuels-methane |newspaper=The Guardian}}
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}} |date=28 October 2020 |last=McCurry |first=Justin |title=South Korea vows to go carbon neutral by 2050 to fight climate emergency |url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/28/south-korea-vows-to-go-carbon-neutral-by-2050-to-fight-climate-emergency |access-date=6 December 2020 |work=The Guardian}}
  • International Energy Agency
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|IEA – Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020}} |title=Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020 |website=IEA |date=9 December 2020 |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/projected-costs-of-generating-electricity-2020 |access-date=4 April 2022}}
  • NASA
  • {{cite news |ref={{harvid|NASA, 28 May|2013}} |year=2013 |title=Arctic amplification |publisher=NASA |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/news/927/arctic-amplification |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180731054007/https://climate.nasa.gov/news/927/arctic-amplification/ |archive-date=31 July 2018 |url-status=live}}
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NASA, 5 December|2008}} |date=5 December 2008 |last=Conway |first=Erik M. |author-link=Erik M. Conway |title=What's in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change |publisher=NASA |url=http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100809221926/http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html |archive-date=9 August 2010}}
  • {{cite web |date=January 2016 |last1=Shaftel |first1=Holly |title=What's in a name? Weather, global warming and climate change |website=NASA Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming |access-date=12 October 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180928145703/https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming/ |archive-date=28 September 2018 |url-status=dead}}
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  • National Conference of State Legislators
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}} |date=17 April 2020 |title=State Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals |website=National Conference of State Legislators |url=https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx |access-date=3 June 2020}}
  • National Geographic
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}} |last=Welch |first=Craig |url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/arctic-permafrost-is-thawing-it-could-speed-up-climate-change-feature/ |archive-url=https://archive.today/20190814144104/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/arctic-permafrost-is-thawing-it-could-speed-up-climate-change-feature/ |url-status=dead |archive-date=14 August 2019 |title=Arctic permafrost is thawing fast. That affects us all. |date=13 August 2019 |website=National Geographic |access-date=25 August 2019}}
  • National Science Digital Library
  • {{cite web |first=James R. |last=Fleming |title=Climate Change and Anthropogenic Greenhouse Warming: A Selection of Key Articles, 1824–1995, with Interpretive Essays |website=National Science Digital Library Project Archive PALE:ClassicArticles |date=17 March 2008 |url=http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming.html |access-date=7 October 2019}}
  • Natural Resources Defense Council
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}} |date=29 September 2017 |title=What Is the Clean Power Plan? |website=Natural Resources Defense Council |url=https://www.nrdc.org/stories/how-clean-power-plan-works-and-why-it-matters |access-date=3 August 2020}}
  • The New York Times
  • {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}} |title=Paris Can't Be Another Copenhagen |work=The New York Times |last=Rudd |first=Kevin |date=25 May 2015 |access-date=26 May 2015 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/26/opinion/kevin-rudd-paris-cant-be-another-copenhagen.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180203110636/https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/26/opinion/kevin-rudd-paris-cant-be-another-copenhagen.html |archive-date=3 February 2018 |url-status=live}}
  • NOAA
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NOAA, 10 July|2011}} |date=10 July 2011 |author=NOAA |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/polar-opposites-arctic-and-antarctic |title=Polar Opposites: the Arctic and Antarctic |access-date=20 February 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190222152103/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/polar-opposites-arctic-and-antarctic |archive-date=22 February 2019 |url-status=live}}
  • {{cite web |first=Amara |last=Huddleston |title=Happy 200th birthday to Eunice Foote, hidden climate science pioneer |website=NOAA Climate.gov |date=17 July 2019 |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/happy-200th-birthday-eunice-foote-hidden-climate-science-pioneer |access-date=8 October 2019}}
  • Our World in Data
  • {{cite journal |date=15 January 2018 |last1=Ritchie |first1=Hannah |author1-link=Hannah Ritchie |last2=Roser |first2=Max |author2-link=Max Roser |title=Land Use |journal=Our World in Data |url=https://ourworldindata.org/land-use |access-date=1 December 2019}}
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  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}} |date=2022 |last1=Roser |first1=Max |title=Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? |website=Our World in Data |url=https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth |access-date=4 April 2022}}
  • Pew Research Center
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Pew|2020}} |first1=Moira

  |last1=Fagan |first2=Christine |last2=Huang |publisher=Pew Research Center |date=16 October 2020 |title=Many globally are as concerned about climate change as about the spread of infectious diseases |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/16/many-globally-are-as-concerned-about-climate-change-as-about-the-spread-of-infectious-diseases/ |access-date=19 August 2021}}

  • Politico
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Politico, 11 December|2019}} |url=https://www.politico.eu/article/the-commissions-green-deal-plan-unveiled/ |title=Europe's Green Deal plan unveiled |last1=Tamma |first1=Paola |last2=Schaart |first2=Eline |date=11 December 2019 |website=Politico |access-date=29 December 2019 |last3=Gurzu |first3=Anca}}
  • RIVM
  • {{cite AV media |ref={{harvid|RIVM|2016}} |date=11 October 2016 |title=Documentary Sea Blind |medium=Dutch Television |language=nl |url=http://www.rivm.nl/en/Documents_and_publications/Common_and_Present/Newsmessages/2016/Documentary_Sea_Blind_on_Dutch_Television |access-date=26 February 2019 |publisher=RIVM: Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180817055817/https://www.rivm.nl/en/Documents_and_publications/Common_and_Present/Newsmessages/2016/Documentary_Sea_Blind_on_Dutch_Television |archive-date=17 August 2018 |url-status=live}}
  • Salon
  • {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Salon, 25 September|2019}} |first=Evelyn |last=Leopold |title=How leaders planned to avert climate catastrophe at the UN (while Trump hung out in the basement) |url=https://www.salon.com/2019/09/25/how-serious-people-planned-to-avert-climate-catastrophe-at-the-un-while-trump-hung-out-in-the-basement_partner/ |date=25 September 2019 |website=Salon |access-date=20 November 2019}}
  • ScienceBlogs
  • {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Gleick, 7 January|2017}} |last1=Gleick |first1=Peter |title=Statements on Climate Change from Major Scientific Academies, Societies, and Associations (January 2017 update) |date=7 January 2017 |access-date=2 April 2020 |url=https://scienceblogs.com/significantfigures/index.php/2017/01/07/statements-on-climate-change-from-major-scientific-academies-societies-and-associations-january-2017-update |work=ScienceBlogs}}
  • Scientific American
  • {{cite magazine |ref={{harvid|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}} |title=Indian Monsoons Are Becoming More Extreme |last=Ogburn |first=Stephanie Paige |date=29 April 2014 |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/ |magazine=Scientific American |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622193126/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/ |archive-date=22 June 2018 |url-status=live}}
  • Smithsonian
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}} |url=https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/studying-climate-past-essential-preparing-todays-rapidly-changing-climate-180959595/ |title=Studying the Climate of the Past Is Essential for Preparing for Today's Rapidly Changing Climate |last=Wing |first=Scott L. |website=Smithsonian |access-date=8 November 2019 |date=29 June 2016}}
  • The Sustainability Consortium
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}} |website=The Sustainability Consortium |date=13 September 2018 |url=https://www.sustainabilityconsortium.org/2018/09/one-fourth-of-global-forest-loss-permanent-deforestation-is-not-slowing-down/ |title=One-Fourth of Global Forest Loss Permanent: Deforestation Is Not Slowing Down |access-date=1 December 2019}}
  • UNFCCC
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}} |title=What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences? |website=UNFCCC |access-date=12 May 2019 |url=https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190512084017/https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences |archive-date=12 May 2019 |url-status=live}}
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}} |title=What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? |website=UNFCCC |url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change}}
  • Union of Concerned Scientists
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}} |date=8 January 2017 |title=Carbon Pricing 101 |website=Union of Concerned Scientists |url=https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/carbon-pricing-101 |access-date=15 May 2020}}
  • Vice
  • {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Vice, 2 May|2019}} |website=Vice |last1=Segalov |first1=Michael |title=The UK Has Declared a Climate Emergency: What Now? |url=https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/evyxyn/uk-climate-emergency-what-does-it-mean |access-date=30 June 2019 |date=2 May 2019}}
  • The Verge
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Verge, 27 December|2019}} |title=2019 was the year of 'climate emergency' declarations |last=Calma |first=Justine |date=27 December 2019 |website=The Verge |url=https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/27/21038949/climate-change-2019-emergency-declaration |access-date=28 March 2020}}
  • Vox
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Vox, 20 September|2019}} |last1=Roberts |first1=D. |date=20 September 2019 |title=Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap? |website=Vox |url=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity |access-date=28 May 2020}}
  • World Health Organization
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|WHO, Nov|2023}} |date=3 November 2023 |title=We must fight one of the world's biggest health threats: climate change |website=World Health Organization |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/we-must-fight-one-of-the-world-s-biggest-health-threats-climate-change |access-date=19 September 2024}}
  • World Resources Institute
  • {{cite journal |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}} |date=8 August 2019 |last1=Levin |first1=Kelly |title=How Effective Is Land At Removing Carbon Pollution? The IPCC Weighs In |website=World Resources institute |url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/how-effective-land-removing-carbon-pollution-ipcc-weighs |access-date=15 May 2020}}
  • {{cite journal |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}} |date=8 December 2019 |first1=Frances |last1=Seymour |first2=David |last2=Gibbs |title=Forests in the IPCC Special Report on Land Use: 7 Things to Know |url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/forests-ipcc-special-report-land-use-7-things-know/ |website=World Resources Institute}}
  • Yale Climate Connections
  • {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}} |title=Yale Researcher Anthony Leiserowitz on Studying, Communicating with American Public |date=2 November 2010 |last=Peach |first=Sara |publisher=Yale Climate Connections |access-date=30 July 2018 |url=https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190207130823/https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public/ |archive-date=7 February 2019 |url-status=live}}

  {{refend}}

{{Spoken Wikipedia|date=30 October 2021|En-Climate_change-article.ogg}}

{{Scholia}}

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• [https://www.ipcc.ch/ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: IPCC] (IPCC)
• [https://www.un.org/en/climatechange UN: Climate Change] (UN)
• [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide Met Office: Climate Guide] (Met Office)
• [https://www.noaa.gov/climate National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Climate] (NOAA)

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